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Take A Number: A Striking Figure In Economics News Today

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Key Takeaways

• The expiration of a Biden-era health insurance subsidy this year is taking a toll on household budgets, according to a new survey.
• In a KFF poll, 51% of people re-enrolling in ACA plans said their costs were "a lot" higher than before.
• A majority were cutting back on other expenses as a result of the hikes, while 17% worried they would be unable to afford their premiums this year.

The long-feared Affordable Care Act premium hikes are starting to squeeze household budgets.

That's according to a survey from the health research organization KFF, which found that among people re-enrolling in an ACA plan in 2026, 80% had higher premiums, deductibles, coinsurance, or copays than last year. More than half said their costs were "a lot" higher.

What This Means For The Economy

The surge in health care premiums could hurt consumer spending by diverting household budgets.

The survey showed the impact of the expiration of a pandemic-era federal subsidy that had pushed down costs for many enrollees. Congress allowed the tax credit to expire this year after Democrats tried unsuccessfully to extend it, and an alternative Republican plan to contain health care costs never materialized.

Before the credit expired, KFF estimated people's insurance premiums would double on average.

The cost increases are having serious effects on the financial situation of ACA enrollees, the survey found.

Among the 1,117 people surveyed, 73% said they were worried about affording the costs of emergency care or hospitalizations; 49% worried about affording routine medical care; and 45% worried about paying for prescription drugs.

As a result of those concerns, 55% said they are, or will be, cutting back on household spending to afford health care costs, and 17% said they weren't confident they would be able to afford their premium this year.

Friday's plunge dragged Supermicro shares to their lowest level since late 2024.
Credit: HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Super Micro Computer shares tumbled Friday after the company's co-founder and two others were charged with illegally funneling restricted AI hardware to China.
• The three were accused of violating U.S. export laws by sending American servers with Nvidia's cutting-edge chips to China through intermediaries.

A once-high-flying tech stock just lost one-third of its value in a single session.

Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell 33% to $20.53 on Friday after the server maker's co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, along with a company employee and a contractor, were charged with illegally smuggling American AI hardware to China.

The Department of Justice alleges the three conspired to violate U.S. export laws by funneling billions of dollars worth of servers containing restricted, cutting-edge Nvidia (NVDA) AI chips to customers in China through intermediaries.

Supermicro said in a statement that it has placed Liaw and the company's employee on leave, while severing its relationship with the contractor. The company said it has fully cooperated with the government's investigation and plans to continue doing so.

Nvidia said that, with the expansion of export regulations, it has worked with the government and customers on compliance programs. "Unlawful diversion of controlled U.S. computers to China is a losing proposition across the board—NVIDIA does not provide any service or support for such systems, and the enforcement mechanisms are rigorous and effective," the company said in a statement.

Why This Matters to Investors

The development could undermine confidence in Supermicro's stock, which has struggled to reclaim its 2024 highs after a series of scandals, including the resignation of the company's auditor and delays in its regulatory reporting.

Friday's plunge dragged shares of Supermicro to their lowest level since late 2024, when the company faced speculation about its accounting practices after EY resigned as the company's auditor, and the threat of being delisted from the Nasdaq for delaying required regulatory disclosures. Those concerns later abated after the company filed its delayed reports in early 2025.

"While AI sales remain strong with management expressing confidence in expectations, we expect accounting issues to remain at the forefront of investor minds," Citi analysts said on Friday.

WIth today's steep decline, Supermicro shares have fellen nearly 50% over the past 12 months.

UPDATE: This article has been updated with Friday's closing stock market prices.

Friday's move puts FedEx stock back near record highs
Credit: Zamekl / VIEWpress / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• FedEx stock surged Friday morning after the shipping giant reported better-than-expected results and raised its full-year guidance.
• The company said its planned spin-off of its Freight division is on track to be completed by June 1, with the new company's first investor day set for April 8.

A strong earnings report and boosted outlook has FedEx stock jumping Friday.

FedEx (FDX) shares were up 7% in recent premarket trading after the company posted results for its fiscal third quarter, which included the busy holiday shopping season, that topped Wall Street expectations on the top and bottom lines. FedEx earned an adjusted $5.25 per share on an 8% jump in revenue to $24 billion in the quarter, each above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha.

The shipping giant reported a 3% year-over-year increase in average daily volume of packages shipped, along with a 6% bump to revenue per package. The company also lifted its outlook for revenue growth and profits for the full fiscal year, and said it now expects to save more than $1 billion in its latest cost-cutting program, up from the previous $1 billion forecast.

Why This Matters to Investors

Friday's move shows that investors are pleased with FedEx's recent performance after concerns over how President Trump's tariffs could affect shipping demand pressured the stock for much of last year.

Morgan Stanley analysts said Thursday's results showed FedEx had an "exceptionally strong peak season," but cautioned that FedEx's earnings remain volatile as its Express segment tops estimates, while the Freight business continues to fall short. The analysts kept their "underweight" rating, but lifted their price target to $230 from $220. The new target implies about 35% downside from Thursday's closing level.

FedEx said the planned spin-off of its Freight business into its own publicly traded company under the "FDXF" ticker remains on track to happen by June 1, and said the new Freight company will hold its first investor day on April 8.

With Friday's move, FedEx shares have gained more than 30% since the start of the year, and are approaching last month's record highs.

News of the day for March 20, 2026

Major stock indexes are on track to post their fourth straight weekly declines.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Stocks are on track for a lower open Friday after two straight days of declines for the major indexes amid worries over inflation and how long the Iran war will last; oil prices are down slightly after a volatile session yesterday; FedEx stock is surging after the shipping giant beat estimates and lifted its outlook in its latest quarterly report; Super Micro Computer stock is tumbling after a co-founder was indicted for circumventing export restrictions to sell banned Nvidia chips to Chinese customers; and shares of Nexstar and Tegna are rising on news that their merger received federal approval. Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Point Lower as Major Indexes on Pace for 4th Straight Week of Losses

Stock futures are moving lower this morning, on track for a third straight day of declines to close out the week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq were recently down 0.3%, 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. The major indexes declined Thursday as investors assessed the latest developments in Iran, including strikes on energy production facilities that led to a volatile session for oil prices. Crude oil prices are down slightly today (more on that below). Gold futures were up more than 1% to around $4,700 an ounce after tumbling yesterday to their lowest point in two months amid worries about inflation and high interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.30%, up from 4.28% at yesterday's close and near a two-month high, while bitcoin was little changed at just over $70,000.

Oil Prices Slip After Volatile Session Thursday

Crude oil prices are down slightly after a wild session yesterday in which the commodity soared early in the day before giving back those gains and finishing the session lower. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were down about 1.5% recently at $107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. standard, fell 1%, to around $95. The moves come amid reports of another day of strikes by Israel on Iran's capital city of Tehran, along with retaliatory strikes from Iran on several oil and gas facilities across the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Iran no longer has the ability to make ballistic missiles or enrich uranium, a pair of key objectives for the Trump administration, but it remains uncertain how long the war will last.

FedEx Stock Surges on Solid Earnings Report

FedEx (FDX) shares are soaring Friday morning after the shipping giant posted a better-than-expected earnings report for its fiscal third quarter. FedEx said after Thursday's closing bell that it earned an adjusted $5.25 per share on $24 billion in revenue in the quarter, each above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. The company also lifted its outlook for revenue growth and profits for the full fiscal year, and said its planned spin-off of its Freight business remains on track to happen by June 1. FedEx shares were up 7% in recent premarket trading, poised to open not far from the record high the stock set last month.

Super Micro Tanks as Co-Founder Indicted for Alleged Nvidia Chip Smuggling

Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) are plummeting Friday after the Department of Justice unsealed an indictment late Thursday of three men: the server maker's co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw, along with a Super Micro employee and contractor. The DOJ alleges that the three conspired to violate export restrictions by selling servers containing billions of dollars worth of restricted Nvidia (NVDA) chips to several customers in China. Super Micro said in a statement that the actions described in the indictment violate the company's policies, and said it has cooperated with the investigation while placing the two indicted employees on leave and cutting ties with the contractor. Shares of the server maker were down 25% recently, at their lowest level since late 2024.

Tegna and Nexstar Shares Rise as Merger Receives Federal Approval

A pair of local TV giants are on the rise this morning, with shares of Nexstar Media Group (NXST) and Tegna (TGNA) gaining after Nexstar said Thursday night that the companies' $6 billion merger has closed after receiving approval from the DOJ and Federal Communications Commission. The approval comes less than a day after a group of eight states filed a lawsuit against the two companies looking to block the merger on the grounds that the combined company would be too large, and hurt competition for consumers. Combined, the companies could reach about 80% of homes in the U.S. through their 265 local TV stations across 44 states, per the lawsuit. Nexstar shares were up more than 1% recently, while Tegna, the smaller of the two firms, saw its stock jump 9% ahead of the opening bell.

A court ruling could pave the way for refunds of late fees and penalties assessed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Credit: Getty

Key Takeaways

• A court case from last year may mean that taxpayers who were assessed late fees during the COVID-19 pandemic could be owed a refund.
• The court ruled that the IRS violated a federal law that prohibited the agency from setting filing deadlines during the COVID-19 federal disaster declaration.
• Taxpayers have until July 10 to file a refund claim with the IRS.

If you paid a late fee to the Internal Revenue Service during the COVID-19 pandemic, you may have a shot at getting a refund. But you’ll need to act fast.

A court ruled late last year that disaster provisions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic suspended certain tax deadlines from Jan. 20, 2020 through July 23, 2023. That means taxpayers who were assessed late fees at that time could get a refund. The period includes tax returns filed for 2019 through 2022 and taxpayers must file for the refund before July 10.

“Although the case was decided several months ago, it has recently begun attracting more attention as tax practitioners recognize its potential scope and the approaching deadlines to file refund claims,” wrote Ivan Golden, attorney for the Taft law firm.

Refund Claims Have Time Limits

The federal court ruled in November that any filing deadlines for tax returns from those years should have been extended until July 10, 2023. That means anyone who filed returns covering the pandemic years before that date may be able to get a refund if they were charged late fees or penalties. 

Why This Matters

IRS penalties and interest can quietly add up, so the chance to reclaim those funds could put real money back in your pocket or portfolio.

Taxpayers seeking a refund from the IRS for late fees or penalties must also adhere to the statute of limitations for refund requests. Refund claims generally have a three-year time limit, or two years from the date the tax was paid, whichever is longer. That gives taxpayers until July 10 to meet the refund deadline.

“Given the strict statute of limitations for filing refund claims, taxpayers who, within the last two years, paid interest or penalties that accrued during the postponement period should act quickly,” wrote Fox Rothschild lawyers Matthew Lee, Brian Bernhardt and Jonathan Wasser. “Additionally, taxpayers who accrued penalties or interest during the postponement period, but who have not paid them, have an opportunity to seek abatement.”

Taxpayers Should Check Their IRS Transcript

President Donald Trump declared the pandemic a nationwide emergency effective on January 20, 2020, and former President Joe Biden ended the emergency period on May 11, 2023. The court ruled that federal law prohibited the IRS from setting filing deadlines, collecting interest or assessing penalties during this period, thus opening the door for a refund.

Taxpayers seeking a refund for this period should begin by checking their tax transcripts from those years for any late fees or penalties. Taxpayers can get their transcripts online at IRS.gov or by calling the IRS at 800-829-1040.

The information in the transcript can be used to file Form 843, which the IRS uses for refund claims. A tax professional can assist you with filing this form.

Secretary of Education Linda McMahon is moving responsibilities of federal student loans to US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent
Credit: Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The Department of Education is beginning the process of moving the trillion-dollar federal student loan portfolio to the Department of the Treasury.
• Borrowers in active repayment will not experience changes to their loan servicer or payment process.

The Department of Education is beginning the process of transferring the management of federal student loans to the Department of the Treasury.

The Education Department announced on late Thursday that this transition will work in phases. The Department of the Treasury will begin managing part of the portfolio Thursday.

Treasury's first order of business will be to collect on defaulted federal student loans and move the currently 9.2 million borrowers in default and 2.4 million in late-stage delinquency back into repayment, a senior Department of Education official and a senior Department of the Treasury official said in a press call with reporters.

Student loan borrowers in active repayment will see no change in their loan servicer or how they make payments, senior officials said.

Previously, Federal Student Aid, under the Department of Education, with the help of contracted loan servicers, handled the nearly $1.7 billion federal student loan portfolio.

This transition moves the Department of Education closer to complete elimination, as President Donald Trump ordered in 2025. The Department of Education had previously debated moving the federal student loan portfolio to a private lender or the Small Business Administration.

“The Federal Student Assistance Partnership marks an intentional and historic step toward breaking up the federal education bureaucracy and dramatically improving the administration of federal student aid programs that millions of American students, families, and borrowers rely on to access higher education,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon, in a press release.

Lumentum and Coherent shares have surged in recent weeks after a flurry of good news.
Credit: Getty Images, Coherent

Key Takeaways

• Coherent and Lumentum shares gained Thursday as Bank of America analysts lifted their price targets for the stocks.
• Both stocks have rallied in recent weeks amid a flurry of positive news, including multibillion-dollar investments from Nvidia.

Two hot tech stocks backed by Nvidia just got a fresh vote of confidence on Wall Street.

Coherent (COHR) shares jumped 7% Thursday, while Lumentum (LITE) popped over 10%, as Bank of America analysts raised their price targets for the photonics and laser makers, citing rising expectations of growth after attending an industry event.

The analysts said they came away from meetings with management at the 2026 Optical Fiber Communications conference in Los Angeles this week even more convinced of "robust growth to come" for the companies, as the AI boom drives up demand for networking hardware.

Why This Matters to Investors

Bank of America's higher targets could add to growing enthusiasm for shares Coherent and Lumentum, which have rallied this year after a series of positive developments.

Bank of America raised its price objective for Coherent to $290 from $250, and Lumentum's to $775 from $600, in a note to clients Thursday. Both are well above the Street's mean targets of $257 and $703, respectively, according to Visible Alpha.

With their recent gains, both stocks are approaching record highs set just earlier this month, after the companies announced multibillion-dollar investments from AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA). The stocks also got a boost after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stocks will join the S&P 500 later this month. The change is set to take place ahead of markets opening Monday.

With Thursday's gains, Coherent shares are up close to 50% since the start of the year. Lumentum shares have more than doubled in the same period.

Gold prices tumbled to a two-month low after Federal Reserve Chair Powell voiced concerns about inflation.

Despite the sharp decline this month, gold prices are up 60% over the past 12 months.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Spot gold prices fell Thursday to their lowest level in two months as investors fretted about rising inflation and the prospect of interest rates remaining high.
• Some market watchers remain confident that many of the factors that propelled gold to record highs over the past year remain in place.

A test of the Federal Reserve's mettle is weighing on precious metals.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking yesterday after the central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged, expressed concern about the impact of rising oil prices on inflation, and said that the possibility of a rate hike has come up in policy committee discussions. The whiff of hawkish energy from the Fed cast a pall over markets, sending stocks lower, bond yields higher and precious metal prices into the dumps. (Read Investopedia's coverage of today's market action here.)

Spot gold prices were down about 4% at $4,650 an ounce recently, after falling as much 7% earlier in the day. The precious metal has lost 11% of its value since the Iran war began in late February. Mining stocks including Newmont (NEM) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) were among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 on Thursday, while the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) dropped 7%.

A Fed decision to raise interest rates, which seemed unthinkable until recently, would make yielding assets such as bonds look relatively more appealing, explaining the decline in metals lately.

Important

Gold might have backed off from record levels, but some market experts say that the outlook for the precious metal remains favorable. The price of gold is still up 60% over the past 12 months, and remains well above its 200-day moving average.

Profit-taking after gold soared to a series of record highs over the past year could also be at play, according to Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. "Perhaps investors in the Middle East are selling gold to buy the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened during the war, even though both are considered safe havens," Yardeni said in a report published Thursday afternoon. He also said rising bond yields could also be contributing to gold's "meltdown."

Retail investors are "starting to give up on gold" according to Vanda Research. Some $2.8 million flowed out of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a popular fund that tracks the price of the precious metal, in the first two hours of trading—at that pace, Thursday could be the biggest day of net selling in the fund since February 26, data compiled by Vanda show.

However, at least one investment strategist remains bullish on gold, and reminded investors—many of whom expressed concern about it during a global asset allocation webinar today—that various signals still tilted in favor of it.

Concerns about gold's outlook were hard to miss during Ned Davis Research's webinar on Thursday—Investopedia's queries about the outlook for the precious metal were preempted by at least a handful of other investors who wrote in similar questions. The firm's chief global investment strategist Tim Hayes, in response, said the firm's models were still flashing in favor of gold, and that "macro factors haven't turned negative." He also said "the thing to watch" to get an early sense of gold's prospects turning negative, is if it fell below its 200-day moving average of around $4,100.

Sentiment signals are flashing for it too. "Gold pessimism has increased quite a bit," Hayes said. "From a contrarian standpoint that is a bullish sign."

Higher oil prices will compress profit margins before denting consumer demand, according to Jefferies analysts.
Credit: kazakova0684 / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The recent oil price spike is likely to cause the most margin pressure for companies with the highest exposure to global supply chains and freight, according to a Jefferies consumer equities analyst note on Thursday.
• The analysts note that certain industries, like travel and cosmetics, could be relatively insulated from economic pressure even if consumers rein in spending on non-essentials.

Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping lanes and caused oil prices to spike, raising the risk of ripple effects that hit stock portfolios halfway around the world.

Consumer discretionary and staples stocks have been among the hardest hit by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, in triple-digit territory. (Read our full daily markets coverage here.) Investors are concerned that surging oil prices will weigh on consumer spending and drive up costs for companies that make, move, and sell everything from paper towel to stiletto heels. “History suggests oil shocks do not hit the consumer evenly,” wrote Jefferies analysts in a note on Thursday. “The path of impact typically moves from costs to margins before demand, creating clear winners and losers based on business model, cost structure, and pricing flexibility.”

The companies that are most vulnerable to oil price shocks are those “with global sourcing, freight-intensive logistics, elevated inventories, and margins priced for recovery,” according to Jefferies. Nike (NKE) is one company that may be pressured by higher freight costs “given its scale and supply-chain complexity,” according to lifestyle goods analyst Randy Konik. He notes oil prices could prevent shoemaker On Holdings (ONON) from achieving the high profit margin expectations priced into its stock, while online fashion retailer Revolve (RVLV) could feel the pinch from its “inventory-heavy model and discretionary exposure.” 

Why This Is Important

As the war in Iran drags on toward a fourth week, the investors are increasingly pricing in a prolonged conflict that results in a sustained disruption to global oil supplies. The consequences of that disruption will ripple through supply chains, effecting consumer behavior and, subsequently, stocks.

“Asset-light, recurring revenue models and companies with near-shored supply chains” are the most resilient to higher oil prices, according to Jefferies, including gym operators like Planet Fitness (PLNT) and Life Time Group Holdings (LTH). Estée Lauder (EL) is likely insulated by its increasingly localized supply chain, according to beauty analyst Sydney Wagner, who notes about 75% of the company’s U.S. sales are manufactured domestically. Highly differentiated products, like those from SharkNinja (SN), and strong brands, like Coca-Cola (KO) and Ralph Lauren (RL), are expected to be insulated by their pricing power—that is, their ability to raise prices without turning off consumers. 

A company’s clientele is another factor to consider, because fuel accounts for a greater share of lower-income consumer spending than higher-income. With the average gas price up sharply since the start of the war, companies that cater primarily to low-income consumers could see demand drop off faster and more dramatically than premium brands. This is especially true in fashion, where value-oriented retailers like Kohl’s (KSS) or mid-tier brands like VFC Corp.’s (VFC) Vans and Timberland may be hit harder than luxury brands like Capri Holdings’ (CPRI) Jimmy Choo, according to Jefferies.

At the industry level, some industries face greater risk than others. Higher oil prices are “a renewed and underappreciated risk for the global toy sector,” according to toy analyst Kylie Cohu. Oil spikes create dual headwinds for toy makers: higher input and freight costs, and reduced demand as consumers, facing higher fuel prices and economic uncertainty, rein in discretionary purchases. 

Not all discretionary spending faces the same pressure. “Historically, demand for vacations and leisure-related activities has proven resilient in periods of inflation and higher travel costs,” wrote gaming, lodging, and leisure analyst David Katz, who calls vacation spending a “high-priority discretionary category.” Beauty analyst Sydney Wagner notes cosmetics also tend to benefit from the “lipstick effect,” the tendency of consumers to treat beauty products as “affordable luxuries” they can still splurge on despite financial pressure. 

Higher oil prices can even be a tailwind for some retailers. Convenience stores that sell gasoline, like Casey’s General Store (CASY) and Murphy USA (MUSA), tend to see their gas margins expand in the long run once oil prices moderate. Warehouse giant Costco (COST) “stands out for using low-priced fuel as a traffic driver,” wrote discount retailer analyst Corey Tarlowe. According to Tarlowe, about half of Costco members who fuel up at its gas stations “also cross-shop at the warehouse, supporting higher-margin merchandise sales.”

Shares of Five Below have risen substantially over the past year.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Shares of discount retailer Five Below soared Thursday, a day after the company reported strong sales growth and offered up guidance that topped Wall Street's expectations.
• The company's shares have been on a tear, roughly tripling over the past year with the help of value-seeking shoppers.

Five Below stock's climb isn't slowing down.

Shares of Five Below (FIVE) surged some 10% in Thursday trading, a day after the company reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter. The move extended a lengthy upward run for the discount retailer's shares: Five Below has roughly tripled in value over the past year, and are up about 20% since the start of 2026. Shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) were recently in retreat; read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.

The company has been lifted by an economic environment that has driven shoppers at a range of income levels to discount retailers as they seek value and affordable price points. Results from some of Five Below's counterparts have lately raised questions about whether lower-income consumers might be feeling enough of a pinch that their business might soften, but its latest results demonstrated solid growth. The Philadelphia-based company posted adjusted earnings of $4.31 per share on net sales that increased 24% year-over-year to $1.73 billion; Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $3.99 and $1.71 billion, respectively.

"Our outstanding fourth quarter results capped off a transformational year," CEO Winnie Park said.

Five Below's guidance for the current-quarter and fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS and net sales comfortably topped estimates.

Wall Street analysts broadly expect further gains for Five Below's shares. The Street's mean price target, near $247, suggests a more than 15% premium to Wednesday's close. Bank of America after the results reiterated a buy rating and lifted its target to a Street-high $305, up from $260.