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The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release jobs data as scheduled this week.

Thomas Fuller / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• A key government jobs report due Friday is being delayed by the partial government shutdown that began Saturday.
  
• The report on job creation and unemployment will be rescheduled when the shutdown ends.
  
• The data delay could be a mini version of the data blackout that took hold last year when the government was closed for a record 43 days, delaying and disrupting the work of the government's statistical agencies.
  

Once again, a government shutdown is delaying key economic data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will delay the release of data, including this Friday's report on job creation and unemployment, until after the current government shutdown is over, the bureau said in a statement Monday.

"Due to the partial federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will suspend data collection, processing, and dissemination," Emily Liddel, an associate commissioner at the bureau, said in an emailed statement. "The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding."

The delay of key economic data is one side-effect of the partial shutdown that began this Saturday. The current shutdown could end soon: A compromise measure passed in the Senate on Saturday, and the House of Representatives could vote to reopen the government as soon as Tuesday.

What This Means For The Economy

If the shutdown is not resolved soon, decision makers, including officials at the Federal Reserve, could once again be without important data, hindering their ability to manage the nation's monetary policy.

Although the current shutdown may be a blip compared to the record-setting 43-day closure in November and October, it is happening at a key time for economic data. The upcoming January jobs report, whenever it's released, will shed light on whether the labor market is recovering from last year's tariff-induced slump. The most recent report, from December, showed the unemployment rate falling, although employers continued to add a few jobs.

The latest disruption comes at a time when the BLS, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and other statistical agencies are still behind schedule from the fall shutdown.

The bureau was also scheduled to release its annual revisions to last year's data, which some experts expect will show that even the lackluster job-creation figures of last year were overstated by tens of thousands of jobs per month.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report and the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment reports were also delayed by the most recent shutdown.

Social Security news you need to know for February.

Thurtell/Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The Social Security Administration is changing its workflow, with agents now taking on cases nationwide rather than just locally.
• A recent investigation found members of the Department of Government Efficiency may have mishandled the Social Security data of at least 1,000 people.
• The government is currently shut down as Congress debates the next funding bill. This will not impact the distribution of benefits.

From changes to the Social Security Administration workflow to what happens to benefits during a government shutdown, here is what you need to know about Social Security for February.

Why This Matters

Most Social Security beneficiaries live on a fixed income, so knowing what is happening to their benefits and what may be changing is essential for many.

Upcoming Changes Coming To The Social Security Administration

The Social Security Administration is changing the way its agents take on cases for beneficiaries starting on March 7.

In 2025, the SSA cut 7,151 employees, or about 12.5% of the total workforce. So far in 2026, the agency has cut an additional 450 workers, according to the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.

To help SSA employees manage their workload with a smaller workforce, the agency is implementing changes next month to how it distributes work and processes claims. In general, SSA agents will move away from handling only local cases and toward handling cases from across the country.

The changes will improve staff efficiency and increase the availability of staff members to help beneficiaries over the phone or in person, a spokesperson from SSA wrote in an email.

”Our community-based Field Offices will remain our front-line, serving over 330 million Americans," the spokesperson said. "The changes we are implementing...will empower staff in our Field Offices to focus on in-person service, while specialized teams manage complex cases."

However, some SSA workers said they were worried these workforce management changes would be too complicated, add a heavier workload and lead to more mistakes, now that agents need to learn the different state and local laws for Social Security beneficiaries nationwide, according to the Federal News Network.

Your Social Security Data May Have Been Mishandled

The Department of Justice said, as part of an ongoing investigation, that former members of the Department of Government Efficiency had access to and shared sensitive Social Security information through non-secure platforms.

The DOJ confirmed in a court filing from Jan. 16 that an SSA DOGE worker shared sensitive Social Security data, including names and addresses of about 1,000 people, via email to other DOGE and federal employees. In addition, members of the SSA DOGE team shared Social Security data through the third-party server, Cloudflare.

"Cloudflare is not approved for storing SSA data and when used in this manner is outside SSA’s security protocols," said the court filing. "SSA has not been able to determine exactly what data were shared to Cloudflare or whether the data still exist on the server. "

The DOJ also confirmed that one DOGE employee at SSA agreed to help a political advocacy group whose "aim was to find evidence of voter fraud and to overturn election results in certain States." The DOGE member may have agreed to assist the advocacy group by "accessing SSA data to match to the voter rolls, but SSA has not yet seen evidence that SSA data were shared with the advocacy group."

What The Current Government Shutdown Means For Social Security

The US government is currently on its third day of a partial shutdown as the Senate debates funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

During the partial shutdown, Social Security checks are being distributed normally, and most Medicare functions, such as enrollment and coverage for medical expenses, continue.

For the last 43-day shutdown, about 90% of SSA employees continued working, and half of the Medicare employees still worked. However, some activities that were not directly related to the distribution of benefits were paused during the last shutdown, including:

• Benefit verifications
• Earnings record corrections
• Earnings record updates unrelated to the adjudication of benefits
• Payee accountings
• Requests from third parties for queries
• Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests
• IT enhancement activities, public relations, and training
• Overpayments processing

Votes to end the current shutdown could start Monday, and an abbreviated shutdown is unlikely to impact these functions.

Oracle shares rose on Monday after the company laid out plans to raise $50 billion this year to fund AI bets.

Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Oracle shares rose on Monday after the company said it planned to raise up to $50 billion through debt and equity sales this year to fund its AI data center buildout.
• Oracle is dramatically increasing its infrastructure spending to meet an AI-driven surge in demand for cloud computing and take on incumbents Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon.

Oracle plans to raise billions to fund its ambitious bets on AI and cloud computing. That has the stock rising today.

The company on Sunday night said it intends to raise between $45 billion and $50 billion this year through a combination of debt and equity financing. The proceeds are intended to expand Oracle’s cloud computing capacity “to meet the contracted demand” of its largest customers—companies including Nvidia, Meta, OpenAI, and TikTok. 

Oracle (ORCL) shares, which fell premarket, jumped more than 3% when markets opened on Monday. The stock was recently up about 2%; tech stocks were mostly rising, led by the memory and semiconductor stocks that have defined the AI trade so far this year.

Why This Is Important

Oracle is borrowing billions to meet a surge in AI-driven demand for cloud computing. But the speculative tenor of Oracle's cloud business has made its stock sensitive to the ebbs and flows of AI optimism on Wall Street.

Oracle is undertaking one of the most aggressive and risky AI infrastructure buildouts of the U.S. tech giants. Its backlog has more than quintupled in the past year to more than $500 billion, driven by multibillion-dollar cloud computing contracts that pit it against leading providers Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN). Oracle plans to invest $50 billion in property and equipment in its 2026 fiscal year, less than its larger competitors but more than double last year's total.

Unlike the cloud incumbents, who have funded their data center buildouts primarily with cash flows from legacy businesses, Oracle is borrowing to meet demand. The company sold $18 billion in bonds last September in one of the tech industry’s largest ever debt issuances. 

Some investors are concerned about Oracle's debt-fueled expansion. They see immense risk in the company borrowing tens of billions of dollars to buy chips and other data center equipment when only a few major customers account for the vast majority of its backlog. If the well runs dry at OpenAI, which signed a $300 billion cloud contract with Oracle last year but isn't expected to turn a profit before the end of the decade, Oracle could be saddled with both massive debt and excess capacity.

Oracle executives insist the company's borrowing will not jeopardize its investment-grade status, which could explain its decision to raise half of its $50 billion goal by selling equity rather than debt. Oracle's bonds are currently rated BBB, the lowest tier of investment grade, by major agencies like S&P and Fitch. A lower rating would increase Oracle's interest rate and force major institutional investors like pension funds, which are often barred from owning "junk" bonds, to sell its debt.

Oracle became an AI darling when it revealed last September that its cloud computing backlog ballooned to $450 billion. The stock had its best day in decades, rising 36% and briefly making founder Larry Ellison the world's richest man. The euphoria, however, gave way to skepticism after reports revealed OpenAI accounted for nearly all of Oracle's backlog growth.

Within two months, the stock had given up all of its gains. It continued to slide through the end of the year as the AI bubble fears that the Oracle-OpenAI deal helped stoke weighed on tech sentiment. Heading into this week, Oracle shares were down about 50% from last year's highs.

Investors are scrutinizing Strategy and Michael Saylor as bitcoin's price stays under pressure.

Ronda Churchill / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin's latest swoon is driving analysts' concerns about Strategy, which is one of the biggest buyer of the leading cryptocurrency around.
• The company's paid $76,000, on average, for its stockpile of 713,502 bitcoins. That's not that far below current prices.

A fire sale in bitcoin is throwing some harsh light on one of its major buyers.

Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), is taking heat as crypto markets keep taking hits. Shares of Strategy, the biggest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, are down more than 2% Monday, trading at prices unseen since 2024. Crypto-linked stocks are sliding too: Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), Gemini (GEMI), and BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) are down 3% or more. (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's markets here.)

The price of the world's largest cryptocurrency, which has declined to levels not seen since April—it was recently at around $78,000—is raising fresh concerns about how much Strategy has been spending to stockpile the coin. Bitcoin doesn't have to fall much more from here to put the company's purchases in the red, per Strategy's math, and some analysts see more downside.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO INVESTORS

One measure of crypto sentiment is the treatment of bitcoin buyer Strategy, one of the sector's whales. Right now, spears are unmistakably pointed in the company's direction.

It has been 2002 days since Strategy made its first bitcoin purchase in August 2020. Since then it has acquired 713,502 coins, including its latest February purchase; it hasn't sold a single one. That means the company has paid, on average, about $76,000 per coin, according to Strategy, just below where bitcoin has been trading lately.

Amid a weekend rout, Saylor took to social media to post what would appear to be an AI-generated image of himself in a gray tracksuit and orange headband running in the streets, with the caption: "₿uilt for the Long Run."

Bitcoin prices appear to have hit the "value zone" some experts think could draw investors back in. But it could sink further—to as low as $40,000, according to John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zack's.

Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors' head of research—he is to ether what Saylor is to bitcoin, more or less—could also start to feel the heat if crypto markets continue to sink, weighing on shares of Bitmine, of which he is chairman. Bitmine recently traded around $23, a level the company hasn't seen since the day Lee joined on June 30, announcing his plans to make the bitcoin miner into the biggest publicly traded holder of ether.

Lee attributed crypto's weakness to recent strength in precious metals, which he called "a vortex sucking all risk appetite" away from digital assets, in a Monday interview with CNBC. "Crypto has suffered from that on a price basis," he said, "All the pieces are in place for crypto to be bottoming right now," Lee said.

If there's anything to the Super Bowl indicator, stock market investors should be cheering the Seahawks to a win.

Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The Super Bowl Indicator, which claims an NFC win predicts a rising stock market that year, proved correct in 2025: the Eagles won, and the S&P 500 gained almost 18%.
• Don't let that fool you. Since 2000, the indicator has been right less than half the time.

If your portfolio could take a rooting interest in Sunday's Super Bowl, it would pick the Seattle Seahawks.

That's according to the Super Bowl Indicator, a bit of Wall Street folklore that suggests wins by National Football Conference teams predict a good year for the stock market while American Football Conference victories spell trouble. Seattle, representing the NFC, faces the New England Patriots on Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, Calif.

If you buy the theory, a Seahawks win in Super Bowl LX—or 60, if you prefer—means a good year for stocks. A Patriots victory, the story goes, means stocks will fall.

Traders have all kinds of adages, most of them based on fairly straightforward historical data: Stocks tend to rise or fall, they observe, over a given time period, when viewed through a particular lens, like the summer break or the Christmas holiday. None of them are absolute locks, but several can seem convincing over time—which if nothing else, can make them fun.

The football indicator, it turns out, worked last year. The Philadelphia Eagles, an NFC team, beat Kansas City 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX, and the S&P 500 gained almost 18% in 2025. But before you place any bets—on the game or in your 401(k)—consider this: Since 2000, the indicator was right only 46% of the time. You'd do as well to flip a coin.

So, who's expected to win this time? Recent sportsbook odds suggest that the betting public favors the Seahawks. Same goes on prediction markets sites Kalshi and Polymarket.

The Indicator's Origins

Sports writer Leonard Koppett had the idea in 1978 for The Sporting News after spotting the pattern had held for 11 of the first 12 Super Bowls. Not a financial journalist, Koppett wanted to point out a fun coincidence, not give investment advice.

"I meant the whole thing as a satire on the fallibility of human statistical reasoning," Koppett told the Wall Street Journal in 2001. "It's too stupid to believe."

Stupid or not, the indicator kept working. Through the late 1990s, it had a success rate above 90%. Full-year returns for the index were also slightly better when NFC teams won, according to Carson Investment Group data.

Like Most Coincidences, the Indicator Worked Until It Didn't

Every spurious correlation looks like prophecy until it doesn't. For decades, it did for the Super Bowl indicator.

Then came the dot-com bust, and the indicator's hot streak was over. Over the past 20 years, the indicator was correct just 8 times, a 40% success rate.

In 2008, the New York Giants beat the Patriots—an NFC win, supposedly a bullish omen. Six months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed, and the S&P 500 lost 37% of its value. In 2023 and 2024, the Chiefs won back-to-back titles, supposedly bearish signals, yet the market gained more than 24% both times.

Last year broke the losing streak. But there's no mechanism connecting football outcomes to stock prices, and one correct prediction can't defeat the iron law that correlation doesn't equal causation.

Walt Disney CEO Bob Iger may step down before the end of the year, according to reports

Michael Reaves / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Disney topped estimates in its latest quarterly report, but investors may be focusing on the succession plan for CEO Bob Iger.
• Reports emerged over the weekend that Iger is planning to leave before his contract expires, with Experiences chief Josh D'Amaro reportedly a likely successor.
• Disney shares were down sharply this morning, leading decliners in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Disney shares fell sharply Monday morning, despite a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report, as investors assessed reports about the company's CEO succession plans.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) early today reported fiscal first-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines. The results came after reports over the weekend said that CEO Bob Iger will be stepping down earlier than expected, with a decision on his replacement coming soon.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Iger has told people close to him that he plans to step down before his contract is up at the end of 2026, with Bloomberg reporting Sunday that Disney Experiences Chairman Josh D’Amaro is a likely choice to succeed Iger. Each report said a board meeting is expected sometime this week with a vote to decide on Iger's successor likely. Disney previously said in November 2024 that it would announce Iger's successor in early 2026.

Why This Matters to Investors

Iger's departure from Disney, whenever it happens, will be the second time he has left the company. He served as Disney's CEO from 2005 to 2020, and returned in 2022 when Disney's board ousted his successor Bob Chapek after the stock had lost more than half its value from March 2021 to November 2022.

Iger didn't address who will be his successor in Monday's earnings call, but said that Disney "is in much better shape today than it was three years ago, because we have done a lot of fixing, but we've also put in place a number of opportunities." He said he thinks his successor will be given "a good hand" in terms of Disney's current strength and avenues for future growth.

The company's revenue in the fiscal first quarter came in at $25.98 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.63, each figure beating the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. Streaming revenue grew by 11% year-over-year, while Disney's Experiences segment, which includes its theme parks and cruises, posted a record $10 billion in revenue in the fiscal first quarter.

Despite the earnings beat, Disney shares were down nearly 5% in recent trading. Entering Monday, the stock was roughly flat over the last 12 months, about 40% above the lows experienced last April amid tariff uncertainty, and some 10% off last year's high point reached last summer.

News of the day for Feb. 2, 2026

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, in January, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell slightly.

Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Futures are pointing to a lower open for major indexes as tech stocks fall amid fresh concerns about AI spending; Nvidia shares are losing ground following a report that the chipmaker's plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI could be in trouble; Disney's quarterly results topped Wall Street expectations as investors digest reports about an upcoming leadership transition at the media and entertainment giant; AI software maker Palantir is slated to report results after the closing bell today; and Oracle is planning to raise up to $50 billion this year to finance its AI infrastructure buildout. Here's what you need to know today.

Futures Point Lower as Tech Stocks Fall

Stock futures are lower as investors prepare for another busy week of earnings and assess reports that sparked new concerns about AI spending. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were recently down 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 0.1%. The major indexes finished lower on Friday to cap off a volatile week of trading sparked by earnings reports from several Big Tech companies. Despite the volatility, the Dow and the S&P 500 managed to post gains in January.

Crude oil futures are down more than 4% this morning, trading at $62.25 per barrel, after President Donald Trump said negotiations are ongoing with Iran, easing fears of a sudden drop in supply if the U.S. uses military force. Gold futures are up 0.2% at $4,755 per ounce, recovering some of the ground lost Friday during a massive sell-off in precious metals. Bitcoin is also rebounding this morning, trading at $78,000 after sliding to around $74,500 late Sunday, its lowest level since last April. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects borrowing costs on all sorts of loans, was little changed at 4.23% recently.

Disney Tops Earnings Estimates Amid CEO Succession Reports

Shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS) bounced between gains and losses this morning after the media and entertainment giant topped estimates in its latest quarterly report. Revenue came in at $24.98 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.63, each figure beating the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. Streaming revenue grew by 11% year-over-year, while Disney's Experiences segment, which includes Disney's theme parks and cruises, posted a record $10 billion in revenue in the fiscal first quarter. Over the weekend, reports also emerged about the future of leadership at Disney. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that CEO Bob Iger has told people close to him that he plans to step down before his contract is up at the end of 2026, with Bloomberg reporting Sunday that parks chief Josh D’Amaro is a likely choice to succeed Iger, with a vote expected in the coming weeks. Disney shares were down 2% in recent premarket trading.

Nvidia, OpenAI $100 Billion Investment Deal in Trouble, Reports Say

Concerns around the AI trade grew over the weekend following reports that the deal for Nvidia (NVDA) to invest billions in OpenAI, one of its most important customers, could be in trouble. The companies announced a signed letter of intent in September for Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI in stages as more data center capacity was brought online. The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that people inside Nvidia, including CEO Jensen Huang, have raised concerns about the deal. Huang has told others in the industry that the original announcement was never finalized, and has criticized a "lack of discipline" from OpenAI as it faces mounting competition from rivals Anthropic, Google and others, per the Journal. Huang told reporters during his international trip over the weekend that Nvidia still plans to be part of OpenAI's next round of funding, but did not give a specific number. Nvidia shares were down 1.5% recently.

Palantir's Results Due After The Closing Bell

Palantir (PLTR), one of the hottest stocks of the AI trade in recent years, is expected to report another record quarter of revenue as its government and private contracts continue to grow. Its stock has been under pressure, falling about 30% from the record high set just before its last earnings report, amid concerns that the rally that more than doubled the stock's value in 2025 left the company overvalued. Analysts are somewhat divided on Palantir stock, with the nine analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha roughly split between four "buy" and five "hold" ratings. Palantir shares were up about 2% ahead of the opening bell after losing nearly 14% of their value last week.

Oracle Unveils $50B Fundraising Effort to Fund Infrastructure Expansion

Oracle (ORCL) plans to raise between $45 billion and $50 billion for a massive AI infrastructure expansion to meet demand from its $300 billion deal with OpenAI and other customers. In a release Sunday, Oracle said it will raise the money through a combination of debt and equity, including the sale of up to $20 billion in new shares. Oracle shares, which have lost more than half their value since hitting a record high in September, were up about 4% in recent premarket trading.

Kevin Warsh was a governor of the Federal Reserve in 2009.

Jin Lee / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Kevin Warsh’s record shows a former crisis-era Fed hawk who now appears more open to rate cuts, creating uncertainty about how he would balance inflation risks with President Trump’s push for lower interest rates.
• His long-standing skepticism of quantitative easing and forward guidance suggests he may favor a smaller Fed balance sheet and less predictable policy communication, with potential consequences for markets and mortgage rates.

Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Federal Reserve, left a long track record when he served as Fed governor from 2006 to 2011.

Not all of that history is instructive for gauging his views today. Warsh was a hawk after the 2008  financial crisis, supporting the Fed’s extraordinary moves to halt the panic but arguing for a quicker removal once fears eased.

In recent years, he’s adopted a more dovish tone—aligning with Trump’s view that interest rates should be lower. It’s a dichotomy that market analysts will watch closely over Warsh’s four-year term after he replaces Fed Chair Jerome Powell in mid-May.

“We do believe Warsh will likely be a proponent of rate cuts in 2026, but the main question is whether his former hawkish persona makes a comeback down the road,” wrote Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.

Why This Matters

Kevin Warsh’s leadership could influence interest rates, mortgage costs, and market stability for years to come.

There are consistent themes in Warsh’s years of speeches and remarks at Federal Open Market Committee meetings—where, at 35, he was the youngest member ever when he joined. They’ll come up as the Senate weighs whether to approve Trump’s nomination of Warsh, who was an economic adviser to President George W. Bush before joining the Fed in 2006.

Warsh, now a fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution, has long been critical of the Fed’s growing footprint in bond markets. It’s a view that clashes with the Fed’s current approach—despite paring back its COVID-era bond purchases, the central bank’s balance sheet is now at nearly $6.6 trillion. Further unwinding could raise mortgage rates, analysts say.

Warsh has long worried about inflation, which didn’t pose a problem after the crisis as he warned, but did surge a decade later. 

And he has also shown a pragmatic streak. The former Morgan Stanley banker and lawyer gave the economist-heavy Fed insights into markets during the depths of the crisis—and voted for a few policies he disagreed with to show consensus.

Smaller Balance Sheet?

Warsh was a skeptic of the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, in which the Fed bought large amounts of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

The goal was to bring down long-term interest such as mortgage rates—after the Fed’s slashing of short-term rates to zero in 2008 proved insufficient to revive the economy. He was particularly critical of QE2, the second leg of the effort in November 2010, where the Fed bought $600 billion in bonds. 

The risks of the Fed’s intervention were “unknown, uncertain, and potentially large,” he said at the FOMC’s November 2010 meeting, all while the benefits seemed “small and fleeting.” He blamed the sluggish recovery on “fiscal, regulatory and trade policies” that were “unfriendly to economic growth.”

His skepticism continued long after his Fed days. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed in November 2025, Warsh said the Fed’s balance sheet was “bloated” and could “be reduced significantly.”

But unwinding it could bring “unpleasant consequences for mortgage rates,” wrote Samuel Tombs, chief U.S.economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Making homebuying more expensive would be at odds with Trump’s desire to bring rates down.

And it would require significant changes in how the Fed conducts monetary policy and oversees banks in the post-2008 era, wrote Joseph Abate, a strategist at SMBC Capital Markets.

“Wanting a smaller Federal Reserve balance sheet is very different from practically achieving one,” Abate wrote.

For his part, Warsh noted the risks of exiting QE too swiftly in January 2010, even if he noted he’d personally be “thrilled” to rid the Fed of its bond purchases. An abrupt exit would make Fed policy seem “confused and confusing,” he said. 

Forward Guidance

Not that confusion is necessarily unhealthy in his view—Warsh has long said the Fed can tend to give a bit too much guidance to markets.

“We need to wean the markets from the degree of certainty that we no longer possess,” Warsh said after a Fed rate hike in 2006.

He sent a similar message in April 2025, saying in a speech that Fed officials would be “well-served to skip opportunities to share their latest musings.” Otherwise, he warned, policymakers “can become prisoners of their own words.”

He’s also criticized the Fed for “breathlessly awaiting” month-old, revision-prone data to make its decisions, saying the Fed “should care little about two numbers to the right of the decimal point in the latest government release.”

Warsh’s repeated focus on the issue could shape the Fed’s policy approach going forward, wrote Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tom Porcelli. Powell has been known for “insurance cuts” — lowering rates slightly to get ahead of brewing risks in economic data. But those might now become less common, Porcelli wrote.

“Under this framework, inflection points may become less frequent but more seismic at times when the Chair attempts to change course,” he wrote.

Reaching Consensus

For all of Trump’s hopes of lower rates, any decisions will need to be approved by the 19-member FOMC—where consensus is key.

It’s an institutional feature that Warsh understands, having voted for the Fed’s bond-buying programs despite his personal disagreements. When officials signed off on the QE2 program, Warsh told then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke that if he were chair, he “would not be leading the Committee in this direction.” But he also explained why he didn’t dissent.

“My respect for you during this last four and a half years is incredibly high,” Warsh said. “I am awed by the burdens that you are confronting, and I wouldn’t want to undermine at this important moment the chance that this program could be successful.”

Warsh resigned from the Fed shortly after.

Warsh enters an FOMC with significant division. Some more hawkish officials have disagreed with the Fed’s rate cuts, while a couple of Trump appointees have supported more aggressive action.

The Fed’s actions last year thus got some dissenting votes in either direction, but Powell was nonetheless able to steer the committee toward lowering rates three times, analysts say.

“Criticize Powell as much as you like (and yes, we have been critical of him at times), but he is one heck of a consensus builder, carefully crafting and selling his message to members ahead of meetings,” Wells Fargo’s Porcelli wrote. “This will be critical for Warsh.”

The U.S. is on track for slow job growth in 2026, according to forecasters.

Maskot/ Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. is on track for slow job growth in 2026, according to forecasters.
  
• Tariff-related uncertainty is curtailing hiring, and it's possible A.I. adoption is also hurting job openings.
  
• Trump's immigration crackdown is also reducing the number of available workers, making it harder for employers to find qualified staff.
  

Is the labor market getting worse for employers, or for job seekers? Yes. And forecasters expect that to continue into the new year.

Several trends have combined to create a labor market that isn't working out well for anyone. Job seekers are seeing fewer openings and staying unemployed longer—the long-term unemployment rate hit its highest since November 2021 in September.

Yet, employers are having a hard time finding qualified candidates, with certain industries, such as homebuilding, suffering from labor shortages. The result has been a sharp slowdown in job creation. The job market actually lost jobs in two months in 2025, something that hadn't happened since the pandemic.

Economists forecast the U.S. economy will add an average of just 57,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, according to a survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

That's a sharp slowdown from the pre-tariff era. In the 12 months through April, when President Donald Trump announced his sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs, job creation averaged 147,000 jobs per month. Since then, it has slowed to just more than a quarter of that level, at 38,600 per month.

What This Means For The Economy

Slower hiring and rising long-term unemployment suggest that employers and workers are struggling to adjust to a new economic environment that's defined by uncertain trade policies, higher borrowing costs and persistent skills mismatches. The job market is decelerating, which is a bad sign for the health of the U.S. economy in 2026.

If experts are correct, it's no coincidence that job creation started to sputter when Trump announced worldwide tariffs. Business leaders and economists say the frequently changing trade policies is a major factor in the slowdown. Without much certainty about what tariffs they will have to pay on what items in the months and years ahead, companies have pulled back on expansion and hiring plans.

On top of that, businesses are increasingly using AI, which may also have an effect on the workforce. Whether employers replace large numbers of employees with AI could shape the job market in 2026.

This fall, economists at Goldman Sachs estimated AI will eventually replace 6% to 7% of existing jobs. However, if past technological innovations are any indication, new careers could emerge in their place.

Reduced Immigration Hurts The Workforce

As the demand for workers has fallen, so too has the supply. Trump's crackdown on immigration has seriously reduced the number of people coming to the U.S. to work. Although economists debate the exact number of immigrants missing from the workforce, there is no doubt that the numbers have decreased significantly.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated that 500,000 immigrants will arrive in the U.S. in 2025, down from 2.2 million in 2024, cutting the size of the workforce. Under one scenario modeled by Fed researchers in which the Trump administration deports one million people, the workforce essentially stops growing in 2025 and begins to shrink in the coming decades.

The Labor Market Paradox

Economists, not to mention officials at the Federal Reserve, aren't sure whether the main problem with the job market is a lack of jobs, a lack of workers, or both.

"It's still unclear to what extent decelerating job growth is being driven by falling labor demand versus labor supply," Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. Economist at Morningstar, wrote in a commentary after the September jobs report was belatedly released in November.

The debate has implications for borrowing costs on all kinds of loans: Several officials on the Federal Reserve's policy committee have said they believe labor demand is falling faster than supply, meaning that the unemployment rate could rise. That could lead the Fed to cut interest rates in the coming year, in an effort to boost hiring.

There is no guarantee that they will, and if they do, whether those cuts will be successful. Either way, that could be the major story for the labor market in 2026.

Cheaper chicken wings might make it easier to throw a Super Bowl party this year.

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Key Takeaways

• Hosting a Super Bowl party for 10 people will cost $140 this year, slightly more than last year.
• Prices for chicken wings are down by 2.8%, and the cost of tortilla chips and frozen pizza also fell, while costs for shrimp, wine and beer all increased.
• An average increase in wages should help with the cost this year’s Super Bowl party, the Wells Fargo report said.

Wings and pizza might not break the bank if you're hosting a Super Bowl party this year, according to a new report on football's favorite snacks.

It will cost about $140 to serve food and drinks to 10 people at a Super Bowl party this year, according to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, up $2 from last year. That's a 1.6% rate of increase, slower than the inflation rate for groceries, which came in at 2.4%, according to the December Consumer Price Index.

Why This Matters for You

The rising cost of food has strained many household budgets for years. With snack prices growing more slowly than wages, consumers might feel less pressure, which can support discretionary spending and broader economic activity.

Other food prices have climbed, but that will be somewhat offset by a boost to average hourly wages.

“Prices have crept up, but the good news is that average hourly wages have risen 3.8% to $31.99, giving party throwers more room to celebrate without breaking the bank,” the report said.

Chicken Wings, Frozen Pizza Are Cheaper, While Shrimp Prices Soar

Chicken wings are one of the most affordable snacks, with prices for the party favorite down 2.8% from last year. Tortilla chips, avocados, carrots, peppers and frozen pizza are also less expensive compared to last year, while the prices of potato chips and nacho cheese dip haven’t changed.

“Big winners this year include chicken wings, chips, guacamole, and veggie trays, offering affordable options that keep the party going,” the report said.

But not everything on the menu is cheaper. Shrimp prices are up by 8.1% to $9.10 a pound, according to Wells Fargo, while beef is $10.01 a pound. The price of beef was up 16.4% year over year, according to the December CPI report.

“The global [shrimp] surplus has faded, and imports from multiple countries are returning to more normal levels and pricing,“ the report said. “It’s a coach’s call, but shrimp remains a star player, even at a higher price.”

Veggies and Salsa Are Pricier

Vegetable prices are also up this year, including cherry tomatoes, celery, broccoli and cauliflower. Salsa and onion-flavored dips are slightly high this year as well, due partly to labor costs, the report found.

“Fresh produce prices are notoriously volatile,” the report said. “Last year’s bumper crop and extra acreage drove prices down, but those savings have disappeared.”

Washing down the snacks will be a little more costly, with beer prices up 1.3% and wine prices also slightly higher.