Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• Inflation was cooler than expected in December as prices for used cars fell, driving down the overall inflation rate.
  
• However, food prices rose at their fastest pace in more than three years.
  
• Tariffs hurt less than expected, with prices for goods other than food and energy staying flat for the first time since May.
  

A key measure of inflation rose less than expected in December, offering some relief to household budgets strained by years of steep cost-of-living increases.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. That was the same annual increase as in November and matched forecaster expectations according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. However, the core reading, which excludes the volatile prices for food and gas, rose 2.6% over the year, coming in below the median forecast for 2.8%.

More tame inflation reports could clear the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to help the faltering job market.

Inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve's goal of a 2% annual rate, but flat inflation is an improvement over 2025. The annual CPI reading climbed between April and September of last year, with economists largely attributing the price hikes to President Donald Trump's tariff campaign.

"Americans have waited for a long time since the pandemic, and now they’re starting to get relief on prices," David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, wrote in a commentary.

The details of the report had mixed news for household budgets despite the overall cooling inflation. A 1.1% monthly drop in used car prices and flat prices for new cars helped keep the overall inflation rate from rising. Filling up those cars costs less too, as gas prices fell 0.5%.

Another bit of budget-friendly news came from a category called "core goods" which encompasses what can only be described as "stuff" as opposed to services, excluding food and energy. Core goods prices, the category most affected by tariffs, stayed flat for the first time since May after climbing steadily. In the pre-tariff era, core goods prices typically stayed flat or fell.

"Goods prices were very benign, which underscore the point that tariffs have had a far more muted impact on inflation than feared," James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, wrote in a commentary. "This is a remarkable story and suggests US retailers are squeezing their profit margins."

Food prices on the other hand, rose 0.7% over the month, the highest increase since September 2022, and shelter prices rose 0.4%, the same as in August and reversing a deceleration in September.

"There were still pockets of rapid price increases in December and little sign that inflation will slow rapidly from here," Scott Anderson, Chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary.

Tuesday's report was the first in months to be unaffected by the government shutdown in October and November. The BLS and other statistical agencies were mostly closed during the shutdown, so the bureau never released its monthly CPI report for October, and certain data from November was collected later than usual or was missing altogether, leading many economists to take November's data with a grain of salt.

Tuesday's report did little to shift expectations about the Federal Reserve's next moves for its key interest rate, which influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans. The Fed is still widely expected to keep its rate flat at its next meeting later this month according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data. Fed officials have been debating whether to keep the fed funds rate higher for longer to combat inflation, or lower it to breathe some life into the increasingly shaky job market.

The Fed has lowered its key rate by a quarter-point at each of its last three meetings, although its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% is still at a level that some Fed officials consider high enough to be "restrictive," that is, slowing down inflation and the economy overall.

"Nothing in the December CPI report will change many minds on the FOMC on the inflation outlook, and we believe most will vote for a pause in rate cuts at the January meeting as they await more evidence of progress on the inflation front before continuing to normalize rates," Anderson wrote.

Further tame inflation reports in the coming months could clear the way for the Fed to cut rates more later in the year.

"With inflation fears fading, officials will feel freer to respond to downside risks to the labor market, should conditions deteriorate," Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary.

However, inflation data, normally highly influential to financial markets, may take a back seat to other factors influencing Fed policy, namely, the Trump Administration's escalating efforts to force the independent central bank to lower rates dramatically.

 "Inflation prints are likely to shift from being a primary market trigger to more of a background constraint as the market becomes increasingly focused on the risks to Federal Reserve independence," Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global Co-CIO of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, wrote in a commentary.

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon in a statement Tuesday called the U.S. economy "resilient" but continued to warn of risk factors—including some he called underappreciated by markets.
• A number of major U.S. banks are set to report their latest quarterly financial results this week.
  

The U.S. economy is "resilient," JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday, but investors should remain wary of a range of possible "hazards" ahead.

Dimon's comments came as the big U.S. bank turned in quarterly financial results that included higher fourth-quarter net revenue and a year-over-year drop in net income. Big-bank numbers mark the unofficial start of the latest earnings season, with stocks sitting around record levels.

"Markets seem to underappreciate the potential hazards," JPMorgan's (JPM) Dimon said in a statement accompanying the earnings report, noting "complex geopolitical conditions, the risk of sticky inflation and elevated asset prices.” Dimon has for some time cited risks he sees the economy facing, early last year warning of persistent inflation and a "dangerous" geopolitical backdrop.

The numbers in bank financial statements can illustrate a range of economic dynamics, including the health of the dealmaking sector, and consumer spending and debt. But investors also tend to listen to bank chiefs' statements closely to get a reading on sentiment about the economy and other factors.

"While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening," Dimon's statement read. "Consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation and the Fed’s recent monetary policy."

In response to an analyst's question about his 2026 outlook during the firm's earnings conference call, Dimon called the macro environment "pretty positive" in the short-run, suggesting six months to a year. Over the longer term, he is concerned about governments' debt levels.

"The deficits in the United States and around the world are quite large," Dimon said. "It will bite eventually, because you can't just keep on borrowing money endlessly."

More major bank reports are expected this week, among them Bank of America (BAC) tomorrow and Goldman Sachs (GS) on Thursday.

Shares of JPMorgan were down 3% in late-morning trading. A number of financial services stocks were pulled lower yesterday after President Donald Trump suggested a national cap on credit-card interest rates.

This article has been updated since it was first published to incorporate fresh market data and comments from JPMorgan's conference call.

News of the day for Jan. 13, 2026

Stock futures are lower this morning as investors digest earnings reports and await key inflation data; JPMorgan's fourth-quarter results were mixed, as profits and net interest income topped estimates while revenue fell short; consumer price data for December is due out this morning; Delta shares are falling after the airline issued a disappointing outlook; and President Trump is threatening Iran's trading partners with new tariffs over the country's response to recent protests. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are slightly lower as the quarterly earnings season gets underway and investors prepare for the release of inflation data that will be closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, each of which closed at record highs on Monday, were down 0.2% recently, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.3%. Stocks came under pressure early Monday on news that the Department of Justice is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but rebounded to finish the day slightly higher. Gold futures were down 0.6% at $4,590 an ounce this morning, after hitting a record high around $4,640 on Monday amid concerns about possible threats to the Fed's independence. Crude oil futures were up 1.7% at $60.50 per barrel, trading above $60 for the first time since early December. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked higher to 4.20%, near its highest level in four months. Bitcoin was at $92,000. up from an overnight low of just below $91,000.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the world's largest bank by market capitalization, kicked off a busy week of bank earnings this morning. The bank reported adjusted earnings per share of $5.23 on revenue of $45.8 billion. Analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha had projected adjusted EPS of $4.96 and revenue of $46.07 billion. JPMorgan reported $25.1 billion in net interest income, above what analysts had forecast. "The U.S. economy has remained resilient," CEO Jamie Dimon said. "While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend, and businesses generally remain healthy." Bank stocks sank on Monday after President Donald Trump suggested a cap of 10% on credit card interest rates. During the earnings call this morning, JPMorgan executives are likely to discuss that, as well as a deal announced last week to take over as the backer of Apple's (AAPL) credit card program from Goldman Sachs (GS). JPMorgan shares were little changed in recent premarket trading, after falling more than 1% Monday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its closely followed Consumer Price Index report at 8:30 a.m ET. Economists on average expect the report to show that consumer prices rose 2.7% in the 12 months through December, unchanged from the month before. "Core" prices, excluding more volatile food and gas prices, are also expected to have risen 2.8%, which would mark an acceleration in inflation after it unexpectedly slowed in November. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and continued signs of price pressures could keep the central bank from cutting its key interest rate again soon. Inflation is generally expected to slow this year as declining housing costs and a lack of wage increases are projected to outweigh the impact of the Trump administration's wide-ranging tariffs.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) stock is slumping in premarket trading after the airline issued a disappointing outlook. Delta said it earned an adjusted $1.55 in the fourth quarter, roughly in line with the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha, while revenue topped estimates at $16 billion. For 2026, however, Delta said it is expecting adjusted EPS of $6.50 to $7.50, with the midpoint of $7.00 well below the $7.26 analysts currently forecast. Analysts had said leading into the report that Delta and other airlines may opt for more cautious outlooks for 2026 after a difficult last few years of operations, and said that the 2026 forecasts will likely be the focus of airline earnings this month rather than the fourth-quarter results. In Tuesday's report, Delta also announced an order of 30 planes from Boeing, the widebody 787-10, with options to purchase another 30, with deliveries expected to start in 2031. Delta shares were down more than 3% ahead of the opening bell.

President Trump threatened a new round of tariffs amid the deadly protests in Iran. "Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," Trump said Monday afternoon on social media. The larger structure of the tariffs are currently unknown, as the White House has yet to release an official order on the tariffs. The tariffs would be in response to a recent wave of anti-government protests in Iran, which has led to the deaths of more than 600 protestors, human rights groups estimate. Trump has threatened to involve the U.S. military if the killings continue, and has encouraged the protests to topple Iran's government, per CNBC. The legality of Trump's current tariffs are also unknown, with a Supreme Court ruling expected in the coming weeks over whether the president had the legal authority to unilaterally declare the tariffs.

• Housing costs in 99% of U.S. counties remain above their historical averages, according to a report from real estate data firm ATTOM.
• San Francisco is a rare exception: Despite a $1.4 million median home price, the city is now more affordable, historically speaking, because local wages have risen faster than housing costs.
• Nationally, 86% of counties saw affordability improve in the fourth quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter, a sign that the market may be stabilizing.

Is the housing market on the verge of a turnaround? Data from one of the country's most expensive markets suggest the affordability crisis may have peaked.

A new report from real estate data firm ATTOM found that in all but eight of 594 U.S. counties, median-priced homes in the fourth quarter were less affordable than their historical averages. San Francisco was among the exceptions.

Despite a median price of $1.4 million, wages in the city have risen enough that buying a home now consumes a smaller share of income than it has historically.

Buying a home in San Francisco still requires about 50% of the median income—well above what experts recommend—but that's down from a historical average of 59% and far below the 84% it took in 2006, according to ATTOM's data.

Improving affordability means lower monthly payments and more breathing room for buyers who've been priced out. If the trend continues, it could also bring more homes onto the market as current owners feel less trapped by their low-rate mortgages.

Nearby San Mateo County also improved in housing affordability. Other counties where housing affordability was better in the fourth quarter than its historic trend included Mobile County, Alabama; Kanawha County, West Virginia; and Fayette County, Pennsylvania.

Housing affordability across the nation remains a significant problem due to high borrowing costs and housing prices.

While only a handful of U.S. counties were more affordable than their historic average, 86% of U.S. counties grew more affordable over the previous quarter, according to ATTOM, showing some relief on prices in the housing market.

“Modest, quarter-over-quarter affordability improvements in many markets at the end of the year offered some encouragement,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “Over the past five years, home price growth has nearly doubled wage growth, meaning homebuying power in 2026 will depend not only on whether prices level off or decline, but also on mortgage rates and broader economic conditions.”

Still, affordability remains a central issue in the housing market. In nearly 75% of counties, including San Francisco, buying a home costs more than the recommended 28% of income.

Episode 277 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Jan. 12, 2026)

Subscribe Now: Apple Podcasts / Spotify / PlayerFM

2025 was looking like yet another banner year for Bitcoin prices until a wave of selling in the Fall sent the cryptocurrency into a bear market. Matt Hougan of Bitwise explains what happened and why he thinks 2026 will be another year for the record books and more cryptocurrency ETF issuance. Plus, the Federal Reserve is slapped with a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice over its renovation project, and Chair Powell claps back. At stake, the independence of the Fed, and the sanctity of the capital markets.

Links for Show Notes:

• https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights
• https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/three-checkpoints-for-a-rally
  

• Apple plans to use Google's Gemini to power future Apple Intelligence features, the companies said Monday. 
• The new features are set to include an AI-enhanced Siri due later this year.

Could a new deal with Google help Apple sell investors on its AI Vision?

The iPhone maker plans to use Google's Gemini to power future Apple Intelligence features, including an AI-enhanced Siri coming later this year, the companies said Monday, ending months of speculation about a tie-up. 

Shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed 1% to an all-time high following the news, pushing its end-of-day market capitalization above the $4 trillion mark for the first time. Apple (AAPL) shares ticked up 0.3%, leaving them about 9% off their highs last month.

The deal with Google could help Apple, which has lagged many of its peers when it comes to AI, boost confidence in its progress.

Wedbush's Dan Ives, a longtime Apple and Alphabet bull, called the deal a "major validation moment" for Google's Gemini and a key "stepping stone" for Apple in its strategy after a series of delays in some of its highly anticipated AI features. The iPhone maker had previously suggested its AI-powered Siri would become available as early as last spring, before later telling investors it would launch this year.

JPMorgan analysts, who hold an "overweight" rating for Apple, said they also see the multi-year partnership with Google potentially becoming a longer-term arrangement, with investors likely to be watching whether Apple will declare an AI model partner in China next.

"In our view the Street is underestimating what 2026 is going to bring for Apple," said Ives, citing expectations the company could make more meaningful progress in its AI roadmap this year. He reiterated a Street-high target of $350 for the stock, suggesting close to 35% upside from Monday's close.

• AI-driven shopping experiences present new revenue opportunities for fintech companies, according to Oppenheimer's fintech analysts.
• Mastercard and Visa are the analysts' top large-cap picks.

Artificial intelligence could soon transform online "window shopping." That could bode well for some fintech stocks.

As AI agents start to manage the shopping experience—from prompt to payment—within a single chat or app, Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are among the firms that stand to benefit, according to Wall Street analysts, with a leg up over companies like PayPal (PYPL), Stripe and Adyen.

The opportunity in "agentic commerce" depends on stable consumer spending, which has generally shown strength in spite of job growth concerns and mass layoffs. However, with some companies reporting weakness in the lower-income segment of customers, analysts are favoring payments firms with more geographically diverse revenue streams and which are more "spending agnostic" than others.

Just as the advent of the internet changed how consumers shop, artificial intelligence stands to transform that experience even further. That stands to produce new winners and losers in the stock market.

"Agentic commerce, though still early, appears poised to be a major 2026 theme as fintechs seek new ways to monetize the evolving online shopping journey," Rayna Kumar and other Oppenheimer fintech analysts said in a Monday report.

AI agents could start to play a more central role in online shopping experiences, curating personalized product recommendations and allowing customers to complete transactions in-app through integrated payment processors, they said.

That could lead to more shoppers using payment processors they've never used before, though Mastercard and Visa are working to make their services the "default" option in automated checkouts, according to Oppenheimer. Payment processors across the board stand to gain as agentic commerce "drives higher consumer engagement and ultimately more revenue," Oppenheimer said in its report.

Mastercard and Visa each have their own initiatives aimed at enabling AI agents to make secure and personalized transactions.

PayPal is similarly positioned and has AI partnerships, including with OpenAI and Google, though its exposure to retail is keeping Oppenheimer analysts in a neutral stance with a "perform" rating on the stock. The company's branded checkout volume growth has struggled in the face of sapped consumer discretionary spending in key markets including the U.S., they said.

"We remain on the sidelines until PayPal's growth initiatives can generate accelerated profit growth and consumer discretionary spending stabilizes," Kumar and her team wrote.

• Meta Platforms named Dina Powell McCormick, an appointee under two Republican administrations, its president and vice chairman.
• The role is intended to "ensure our multi-billion-dollar investments execute against our goals," the company said.

Social media giant Meta Platforms on Monday named a former Trump appointee to a high-ranking executive position.

Meta (META), owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, named Dina Powell McCormick its president and vice chairman. The company said she would help guide its strategy and execution, highlighting work to "ensure our multi-billion-dollar investments execute against our goals," build partnerships, and expand its investment capacity.

Meta's latest high-profile executive hire is a veteran of President Donald Trump's administration, as well as a former appointee under former President George W. Bush. The company, meanwhile, is among the U.S. tech sector's biggest spenders as it seeks to build out its AI capacity.

Powell McCormick, who was named to Meta's board last year, was previously at BDT & MSD Partners, a merchant bank. She was President Donald Trump's deputy national security advisor, Meta said, as well as an assistant secretary of state under former President George W. Bush. Trump on social media called her "a fantastic, and very talented, person."

Meta, which according to Visible Alpha has a market capitalization of about $1.65 trillion, is among the most valuable companies in the S&P 500, part of the Magnificent Seven group of big tech stocks, and among the big spenders and builders of AI technology. Its shares, though edging lower Monday afternoon, are up roughly 5% over the past 12 months.

Meta late last week announced deals with three nuclear energy companies, meant to help power its data center network.

"Power availability is a key constraint for data center expansion, likely prompting Meta to secure long-term energy partnerships to lock in capacity and pricing certainty," Bank of America analysts wrote Monday. "For those that view AI capacity as a key strategic asset, these deals should help support Meta's AI capacity growth for the next decade."

The company is also seeking to build its smart-glasses business, viewed as a possibly valuable access point to AI technology, and evolving its approach to teen safety online.

• If forecasters are correct, consumer prices likely rose 2.7% over the year in December, the same 12-month rate of increase as November.
  
• Core inflation, excluding food and gas, is expected to have rebounded to a 2.7% annual rate from 2.6% in November, after distortions from the government shutdown to the November data reversed themselves.
  
• Forecasters generally expect inflation to fall over the course of the year, because rent increases have slowed and are outweighing continued upward pressure from tariffs.
  
  

If your holiday bills were significantly higher than last year, you're not alone.

A report on inflation Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to show the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% over the year in December, the same annual rate as in November. Meanwhile, "core" prices, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% over 12 months, up from 2.6% in November, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

If forecasts are on target, it would represent inflation pressures edging higher after unexpectedly decelerating in November. Inflation has run hotter than the Federal Reserve's target of a 2% annual rate since 2021, and has been pushed up in recent months by President Donald Trump's campaign of tariffs.

Some economists believe the November report may have understated inflation because the bureau's data collection was delayed by the government shutdown, which ended that month, possibly leading to distortions, and that December's report will show a rebound.

Federal Reserve officials will likely watch the report closely for signs that tariffs are pushing up inflation more than expected. The Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate three times in recent months as the labor market has weakened, but continued inflationary pressure could force the central bank to hold off on further cuts, at least in the near term.

"Data collection issues stemming from the longest-ever government shutdown led to a surprisingly soft November CPI report," economists at Wells Fargo Securities led by Sarah House wrote in a commentary. "Most, although not all, of these distortions should be unwound in the December report."

The bureau was unable to carry out its price surveys until the end of November because of the shutdown, which ended Nov. 13. That's much later than usual and coincided with Black Friday sales.

Forecasters generally expect inflation to fall over the year to some extent because housing costs have been slowing after their pandemic-era spike. Additionally, the faltering job market has meant that rising wages aren't stoking inflation either. Both factors are likely to outweigh continued price pressures from tariffs, according to many economic forecasts.

"The two most valuable indicators for forecasting inflation further ahead—the state of the labor market and leading indicators of rent inflation—now point to lower inflation than they did late last cycle," researchers at Goldman Sachs led by chief U.S. economist David Mericle, wrote in a commentary.

• Walmart is slated to join the Nasdaq 100, an index known for tracking tech stock, on Jan. 20, Nasdaq said.
• The planned move comes as Walmart executives have focused on the retailer's e-commerce platform and novel AI tools.

Walmart is getting the recognition it’s been seeking for its e-commerce prowess.

The retail giant will move to the Nasdaq 100—an index tracking the 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq —before the market opens on Jan. 20, the exchange operator said Friday. Walmart (WMT) has spent months highlighting its marketplace and delivery services, fueling speculation that it was eyeing the list seen as a tech-sector bellwether.

Walmart will replace pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca (AZN). The move comes about a month after Walmart left the New York Stock Exchange for the Nasdaq, which is home to tech giants like  Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META).

Consumer-focused companies from Target to Wingstop have touted their embrace of AI as investors pour money in the technology. Walmart has successfully convinced investors that it's part tech stock, part retailer, and a pending move to the Nasdaq 100 index should bolster that.

The Nasdaq is a better fit for Walmart’s tech-centric approach, company executives have said. The retailer’s business no longer centers around a portfolio of big-box stores, they said, highlighting its booming delivery service, automated fulfillment centers and third-party marketplace.

“The results we're delivering today are powered by our people and by technology,” CEO Douglas McMillon told investors on a November conference call, according to a transcript from AlphaSense.  “We continue to get better at putting our data to work, building more capable tech products, and platforms, and by deploying physical automation.”

McMillon highlighted the “digital acumen” of John Furner, head of Walmart U.S., when announcing in November that Furner will succeed him. Furner will lead the company through an “AI-driven transformation,” McMillon said.

Walmart is using AI to interact with consumers in new ways, including pinging customers on WhatsApp to ask if they want to stock up with a basket of frequently-ordered staples. It announced Sunday that it is working with Google to ensure people can easily find and purchase Walmart products when chatting in Gemini, Google’s AI-powered chat service. The company previously announced a similar arrangement with ChatGPT operator OpenAI. 

"The transition from traditional web or app search to agent-led commerce represents the next great evolution in retail,” Furner said Sunday in a statement. “We aren't just watching the shift, we are driving it."

Enthusiasm about Walmart's digital growth has helped power its shares higher lately. The stock, up more than 3% in recent trading, has added roughly 30% of its value over the past 12 months and is sitting around record highs. Read Investopedia's live coverage of today's trading here.