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Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve, is sworn in to testify during his Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs confirmation hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on April 21, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Credit: Andrew Harnik / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Kevin Warsh’s record shows a former crisis-era Fed hawk who now appears more open to rate cuts, creating uncertainty about how he would balance inflation risks with President Trump’s push for lower interest rates.
• His long-standing skepticism of quantitative easing and forward guidance suggests he may favor a smaller Fed balance sheet and less predictable policy communication, with potential consequences for markets and mortgage rates.

Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Federal Reserve, left a long track record when he served as Fed governor from 2006 to 2011.

Not all of that history is instructive for gauging his views today. Warsh was a hawk after the 2008 financial crisis, supporting the Fed’s extraordinary moves to halt the panic but arguing for a quicker removal once fears eased.

In recent years, he’s adopted a more dovish tone—aligning with Trump’s view that interest rates should be lower. It's a dichotomy market analysts will watch closely if Warsh is confirmed to a four-year term as Fed chair. Sen. Thom Tillis has pledged to block the nomination in committee until the Department of Justice ends its criminal probe of current Fed chair Jerome Powell, who has said he will stay on as chair until the matter is resolved.

“We do believe Warsh will likely be a proponent of rate cuts in 2026, but the main question is whether his former hawkish persona makes a comeback down the road,” wrote Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.

Why This Matters

Kevin Warsh’s leadership could influence interest rates, mortgage costs, and market stability for years to come.

There are consistent themes in Warsh’s years of speeches and remarks at Federal Open Market Committee meetings—where, at 35, he was the youngest member ever when he joined. They’ll come up as the Senate weighs whether to approve Trump’s nomination of Warsh, who was an economic adviser to President George W. Bush before joining the Fed in 2006.

Warsh, now a fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution, has long been critical of the Fed’s growing footprint in bond markets. It’s a view that clashes with the Fed’s current approach—despite paring back its pandemic-era bond purchases, the central bank's balance sheet stood at about $6.7 trillion as of mid-April 2026. Further unwinding could raise mortgage rates, analysts say.

Warsh has long worried about inflation, which didn’t pose a problem after the crisis as he warned, but did surge a decade later. 

And he has also shown a pragmatic streak. The former Morgan Stanley banker and lawyer gave the economist-heavy Fed insights into markets during the depths of the crisis—and voted for a few policies he disagreed with to show consensus.

Smaller Balance Sheet?

Warsh was a skeptic of the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, in which the Fed bought large amounts of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

The goal was to bring down long-term interest rates such as mortgage rates, after the Fed's cut to short-term rates to near zero in 2008 proved insufficient to revive the economy. He was particularly critical of QE2, the second leg of the effort in November 2010, where the Fed bought $600 billion in bonds. 

The risks of the Fed’s intervention were “unknown, uncertain, and potentially large,” he said at the FOMC’s November 2010 meeting, all while the benefits seemed “small and fleeting.” He blamed the sluggish recovery on “fiscal, regulatory and trade policies” that were “unfriendly to economic growth.”

His skepticism continued long after his Fed days. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed in November 2025, Warsh said the Fed’s balance sheet was “bloated” and could “be reduced significantly.”

But unwinding it could bring “unpleasant consequences for mortgage rates,” wrote Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Making homebuying more expensive would be at odds with Trump’s desire to bring rates down.

And it would require significant changes in how the Fed conducts monetary policy and oversees banks in the post-2008 era, wrote Joseph Abate, a strategist at SMBC Capital Markets.

“Wanting a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet is very different from practically achieving one,” Abate wrote.

For his part, Warsh noted the risks of exiting QE too swiftly in January 2010, even if he noted he’d personally be “thrilled” to rid the Fed of its bond purchases. An abrupt exit would make Fed policy seem “confused and confusing,” he said. 

Forward Guidance

Not that confusion is necessarily unhealthy in his view—Warsh has long said the Fed can tend to give a bit too much guidance to markets.

“We need to wean the markets from the degree of certainty that we no longer possess,” Warsh said after a Fed rate hike in 2006.

He sent a similar message in April 2025, saying in a speech that Fed officials would be “well-served to skip opportunities to share their latest musings.” Otherwise, he warned, policymakers “can become prisoners of their own words.”

He sent a similar message in an April 2025 speech at the IMF Spring Meetings, warning that once policymakers reveal their economic forecasts, they "can become prisoners of their own words." He reiterated the theme in a November 2025 Wall Street Journal op-ed, writing that Fed leaders "would be well-served to skip opportunities to share their latest musings."

He’s also criticized the Fed for “breathlessly awaiting” month-old, revision-prone data to make its decisions, saying the Fed “should care little about two numbers to the right of the decimal point in the latest government release.”

Warsh’s repeated focus on the issue could shape the Fed’s policy approach going forward, wrote Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tom Porcelli. Powell has been known for “insurance cuts” — lowering rates slightly to get ahead of brewing risks in economic data. But those might now become less common, Porcelli wrote.

“Under this framework, inflection points may become less frequent but more seismic at times when the Chair attempts to change course,” he wrote.

Warsh's push for lower rates will meet a less hospitable inflation backdrop than when he was nominated. Consumer prices rose at a 3.3% annual pace in March, the highest reading in nearly two years, as the Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs.

Reaching Consensus

Despite Trump’s hopes of lower rates, any decisions will need to be approved by the 19-member FOMC, where consensus is key.

It’s an institutional feature that Warsh understands, having voted for the Fed’s bond-buying programs despite his personal disagreements. When officials signed off on the QE2 program, Warsh told then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke that if he were chair, he “would not be leading the Committee in this direction.” But he also explained why he didn’t dissent.

“My respect for you during this last four and a half years is incredibly high,” Warsh said. “I am awed by the burdens that you are confronting, and I wouldn’t want to undermine at this important moment the chance that this program could be successful.”

Warsh resigned from the Fed shortly after.

Warsh enters an FOMC with significant division. Some more hawkish officials have disagreed with the Fed’s rate cuts, while a couple of Trump appointees have supported more aggressive action.

The FOMC's decisions in 2025 drew dissenting votes in both directions, but Powell nonetheless steered the committee toward three quarter-point cuts between September and December, a test of consensus-building Warsh would need with an even more divided committee.

“Criticize Powell as much as you like (and yes, we have been critical of him at times), but he is one heck of a consensus builder, carefully crafting and selling his message to members ahead of meetings,” Wells Fargo’s Porcelli wrote. “This will be critical for Warsh.”

Spirit Airlines in August filed for bankruptcy, its second such declaration since 2024.
Credit: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Spirit Airlines is reportedly in talks with the Trump administration about financial support that could involve an equity stake as the airline struggles to adapt to soaring jet fuel prices.
• A stake in the budget carrier would be a departure from the other investment deals reached by Trump administration, which have targeted companies operating in niches deemed vital to national security.

The Trump White House's investment portfolio runs the gamut of vital industries: mining, steel, semiconductors. Could an airline be next?

The Trump administration is reportedly discussing an equity investment in Spirit Airlines (FLYYQ) as a lifeline to the beleaguered discount carrier. The talks were first reported by The Air Current late last week, and other major news outlets have followed up with reports of their own. Spirit Airlines did not respond to a request for comment.

Florida-based Spirit is reportedly running out of cash due to a spike in jet fuel prices stemming from the war in Iran. The average price of a barrel of jet fuel doubled in March after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the war. Spirit has filed for bankruptcy twice since 2024, most recently in August, when the company committed to a comprehensive restructuring. 

In an interview Tuesday on CNBC, Trump indicated that the government could provide assistance. "Spirit's in trouble, and I'd love somebody to buy Spirit. It's 14,000 jobs, and maybe the federal government should help that one out," Trump said.

Why This Is Important

The Trump administration's hands-on approach to industrial policy has concerned some onlookers worried the government is picking corporate winners and losers, corrupting the free-market economy and setting a dangerous precedent. Talks between administration officials and Spirit, an airline with no discernible bearing on national security, could amplify that criticism and send an accommodative signal to corporate America.

Since returning to the White House in January 2025, President Donald Trump and his administration have taken an unusually hands-on approach to industrial policy. In June, Trump approved Japan-based Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel in exchange for a golden share that gives the federal government a say in major strategic decisions. 

The administration has since taken things a step further, taking equity stakes in public and private companies operating in industries deemed critical to national security. In July, the defense department invested $400 million in MP Materials (MP), “America’s only fully integrated rare earth producer,” to “accelerate the build-out of an end-to-end U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain and reduce foreign dependency.”

The MP Materials deal came months after China, where the vast majority of the world’s rare earth minerals are produced and processed, imposed export restrictions on the minerals in response to Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Rare earth minerals and magnets are critical to technologies used in the defense, energy, and automotive sectors. 

The Trump administration has since expanded its support of domestic mining projects by striking similar deals with Vulcan Materials (VMC), ReElement Technologies, USA Rare Earth (USAR), Lithium Americas (LAC) and Trilogy Metals (TMQ). 

The possible investment in Spirit resembles most closely the government’s agreement with chip maker Intel (INTC), which in August agreed to let the White House convert nearly $9 billion of CHIPS Act loans and grants into an approximately 10% equity stake in the company. 

Intel was in dire straits when it made its deal with Washington. The company struggled for years to find customers for its chip fabrication business. Technological setbacks and high costs prevented it from seriously challenging East Asian competitors like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) and Samsung, which manufacture nearly all of the advanced semiconductors required to train and operate artificial intelligence. 

Intel’s future looks much brighter now that it has government backing. The company has been looped in as a partner on Tesla’s (TSLA) Terafab project, received a $5 billion investment from AI kingmaker Nvidia (NVDA) and doubled down on its foundry business. 

A government investment in Spirit would be quite different from the administration’s other deals, which targeted companies with unique capabilities in industries seen as vital to national security. Airlines aren’t strangers to government support—the U.S. spent billions keeping airlines afloat during Covid-19 lockdowns—but the assumption in boardrooms is that only the most successful airlines will win a bailout in a crisis. 

“There are times that governments will let two or three airlines fail if there’s a crisis because they don’t think they’re going to need all the airlines,” United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby reportedly told employees in 2022. “It’s the old bear analogy,” he added, “you want to be faster than the other guy.”

Spirit’s low-cost competitors not in bankruptcy proceedings include Frontier Airlines (ULCC) and Allegiant (ALGT). Larger carriers have also stepped up their competition with Spirit, positioning themselves to fill the gap if the airline fails.

JPMorgan's bull-case scenario for the S&P 500 has the index hitting 8000.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan's latest target upgrade for the benchmark S&P 500 is based on higher earnings expectations, with AI back in the driver's seat.
• If geopolitical tensions ease quickly, JPMorgan sees the S&P 500 jumping to 8000—matching Wall Street's most bullish 2026 target.

Earnings could drive stocks to fresh records this year—even more so, according to JPMorgan, if valuations get richer, too.

The bank on Tuesday raised its year-end price target on the S&P 500 from 7200 to 7600, saying the upgrade was "driven entirely by higher earnings." That implies upside of over 5% from recent levels, but the firm's "blue sky" scenario—in which geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are resolved quickly—assumes valuations will expand too, driving the S&P to 8000. That matches Wall Street's highest 2026 year end forecast—Deutsche Bank's, according to Yardeni Research.

The average Wall Street price target as of April, not accounting for JPMorgan's latest upgrade, was 7459, according to Yardeni. (The index is currently around 7100. Read Investopedia's live coverage of today's trading here.)

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Wall Street firms have started to validate the market's recent recovery rally, which has driven broad market indexes to record highs.

The firm's global equity strategy team led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said that AI and tech will be the main driver for S&P earnings this year as investor enthusiasm for the theme returns—a glimpse of which has been seen recently in Allbirds' (BIRD) surge and the Magnificent 7-led market rally.

JPMorgan's new target is underpinned by the firm's boosting its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate for the S&P to $330, above consensus estimates of $325. AI capital expenditures and tech company spending, broadly, will likely be a key driver for earnings this year, according to the firm.

"The state of earnings is strong," JPMorgan wrote, and this season should lead investors to refocus on AI spend by the AI and tech complex, where "anticipated strong growth is finally coming to fruition" with companies "not only delivering on robust expectations but in most cases surpassing" them.

"Looking ahead, we expect a more favorable 1Q reporting season than last quarter," the firm said.

The war in Iran has proven to be a double-edged sword for U.S. stocks. While the initial outbreak of fighting in the Middle East drove JPMorgan to lower its price target on the S&P 500 to 7200 from 7500 in March, the potential for geopolitical uncertainty to ease gives the firm's forecast a bigger boost to levels higher than its pre-war outlook.

Geopolitical tensions that led to a correction of about 10% marked a "clearing event" for the market breakout, according to JPMorgan. It also appears to have re-set investor interest in AI stocks, which the firm said has risen back to levels not seen since the first half of 2025 before valuation concerns set in.

To be sure, there's "meaningful risk" of the market ticking down before resuming its climb—perhaps what the S&P is going through now—but with oil prices "lingering" in the $90 per barrel range "assumes that it is unlikely there will be significant new escalation," JPMorgan said.

Amazon Stock Approaches New All-Time High

The new investments will add to the $8 billion Amazon has already put into Anthropic in the last several years.
Credit: Harun Ozalp / Anadolu / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Amazon and Anthropic have expanded their partnership in the latest agreement among companies powering the AI trade.
• Anthropic will use more of Amazon's custom AI hardware, and Amazon will invest between $5 billion and $25 billion in the Claude chatbot maker.

Amazon is boosting its bet on Anthropic as the AI spending wars grow.

Under a deal announced late Monday, Amazon (AMZN) committed to investing another $5 billion in the maker of the Claude chatbot, with the potential for up to $20 billion in future investments based on "certain commercial milestones." The new investments will add to the $8 billion Amazon has already put into Anthropic in the last several years.

The deal will also see Anthropic use Amazon's custom AI hardware while agreeing to spend $100 billion on Amazon Web Services over the next decade.

The expanded agreement with Anthoropic comes after Amazon announced in February a partnership with OpenAI. As part of that deal, the ChatGPT maker pledged to use Amazon chips and AWS services, while Amazon said it would invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI.

Why This Matters to Investors

Amazon and other big tech companies such as Nvidia and Microsoft have invested billions both on the hardware needed to run a growing number of AI data centers, as well as in AI startups. The huge investments have led investors to question what kind of return the tech giants will get.

"Following Amazon's expanded partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic, we believe AWS is increasingly well positioned to deliver AI solutions and we are incrementally confident that AWS can continue to deliver accelerating revenue growth," Citi analysts wrote following the latest announcement.

William Blair analysts said the deal is also indicative of Anthropic's need to grow its compute capacity as demand for its services grows. Anthropic recently announced an expanded collaboration with Broadcom (AVGO) and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google.

Investors and analysts will likely get a chance to hear more about the deal from Amazon executives on next week's earnings call, with the company set to report on April 29.

Amazon shares were up roughly 2% in early-afternoon trading Tuesday, approaching last November's record highs. Anthropic is not publicly traded, though the company reportedly is considering a highly anticipated initial public offering.

John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, is set to succeed Tim Cook as CEO in September
Credit: Adam Gray / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, is set to succeed Tim Cook as CEO in September.
• Investors are eager to see if Ternus will be able to deliver new products that excite consumers and address worries Apple's lagged in AI.

Investors want to see Apple's next round of products and AI-powered services shine. Can its new CEO deliver?

After a series of delays in highly anticipated AI features, and some underwhelming releases, Apple faces pressure to show it can still create the game-changing technology that has made it one of the world's biggest companies, valued in the trillions of dollars, and a giant in consumer electronics.

That's the job ahead for John Ternus, the longtime Apple (AAPL) executive the company yesterday named Tim Cook's successor. (Cook, named CEO in 2011, will become executive chairman.) While Ternus, currently Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering, won't take the helm until September, investors will likely be watching for signs of his plans for Apple's lineup in the coming months.

Why This Matters to Investors

Apple's change in leadership and Ternus' focus on hardware innovation could help drive renewed optimism around Apple's future.

“While Tim Cook was a legend and will be missed, Apple needs new leadership at the top to move beyond the iPhone and into the AI era,” analysts at Janus Henderson wrote. A new foldable phone, an AI-enhanced smartphone, affordable smart glasses, and other possible developments could become the new "hearts and lungs of Apple's success," said analysts at Wedbush.

Wedbush, Janus Henderson, and JPMorgan—along with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America—cheered the choice of Ternus for the CEO position. Ternus, who's been at Apple since 2001, is credited with playing a key role in the development of Apple's iPad and AirPods, along with several generations of the iPhone, Apple Watch, and Mac—including the more affordable MacBook Neo, seen as a hit since it was launched in March.

"As Ternus is an experienced hardware executive, investors will likely focus on new products and form factors, but more importantly, how will Ternus accelerate Apple’s progress in AI," Citi analysts wrote.

Ternus may be expected to play a larger role at Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June, where the company typically teases its latest tech. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, who called the event "critical," said investors will particularly want to see updates on AI features. (The company is also set to report its latest quarterly results next Thursday.)

Shares of Apple were down about 1% in recent trading, leaving them close to 6% off December's highs. The stock is up roughly 40% over the past 12 months.

McDonald's and Taco Bell are among the chains revamping their drink menus.
Credit: April Greer / The Washington Post via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Chains are filling drink menus with energizing juices and custom sodas to appeal to value-conscious consumers in search of affordable indulgences.
• The specialty beverage category is a niche that the fast-food industry is embracing for its attractive margins and youth appeal.

Americans may be drinking less alcohol, but they're still thirsty for fun. The big chains are happy to help.

Some of the biggest food-and-drink merchants around are stepping up to meet demand for affordable indulgences. A Red Bull Dragonberry Energizer, Dirty Dr. Pepper, and Mango Pineapple Refresher are just a few of the drinks reportedly coming to McDonald’s (MCD) restaurants later this year as part of a broad revamp of its drinks menu. America’s largest fast-food chain began testing the beverages in locations across the country last year, The Wall Street Journal recently wrote, shortly after shuttering its beverage-focused spinoff CosMc’s.

"Our fans’ love for McDonald’s beverages runs deep," a spokesperson for McDonald's told Investopedia. "Next month, we’re building on that passion with a new era of beverages, featuring a variety of Refreshers and crafted sodas rolling out nationwide."

Why This Is Important

Fast-food restaurants have struggled in recent years to grow profits while serving increasingly thrifty consumers. The specialty drink category, with its relatively high margins and popularity with young consumers, has emerged as a promising growth driver for the industry.

Taco Bell in the past year has opened more than 30 Live Más Cafés, coffeehouses cranking out “creamy chillers, light and fruity refreshers, bold energy drinks, and seasonal creations.” Live Más Cafés are situated inside existing Taco Bell restaurants, so diners can wash down a Cheesy Gordita Crunch with a Mexican Chocolate Churro Chiller. Triple Double Crunchwrap put you in a food coma? A Pineapple Lime Rockstar Energy Refresca—and its 200mg of caffeine, roughly twice that of a regular cup of coffee—is just steps away. 

Novelty beverages are a bright spot for a restaurant industry grappling with pandemic- and tariff-battered supply chains, rising costs, and value-conscious consumers. Yum! Brands (YUM), the parent company of Taco Bell and Kentucky Fried Chicken, estimates that specialty coffees like those at Live Más Café accounted for a quarter of the $169 billion nonalcoholic drink market in 2024. That market is expected to grow 5% annually between 2025 and 2032.

Panera in March launched two fruity new caffeinated drinks, along with two uncaffeinated ones. Sonic has new drinks based on fruit and green tea. Coffeehouse Dutch Bros. (BROS), with its long list of drinks with longer names—there's Black Forest Cold Brew With Sour Cherry Soft Top, to name just one—grew its revenue nearly 30% in the most recent quarter, making it the fastest growing restaurant chain in the Russell 3000. Same store sales, which gives a more nuanced picture of growth by removing sales from newly opened restaurants, increased nearly 8%.

Dutch Bros. is “right in the sweet spot of where the growth in this market is,” said CEO Christine Barone on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call in February. “It's about convenience. It's about energy. It's about iced, [and] innovation."

Why are Americans so thirsty for elaborate frozen coffees and electrifying lemonades? “Modern beverages have emerged as low-stakes indulgences with high emotional return,” wrote Yum! Brands researchers in the company’s inaugural industry trends report last year. “Drinks are small but accessible joys.”

Americans’—and especially young Americans’—obsession with novelty drinks may be an expression of the Lipstick Effect. History suggests that when times are tough and consumers need to tighten their belts, they continue to indulge in little luxuries. Those indulgences are often relatively inexpensive products that nod to opulence and the availability of discretionary income like lipstick, but they can also be more modest purchases that simply bring comfort. 

A search for pick-me-ups is also lifting demand, with energy drinks a staple of new beverage menus designed to appeal to young diners. Men under the age of 35 are the largest consumers of energy drinks, but they’ve grown more popular with other gender and age cohorts in recent years. One-third of American teenagers “regularly” consume energy drinks, according to the National Institutes of Health. 

The drink craze is welcome news for restaurants that have spent the past few years trying to win over inflation-weary consumers with value meals and other margin-compressing gambits like limited time offers and in-app discounts. Beverages are among fast food’s highest-margin offerings, making them less painful to discount. 

Shake Shack (SHAK) offers exclusive promotions on sodas, french fries, and shakes through its Shack app. According to CEO Robert Lynch, those “strategic incentives on our highest margin products” drove higher app downloads without endangering profits. “That is really a core driver of our growth right now,” said Lynch.

Healthcare Giant Gives Dow a Big Lift Tuesday

Tuesday's rally puts UnitedHealth Group shares back into positive territory for 2026.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• UnitedHealth Group shares surged Tuesday, pushing the Dow higher after the major health insurer's first quarter results topped Wall Street estimates.
• UnitedHealth also lifted its full-year profit forecast after high healthcare costs dragged earnings short of estimates several times in the last year.

A health insurance giant is powering the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher Tuesday.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) shares jumped 8% in early trading after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results. UnitedHealth said it earned an adjusted $7.23 per share on $111.7 billion in revenue, above the $6.53 and $109.8 billion that analysts had forecast, according to Visible Alpha estimates.

The company also lifted its full-year outlook, projecting adjusted earnings per share above $18.25, up from the target of at least $17.75 that UnitedHealth laid out in its fourth-quarter results.

Why This Matters to Investors

UnitedHealth's Tuesday gains could suggest that investors are growing more confident in the insurer's outlook for this year after the stock lost one-third of its value in 2025.

UnitedHealth's stock has been pressured for months by high healthcare costs leading to disappointing earnings, along with investigations from the federal government and a sudden CEO change less than a year ago.

Analysts said ahead of the report that UnitedHealth has significant room to improve its margins by cutting costs. UnitedHealth and other healthcare stocks rallied earlier this month after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services finalized its planned rate increase for next year, which will result in about $13 billion in extra payments for insurers.

With UnitedHealth's gains early Tuesday, shares have moved back into positive territory for the year. Coming into today's session, the stock had lost nearly a quarter of its value over the past 12 months.

Fuel prices are displayed on a sign as customers fill their vehicles at a gas station on April 13, 2026 in Miami, Florida.
Credit: Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Retail sales have increased the most in more than three years, driven by a surge in receipts at gas stations.
• The 15.5% monthly jump in gas station sales is not adjusted for inflation and reflects soaring prices due to the Iran war.
• Outside of gas, sales rose a healthy 0.6% over the month, indicating consumers still have spending money after shelling out at the pump.

March was a record-smashing month to be a retailer—if you own a gas station.

Retail sales jumped 1.7% in March from February, the largest increase since January 2023, the Census Bureau said Tuesday. The figure beat forecasters' expectations for a 1.5% jump, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The increase was driven by a 15.5% month-over-month increase in sales at gas stations, the biggest monthly increase in data going back to at least 1992.

The Census data tracks the amount of money that changes hands and is not adjusted for inflation, so the surge in sales tracks with the record increase in gasoline prices in March, resulting from the Iran War's disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East. The sales figures underscored the immediate and significant impact the Iran war has had on consumer spending and the economy, causing households and businesses to divert more of their spending toward fuel.

What This Means For The Economy

The report suggests that consumer spending, the main engine of U.S. economic growth, is resilient despite higher gas prices diverting money from other spending categories.

Despite the energy price shock, consumers did have money left over to spend elsewhere. Sales outside of gas stations rose 0.6%, and rose in all categories except for clothing stores, which had flat sales, and miscellaneous stores, which fell 0.9%. Restaurant sales rose a lackluster 0.1% in a possible sign that people are cutting back on eating out to afford the pricier gasoline, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary.

The report also held signs of one of last year's major economic upheavals, the tariffs President Donald Trump levied on most U.S. trading partners, as sales jumped 0.9% at appliance and electronics stores.

"The impact of tariffs is visible in the high spending on electronics and appliances due to higher prices," Long wrote.

News of the day for April 21, 2026

The major stock indexes finished slightly lower on Monday, pulling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite off of record highs.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Stock futures are higher this morning as investors digest a flurry of earnings reports and keep an eye on the latest developments in Iran; a second round of peace talks remains uncertain, while President Trump said yesterday that the two-week ceasefire that expires tomorrow is unlikely to be extended; Apple announced that company veteran John Ternus will replace Tim Cook as CEO at the start of September; Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, faces a committee confirmation hearing in front of the Senate today; and shares of UnitedHealth Group and GE Aerospace are rising after the companies reported better-than-expected quarterly results. Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Futures Gain as Investors Assess Earnings, Monitor Middle East

Stock futures are pointing higher as investors await the latest on peace talks with Iran and evaluate earnings reports from major companies. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.7% recently, while those connected to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 0.5%. All three major indexes, which have posted weekly gains for three consecutive weeks, fell slightly on Monday as investors reacted to new uncertainties in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were down 0.5% at $89 per barrel, while gold futures slipped 0.5% to $4,805 an ounce. Bitcoin was trading at $76,500, up from a low on Monday of $74,300. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects interest rates on loans, ticked higher to 4.26%.

Iran Peace Talks Are Uncertain A Day Before Ceasefire Expires

Iranian state media said this morning that no delegation from the country has yet traveled to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan where another round of peace talks could be held in the coming days. President Trump told Bloomberg on Monday that it is "highly unlikely" that the ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday gets extended, potentially putting more pressure on a second round of talks. Vice President J.D. Vance and other U.S. officials are reportedly set to travel to Pakistan today. Vance earlier this month was involved in two days of talks that failed to produce a deal. In the weeks since, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports and seized a cargo ship bearing an Iranian flag for allegedly trying to evade the blockade, for which Iran has said it will retaliate.

Apple Is Getting a New CEO: John Ternus

Apple (AAPL) announced after the closing bell yesterday that Tim Cook will step down from the top job at the start of September. Replacing Cook will be John Ternus, who has been with Apple for 25 years and currently serves as senior vice president of hardware engineering. Ternus has been hailed as an influential figure in the hardware and design process for the iPad and AirPods. Cook succeeded Steve Jobs starting in 2011, and has led Apple through dozens of new product launches, solidifying the iPhone maker's global manufacturing and sales footprint. Apple said the 65-year-old Cook will transition to an executive chairman role, and remain active with the company by meeting with governments around the world. Apple shares were little changed ahead of the opening bell.

Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Faces Confirmation Hearing

Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve will face a confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee scheduled for 10 a.m. ET. Warsh will likely be questioned about where he thinks interest rates should be as the Iran war drives up inflation, along with his thoughts on Trump's public criticism and criminal investigation into Powell. One senator on the committee, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, has said he will not support Warsh's confirmation until the probe into Powell's management of a renovation of a Federal Reserve building is dropped, citing concerns that the investigation could threaten the independence of the Fed.

GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group Lead Packed Day of Earnings

Dozens of S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings this week, and leading the way today are UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and GE Aerospace (GE). UnitedHealth handily topped estimates with adjusted earnings of $7.23 per share on $111.7 billion in revenue, as the insurance giant also lifted its profit outlook for the full year. GE Aerospace also beat estimates, posting adjusted earnings of $1.86 per share on $12.4 billion in revenue. The airplane engine maker held its outlook steady given the "dynamic geopolitical landscape," but said it is trending towards the high end of its forecasts with a solid first quarter. The other companies reporting earnings today include Capital One Financial (COF), United Airlines (UAL), conglomerate 3M (MMM) and homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI). UnitedHealth shares were up 7% in recent premarket trading, while GE Aerospace shares rose less than 1%.

Boeing shares are up about 4% since the start of the year.
Credit: M. Scott Brauer / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Boeing is scheduled to post earnings Wednesday morning, with traders expecting a big move from its stock after the results.
• Boeing's revenue is seen growing while its losses widen year-over-year as the company works to ramp up production, which has been hampered by investigations and intense scrutiny after quality scandals.

Boeing is set to report earnings ahead of the market open Wednesday, with traders anticipating a big move in the plane maker's stock following the results.

Current options pricing suggests traders expect Boeing's (BA) stock could swing up to about 5% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Monday's close could push shares close to $236 or drag them down to around $214, giving up some of their recent gains.

Boeing shares are up about 4% since the start of the year. They climbed back into positive territory earlier this month, as broader markets rallied amid optimism that a peace deal in Iran could come soon.

Why This Matters to Investors

Investors will be watching closely for updates on the Boeing's turnaround efforts after investigations and production slowdowns hampered its ability to build and deliver planes in the last two years.

Last month, Wells Fargo analysts launched their coverage of Boeing with an "overweight" rating and $250 price target. The analysts said they expect Boeing's free cash flow to see a "sharp" recovery as the company ramps production back to maximum capacity.

Boeing is seen reporting an adjusted loss of 69 cents per share for the first quarter, widening from a loss of 37 cents per share a year ago, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Its revenue is seen rising 11% to $21.6 billion. Last week, Boeing reported 143 commercial deliveries and 30 defense and space deliveries for the first quarter, up from 130 and 26, respectively, from a year ago.

Wall Street analysts are widely bullish on Boeing. Seven of the eight analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha have recommended buying the stock, compared to just one neutral rating. Their mean target just below $264 would suggest 17% upside and represent its highest point since late 2023, before an Alaska Airlines (ALK) door plug incident in January 2024 sent the stock tumbling.