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The only confirmed recent payments include specific one-time bonuses for military members and routine tax refunds, while COVID-era stimulus payments are no longer available to claim.
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Key Takeaways

• No new federal stimulus payments have been approved for 2026, despite proposals like a $2,000 “tariff dividend.”
• Proposed payments tied to tariff revenues or government spending cuts are unlikely.

Early in his administration, Trump created the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, giving Tesla CEO Elon Musk a leading role in slashing government spending.

Musk promoted the possibility of a “DOGE” dividend paid to Americans from savings generated by government spending cuts. Early figures suggested that those who pay federal income taxes would receive $5,000 each.

But DOGE's work resulted in far less savings than Musk projected, and after Musk left DOGE in May, any administration push for a DOGE stimulus check seemed to go with him. 

Is There a $1,776 Stimulus Check for Military Members?

Almost 1.5 million service members in 2025 received a one-time “Warrior Dividend” bonus of $1,776.

The figure was meant to recall the year of the country's founding for its 250th anniversary in 2026, according to the Department of Defense. Those checks don’t need to be reported to the IRS as income. Members of the U.S. Coast Guard received a corresponding “Devotion to Duty” check in December.

However, similar payments haven't been announced for 2026.

Can You Still Get a COVID Stimulus Check?

In December 2024, the IRS began automatically sending payments of up to $1,400 to people who hadn't claimed the 2021 Recovery Rebate Credit on their tax returns.

Anyone else who qualified had until April 15, 2025, to file a claim. That deadline has passed, and no further Covid-era stimulus payments are available.

Other Rumored Stimulus Checks

Claims have circulated online about upcoming stimulus payments in specific dollar amounts, including $1,702 and $1,390. Neither figure has any basis in fact—Congress isn't considering, and hasn't approved, any such stimulus payments.

The $1,702 figure appears to stem from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend, an annual payment to Alaska residents, not a federal stimulus check. The fund paid that amount in 2024.

Home Depot executives expect discretionary big-ticket purchases to remain under pressure this year.
Credit: Mike Campbell / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Homeowners are putting off improvements as they wait for the housing market to exit its years-long slumber, Home Depot executives said Tuesday.
• The housing turnover rate fell to a 30-year low in 2025, according to Redfin, as high mortgage rates and home prices kept both buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Homeowners are hunkered down. Home Depot executives don't expect that to change much anytime soon. 

The housing market has been in a deep freeze since 2023. Most homeowners are reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates they secured during the pandemic. Meanwhile, the buying frenzy those rates fueled has put the average home out of reach for many prospective buyers, and affordability has only been made worse by elevated interest rates and persistent inflation that has made it harder to save for a down payment.

That's hitting the market for homes—but also home-improvement spending. “With turnover down and people still wanting to move, they're not spending as much in their home if they anticipate moving in the next year or two,” said CEO Edward Decker on Home Depot's fourth-quarter earnings call Tuesday. As a result, he said, the housing market is stuck “in more of a repair than a replacement cycle."

Why This Is Important

Prospective homebuyers have been waiting years for interest rates or home prices (or both) to drop in order to make a purchase that's widely seen as the surest way to build wealth. They've been thwarted by persistently high inflation, and now an uncertain job market over which the threat of displacement by AI looms large.

Housing turnover, or the rate at which residences change hands, declined to a 30-year low last year, according to Redfin. The turnover rate, which hovered around 4% in the years leading up to the pandemic and spiked to almost 4.5% in 2021, has been stuck below 2.9% for three years.

“I don't necessarily think that's going to get any worse,” said Decker of the housing market’s stasis. “But we’re certainly bouncing along with what we hope would be a bottom in things like turnover.”

The homeowner’s focus on repairs over major improvements was visible in Home Depot’s results. Big-ticket transactions, or purchases over $1,000, rose 1.3%, driven by growth in its plumbing, electrical, and power businesses. But "larger discretionary projects" are still under pressure, according to William Bastik, the company's executive vice president of merchandising, hitting things like appliance sales. Bastik expects that trend to persist this year. 

Turnover could pick up this year if mortgage rates continue to decline. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is down about 1 percentage point since January 2025, according to data from Freddie Mac. Still, it's above the rate that some economists have said would bring buyers back to the housing market. As of October, most experts were projecting only modest improvements in rates this year.

The outlook didn't put off investors on Tuesday, with Home Depot (HD) shares up about 2% in afternoon trading. Wall Street will get another perspective on the housing market tomorrow morning when Lowe’s (LOW), Home Depot’s largest competitor, reports its own results. 

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, may utter market-moving words on Wednesday evening.
Credit: Lam Yik Fei / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Traders are betting on which words will be uttered during Nvidia's upcoming earnings call, at what price the company's stock will be by the market's close, and of course, whether they will beat analysts' quarterly earnings-per-share estimates.
• The perceived probability that the word "humanoid" would be uttered during the call recently surpassed the likelihood of "tariff."

Some traders stand to win (or lose) big after Nvidia reports tomorrow, even if they don't own a single share—or, for that matter, if they don't own any stocks at all.

Prediction markets have created finer slices of bets around high-profile company earnings, enabling folks to profit on a range of outcomes in addition to the direction of stock prices. A trader homing in on Nvidia (NVDA) could, for example, put money on a bet that asks "Will Nvidia beat quarterly earnings?" and walk away with winnings even if the outcome doesn't move its shares at all.

There are also funkier bets.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Prediction markets have become serious business, with players like Polymarket and Kalshi, but also Robinhood, Coinbase, CME Global, and DraftKings. Most recently, investment shops have proposed putting event contracts into ETFs.

One of them: "What will Nvidia say during their next earnings call?" As of Tuesday morning, bettors have put a higher probability, or 59%, on the chance the word "humanoid" will be uttered than on "tariff" or "Taiwan," on which the odds are 54% and 49% respectively. These types of event contracts would appear to appeal to retail traders, with lower relative buy-ins, shorter time horizons to make a profit, and the idea that, with research, they can make educated bets.

Prediction market bettors can buy a single contract for pennies, and if they resolve in their favor, win $1. If someone were to buy 100 shares of a contract on the premise that someone on Nvidia's conference call— CEO Jensen Huang, say, or some other company representative—says "humanoid," and it happens, they would need to bet $59 to make a $41 net profit.

The lower the odds, the higher the payoff. If someone says "VR" or "virtual reality," which the market recently put a 16% probability on, a bettor could buy 100 shares of that contract for $16 and walk away with $84.

To the casual observer, these outcomes may seem random, and the event contracts on them a wild guess. Some bettors, however, have gotten creative in search of an edge.

An enterprising 21-year-old who placed a bet on the length of Charlie Puth's singing of the national anthem at Super Bowl LX sat in the stadium parking lot with a stopwatch and a recording device to time rehearsals.

That bettors are placing a high probability on the word "humanoid" being uttered in Nvidia's earnings call could have to do with the instances it has been said in the past in other contexts. An Investopedia scan of the term using transcripts provided by AlphaSense shows that company execs said it at least couple of times in reference to robotics during company presentations at conferences from late October to early February.

Chip giant Nvidia's earnings, due tomorrow, are this week's top corporate event.
Credit: Jonathan Raa / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Investors seem more excited about the utilities sector than Big Tech lately, according to market analysts.
• The gap between the earnings growth rates of Mag 7 and the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 is closing, FactSet's John Butters said.

Can Nvidia keep the Big AI trade alive?

That's the question of the week. The last of the Magnificent 7 to report its latest quarterly results is due to deliver after tomorrow's closing bell, an event that could determine the next move for the mega-cap tech trade.

The numbers are landing as the year has started quietly for the market powerhouses: Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) are all in the red so far this year, while Nvidia (NVDA) is up just a bit over 2%.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

The S&P 500 would be up, rather than down, in 2026 if not for the influence of the Magnificent 7 stocks in the broad market index.

The good news is that the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 have been working for investors, with a few AI-adjacent stocks, energy and the industrials sector leading the broad market. The bad news is that the big weightings of the Mag 7 are dragging down some returns: The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which weights each of the index constituents evenly instead of by their market capitalizations, is up more than 5% year-to-date, while the market-cap weighted SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is about flat.

Fears about the future of AI have rattled markets in recent weeks. Investors have traded on "what if" scenarios, research reports and corporate announcements seen as threatening firms or industries. Yesterday, a viral Citrini report warning of an AI-fueled recession and stock-market crash weighed on software stocks as well as those of big tech firms.

The AI trade is alive, but appears to have broadened out to other parts of the market, "associated mostly with the physical and analog world rather than the virtual and digital world" Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research wrote earlier this week in a note titled the "A Loopy Stock Market."

Investors have this year been pickier about investing in tech dips and are piling into value stocks instead of growth. Meanwhile, the energy, materials, and industrials sectors are up at least 14% year-to-date compared to a decline for information technology, according to State Street Investment Management's sector tracker.

That doesn't mean investors are done with AI, according to Yardeni. "Much of the AI capital spending boom will boost demand for oil and gas, electricity, materials, capital equipment, and real estate," he wrote.

Fund managers are more anxious than ever about hyperscalers' investments in AI and are looking for more concrete signs that they're delivering; Agentic tools from Anthropic and other organizations have amplified fears of a so-called "Saaspocalypse," dragging down software stocks and those of other companies seen as having vulnerable business. Some of the aforementioned sectors, meanwhile, may also look attractive to investors because companies in them pay dividends, which can look more valuable as Treasury yields have fallen in recent weeks.

Nvidia's earnings report—and especially its outlook— could help renew enthusiasm for hyperscalers. Historically, the earnings of the Mag 7 have drawn investors in, though their estimated profit growth has been gradually converging with the rest of the S&P 500 companies, according to FactSet's John Butters.

The Big Tech companies' projected 2026 earnings growth rate is about 23% compared to the 493 S&P 500's 12%, according to data compiled by FactSet. "While the 'Magnificent 7' companies are still expected to report higher earnings growth than the other 493 companies in 2026, the gap is expected to decrease slightly relative to 2025," Butters told Investopedia via email.

Credit: Chen Mengtong / China News Service/VCG via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• President Donald Trump is set to deliver his State of the Union address Tuesday evening.
• Ahead of the speech, polls showed Americans are discontent about the job market and inflation.
• Trump could use the speech to tout the economy's resilience, promote his agenda for the year ahead, and clarify his plans to restore tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down most of his import taxes.

President Donald Trump's big speech Tuesday night will be a chance for him to tout his administration's policies to a public that's grown increasingly unhappy with the state of the economy.

Trump is set to address a joint session of Congress Tuesday evening in the traditional State of the Union address at 9 p.m. Eastern Time. Presidents typically use the speech to set their policy agenda for the year ahead and tout their accomplishments.

While the economy has many bright spots that Trump can highlight, public opinion polls show people have soured on the high cost of living and the sparse job market.

What This Means For The Economy

The State of the Union could yield significant news about Trump's economic agenda. He could take the opportunity to introduce new policies, set the legislative agenda for Congress, and provide details about tariff plans.

Ahead of the address, several major polls showed Trump's approval ratings have taken a slide since his last annual State of the Union address.

For example, a Washington Post-Ipsos survey taken last week showed 57% of U.S. adults disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy, up from 53% in February 2025. A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls showed 56% disapproved of Trump's economic record, compared with 41% who approved.

Mirroring those results, recent consumer surveys showed people have become more pessimistic about finding jobs and unhappier about inflation since Trump took office for the second time.

Those consumer worries are reflected in hard economic statistics. Inflation has run above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target for more than four years and has remained stubbornly high, and 2025 was the slowest year for job creation outside a recession in decades.

Still, the U.S. economy has avoided a recession, a serious acceleration of inflation, and mass layoffs despite several shocks, including Trump's tariff campaign and the increasing adoption of AI technology. And economists expect Trump's signature tax and spending legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill, to boost consumer spending and overall economic growth when its tax cuts take effect this year.

In addition to addressing public concerns about jobs and affordability, the president could use the address to renew his pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could spur the job market at the risk of stoking inflation. He may also give more details on his plans to impose new tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down many of his controversial import taxes this week.

With Tuesday's gains, AMD shares have recovered most of their year-to-date losses amid a pullback in parts of the AI trade in recent months.
Credit: Bridget Bennett / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Advanced Micro Devices shares surged Tuesday after the AI chipmaker said it struck a big AI chip deal with Meta Platforms.
• The deal could see Meta owning up to 10% of the chipmaker's stock.

Advanced Micro Devices just scored another big AI chip deal, this time with Meta Platforms.

Shares of AMD (AMD) were up over 7% in recent trading after the chipmaker said it inked an agreement with Meta (META) to provide the Facebook and Instagram parent with 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs to power its AI infrastructure.

The companies said that shipments supporting the first gigawatt deployment are set to begin in the second half of 2026. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed, but The Wall Street Journal reported it could be worth more than $100 billion.

Why This Matters to Investors

The agreement marks the latest in a string of high-profile deals for AMD in recent months, and could help boost confidence in the stock, long seen as playing second fiddle to AI chip leader Nvidia.

The move could see Meta owning up to 10% of AMD's stock. As part of the transaction, AMD issued Meta a performance-based warrant for up to 160 million shares of its stock, "structured to vest as specific milestones associated with Instinct GPU shipments are achieved." AMD currently has just over 1.6 billion outstanding shares.

Responding to concerns about potential dilution, AMD CEO Lisa Su told CNBC in a televised interview Tuesday that she views the deal as a “win-win” for shareholders, enabling a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity for AMD to tie its roadmap to one of the leaders in the AI market.

"We're excited to form a long-term partnership with AMD to deploy efficient inference compute and deliver personal superintelligence,” Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a release. "This is an important step for Meta as we diversify our compute. I expect AMD to be an important partner for many years to come."

With Tuesday's gains, AMD shares have recovered most of their year-to-date losses amid a pullback in parts of the AI trade in recent months. Meta shares, which are down roughly 3.5% in 2026, edged lower Tuesday, while AMD rival Nvidia (NVDA), which reports its highly anticipated earnings Wednesday, ticked 0.3% higher.

This article has been updated since it was first published to include additional information and reflect more recent prices.

News of the day for Feb. 24, 2026

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 800 points on Monday.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Stock futures are slightly higher this morning after major market indexes plunged yesterday amid tariff uncertainty and concerns related to artificial intelligence; the Trump administration is considering enacting national security tariffs on a handful of industries in response to last week’s Supreme Court ruling striking down import levies; AMD shares are soaring after the chip giant struck an AI deal with Meta Platforms; Shares of Home Depot are rising after the retailer posted quarterly results that beat analysts' estimates; and President Donald Trump is expected to focus on the economy and affordability in tonight’s State of the Union address. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Point Higher After Sell-Off

Stock futures are ticking higher after major stock indexes plunged in the prior session amid uncertainty about tariffs and heightened worries over the AI trade. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.1% recently after the blue chip index gave up more than 800 points on Monday. Futures linked to the S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq, which each dropped about 1% yesterday, were flat and up 0.3%, respectively, this morning. Stocks tumbled to start the week after President Trump announced a new 15% global tariff in response to Friday's Supreme Court decision to strike down many of the tariffs that the administration imposed last year. Traders also reacted to fears that big tech firms are spending too much on the AI buildout. Gold futures, which had surged yesterday as investors turned to the traditional safe haven, were down 1% recently at $5,175 an ounce. Bitcoin was at $63,200, down from an overnight high of $65,000 and nearing its lowest levels of the month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects interest rates on a wide array of loans, was holding steady at 4.03%.

Trump Eyes New National Security Tariffs

The Trump administration is considering a slate of new national security tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down many of the tariffs enacted last year, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. The national security tariffs would be in addition to the 15% global tariff he announced in the wake of the court ruling. The tariffs would target a handful of industries, including large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic piping, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecommunications equipment, The Journal reported. Meanwhile, global shipper FedEx (FDX) on Monday filed suit against the government seeking a full refund for tariffs paid. FedEx is the first major company to file suit to recover tariff payments following last week’s court ruling. Shares of FedEx were flat in premarket trading.  

AMD Shares Soar on News of AI Deal with Meta

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are surging after the semiconductor giant inked a deal with Meta Platforms (META) to provide the Facebook and Instagram parent with 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs to power its AI infrastructure. As part of the transaction, AMD issued Meta a performance-based warrant for up to 160 million shares of its stock, "structured to vest as specific milestones associated with Instinct GPU shipments are achieved." AMD currently has just over 1.6 billion outstanding shares. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed, but The Wall Street Journal is reporting it's worth more than $100 billion. AMD shares, which coming into today's session were down 8% so far in 2026, rose about 10% in premarket trading. Meta shares were down slightly ahead of the opening bell.

Home Depot Shares Rise After Strong Results

Shares of Home Depot (HD) are rising after the home improvement retailer posted results that came in ahead of analysts' estimates. Home Depot’s 2025 fourth quarter revenue of $38.2 billion was almost 4% lower than the year-ago quarter, but topped estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. The retailer’s adjusted earnings per share of $2.58 was also better than the consensus estimate of $2.52, while its comparable store sales growth of 0.4% was better than the decline of 0.2% that analysts projected. Home improvement retailers have faced declining sales amid a sluggish housing market, but analysts see tailwinds for the sector this year, including tax refunds and housing affordability measures. Home Depot’s shares were up 3% recently. Rival retailer Lowe’s (LOW)  is also scheduled to report earnings this week.

Trump Set to Deliver State of the Union Address

President Trump is expected to highlight the economy when he delivers the State of the Union address tonight, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the theme of the speech will be: “America at 250: Strong, Prosperous and Respected.” Trump is expected to highlight the tax cuts laid out in the "One Big, Beautiful Bill” while also pointing to efforts to lower prescription drug prices. The Journal reported that Trump is expected to call on Congress to pass healthcare legislation that would redirect federal subsidies to consumers from health insurers. He’s expected to address other affordability measures, including protecting consumers from paying higher electricity rates for AI data center power consumption. Border security and a drop in crime are other topics The Journal reported that Trump will lay out in the speech. 

Salesforce stock has lost about a third of its value since the start of the year
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Salesforce is scheduled to post earnings after the closing bell Wednesday, with traders expecting a big move from the software stock following the results.
• Analysts warned Salesforce's growth could be muted in the short term, with checks suggesting customers are watching their spending.

Salesforce is slated to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, with traders anticipating a big move from the software giant's stock in the days that follow.

Based on current options pricing, traders expect Salesforce (CRM) stock could swing up to 9% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that magnitude from Monday's close could bring the stock back above $194, recovering some of its recent losses, or drag it down to $162, its lowest level in three years.

Salesforce's stock has lost about a third of its value since the start of the year amid a broader rout in software stocks after new AI tools from Anthropic added fuel to worries about the technology's potential to disrupt the industry. 

Why This Matters to Investors

Salesforce could have an opportunity Wednesday to improve sentiment around its stock, if it can show strong demand for its AI offerings, and convince investors of its ability to defend against competition in the space.

Analysts at UBS and Oppenheimer recently cut their price targets for Salesforce to $200 and $275, respectively, ahead of Wednesday's results. They suggested Salesforce's growth could be muted in the short term as the company faces some headwinds from growing competition and field checks suggested customers may be watching their spending.

Salesforce is seen reporting adjusted earnings per share of $3.05 on a 12% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $11.18 billion for the fourth quarter, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Analysts have largely stayed bullish on Salesforce despite the software giant's recent slump. Of the 20 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, 15 have "buy" or equivalent ratings compared to five "hold" ratings. Their average price target of $313 would imply upside of more than 75% from Monday's close.

Nvidia's results could have implications for a broad swath of investors
Credit: Oleksandr Holovin / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia is set to report earnings after Wednesday's closing bell, with traders anticipating volatility in the wake of the results.
• The company's size and influence means the market reaction to the results could have wide-reaching implications for investors.

A lot is riding on this week's earnings report from Nvidia.

A strong showing from the company at the heart of the AI boom, due after the closing bell today, could serve to restore confidence in some previously high-flying corners of the AI trade that have flagged in recent months.

But there's also a chance Nvidia's (NVDA) stock could be primed for punishment with anything less than blockbuster results. That could add to recent volatility and build on the AI overhang on the U.S. equity market that has kicked off the year.

Why This Matters for Investors

Nvidia's results could have implications not only for its stock, but a wide range of others tied to the AI boom, amplifying its sway on broader markets and the portfolios of many investors.

Some investors are already bracing for heightened volatility in the wake of the results. Options pricing suggests traders expect Nvidia shares could move close to 6% in either direction by the end of the week. Where Nvidia's stock goes, others in the industry or tied to the AI trade could follow.

With the stock—Nvidia is the world's most valuable company, with a market capitalization well above $4 trillion—accounting for roughly 8% of the S&P 500, such a swing could impact the market broadly.

That means even if you don't hold Nvidia's stock directly, its results could still affect your portfolio if you're exposed to funds that track it. (That's likely, since many investors hold broad-market index funds that include Nvidia.) Current options pricing indicates traders expect the S&P 500 could move 1% in either direction by the end of the week.

Nvidia's results have tended to be sell-the-news events. The stock slid the day after the report in three of the last four quarters, despite better-than-expected results. However, the shares have typically gained in the months that followed. Most analysts tracked by Visible Alpha remain bullish on the stock, anticipating a full recovery to its October highs and more in the next 12 months.

Nvidia shares were up 2% around $197 in recent trading ahead of the company's results. (Read today's full markets roundup from Investopedia here.) Still, the stock has lost more than 5% from its late-October record.

UPDATE—Feb. 25, 2026: This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent analyst estimates and prices. 

Stocks plunged on Monday as investors digested the latest developments related to tariffs.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Stocks fell sharply to start the week after President Trump announced new tariffs in response to a Supreme Court decision on Friday to strike down many of the sweeping import taxes he had imposed last year.
• The Supreme Court ruling raised questions about the likelihood of tariff refunds, the validity of bilateral trade deals negotiated last year, and how the Trump administration will revive its tariff agenda.

The Supreme Court on Friday threw a wrench in the gears of President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape global trade, and ratcheted up uncertainty on Wall Street. 

In a 6-3 decision, the justices ruled the president exceeded his authority when he invoked emergency powers to unilaterally impose tariffs on imports from most of the world. The ruling struck down those tariffs and ordered lower courts to resolve the matter of if, when, and how to distribute refunds. Trump has announced a new round of tariffs in response.

“This is a moment of great uncertainty and volatility—not just for consumers, not just for businesses, but also for our trading partners,” Natasha Sarin, Yale Law School professor and founder of the Yale Budget Lab, told CNBC on Monday. 

Why This Is Important to Investors

Uncertainty about tariffs was a major stock market overhang throughout the first half of last year. Stocks climbed to record highs in the second half as the fog cleared, but Friday's Supreme Court ruling has revived trade-related headwinds.

To a certain extent, the decision turned the clock back to last spring, when markets were rattled by uncertainty about tariff rates and their impact on the economy.

After gaining ground last week, major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Monday amid the renewed uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, or more than 800 points, while the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 1% and 1.1%, respectively. (Read Investopedia's coverage of the today's trading action here.)

Investors have been heartened by how little tariffs have affected prices and profit margins in the past year. Inflation has accelerated in recent months, but less than many predicted. And the S&P 500 is on track to report earnings grew by double digits in the fourth quarter. 

“The markets have been celebrating a lack of impact from tariffs for much of the last several months,” said Gina Martin Adams, Chief Market Strategist at HB Wealth. “Thus, there is little expected impact of tariffs embedded in market prices.”

Trump’s unwavering commitment to tariffs is a key reason why investors didn't celebrate the Supreme Court's ruling on Friday. The White House immediately began working to side-step the court’s decision, announcing a temporary 10% global tariff that it raised to 15% on Saturday. The new tariff will need Congressional approval to last longer than 150 days. 

The court’s ruling also raises questions about the trade deals that countries around the world negotiated in order to avoid the struck-down tariffs. The European Parliament on Monday reportedly paused the process to ratify its trade deal, citing uncertainty about the U.S. trade regime.

Trump took to Truth Social on Monday to threaten higher tariffs on any country that “wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous" Supreme Court decision.

Tom Cooney, international policy advisor at Capital Group, said he doesn’t expect countries with existing trade deals, like the U.K., Japan and Vietnam, to seek to renegotiate those deals in light of last week’s ruling. The administration, he argues, still has substantial leverage, both related to trade and not. 

Meanwhile, unanswered questions about tariff refunds could hang over markets for some time. Cooney estimates refund lawsuits from importers and consumer groups “are likely to tie up lower courts for several years.”

Experts say the Trump administration is likely to pursue tariffs under sturdier legal authorities than the emergency powers invoked last year. Some predict the new tariffs will bring rates close to where they were before the court’s ruling.

Capital Group forecasts Trump’s replacement tariffs will push the effective rate up to a range of 13% to 14%, just a few percentage points below its average in recent months. Evercore ISI calculates about 90% of the vacated tariffs can be restored.

The revival of tariffs by other means is one reason “we wouldn’t chase any rebounds in import-heavy consumer retailers,” wrote Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, in a note Friday. Recent trading activity suggests many on Wall Street are thinking the same thing. Consumer discretionary stocks—some of the equities most directly impacted by tariffs—were sharply lower on Monday after rising modestly Friday.