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Events in Greenland have led some market watchers to consider "black swan" possibilities.

Key Takeaways

• Potential "black swan" events include a global oil shock, a breakthrough in China tech, and the U.S. exiting NATO.
• Oil prices, U.S. stocks, and Treasury yields could hang in the balance, according to a recent report from BCA Research.

Investors are always asking "What's next?" These days they may also need to wonder: "What if?"

What if unrest in Iran leads to its government's collapse, shocking oil markets and causing a global recession? Or if China's technology companies have a major breakthrough? Or if Russia seizes territory from a member nation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? Or if, in that event, the U.S. refuses to come to that ally's aid?

Those unexpected risks could send shockwaves through global markets and investment portfolios, analysts say, much as they did during last year's Liberation Day-triggered downturn or this week's Greenland tensions. So-called "black swan" events can be difficult to plan around, but geopolitical strategists have ideas for how to deal when the theoretical become real—as those from BCA Research suggested this week.

WHY IT MATTERS TO YOU

Unexpected events could shock markets and investment portfolios. Having a plan for potential black swan events can help investors avoid making emotionally-loaded decisions that usually eat into returns.

Let's say the Iranian regime falls, and the country's leaders decide to disrupt crude oil markets. A year without Iranian production would wipe out OPEC's and Russia's spare capacity, which could lead to a greater than 3% short-term rise in oil prices and a 10% jump in the following three- and 12-month periods, according to BCA. Bond yields would also eventually take a hit, the analysts wrote.

"We estimate that today's Iran crisis has a 38% chance of producing a massive shock that could cause yields to rise at first, only to fall when global demand destruction becomes apparent," BCA's research team, led by Chief Political Strategist Matt Gertken, wrote.

If China delivers another DeepSeek moment as seen last January, which put the hurt on the U.S.'s biggest tech stocks—among them Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA)—investors may again question the valuations attributed to leading American innovators, BCA wrote, and press on American companies' pricing power. The firm puts a coin-toss probability of a tech bubble bursting.

Another China scenario: The country moves to broaden its reach and seize Taiwan by 2027. While that isn't in BCA's base-case, 20% of the U.S.'s economic output would be at risk if electronics shipping out of Taiwan was halted.

Then there's Russia and NATO. If Russia seizes territory from a NATO member country, it could widen the rift between the U.S. and Europe—or reunite them. Russia "could become more desperate" if Trump sides with Europe, BCA wrote, and escalate the conflict to a full-blown war.

The U.S. might also refuse to aid a NATO ally or effectively destroy the alliance, which the research firm does not foresee. U.S. GDP growth is at risk in the event of a war between Russia and NATO, putting long-term treasuries—of which foreign governments hold a lot—at risk assuming tensions between the U.S. and Europe grow.

Market reaction to international events over the last year would suggest investors dive into Europe's stock, bonds, and currency. With the above black swan events in mind, holding a bullish stance on U.S. stocks and emerging market stocks—excluding China's—is warranted for now, Gertken and his team said.

When "signs that China will stimulate its economy" emerge, they wrote, it would be time to start "diversifying away" from the U.S. In other words: Don't sell America just yet.

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Much of the United States is expected to be hit by harsh cold and snow in the next several days

Key Takeaways

• Much of the U.S. could face harsh winter weather in the days to come, with sub-zero temperatures and heavy snow expected across several regions.
• Natural gas prices, along with stocks and ETFs related to the sector, have surged this week.

It's about to get extremely cold in much of the United States, but some stocks are only getting hotter.

Shares of backup power generator and energy equipment maker Generac (GNRC) have rallied over 10% this week amid worries harsh winter weather could cause power outages. Exchange-traded funds that track the natural gas and energy sectors have soared too, with the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL) popping 34% and 70%, respectively, since the week began.

Other natural gas and oil producers including EQT Corp. (EQT), Expand Energy (EXE), and ExxonMobil (XOM) have also climbed in recent days despite pulling back slightly Thursday afternoon.

Why This Matters to You

Severe winter weather can stoke demand for resources used to heat millions of homes around the U.S., which can in turn lift shares of the companies such as those that produce natural gas or emergency equipment like generators.

Much of the U.S. is expected to face harsh cold and heavy snow through the weekend, with windchill temperatures as low as negative 50 degrees Fahrenheit and anywhere from several inches to feet of snow expected in different regions of the country.

Commodities including natural gas prices have surged this week both in the U.S. and abroad, as cold fronts are also expected to impact Europe and China in the coming days. Those increases could take time before they are felt by consumers paying to heat their homes.

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Larry Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026.

Key Takeaways

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned at Davos that AI-driven wealth generation risks repeating the same mistake as post-Cold War globalization: concentrating gains among a narrow few.
• The top 1% of Americans now hold 31% of household wealth while the bottom 50% own just 2.5%, according to Federal Reserve data, a gap that has widened since 1989.

The world is on the brink of repeating post-Cold War mistakes that widened global income inequality, according to a Wall Street chief—and it might be about to do the same with AI.

More wealth was created in the decades after the Cold War than in any era before, BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink told the billionaires and heads of state gathered at Davos this week. That wealth, he said, "accrued to a far narrower share of people than any healthy society can sustain."

Now AI threatens to do the same, according to Fink, leader of the massive money manager. Those in the room, he said, risked being "out of step with the moment: elites in an age of populism." The test, he said, is "whether capitalism can evolve to turn more people into owners of growth—instead of spectators watching it happen."

Why This Matters To You

The head of the world's largest asset manager is warning that AI could repeat the pattern of globalization, concentrating gains among asset owners while displacing millions of workers. Early data on hiring and wages suggests it might already be happening.

The Post-Cold War Report Card

Globalization gutted blue-collar jobs starting in the 1990s. Manufacturing workers were told to retrain, but many never recovered, and towns that depended on them were hollowed out. Much of the gains of a new era went elsewhere, and these changes helped spark a populist backlash still reshaping affairs on both sides of the Atlantic.

Federal Reserve data shows that the wealthiest 1% of American households now hold 31% of all net worth, while the bottom half of households owns less than 3%. That gap has widened since the Fed began tracking it in 1989.

"Prosperity isn't just growth in the aggregate," Fink said. "It can't be measured by GDP or the market caps of the world's largest companies alone. It has to be judged by how many people can see it, touch it, and build a future on it."

'What Happens to Everyone Else'

Just as globalization emptied American and European factory floors, Fink warned, AI could do the same to those in the cubicle class. "Early gains are flowing to the owners of models, data, and infrastructure," he said. "The open question is what happens to everyone else."

Microsoft researchers ranked occupations by AI vulnerability last year. The top of the list was almost entirely white-collar, with translators, journalists, data scientists, and financial advisors among the most vulnerable. Jobs requiring physical labor or direct human interaction, like nursing assistants and massage therapists, ranked lowest.

"'If AI does to white-collar work what globalization did to blue-collar, we need to confront that directly," Fink told the crowd in Davos, suggesting that leaders drop the "abstractions about 'the jobs of tomorrow'" and make real plans for sharing AI's economic gains.

Fink's prescription, offered in a conversation at Davos with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, was for pensions to invest more in AI infrastructure—the kind of assets BlackRock manages.

"We need to make sure that the average pensioner and the average saver is part of that growth," he said. "If they're just watching it from the sidelines, they're going to feel left out."

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American households are getting squeezed by high prices and wages that aren't keeping up.

Key Takeaways

• Consumer prices rose 2.8% over the year in November, remaining well above the Federal Reserve's goal of a 2% annual rate.
• The personal savings rate hit a three-year low in November, as inflation rose slightly faster than after-tax income.
  
• The report was delayed by a month by the government shutdown in October an November, and economists cautioned the shutdown may have skewed the data.
  

Keeping up with the bills got harder for many households in November and October, as income failed to keep up with price increases according to a new government report.

Prices as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.8% for the year in November, up from a 2.7% annual increase in October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. "Core" PCE, excluding the volatile prices for food and energy, rose by the same amount both months, equal to September's levels.

Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted disposable income fell 0.1% in October and then increased 0.1% in November. The savings rate fell to 3.5% in November from 4% in September, hitting its lowest level since 2022.

The report showed a continuation of trends from earlier in the year, with inflation running hotter than the Federal Reserve's target of a 2% annual rate and household income struggling to keep up with costs. The report covered a period when the federal government was shut down, which put extra financial stress on people with government jobs and may have distorted survey results.

"Consumers are still spending, but they dipped heavily into savings during the shutdown," Heather Long, economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary. "Incomes need to continue to grow in 2026 to fuel a healthy economy. It’s likely the data was skewed by the shutdown, but this is worth watching closely."

The savings rate has fallen every month since April, when President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on most countries in the world. The "Liberation Day" tariffs were ultimately watered down before going into effect, but they and other Trump tariffs have had a significant effect on the economy and household budgets, creating uncertainty and pushing up prices.

What This Means For The Economy

The report adds to recent signs that household budgets are under stress, especially for middle and lower-income households. If people are forced to tighten their belts, it would undermine consumer spending, which is the backbone of the economy.

The report was delayed by about a month, as the bureau and other government statistical agencies are playing catch-up after the government shutdown in October and November. For that reason, the elevated level of core inflation shown in the report could have less of an influence on the Fed's interest rate decision than it normally would.

Core PCE prices are especially important because the Fed uses that measure as its benchmark to determine if inflation is on target. Economists often look at core inflation to judge the trajectory of inflation because prices for food and energy often rise for reasons that have little to do with economic trends, such as the weather.

The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its next policy meeting next week. Fed officials have been debating whether to keep the key fed funds rate higher for longer to fight inflation, or to lower it to help boost the job market, which has been slowing in recent months. The fed funds rate influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, so keeping it higher can discourage borrowing and spending and push down inflation.

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Intel shares have gained nearly half their value since the start of the year

Key Takeaways

• Intel is set to post fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell today, following a recent rally for the stock.
• Ahead of the release, several analysts said they expect demand for AI products to help drive strong results.

Intel's red-hot rally is about to face a big test.

The chipmaker is slated to report fourth-quarter results after the market closes today. The results are due after a strong run for the company's stock in recent weeks that has seen Intel (INTC) add nearly half of its value since the year began. A show of support from President Donald Trump earlier this month, rumors about potential new clients, and some signs of stronger-than-expected demand for its AI products have all added to growing optimism around the stock.

The results could bring further action in Intel's shares. Options pricing suggesting that traders expect shares could move up to 9% in either direction following the results.

Why This Matters to Investors

Tonight's earnings could add fuel to Intel's recent rally, reinforcing hopes for a turnaround. However, rising expectations heading into the release could also make it more difficult for the chipmaker to impress with its results.

Intel is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of 9 cents on revenue of $13.41 billion, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, with analysts at HSBC, KeyBanc, and Wedbush expecting the company to top those projections on strong demand for its server CPUs used in data centers.

HSBC analysts earlier this week upgraded the shares to "hold," setting a $50 price target that is roughly $5 above the Visible Alpha average.

Most analysts have hesitated to recommend buying the shares amid lingering concerns about Intel's business and ability to compete with rivals, suggesting they are waiting for more concrete evidence that Intel's turnaround plans are working.

Shares of Intel were down less than 1% in recent trading as broader markets rose. Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.

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This year could be a big one for IPOs; Beta Technologies' CEO rang the opening bell of the NYSE last year. .

Key Takeaways

• Crypto firm BitGo's debut today follows a number of crypto companies that went public last year, including stablecoin issuer Circle, and the Winklevoss brothers' Gemini.
• This year is said to be a "supercycle" for public debuts with possible mega IPOs from the likes of Anthropic and SpaceX.

This year is expected to be a big one for IPOs. A crypto company kicked things off today.

Crypto custodian BitGo last night priced its initial public offering at $18. The stock opened Thursday afternoon at around $22, implying a market capitalization of more than $2 billion using estimated total shares outstanding, then kept rising. The shares are trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "BTGO."

The upsized offering—shares priced above the indicated range—as well as the warm opening reception signals investor enthusiasm for new listings, and matches the initial buzz around last year's crypto cohort. (Think companies like stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and the Winklevoss brothers' exchange Gemini (GEMI).) That's a good sign for the conga line of companies waiting to debut this year, which includes potential mega-IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—some eyeing valuations that would land them in the trillion-dollar club.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Investors tend to like IPOs, which under the right market conditions can offer excitement around big first-day gains. BitGo's IPO is just the start of the expected lineup of companies to debut on major exchanges this year following a period of sluggish capital markets activity.

"We think 2026 is going to be a supercycle in terms of IPO activity," NYSE President Lynn Martin said in an interview with CNBC earlier this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. That activity, she said, will accelerate in the back half of the first quarter into the second.

U.S. unicorns including OpenAI, Stripe, and Impossible Foods have a high probability of going public, according to PitchBook's recent report. The aggregate value of U.S. unicorns—companies with private valuations of at least $1 billion—was $4.3 trillion at the end of December, the report said, thanks largely to to enormous growth in the valuations of artificial intelligence companies.

Companies pursuing huge offerings and record-making IPOs will be "selective" about when they go public, watching markets to pick the ideal moment, according to NYSE's Martin.

The positive reception for BitGo's IPO diverges from the vibes in the crypto market, which has been stuck in a rut since October and was dealt another blow recently when a key bill that aims to set a framework to govern digital assets, was stalled in Washington.

The latter has weighed on shares of major industry companies such as Coinbase (COIN), and Circle in recent weeks. Perhaps crypto listings expected later this year—including one from the U.S.'s earliest crypto exchange Kraken—will lift the mood.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the start of trading in BitGo's shares.

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President Donald Trump is raising questions about whether Congress needs to approve his plan to send out tariff rebate checks.

Key Takeaways

• President Donald Trump said in a press conference this week that $2,000 tariff “dividend” rebate checks are still in the works.
• Trump also questioned whether Congress would need to approve the checks, which could cost the government between $300 billion and $600 billion.
• Experts said that it’s unlikely that the White House would be able to go around Congress, where some legislators say the tariff money should be spent on paying down debt.

Tariff rebate checks are still in the works for many Americans, and it may not be that difficult to get them approved, according to President Donald Trump.

Trump said Tuesday he may not need congressional approval for the proposed tariff “dividend” checks. For months, Trump has promised a $2,000 check to families that meet an unspecified income threshold, funded by tariffs. Experts argue that only Congress has the power to spend the revenue.

“We will be able to make a very substantial dividend to the people of our country,” Trump said in a press conference. “I believe we can do that without Congress.”

Why This is Important for You

Tariff rebate checks could temporarily boost consumer spending and cushion households from higher prices resulting from import taxes. It's more likely that they'll be distributed if Trump can authorize them without Congress. However, some economists fear that such payouts will cost more than the tariff revenue that's being collected.

However, experts have doubted whether Trump is correct in his assessments of the tariff rebate check process. 

“The president is wrong about who has the authority to spend tariff revenue (it is Congress, not him) and about how spending tariff revenue on rebate checks would affect the national debt (it would increase it),” Erica York, vice president at the Tax Foundation, wrote on X after Trump’s press conference.

White House Officials Point to Congressional Authorization

Others in the Trump administration have pointed to the need for Congress to act on the rebate checks, including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and Deputy White House Chief of Staff James Blair. Article I, Section 8, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution gives Congress the authority to levy taxes and decide how the money collected is spent.

“The president cannot unilaterally cut checks to taxpayers,” wrote Cato Institution researchers Colin Grabow and Clark Packard in November. “Under the Constitution’s appropriations clause, only Congress can authorize such spending. That is why even the deputy White House chief of staff has conceded that congressional approval is likely necessary.”

The White House may be trying to circumvent Congress because some members are skeptical of the president’s proposal, arguing that the revenue from tariffs should be applied to the nation’s $38 trillion debt. Trump has acknowledged that tariff revenues should be used to reduce America’s debt, though he’s said that there will be enough money for a tariff “dividend" as well.

“We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in November. “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

And while Trump has said that tariffs are bringing in “trillions” to the U.S., some have said he is counting private investments as tariff revenue. U.S. Customs and Border Protection said tariffs brought in $216 billion in revenue in the 2025 fiscal year, which ended in September.

So far, tariffs have brought in just over $90 billion in the first three months of the 2026 fiscal year. Economists have forecasted that a tariff rebate check program could cost between $300 billion and $600 billion, depending on how the checks are distributed.

News of the day for Jan. 22, 2026

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The major stock indexes rallied Wednesday as tensions around Greenland appeared to be easing.

Stock futures are higher this morning after major indexes surged yesterday following comments from President Donald Trump that eased investor concerns about U.S. moves to acquire Greenland; the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation is set to be released this morning; Intel is scheduled to report results after the market closes amid a recent rally for the chipmaker's stock; GE Aerospace reported better-than-expected quarterly results and issued a solid outlook for 2026; and Procter & Gamble shares are down after the consumer product maker's quarterly sales came in short of estimates. Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Look to Extend Gains as Greenland Tensions Ease

Stock futures are rising as the market look to add to big gains yesterday that were fueled by announcements from President Trump that the U.S. wouldn't use force in Greenland or impose new tariffs on European allies. Trump also said that he had reached a "framework" of a deal around the future of Greenland, without providing details on what that entails. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.3% recently, while those linked to the S&P 500 and the tech-centric Nasdaq 100 added 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. Each of the major indexes rose more than 1% Wednesday, rebounding from steep declines the previous day. Gold futures, which have surged to record highs recently amid the geopolitical concerns, were down 0.1% at $4,830 an ounce. Bitcoin, which has fallen sharply over the past week, was holding steady at around $90,000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.26% this morning, after jumping above 4.30% on Tuesday for the first time since August.

PCE Report Expected to Show Inflation Stayed High in the Fall

More government shutdown-delayed economic reports are due out this morning, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data for October and November scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. ET. The data is expected to show that consumer prices excluding food and fuel rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, the same as the last report for September and still well above the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%. While the data is delayed and figures for December would have more of an impact, the PCE figures will factor into the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates next week. The PCE report is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Other economic data due out Thursday includes a revision of third-quarter gross domestic product, and weekly unemployment claims figures.

Intel Set to Report Earnings Amid Recent Hot Streak

Intel (INTC) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results after the closing bell today, with investors watching to see if the chipmaker's latest results can sustain the stock's recent rally. Intel is expected to report $13.4 billion in revenue with 8 cents in adjusted earnings per share. Analysts have recently said they expect Intel to beat estimates amid strong demand for its server CPUs used to power AI data centers. Intel shares have surged nearly 50% since the start of the year, boosted by positive comments from President Trump about a meeting with CEO Lip Bu-Tan, as well as bullish comments and upgrades from analysts. Intel shares were little changed in premarket trading, after surging 12% yesterday to their highest level in four years.

GE Aerospace Handily Tops Estimates, Forecasts Solid Growth in 2026

GE Aerospace (GE) beat estimates in its latest quarterly results Thursday, reporting $12.72 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $1.57. Each metric handily topped the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. The maker of plane engines and other aerospace parts said it expects revenue to grow by low double digits in 2026, in line with consensus, while adjusted EPS should come in between $7.10 and $7.40, compared to $6.37 in 2025, with that range largely above the $7.12 that analysts currently forecast. Shares of the former General Electric division were down 1% ahead of Thursday's opening bell. The stock, which hit a record high earlier this month, has gained about 70% over the past 12 months.

P&G Stock Slips as Results Fall Short of Estimates

Procter & Gamble (PG) shares are losing ground after the consumer products giant missed sales estimates and narrowly beat profit projections in its latest quarterly results. The maker of brands such as Old Spice, Tide and Crest said Thursday it earned an adjusted $1.88 per share on $22.2 billion in revenue in its fiscal second quarter of 2026. Analysts had forecast revenue of $22.3 billion and $1.87 adjusted EPS. Procter & Gamble CEO Shailesh Jejurikar said the company has "confidence in our plans to deliver stronger results in the second-half of the fiscal year." Shares were recently down 1%. Entering Thursday, the stock had lost 11% in the last 12 months.

Kabir Jhangiani / NurPhoto / Getty Images

Intel's stock has been on a tear lately, adding nearly half of its value in January so far

Key Takeaways

• Intel shares popped Wednesday, adding to their recent gains amid growing optimism about demand ahead of the chipmaker's earnings report due Thursday. 
• Wednesday's rise brought Intel's stock to its highest level in four years.

Intel's stock has been on a tear lately, as expectations grow ahead of the chipmaker's quarterly results due after the closing bell Thursday.

The shares jumped nearly 12% amid a broad market rally to close above $54 Wednesday, extending the stock's recent gains as several Wall Street analysts pointed to signs of better-than-expected demand for the company's AI products.

HSBC, KeyBanc, and Wedbush told clients this week that they see Intel's (INTC) outlook and results beating consensus projections, driven by stronger-than-expected sales of its server CPUs used in data centers.

KeyBanc also voiced more optimism about Intel's ability to win Apple (AAPL) as a foundry customer, after months of rumors that the iPhone maker could become a new client.

Why This Matters to Investors

A strong showing from Intel's results Thursday could help reinforce confidence in Intel's stock. Despite recent gains, the shares remain off their highs amid lingering uncertainty about the struggling chipmaker's business.

Still, most Wall Street analysts have maintained a cautious tone on the stock, suggesting its recent surge could be premature before seeing more evidence of progress in the company's turnaround. Of the eight analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, only KeyBanc has recommended buying the shares, compared to six neutral and one "sell" rating.

Shares of Intel, which have added nearly half their value in January alone, have already surpassed the consensus price target around $45.

John Normile / Getty Images

Forecasters predict a winter storm for this weekend with heavy snow and ice extending from New Mexico to the East Coast.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• An Arctic cold blast and winter storm forecast have boosted expectations for heating demand, sending natural gas prices sharply higher this week.
• The extended forecast predicts colder-than-normal weather through the end of January, and the U.S. isn't alone.
• It typically takes at least a few months for price fluctuations in the natural gas market to affect retail prices.

U.S. natural gas prices soared for a second straight day Wednesday as brutal Arctic cold bears down on much of the country.

Fortunately for consumers, those higher prices won't impact their heating bills right away.

Futures contracts based on benchmark Henry Hub natural gas surged 29% Wednesday. So far this holiday-shortened week, U.S. natural gas prices have risen about 60%, the biggest two-day gain on record.

Almost half of American households use natural gas as their primary heating source. This week's price rally reflects expected high demand for the fuel as sub-freezing temperatures loom to the end of January in a good portion of the U.S.

Global Cold

This weekend, forecasters predict a winter storm with heavy snow and ice will extend from New Mexico to the East Coast. With that, Arctic air is forecast to plunge as far south as Texas. Wind chills are expected to range from as low as 50 below zero Fahrenheit in North Dakota and northern New England to near zero in south central Texas.

Looking ahead, the National Weather Service's 6-10 day forecast also calls for substantially lower-than-average temperatures across the eastern half of the country.

The U.S. isn't alone battling cold weather. Natural gas prices have increased more than 40% in Europe and the U.K. this month. In addition, an unusual cold spell in China has pushed up prices in the global liquefied natural (LNG) gas market. LNG and pipeline imports account for about 40% of China's natural gas usage.

Impact on Your Bills

To the extent they'll have to run their furnaces more in the next week or so, many U.S. consumers will see their heating expenses increase in the near term. But it typically takes at least a few months for price changes in the natural gas market to work their way through to the retail price level.

In addition, retail prices reflect more than just the market impact of weather; they also mirror demand for other gas uses, such as fuel for electricity-producing power plants.

Shares of natural gas producers have also risen sharply this week, with EQT Corp. (EQT) gaining about 8.5% over the last two days and Expand Energy (EXE) rising nearly 10%. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) has surged 32% so far this week, closing Wednesday at a six-week high.