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• Real hourly earnings have fallen 0.7% since the start of the Iran war, as high fuel prices have pushed up inflation faster than wages have risen.
• The decline in household buying power means consumer spending increasingly depends on affluent households flush with stock market wealth driven by the AI boom.

Rising prices are eroding the buying power of a typical paycheck.

Average hourly earnings took a step down in August, as the consumer price index rose faster than average hourly pay. Inflation-adjusted, or “real,” earnings have been on a downward trend since February and are now just below their level in May 2025. Real wages fell 0.7% between February and August.

This decline in inflation-adjusted or “real” wages is largely due to higher fuel prices. It is less severe than the downturn that took place in the post-pandemic years, but still represents a setback for household budgets. It also poses risks for the broader economy, which has become more reliant on stock market gains to fuel consumer spending.

Because 68% of the GDP is from consumer spending, growth could take a hit if people start trimming their household budgets to cope with rising prices for necessities like food and gas.

The downturn in worker buying power undermines consumer confidence and poses risks to the economy if people cut back on spending.

“Clearly, the resilience of consumer spending this year has been bolstered more by copious tax refunds, the drawing down of savings and the wealth effect from a booming stock market than from worker paychecks,” Bob Schwartz, senior economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary.

Because so much of consumer spending is being powered by affluent households whose budgets are flush from the stock market boom being fueled by the AI expansion, the broader economy has become more vulnerable than usual to a downturn in that industry. The AI spending spree propping up the stock market could lose momentum if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, or if public backlash against AI technology hinders the construction of data centers, for example.

“While non-trivial prospects, we don’t expect these events to bring down the economy in the foreseeable future,” Schwartz wrote. “Yet it is hard to ignore warning signs linked to both the myriad external shocks as well as the waning influence of workers.”

• Median household income rose 2.6% in 2025, reaching a six-decade high after adjusting for inflation.
• The gender wage gap narrowed as women’s median earnings increased 3.2%, while men’s earnings remained flat.
• The official poverty rate fell slightly, to 10.2%, but poverty among adults without a high school diploma increased.

Household income rose in 2025, poverty fell, and the gender pay gap narrowed for the first time in a decade, the Census Bureau said Tuesday.

Median household income rose 2.6% to $87,460 in 2025, the highest, adjusted for inflation, since the bureau began tracking it in 1967. More people held full-time, year-round jobs, Mike King, chief of the bureau’s Income Statistics Branch, said in a press conference.

That shift may explain the year’s most notable change: Median earnings for full-time, year-round workers rose 3.2% for women while remaining flat for men, narrowing the gender pay gap.

“The exact reasons for these changes are complicated,” King said. Still, full-time, year-round employment rose for both men and women while the overall number of workers didn’t, he said, which suggests people moved from part-time to full-time work.

Federal agencies use the Census figures to set poverty thresholds and program eligibility and to judge whether recent tax and policy changes have helped or hurt Americans. If your household’s income didn’t rise by more than about 5%—the real income change plus the inflation rate—you lost ground to the typical U.S. family last year.

But the pay gap could change again if last year’s cuts to Medicaid and food assistance make it harder for families to find care for children and older relatives, or to keep the healthcare they need to keep working, said Ismael Cid-Martinez, an economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.

“I want to be careful about not making too much out of one year,” Cid-Martinez said.

Several groups made gains. Median income rose 4.8% for Black households, to $59,980, compared with 3% for white households, whose median was much higher, at $91,930, the Census Bureau said. Median incomes for Asian ($126,300) and Hispanic households ($73,260) didn’t change significantly.

Gains varied more by age. Households headed by someone 35 to 44 gained 5.1%, to $114,100, and those headed by someone 55 to 64 gained 5.9%, to $99,320. But households headed by someone under 25 or 45 to 54 were relatively flat.

Among full-time workers, some groups lost ground. Median earnings fell at every education level from high school through college, even as the overall median rose. Full-time workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher earned $92,170, 1.7% less after inflation, than in 2024.

The official poverty rate, which applies a single national threshold, fell 0.5 percentage points to 10.2%, and the child poverty rate declined to 13.4%, the Census Bureau said. The supplemental poverty measure (SPM), which adjusts for regional housing costs and counts government assistance, was 13.1%, not a statistically significant change from 2024.

Despite worries this past year about employment among college graduates in particular, the only education group whose poverty rate rose significantly was adults without a high school diploma: up 2 percentage points to 32.4% under the SPM.

Income inequality, as measured by the Gini index, was unchanged, though another measure suggests households at the bottom are falling behind. A household at the 90th percentile of income took in $261,300 in 2025, 13.06 times as much as the household at the 10th percentile, which took in $20,010. That ratio was about 12.74 in 2024.

Households with median or typical incomes also pulled ahead of those at the bottom: They took in 4.37 times as much as a household at the 10th percentile, up from 4.22 in 2024.

The top fifth of households collected 52% of all household income last year, and the top 5% alone took in 24%, compared with 3% for the bottom fifth.

“A lot of folks at the top of the distribution seem to be recovering quite strongly, but not everyone is really enjoying the fruits of the recovery,” Cid-Martinez said, adding that the data was indicative of a K-shaped economy.

Analysts cautioned that the new Census figures don’t yet reflect tighter eligibility rules for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Medicaid that took effect in the past year. Those effects will likely surface in next year’s data.

Update, Sept. 15, 2026—This story was updated to include expert responses to Tuesday’s Census data.

• Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff is set to give a keynote address for the company’s annual Dreamforce event Tuesday afternoon.
• Options pricing suggests traders see Salesforce stock swinging up to 4% by the end of the week.
• Analysts said investors will likely be focused on the company’s recently announced partnership with Anthropic and its long-term financial forecasts.

Salesforce is set to hold its annual Dreamforce keynote later this afternoon, with traders anticipating a sizable move in the enterprise software giant’s stock.

Based on current options pricing, Salesforce (CRM) shares are expected to swing up to 4% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Monday’s close could see shares rally as high as $270, which would be a new high point of the year. The low end of that range would be about $248, giving back some of the stock’s recent gains after a better-than-expected earnings report.

Salesforce shares, which have lingered in negative territory for much of this year amid worries about AI disruption, were down about 2% for 2026 heading into Tuesday’s session. The Dreamforce keynote led by CEO Marc Benioff is set to begin at 1 p.m. ET. (You can stream it here.)

Salesforce’s Dreamforce event could highlight partnerships and financial targets that would improve sentiment around the stock.

Ahead of the event, analysts at UBS said investors will likely be focused on the company’s recently announced partnership with Anthropic, which they credited for driving a “narrative shift” around the shares in recent weeks. JPMorgan analysts wrote that they expect Salesforce could also reaffirm some of the long-term targets the company laid out at last year, including $63 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

Analysts are largely bullish on Salesforce stock ahead of the event. Thirteen of the 19 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha have said they consider the stock a “buy,” while the remaining six hold neutral ratings. Their average price target of $272 would suggest upside of about 5% from Monday’s close.

• Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks fell Tuesday ahead of a key vote on the Clarity Act.
• The act, which proposes new crypto regulations, needs 60 votes to advance to a full vote in the Senate.

Crypto is getting clipped.

Bitcoin and several leading coin-linked stocks were lower Tuesday ahead of an important test for a major crypto bill. 

The Clarity Act, which would establish new regulations for the industry, faces an afternoon cloture vote in the Senate today, and would need 60 votes to advance to a floor vote. 

Uncertainty remains around the bill’s future, in part because Senate Democrats have been pushing for language that would address the wealth acquired by President Donald Trump and his family’s crypto ventures. A White House-approved ethics provision released Sunday evening might not suffice.

Passage through a cloture vote could be taken as a positive sign and boost bitcoin prices, which have recently pulled back after peaking above $81,000 earlier this month.

Bitcoin was trading below $77,000 this morning, while a number of crypto-related stocks—including Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD) and Circle (CRCL)—were down at least 3%.

Read Investopedia’s full coverage of today’s trading here.

• Dave & Buster’s shares tumbled Tuesday after the company reported a surprise quarterly loss.
• The company’s revenue fell short of expectations, with arcade game sales declining 9% year-over-year.

Shares of Dave & Buster’s Entertainment are tumbling after the restaurant and arcade operator posted a surprise loss.

Shares of Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) were down nearly 13% in recent trading to $7.42, their lowest point since early 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic upended the company’s business model.

Dave & Buster’s late yesterday reported an adjusted loss of 27 cents per share for the second quarter, when analysts were looking for a profit of 22 cents per share. Its revenue came in at $544.1 million, down 2% year-over-year and below the Visible Alpha consensus of $556.8 million.

Entertainment revenue, the money Dave & Buster’s makes from its arcade games, fell 9% year-over-year, while costs rose as the company invested in remodeling stores and opening new ones.

The company has warned over the last year that inflation worries are hampering its ability to return to sales growth. Last month, the company announced that then-CEO Tarun Lal was retiring after just a year in the top job, with CFO Darin Harper succeeding him.

With Tuesday’s slump, Dave & Buster’s shares are down more than 50% since the start of the year, and nearly 70% in the last 12 months.

• The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates to a target range of 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, marking the first hike under Chair Kevin Warsh.
• Analysts are divided on whether this will be a one-time rate hike or the start of a series, with inflation and rising oil prices being key factors.
• Bond markets are anticipating further rate hikes, with the 10-year Treasury yield recently breaching 5% and mortgage rates climbing above 7%.

The Federal Reserve will most likely raise interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023, analysts say, but the big question is whether officials will signal more hikes are coming. 

With inflation on the rise, analysts widely expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to pull the trigger on his first rate hike as the central bank’s leader. That decision, set to be released at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, would bring the benchmark federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.

It could be a one-and-done, some analysts say. Or it could be the first of a few Fed rate increases, others say, particularly if oil prices keep climbing. 

The bond market has been voting for the latter scenario, raising the stakes for Warsh to deliver on rate hikes to combat inflation or clearly explain why they aren’t necessary.

“You could find enough reasons to stay on hold, but you are doing it in a market that is anticipating more and more aggressive action,” Ed Al-Hussainy, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, said on a recent webinar with reporters.

Another Fed rate hike could affect mortgage rates, borrowing costs, bonds, and stocks. For investors and consumers, the bigger issue is whether more hikes follow.

Traders see a 93% probability that the Fed will hike rates in its Wednesday decision, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which uses futures market pricing to gauge Fed probabilities. And they’re pricing in more hikes in the months ahead. 

Warsh will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET to explain the Fed’s decision. 

Markets’ conviction of rate hikes jumped on Friday, after the latest data showed consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 3.4% in August, above the Fed’s 2% target.

“We think it would be difficult for the Fed to leave rates unchanged this week without eroding its inflation-fighting credibility,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

This summer, markets began to doubt whether Warsh’s tough talk on inflation would be followed by action. Those doubts eased last month, when he gave a high-profile speech that markets took as a sign he’d be willing to hike rates.

A sudden shift back from Warsh “risks a sharp and disorderly” reaction in bond markets, wrote Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America.

Bond markets are already jittery. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield temporarily breached 5% before settling back down on Monday. It’s risen sharply from below 4.5% in early July and less than 4% before the Iran war. Mortgage rates are following along, sending the average 30-year mortgage rate above 7% last week.

A hawkish message from Warsh could help yields simmer down, Cabana wrote, since he’d show bond investors he’s willing to follow through on combating inflation. That points to a trade-off for the Fed—raising short-term rates today could lower long-term rates by reducing investors’ inflation worries over the decades ahead.

“Our best guess is that Warsh delivers a hawkish hike,” Cabana wrote.

Some analysts believe more rate hikes may not be necessary after Wednesday. 

Higher oil prices are a clear risk to inflation, wrote James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist. But there are other factors that should help inflation return to 2% next year, he wrote, citing soft jobs growth, subdued wage pressures, “stagnant” housing markets and tariff refunds helping companies avoid price-hikes.

“We think this is a recalibration of Fed policy, not a new cycle,” Knightley wrote.

Others disagree. It is “time to get going” on rate hikes, wrote Peter Williams, an economist at 22V Research, who sees the Fed hiking again in December and in the first half of 2027. 

“Growth is solid-to-strong, the consumer has been remarkably robust, the AI boom rolls on, supply shocks continue hitting the global economy, and financial conditions remain easy overall,” Williams wrote.

Assuming the Fed hikes, reporters will undoubtedly ask Warsh whether to expect more action. They may not get many clues, given Warsh’s skepticism about giving markets a roadmap of Fed policy, wrote Oscar Muñoz, head of U.S. economics at TD Securities. But Warsh’s messaging could be helpful nonetheless.

“Warsh is unlikely to provide forward guidance, but if he continues to pound the table on inflation, markets could take this as an indication that further hikes are likely,” Muñoz wrote.

Fed officials are likely to have that same one-and-done debate at their two-day meeting. 

Markets will get a glimpse of the Fed’s 19-member committee’s leanings through the quarterly “dot plot,” which shows officials’ individual forecasts. 

Warsh, a dot plot skeptic, has opted against a forecast of his own in the past. But the 18 other officials’ dots  “will be instrumental in guiding market expectations for the final two meetings of 2026,” wrote BMO Capital Markets’ Lyngen. 

The Fed will meet next in late October—just before the midterm elections—and again in early December. 

The median forecast tends to get the headlines, since it shows the middle-of-the-road view among Fed officials. Just as important, however, is whether the dots will show a Fed that’s “become increasingly polarized” if the dot plot shows two clear camps, Lyngen wrote. That could make future decisions harder to read.

The Fed’s hawkish camp has been vocal, with three voting against the July decision to leave rates unchanged. More dovish members include New York Fed President John Williams, who said this month he saw “encouraging” signs that the energy price shock isn’t spilling over.

If the latter camp is larger-than-expected—and the dot plot suggests the Fed may not raise rates again after all—Warsh may be forced to emphasize Wednesday’s hike may not be the last to appease markets.

“In this scenario, it will be important for the Fed to reinforce the message that it will continue to be tough on inflation and further action isn’t ruled out—about as much ‘forward guidance’ one can expect from Fed Chair Warsh,” wrote James Egelhof, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. “Absent that, there is a risk that credibility concerns mount.”

News of the day for Sept. 15, 2026

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as bond yields and oil prices continue rising; the yield on the 10-year Treasury hit its highest level since 2007; the Fed’s policy committee is set to begin a two-day meeting, with a decision on interest rates coming tomorrow afternoon; bitcoin is falling ahead of a key Senate vote on a bill that would introduce new regulations to the crypto sector; and shares of Dave & Buster’s are plunging after a weak earnings report. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock futures pointing to a lower open Tuesday as the market extends its sluggish start to the week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were down 0.2% recently, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.1%. The major indexes closed lower yesterday, led by a decline in tech stocks after AI company CEOs over the weekend suggested development of the technology should be slowed owing to safety concerns. Stock market sentiment has taken a hit owing to a steady rise in Treasury yields and oil prices, which were higher once again this morning. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was above 5.00% at its highest level since 2007 (more on that below), while WTI crude oil futures rose 1% to $102 per barrel. Bitcoin was trading at $76,800, down from yesterday’s high of $79,300, ahead of a key Congressional vote on a bill to regulate the industry (read more below). Gold futures were down less than 1% at $4,325 an ounce,

Worries about inflation and rising debt have driven a sell-off in government bonds in recent weeks, sending yields to their highest point in years. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on consumer loans, was at 5.01% recently, after reaching as high as 5.04% earlier today, matching levels last seen in July 2007, when U.S. financial markets were in the midst of a growing housing crisis. The 30-year yield is trading at 5.37%, approaching its June 2007 peak of just under 5.40%. If the 30-year surpasses that mark, it would make for a new high since June 2004. Treasury yields are closely monitored as they can have a direct impact on the economy, notably on the housing market. Rates on 30-year mortgages are at their highest levels in more than a year, which makes homeowners who locked in lower rates unlikely to sell and raises costs for prospective home buyers.

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee is scheduled to kick off a two-day meeting today, amid expectations that the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said repeatedly since taking the helm in May that fighting inflation is his top priority, and recent data has confirmed that inflation is running well above the Fed’s target. The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision is slated to be announced Wednesday afternoon, along with the committee’s quarterly economic projections. Warsh is scheduled to give a press conference following the announcement, where investors will be looking for clues on future rate moves. That said, Warsh has made clear that he doesn’t believe the Fed should be providing guidance to financial markets on where rates could be headed.

A major crypto bill faces an important test today, my colleague Crystal Kim writes. The Clarity Act, which would establish new regulations for the industry, faces a cloture vote in the Senate today, and would need 60 votes to move through to receive a full floor vote. Uncertainty remains around the bill’s future as Democrats have pushed for a clause that would require lawmakers to divest stakes in crypto assets like the ones that have massively boosted the wealth of President Trump and his family during his second term. Passage through a cloture vote could be taken as a positive sign and boost bitcoin prices, which have recently pulled back after peaking above $81,000 earlier this month. Bitcoin was trading just below $77,000 this morning, while a number of crypto-related stocks—including Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD) and Circle (CRCL)—were also in the red ahead of the opening bell.

Shares of Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) are tumbling after the restaurant and arcade operator’s latest results came in short of estimates. After last night’s closing bell, the company said it generated $544.1 million in second quarter revenue, down 2% year-over-year when analysts had been expecting sales to come in roughly flat. Dave & Buster’s also reported a surprise adjusted loss of 27 cents per share, well below the 22 cents per share profit that analysts were looking for. Shares were down 13% in recent premarket trading, furthering their recent decline to their lowest point since early 2020, when COVID-19 upended the company’s business model.

• Fed officials are poised to raise interest rates on Wednesday in a bid to push down inflation, but some economists are skeptical it will work.
• Higher interest rates won’t directly address the main drivers of the current wave of inflation: high oil prices from the war in Iran, tariffs, and the AI investment boom.

The Federal Reserve can’t open the Strait of Hormuz and it can’t get rid of tariffs. Can it fight inflation stemming from those sources?

Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are widely expected to raise the central bank’s key interest rate this week to fight inflation. However, some experts are questioning whether the central bank’s monetary policy can effectively address the current causes of the unusually high price hikes consumers are facing.

At the core of the debate is whether the Fed’s tried-and-true playbook for fighting inflation will work this time around as it tries to push inflation down to its 2% annual target. When the Fed raises its key fed funds rate, it pushes up borrowing costs on all kinds of other short-term loans, which is meant to discourage borrowing and spending and rebalance supply and demand in the economy.

The last time the Fed raised rates, between 2022 and 2023, inflation plunged from four-decade highs, and was nearly down to the target by 2025. Since then, however, tariffs, soaring fuel prices from the war in Iran, and the AI investment boom have all contributed to inflation remaining uncomfortably above the 2% goal.

For months, Fed officials have held the fed funds rate at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the same as it’s been since December 2025. Officials believed the central bank should “look through” supply shocks such as the Iran war fuel crunch.

“Raising rates to weaken demand doesn’t address the root cause behind supply shock-driven inflation,” Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said back in May. “It doesn’t free up trade routes, reopen factories or melt ice. You wouldn’t want to address a bird flu-driven egg shortage by slowing demand across the economy.”

Since then, diesel prices have hit record highs, and more Fed officials have lost patience with looking through the shock. Many now seem poised to raise rates to counteract the stubborn inflation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently used a landmark policy speech to signal the Fed’s determination to use its policy tools to get inflation down to the 2% target.

At the same time, surveys show consumers don’t expect high inflation to persist into the long term, suggesting the public views the war-related price hikes as temporary. That’s important because policymakers view inflation expectations as a self-fulfilling prophecy that can lead people and companies to make decisions that produce inflation if they believe inflation will be high in the future.

Some economists say raising rates now would be a mistake.

“Inflation is too high, to be sure, running above 3%,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote on social media Sunday. “If the Fed tightens to bring inflation down faster, it must push growth below potential, and that is hard to do without layoffs, rising unemployment, and igniting a self-reinforcing negative cycle.”

Forecasters at Goldman Sachs expect the Fed to hike rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday anyway, if for no other reason than to signal to financial markets that it is determined to keep inflation under control.

Some Fed-watchers believe the Fed is likely to raise rates mainly out of concern for what might happen if they don’t: if investors lose confidence that the Fed is willing to raise rates to control inflation, they might demand higher interest rates for treasury bonds, which could hurt the economy at a time when bond yields are already surging to multi-year highs.

“The issue is that three supply shocks are the main reasons inflation is above the Fed’s target – the Middle East war, the AI buildout, and tariffs,” Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. “The Fed can’t directly address these inflationary pressures by raising interest rates, but the bond market is putting central banks, particularly the Fed, between a rock and a hard place.”

If that’s the case, then inflation might remain stubbornly high regardless of what the Fed decides to do.

“Neither tough words nor higher rates will have any serious effect on the rate of change of the price level,” economist James K. Galbraith, a professor of economics at the University of Austin, wrote in an article in the Project Syndicate economics magazine last week. “Entirely different measures, including peace with Iran, detente with China and Russia, and strategic controls over prices and profits, would be required. These are not within the Federal Reserve’s authority.”

Episode 312 of the Investopedia Express Podcast With Caleb Silver (Sept. 14, 2026)

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Our central bank finds itself in a tough spot as inflation ticks higher and the Treasury Secretary unsuccessfully tries to suppress bond yields, leading many to wonder whether Fed policy matters much these days. With the FOMC’s interest-rate decision set for this week, Liz Thomas of SoFi drops in with her perspective and highlights the most important indicators to watch through the balance of the year.

Plus, stocks have almost never been this expensive, historically speaking, yet they’re looking like a bargain when viewed through the lens of the future. Does the forward P/E ratio outweigh the CAPE ratio? That’s the bet we’re making as investors.

• Get more market insights from Caleb and Investopedia on Substack: Value Add by Investopedia.

• The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, marking the first hike since July 2023.
• Higher bond yields could make government debt more attractive than stocks and increase borrowing costs for homebuyers.
• Historically, bond yields tend to rise during rate hike cycles, with only one exception since 2004.

Markets are bracing for a widely expected rate hike on Wednesday.

Traders are positioned for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, which would be the first rate hike since July 2023. Many Fed watchers expect the move to start a hiking cycle that could weigh on stocks in the near term and, according to one major bank, push bond yields higher over the coming 12 months. 

Surging bond yields can make government debt more attractive than stocks and other risk assets, which can weigh on U.S. equities. And because mortgage rates tend to closely track the 10-year, higher yields can make homebuying a more expensive proposition. 

History shows that most hiking cycles tend to move 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by an average of about 1.14 percentage points one year after the start of a cycle, according to a Deutsche Bank report published on Monday.

The good news: If this hiking cycle ends up being a “baby cycle”—the bank’s economists expect this one will be less aggressive than in past years—bond yields could rise less dramatically, per Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of macro research.

That the starting point is already high, with bond traders driving 10-year yields to as high as 5% early Monday, could contribute a more modest impact on yields, according to Deutsche Bank—or a rise of seven-tenths of a percentage point, Reid said. 

But history says not to expect yields to drop. The only time yields fell over the course of the first year after the start of a rate hike cycle was in 2004, according to the Deutsche report. 

“So it’s not usually a positive for rates when the Fed hikes but there are some reasons why this cycle might be better than many other for yields,” Reid said.