Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• Tesla is slated to post its fourth-quarter results after the closing bell Wednesday, with revenue and profits expected to decline year-over-year.
• Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla's stock could move about 5% in either direction by the end of the week.

Tesla is set to report its latest financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, with traders anticipating a sizable move from the electric vehicle maker's stock following the results.

Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla's (TSLA) stock could move about 5% in either direction by the end of the week. A shift of that size from Monday's close around $435 could push the stock back up to $459, about 6% off December's record, or drag it down to $412.

During the company's earnings call, investors will likely be listening closely to hear what CEO Elon Musk has to say about Tesla's developments in self-driving cars and robotics, which the CEO has previously suggested could eventually become the company's main revenue drivers as its EV sales come under pressure. In an interview at the World Economic Forum last week, Musk said he expects Tesla could start selling its Optimus humanoid robots to the public by the end of next year.

Tesla shares have hit record highs in recent weeks, despite declining vehicle sales, as investors and analysts have focused more on the growth potential of the company's advances with artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, and smart robots.

Optimus sales, along with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software subscriptions, are among the metrics that would need to grow for Musk to earn tranches of stock as part of his newest compensation agreement. Earlier this month, Musk announced that Tesla will only offer FSD software under a recurring subscription starting next month, in a move that could help the company raise subscription revenues.

Tesla also recently confirmed it has removed human safety monitors from the front seat of some of its robotaxis currently operating in Austin, in what Morgan Stanley analysts suggested could mark an important milestone for the company's robotaxi strategy.

For the fourth quarter, Tesla is expected to report revenue of $25.1 billion, down about 2.4% from the same time a year ago, while adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $0.46, down from $0.60 last year, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Wall Street analysts are divided on the stock. Of the 11 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, six consider it a "buy," compared to three "hold," and two "sell" ratings. Their average price target around $446 would represent just a 2% rise from Monday's close.

Episode 279 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Jan. 26, 2026)

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There’s a through line that runs through the White House’s ambitions in Venezuela and Greenland, and it has all been laid out in its National Security policy that calls for a stronger military, access to natural resources throughout the planet, and dominance in technology and finance. Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy breaks it down and shows us where the money is moving across the capital markets to take advantage of the new normal for national security and economic policy. Plus, institutional and individual investors are "all in," with their bets on the stock market. Is our enthusiasm irrational?

• A public spat, of sorts, between Elon Musk and the chief of Ryanair has drawn attention to both companies' businesses.
• Ryanair has turned the beef into ticket sales promotions. Musk jokingly threatened to buy the airline operator.

All the world's a stage for Elon Musk and Ryanair's Michael O'Leary. The rest of us? Mere spectators.

A disagreement between the aerospace company and the the budget airline operator has evolved into a full-blown public beef as the executives—Musk, of SpaceX, and Ryanair's O'Leary, neither who are strangers to confrontation or shy about making dramatic public comments—have egged each other on in a series of interviews and social media posts.

This round of sparring appears to have started on Jan. 14, when Ryanair said it wouldn't equip its planes with SpaceX-owned Starlink satellite internet service, citing fuel costs and the lack of demand from customers who take its shorter flights. When a user of X, another Musk-owned company, referenced a Reuters article with O'Leary's comments, Musk replied, calling the airline CEO "misinformed."

The public spat between the CEOs resembles their respective histories of using media to draw attention to their own efforts. While they take turns calling each other "idiot," the back-and-forth has likely been good for business in both cases.

O'Leary escalated, saying on Irish radio station Newstalk: "I would pay no attention whatsoever to Elon Musk. He's an idiot—very wealthy, but he's still an idiot." Musk responded to a clip of that interview: "Ryanair CEO is an utter idiot," he said. "Fire him."

The beef continued to escalate from there. Ryanair used its X account to mock Musk, first over a reported outage on X with the comment, "Perhaps you need Wi-Fi @elonmusk?" Musk responded, saying: "Should I buy Ryan Air and put someone whose actual name is Ryan in charge?"

Over the next few days, they continued to take jabs at each other, leading to the airline running a promotion called the "Big Idiot seat sale." O'Leary in a press conference last week thanked Musk for the publicity, saying it boosted ticket sales "significantly."

Musk has responded positively to Ryanair's marketing posts on X over the years, suggesting that he, too, isn't taking the battle very seriously either. (He's also quipped about oddball acquisitions, including Coca-Cola (KO), soccer club Manchester United (MANU) and toymaker Hasbro (HAS). SpaceX did not respond to Investopedia's request for comment Monday.

The laughs have coincided with nifty boosts in wealth for the executives: Ryanair's ADRs (RYAAY) are up more than 50% since the feud started, and while SpaceX isn't public Tesla's stock (TSLA) has risen about 10% over the same period. The back-and-forth has also drawn attention to SpaceX's services before a possible mega-IPO this year—and, of course, given X users one more reason to click.

• New research sheds light on how financial markets respond to unexpected statements by Federal Reserve officials.
  
• Treasuries and stock prices are most affected by Fed press conferences, compared to other forms of communication, such as official statements.
  
• The next opportunity for such a surprise will come Wednesday, when the Fed's policy committee will set its benchmark interest rate.
  

If Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says anything unexpected at Wednesday's press conference, you'll likely see it reflected in prices for your financial assets, especially in bonds tied to inflation expectations.

That's one of the conclusions of a paper by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco who studied what happens when officials at the Federal Reserve say something surprising in their official policy statements, or in the Fed chair's traditional post-meeting press conference.

"Monetary policy news from press conferences—whether in isolation or in conjunction with the news in the associated statement—is a particularly important source of information, with strong effects on Treasury yields and prices of risk assets," researchers at the bank led by Miguel Acosta, a professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, wrote in the paper, published last month.

The paper tracked policy surprises around the Fed's policy meetings, when the central bank announces changes to the fed funds rate to pursue its dual goals of keeping inflation low and employment high.

The research showed that the post-announcement press conference is the most influential source of surprises, far more so than the policy statement released alongside the decision or the minutes of the Fed's policy committee meetings, which are released weeks after the fact.

If you want to want clues to the direction of inflation and interest rates, Federal Reserve press conferences are the best place to look, the new research suggests.

Those press conferences are important to financial markets because they inform the public about how Fed leaders are likely to move monetary policy in the future.

The fact that financial markets respond to the surprises in the words of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy announcements is not, itself, surprising—what's new is how the researchers quantified those surprises and tracked them over time.

To write the paper, the team created and made available to the public a Monetary Policy Event Study Database, which tracks how financial markets respond to various forms of "Fedspeak." The researchers tracked how prices responded, including for treasury bonds whose yields reflect investor expectations for future inflation.

Conventional wisdom goes that if the Fed zigs when markets expect it to zag, prices for all kinds of financial assets will change. When that surprise is in a "hawkish" direction—that is, when the Fed indicates it's going to be more likely to keep its key interest rate higher in the future—expectations about future inflation fall and stock prices go down.

Investors generally assume that a higher fed funds rate will lead to higher borrowing costs, which will drag on businesses' profits and subdue inflation. The opposite happens with a "dovish" surprise, indicating rates will be lower than previously expected.

Fed officials are widely expected to keep the fed funds rate flat at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. On Monday, traders were pricing in less than a 3% chance the Fed would make a surprise cut to the fed funds rate. If there's a surprise about the future path of interest rates, it's likely to come around 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time, when Powell takes questions from reporters.

"Press conferences convey important and independent monetary news relative to the more traditional statements, suggesting that disregarding information in the press conferences risks overlooking an important source of information," the researchers wrote.

• The government is at risk of shutting down again on Friday after Democrats threatened to vote down funding bills.
  
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said his party would vote against funding bills that gave money to the Department of Homeland Security, after a shooting involving federal agents over the weekend.
  
• A second government disruption on the heels of the record 43-day shutdown in the fall could disrupt the economy and economic data collection by the government's statistical agencies.
  

Suddenly, the government appears just days away from a shutdown.

The risk of another shutdown rose over the weekend amid the political fallout from a fatal shooting in Minneapolis by federal agents during protests over immigration enforcement efforts.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats would oppose a government funding bill that includes money for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Democrats have cited concerns about federal enforcement practices, while Republicans argue that DHS funding is necessary to maintain border security and government operations.

“Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included," Schumer said in a statement.

A second government shutdown in less than three months could hurt the economy by again delaying paychecks to federal workers and stopping important government services among other disruptions.

If the bill to fund the government does not get through Congress by Friday, many federal agencies would once again shut down. Odds of a compromise solution seemed slim Monday, especially because the House of Representatives is currently in recess and not scheduled to return until Feb. 2.

As of Monday, betting markets were pricing in high chances of a shutdown. The odds of another shutdown in January surged to 80% on betting site Polymarket, up from 9% on Friday.

Economists and analysts are also bracing for a shutdown.

"If we were having this conversation a week ago, I would have said the government is probably going to stay open," said Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner in an interview on CNBC Monday. "But the weekend changed the dynamics. I think we have to see how it plays out over the week....But a partial shutdown does seem to be the base case at this point."

Unlike the last shutdown in October and November, several key departments would remain open, including the Department of Agriculture and the Department of the Interior, since funding bills for those agencies have already passed with bipartisan support.

However, many government agencies that closed during the last shutdown would once again shutter, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes key economic data on inflation and the job market. The agencies potentially affected by the second shutdown account for 90% of the government's discretionary spending, according to economists at Wells Fargo Securities.

Like the last shutdown, the next one could have a significant effect on the economy and household finances as government services halt and federal employees are sent home. The record-setting 43-day shutdown in October and November, caused by a dispute over health care funding, temporarily pushed up unemployment, likely slowed down economic growth, and delayed or distorted important economic data.

• Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to meet Jan. 27 and 28 to set the nation's monetary policy.
  
• Financial markets expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at the January meeting.
  
• More attention may be paid to the press conference following the interest rate decision. Chair Jerome Powell will likely be asked about the Federal Reserve's future.
  

The Federal Reserve's policy committee meets tomorrow and Wednesday, and officials are expected to hold the central bank's key interest rate steady after a series of cuts in recent months.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to consider whether to cut the federal funds rate from its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of the previous three meetings in an effort to prevent the recent job market slowdown from turning into a serious increase in unemployment.

Fed officials have been divided about whether to cut interest rates to help the job market or keep them high to fight inflation. The Fed's dual mandate from Congress requires it to keep inflation low and employment high, and both have been headed in the wrong direction in recent months, creating a dilemma for the Fed. Lower borrowing costs could help encourage hiring, but could risk stoking inflation.

"A very large number of participants agree that risks are to the upside for unemployment and to the upside for inflation," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the December FOMC meeting. "So what do you do? You've got one tool. You can't do two things at once. So at what pace do you move? It's a very challenging situation."

After three consecutive cuts, financial markets now expect policymakers to hold interest rates steady to see what direction the economy takes, and which problem emerges as the more serious risk. As of today, traders were pricing in a 97% chance the Fed would hold steady, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

The fed funds rate influences borrowing costs on short-term loans such as credit cards and car loans, and indirectly affects rates for mortgages and other longer-term credit. Lower interest rates generally encourage spending and boost the economy, while higher interest rates reduce demand and push down inflation.

Since the last Fed meeting, tensions between Powell and President Donald Trump have boiled over, resulting in an investigation and an intensified search for the next Fed chair.

The Department of Justice in mid-January opened a criminal investigation into whether Powell lied to Congress during last year's testimony on the costs of renovating the Federal Reserve headquarters.

In a statement, Powell said the investigation is “a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.”

The president has publicly and repeatedly said the Fed should sharply lower interest rates. However, Trump said he wasn't aware of the investigation. Despite that, Powell will likely field questions about the investigation during his press conference following the meeting.

The investigation is also occurring amid Trump's public search for Powell's successor. Powell's term as chair ends in May, but he could legally remain on the policy committee after. 

Trump has said he's eager to replace Powell as chair and will announce his nominee early. So far, Trump has floated economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed president Kevin Warsh. However, in recent days, betting markets pegged BlackRock Executive Rick Rieder as the front-runner.

Powell has been asked after multiple meetings if he will stay on after his term as chair ends, and is likely to face questions again this month. It remains to be seen, however, if his typical refusal to answer will change in light of the new developments.

"Powell has not entertained this question in the past when it was raised. We expect he will follow a similar path and remain noncommittal on his future," wrote analysts at Deutsche Bank in a commentary on Friday.

• Shares of CoreWeave soared on Monday after the cloud provider expanded its partnership with AI chip giant Nvidia.
• CoreWeave was one of the stocks hit hardest by concerns about an AI bubble last year, when investors intensely scrutinized how companies are financing the data center boom.

Shares of CoreWeave jumped on Monday after the cloud computing company extended its partnership with Nvidia, a tie-up that last year helped fuel Wall Street's AI bubble debate.

The companies on Monday announced they had expanded their partnership to accelerate CoreWeave’s development of AI data centers operating on Nvidia’s technology stack. Nvidia, which invested $250 million in CoreWeave during its IPO last March, agreed to invest an additional $2 billion in the company as part of the deal. CoreWeave agreed to deploy Nvidia's latest products, including storage systems and a new central processing unit.

Coreweave (CRWV) shares were up 8% in recent trading, leading a relatively broad AI rally. Nvidia (NVDA) shares were down slightly.

CoreWeave's partnership with Nvidia has raised red flags for many investors worried that tech companies are overestimating future AI demand and, thus, will struggle to recoup their massive investments in the technology. Those concerns appear to have abated somewhat as CoreWeave shares have rallied to start 2026.

CoreWeave stock has had a good start to the year, rising 40% since the start of the year as of mid-day Monday. The stock has regained some of the ground lost when AI bubble concerns weighed on tech stocks in the final months of 2025.

AI stocks slumped late last year as investors debated whether tech giants were spending too much, too fast on AI infrastructure with uncertain commercial prospects. That debate reached a new pitch last year when tech giants increased their reliance on capital markets to fund the AI infrastructure buildout that, up to that point, was mostly covered by cash flows. 

CoreWeave, a so-called “neocloud” that doesn't have the deep pockets of hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG), was hit particularly hard by Wall Street’s scrutiny of debt-financed AI investment. CoreWeave shares lost more than half of their value between late October and mid-December when the AI bubble debate raged most fiercely. 

To some investors, CoreWeave's partnership with Nvidia appears eerily similar to the business deals that fueled the Dotcom Bubble of the 1990s. Skeptics worry that Nvidia, by investing in CoreWeave and other companies that buy its technology, is subsidizing the AI data center boom. The partnerships, they argue, are reminiscent of the vendor-financing deals that encouraged telecommunications companies to overbuild fiber-optic networks that sat idle for years before internet demand materialized.

So far this year, the AI trade has been dominated by memory chip and data storage stocks. Shares of Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC) and Micron (MU) have all soared amid a memory shortage, the latest bottleneck threatening to hamper AI development. The concerns about AI monetization that hit data center stocks last year are now dragging on the software industry.

• This year has started off with a mixed showing from America’s heavy-hitting “Magnificent 7” stocks.
• Their earnings, which kick off this week, could shed more light on how they’re approaching their challenges and breathe fresh enthusiasm into their shares. 

America’s heavy-hitting “Magnificent 7” stocks have driven years of market gains. That may not continue to be the case.

This year has started with a mixed showing from the grouping of some of America’s biggest tech stocks, which accounted for over 40% of the S&P 500’s roughly 18% total return in 2025. Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) is up some 5% since 2026 began, while Amazon (AMZN) is up about 4%. Tesla (TSLA), Meta (Meta), and Nvidia (NVDA) are little changed. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) are in negative territory. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) which tracks the group, is about flat.

A more “risk-off” stance as geopolitical events rattled markets earlier this month could be partly to blame, along with concerns about an AI bubble—though the stocks’ recent divergence suggests that some are having a harder time winning over investors than others. Magnificent 7 earnings, which kick off this week, could shed more light on how they’re approaching a range of challenges and, perhaps, breathe fresh enthusiasm into their shares. 

The Magnificent 7 have an outsized influence on major U.S. equity indexes, together accounting for about a third of the S&P 500’s weighting. Even if you don’t hold the stocks individually, their moves could still affect your portfolio if you’re exposed to funds that track them. 

For Tesla, which is set to report earnings after the bell Wednesday, that could mean sharing more about its developments in self-driving cars and robotics in the midst of an effort to reposition its business and the perception of the opportunity its stock offers. CEO Elon Musk, who’s previously suggested as much as 80% of the company’s value could eventually be driven by its Optimus humanoid robots, said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last week that he expects Optimus could be available to the public next year.

Meta and Microsoft, which also report Wednesday, could face questions about their capital expenditures amid worries about their hefty spending on AI. Investors will want to hear whether and when Microsoft expects to be able to boost its cloud capacity enough to keep up with demand, and if Meta's AI efforts are driving gains in its ad business. 

On Thursday, Apple could impress with record sales in what is typically its strongest quarter of the year after signs of better-than-expected demand for its iPhone 17. Many investors are still waiting for Apple to show progress with AI features and devices. Updates about new partnerships or other AI-related developments could help, with some analysts hoping Apple could soon identify an AI partner in China after announcing a deal with Google earlier this month. 

That Apple partnership, which Wedbush analysts called a "major validation moment" for Google's AI efforts with Gemini, was among the latest bits of good news for its parent Alphabet, which is set to report on Feb. 4. The tech giant logged the best performance of the Magnificent 7 last year after a major legal win for its search business, which has seen strong growth along with its cloud business. Citi analysts, who've made Alphabet their "top pick" in the internet sector, said they're looking for its results to top consensus estimates.

Analysts have said they'll be watching to see if Amazon, set to release results on Feb. 5, will be able to sustain momentum in its cloud business after topping projections when it last reported in October. The e-commerce giant's results could also show whether its investments in logistics and focus on value helped it gain wallet share during the holiday shopping season. 

Nvidia, due to release results on Feb. 25, will be the last of the Magnificent 7 to report earnings and likely the most highly anticipated as the world's most valuable company by market capitalization and a bellwether for the AI boom. Nvidia is projected to post another sales record, which could help bring some more energy back into the AI trade, but with expectations already riding high the stock could face a high bar to impress. Investors have focused on profit margins as one of the points on which they scrutinize the company.

• Over 20,000 flights have been canceled amid a winter storm that swept through the U.S. over the weekend.
• Major airlines said they are waiving some fees to change tickets in cities impacted by the storm.

Far fewer planes in the U.S. heard "cleared for takeoff" this weekend.

The winter storm that battered much of the U.S. with snow and ice this weekend has had a severe impact on air travel, with over 20,000 flights canceled Saturday through Monday morning, according to the flight tracking website FlightAware.

Further travel disruptions are expected this week, with another 4,300 flights already canceled for Monday with over 10,400 delayed. Flights departing from or set to arrive at airports in New York City, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C., were hit particularly hard as the cities faced heavy snow on Sunday. Cancellations ranged from more than half to nearly all of the flights leaving from airports across the cities.

Snowstorms and extreme cold can lead to widespread flight delays or cancellations, disrupting itineraries for travelers. Those cancellations can also be expensive for airlines, and negatively impact their quarterly results when they are reported to investors.

Major airports such as John F. Kennedy International and Newark Liberty International are currently experiencing close to 50% cancellation rates, per FlightAware, with cancellation rates at Boston Logan Airport hovering around 60% early Monday.

Several major airlines, including Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV), have said they are waiving fees to change tickets in cities impacted by the storm, with dozens of airports still on alert for where travel is likely to be impacted.

Shares of the four major U.S. airlines were little changed in early trading Monday.

• The price of gold traded at record highs Monday after surpassing $5,000 per ounce for the first time over the weekend.
• The precious metal's recent rise reflects investor demand for hedges amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as other precious metals have also climbed in recent months.

Gold finally hit the milestone traders have been waiting for.

The spot price of the precious metal over the weekend topped $5,000 per troy ounce for the first time, and earlier Monday climbed above $5,100 before retreated later in the day. The moves came as U.S. stocks moved higher to start the week. (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.)

Investor appetite for gold, which is considered a safe haven during times of volatility, continues to be strong. The price of the gold has nearly doubled over the past year as many investors have turned to the precious metal as a store of value amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The seeming resolution, or at least a path toward one, of affairs involving the U.S., Greenland and mainland Europe appeared last week to have marked a cooling of geopolitical fears. Some analysts though, have said a broader issue—a possible realignment of the relationship between the U.S. and many of its allies and trading partners—remains in play. Fresh concerns about the possibility of another U.S. government shutdown also factored into investor sentiment today.

That contributed to demand for gold, long seen as a hedge against many types of uncertainty. Analysts and investors were targeting higher prices for gold, already up substantially this year, before $5,000 even hit. Some were even looking toward $6,000. (Gold first touched $4,000 in early October.)

Oppenheimer attributed gold's rally to emerging market central bank purchases "made to hedge currencies against the U.S. dollar," as well as the expectation of lower interest rates that can make non-interest-paying assets, like good, look more attractive.

"Private investor and consumer concerns about the stickiness in inflation along with expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year have also supported the price of the metal into 2026," John Stoltzfus, the firm's chief investment strategist, wrote Sunday.

Other precious metals also moved Monday, though not all were higher in the early evening. Silver advanced 3% to around $104 per ounce while platinum gained early before ending the day lower.

Gold is likely to maintain its draw, according to analysts. Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, said that $5,000 isn't just a big round number but also, from a technical perspective, a "psychological pull for buyers." Aakash Doshi, globa head of gold and metals strategy at State Street Investment Management, had a $5,000 target; he now thinks it can go as high as $5,600 this year.

"Geopolitical risks and domestic policy uncertainty ... have come to the fore with those geopolitical and economic uncertainty really helping propel the most recent move higher for the yellow metal," Doshi told Investopedia in recent comments.

 The recent rush into gold as well as base metals and rare earth minerals have driven up prices in several emerging markets ETFs that have heavy weightings in metal industries, Ed and David Yardeni of Yardeni Research wrote Sunday.

Yardeni didn't name names, but a scan of big emerging-markets and metals-specific ETFs geographically tilted toward such countries illustrated the impact of the metals rally. The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), for example, with a standard allocation to the material sector, has risen more than 8% year-to-date, compared to the thematic VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF's (REMX) 34% gain.

"This is all happening because rising geopolitical tensions are driving a military arms race, and defense companies need metals to increase their output," according to Yardeni. The firm has a yearend price target of $6,000 on gold, and sees prices hitting $10,000 by the end of 2029.

Bitcoin, which lately has traded more like a risk asset than a hedge, was at $87,400, down from an overnight high of $88,200.

This article has been updated since it was first published to add fresh data and context.