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Episode 276 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Jan. 5, 2026)

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2026 came in like a lion with the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and a bull market charging into its fourth year, testing investors’ confidence. Liz Thomas of SoFi returns to the Express to share her outlook for the new year and discuss specific risk factors that could challenge our faith in the momentum underlying recent trends.

Plus, it's a new era for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders without Warren Buffett as CEO. We list just some of the accomplishments that have made Buffett the greatest investor of all time, and examine what he has left behind.

Link for Show Notes:
https://www.sofi.com/article/investment-strategy/the-2026-outlook/

• The focus of tech investors shifts to Las Vegas this week as it hosts the CES consumer electronics show.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and AMD CEO Lisa Su are scheduled to speak on Monday.

Investors will be focused on Las Vegas this week, where executives from AI chip giant Nvidia and other major companies are due to speak at the CES consumer electronics trade show.

Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) CEO Lisa Su are the star attractions on Monday. Huang is scheduled to appear at a press conference at 4 p.m. EST, while Su is slated to give a keynote address at 9:30 p.m. EST.

Su will "share her vision for delivering future AI solutions - from cloud to enterprise, edge and devices," while Huang will "showcase the latest NVIDIA solutions driving innovation and productivity across industries," according to the conference agenda.

CES is an annual conference where tech companies lay out their visions for future products. Investors will be watching for any new products and features that could boost major tech stocks, which have come under pressure in recent months amid concerns about the possibility of an AI bubble.

AI companies faced a range of questions in the closing weeks of 2025, including how and when they could see a return on their hundreds of billions invested in data centers and the training and operating of AI models. Those questions pressured stocks, as investors pondered whether the AI boom that has powered the broader market is sustainable.

Executives from International Business Machines (IBM), Chinese tech giant Alibaba (BABA), General Motors (GM), Caterpillar (CAT), Target (TGT) and Best Buy (BBY) also are scheduled to speak in the coming days at CES.

Shares of Nvidia and AMD were both down about 1% in early-afternoon trading Monday, giving up early-sessions gains .

• Oil stocks rose sharply in early trading Monday, two days after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
• President Donald Trump said U.S. oil firms would rebuild Venezuela's rundown energy infrastructure.
• Venezuela has the world's largest known oil reserves—an estimated 300 billion barrels, or nearly 20% of global supply—but currently accounts for just 1% of global production.

Investors are digesting the news from over the weekend that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro no longer is in charge of the South American nation. Early returns are promising for energy firms.

Shares of oil producers, refiners, and oilfield-services firms rose sharply in early trading Monday, two days after the U.S. military launched a strike on Venezuela and captured Maduro to face drug-trafficking charges here. Maduro, who had been indicted during the first Trump administration, was set to appear in Manhattan federal court this morning.

After Maduro's capture, President Donald Trump said the U.S. would "run" Venezuela until an orderly transition is possible, and that U.S. oil companies would rebuild the oil infrastructure of the South American country.

Venezuela has the world's largest known oil reserves, estimated at about 300 billion barrels, or nearly 20% of global supply. But after years of U.S. sanctions and economic turmoil, the country currently accounts for about 1% of global production.

Energy stocks rose in response after the bell Monday, with those of Chevron (CVX)—the only U.S.-based oil company currently active in Venezuela—rose 5%. Shares of rival oil producers ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were up 5% and 2%, respectively.

Shares of oilfield-services firms Halliburton (HAL), SLB (SLB), and Baker Hughes (BKR) jumped a respective 8%, 8%, and 5%.

Also surging were oil refiners Valero Energy (VLO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX), whose shares were up 10%, 6%, and 6%, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were 1.2% higher at $58 per barrel.

News of the day for Jan. 5, 2026

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open Monday as markets look to start the first full week of trading of the new year on a strong note; Oil stocks are gaining following the Trump administration's move to oust Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro; gold and silver prices are rising amid the uncertainty around what will happen next in Venezuela; tech stocks are in focus ahead of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's appearance Monday at the CES consumer electronics trade show; and Comcast shares are down as its spin-off of TV networks—including CNBC and USA Network—is set to debut on the market Monday. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are higher this morning as the equities market looks to extend its positive start to the new year. The major indexes gained in the first trading session of 2026 on Friday, reversing a streak of declines to end 2025. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were recently up 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near unchanged. Oil sector stocks are leading the gainers this morning amid hopes that U.S. companies will benefit from Trump administration moves in Venezuela. (More below) Bitcoin was trading at $92,800, up from an overnight low of around $91,200 and near its highest level in about a month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects borrowing costs on a wide array of loans, slipped to 4.17% from 4.19% at Friday's close.

A number of the biggest U.S. oil and gas stocks are rising Monday amid investor hopes the companies will benefit from the Trump administration's weekend capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is now in the U.S. facing drug trafficking charges. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he wants American oil companies to invest and help rebuild the oil production capacity of Venezuela. However, some experts have said the companies will likely wait to invest until the picture of who will lead the country in the long term is clearer, per The Associated Press. Shares of Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP) and ExxonMobil (XOM), along with oilfield drillers and equipment makers such as Haliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BKR) and SLB (SLB) are gaining anywhere from 3% to 9% premarket.

Gold and silver prices are rising as some investors look to put their money into safe-haven assets amid the uncertainty of what could come next in the Trump administration's interactions with Venezuela. Gold futures were up more than 2% at $4,420 an ounce in recent trading, while silver futures jumped 4.5% to $74.20 per ounce. Gold and silver are approaching the record highs set late last year, when the precious metals rallied amid growing hopes that the Federal Reserve would continue to cut interest rates in 2026. Gold futures most recently set a new record high just above 4,580 on Dec. 26, while silver futures reached $82.67 on Dec. 29.

Chip giants including Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU), Broadcom (AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are among the tech stocks climbing in premarket trading after posting gains Friday. The hardware and software companies tied the AI boom faced questions to end 2025 around when and how they plan to see a return on the hundreds of billions that are being invested into data centers. Investors will be focused on presentations at the CES consumer electronics trade show in Las Vegas, where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to hold a press conference at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Investors will be able to evaluate a new media and entertainment stock on Monday, as Comcast (CMCSA) spin-off Versant (VSNT) is set to debut on the market today. Comcast announced plans in late 2024 to spin off its cable channels including CNBC, MSNBC (since renamed MS NOW), the USA Network, Golf Channel and more. The collection of TV channels was later named Versant, and the company is now set to start trading Monday, with executives ringing the Nasdaq's opening bell this morning. Comcast shares were down 6% in recent premarket trading.

• Mortgage rates are expected to dip slightly in 2026, which may improve affordability, but borrowing costs will remain relatively high.
• Housing costs will vary widely by location, with better deals more likely in parts of the Midwest and South than in high-cost coastal and Northeast markets.
• Buyers may find value by considering adjustable-rate mortgages or new construction, since ARMs offer lower initial rates and homebuilders are offering buyers incentives.

Home sales remained near historic lows in 2025, as high housing costs and elevated mortgage rates continued to keep buyers on the sidelines. But housing affordability is expected to improve in 2026—if only slightly.

That could create an opportunity for house hunters who have been looking for the right moment to enter the market. Here are some housing trends to watch if you’re in the market to buy a home in 2026.

Mortgage rates peaked at more than 7% in early 2025 and then eased in the second half of the year to around 6.2%. That offered some relief from the high borrowing costs that have helped freeze the housing market.

Buying a home is often the biggest financial decision people make, and conditions like mortgage rates, prices, and local affordability can shape monthly budgets and household wealth. Understanding how the market may evolve in 2026 helps prospective buyers decide whether waiting, relocating, or choosing different financing could meaningfully improve affordability.

But most experts don’t expect mortgage rates to fall much further. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates will remain between 6% and 6.5% in the coming year. Real estate firm Redfin projects an average mortgage rate of 6.3% in 2026, while the National Association of Realtors also saw mortgage rates hanging at “around 6%.”

“As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better," said National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "It will be a modest decline that will improve affordability."

Mortgage rates aren't expected to move significantly, even though the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering short-term interest rates in the coming year. 

The Fed has reduced interest rates by a total of 1.75 percentage points since it first started cutting in September 2024. But mortgage rates haven’t come down in kind. In fact, rates went up after the Fed first began cutting, and are only now just starting to return to September 2024 levels. Economists believe that additional Fed rate cuts are unlikely to loosen mortgage rates further, which closely track the long-term borrowing costs reflected in the 10-year Treasury yield.

“The risk of growing budget deficits and elevated inflation expectations will keep longer-term rates from falling further, even as the Fed cuts short-term rates,” the MBA wrote in its 2026 outlook. “MBA expects there will be periods where rates drop, which will provide moments of refinance activity, similar to what has occurred several times in 2025.”

Housing prices are high, but the high-cost housing trends aren’t spread evenly across the U.S. Some areas are experiencing intense strains on affordability, while prices in other areas haven’t risen as fast.

Cities on the California coast and in the heavily populated Northeast remain among the highest-cost areas of the country to live, according to Oxford Economics. But in some areas in the South and Midwest, housing prices are more reasonable, even if they are growing at a faster rate. 

Oxford Economics pointed to cities like Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, St. Louis, New Orleans, Louisville, Ky., Memphis, Tenn, Tucson, Ariz. and Oklahoma City, Okla. as cities that still offer more-affordable housing options. 

“Although most of these metros have lower house prices than the U.S. average, more than half have seen stronger house price appreciation than the [rest of the] US over the last five years. Still, what differentiates these more affordable metros is the differences in property taxes and insurance,” wrote Oxford Economics.

With mortgage rates hovering around 6%, an increasing number of borrowers have turned to adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly known as ARM loans. These loans can offer a lower interest rate for a set period, often five years, before periodically resetting based on a benchmark. In September, approximately 10% of home borrowers opted for an ARM loan, compared to the historical average of around 6% of mortgage loans. 

ARMs can provide a path to a more affordable mortgage, but they carry some risk if the borrower can’t make the payments when the rate increases. However, borrowers who choose ARMs generally have better credit scores, as these loans are evaluated against the current mortgage rate, not the introductory rate period.

“In this environment where borrowers are struggling with lack of affordability, moving to an ARM can result in real savings,” wrote MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan.

While high prices have depressed home sales across the board, sales of newly constructed homes are outpacing those of existing homes, which remain at historically low levels.

Generally, new homes have been more expensive than existing homes. However, more homebuilders are offering incentives, making new home prices more competitive with those of existing homes. In August, the most recent month for which data is available, new homes sold for an average of $413,500, lower than the average price of $422,600 for existing homes. 

Builder incentives, which can include mortgage rate buy-downs, reduced closing costs, and credits for housing design changes, have helped push new home sales higher. The limited inventory of existing homes is also making new home prices competitive. 

“Buyers are seeing a lot of value in new homes and taking advantage of the unusually high glut of new homes for sale on the market,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

News over the weekend added a fresh dose of geopolitical uncertainty for investors to digest as the first full week of trading in 2026 gets underway.

In the early-morning hours Saturday, the U.S. launched a military strike on Venezuela and extracted President Nicolás Maduro in order for him to face criminal charges in the U.S. President Donald Trump later said that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela until an orderly transition is possible, and that U.S. oil companies would rebuild the oil infrastructure of the South American country.

It's unclear what shape U.S involvement in the oil-rich nation will take. Investors will be looking for more details from the Trump administration and closely watching developments on the ground in the coming days. The oil market, in particular, could be subject to volatility.

Investors this week will also be watching for employment data that could have an impact on interest rates. Market watchers will also get a look at data that was delayed by the government shutdown, including reports on housing starts, factory orders and the U.S. trade deficit.

On the corporate calendar, data center operator Applied Digital will give investors a look at the AI industry, while a handful of grocery and food company earnings will provide insight into consumer spending levels.

Read to the bottom for our calendar of key events—and one more thing.

Though some government agencies are still processing reports that were delayed by last year’s government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December jobs report on Friday as originally scheduled.

Federal Reserve officials have indicated that a weakening labor market could lead the central bank to enact more interest rate cuts this year. Last week’s release of December meeting minutes showed that Fed officials are divided on the path of interest rates and would be closely monitoring upcoming data on the labor market. Reports this week on job openings, private sector hiring and weekly jobless claims will help paint a picture of the current labor market landscape. 

Several reports that were delayed by the shutdown will be released this week, including October data on manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders. There's also data about housing starts in September and October, as well as the third-quarter report on U.S. productivity and costs. 

Other releases include a preliminary January report on consumer sentiment and purchasing manager index (PMI) reports on the manufacturing and services sectors. 

While there’s a limited schedule for earnings reports this week, there will still be an opportunity for investors to monitor the AI trade with Applied Digital's (APLD) Wednesday report. Shares of the data center service provider have surged as spending on AI infrastructure remains robust. Investors will be watching Applied Digital’s quarterly earnings for signals that AI spending remains strong. IT-services provider TD Synnex's (SNX) earnings will also provide a look at tech spending.

Constellation Brands reports earnings on Wednesday. The Corona beer maker has warned that slowing beer sales and tariff pressures are creating headwinds. Cannabis distributor and beer maker Tilray Brands (TLRY), which recently announced a reverse stock split, is due to release its results on Thursday. Company officials could also discuss the impact of President Donald Trump’s move to reclassify cannabis as a less dangerous substance.

Reports from grocer Albertsons Companies (ACI), chicken egg producer Cal‑Maine Foods (CALM) and Atkins brand owner Simply Good Foods (SMPL) will give investors insight into consumer spending on food products.

Quick Links: Recap Last Week’s Trading | Latest Markets News

Monday, Jan. 5

• ISM manufacturing (December)

Tuesday, Jan. 6

• S&P services PMI (December)
• Federal Reserve Official Speaking: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

Wednesday, Jan. 7

• Federal Reserve Official Speaking: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
• ADP employment (December)
• More Data to Watch: Job openings and labor turnover (November), manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders (October), ISM services PMI (December)
• Key Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ), Jefferies Financial (JEF), Albertson Companies (ACI), Applied Digital (APLD), MSC Industrial (MSM), Cal‑Maine Foods (CALM)

Thursday, Jan. 8

• Weekly unemployment insurance claims (Week ending Jan. 3)
• More Data to Watch: Consumer credit (November), Productivity and costs (Q3), U.S. trade deficit (October)
• Key Earnings: RPM International (RPM), TD Synnex (SNX), Acuity (AYI), Commercial Metals Company (CMC), WD‑40 (WDFC), Simply Good Foods (SMPL), Tilray Brands (TLRY)

Friday, Jan. 9

• U.S. employment report (December)
• More Data to Watch: Housing starts (September, October), Consumer sentiment - preliminary (January)

Will 2026 offer some mortgage rate relief for homebuyers? Investopedia’s Sabrina Karl has more on what to expect with mortgage rates this year. 

• The rate of price increases for daycare in September 2025 was 1.5 times higher than the overall inflation rate.
• Rather than paying for pricy childcare, more parents, specifically women, are dropping out of the labor force to save money and care for their children.

With the price of childcare escalating even faster than rent and college tuition for some families, more mothers are opting to leave their jobs and becoming full-time caregivers for their children.

The cost of daycare increased by 5.2% in September 2025 compared to a year before, according to a report from Bank of America. That's almost twice as fast as overall inflation, which rose 3% annually in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In 2025, for the first time since 2021, there was an increase in the number of women who said their family is the reason they are not in the labor force, according to the report.

Childcare costs are rising so fast that the price for one child is more than a month's rent for some families, according to a 2024 report from the Department of Labor. Average costs also surpassed the average annual tuition and fees at a four-year public college by nearly $1,800, according to a report from The Conference Board.

With childcare costs rising, many parents are leaving the labor market to care for their children, creating gaps that are not being filled by older generations. As fewer young Americans plan to have children due to high costs, the future labor force could also be at risk, potentially slowing economic growth and business competition.

As women are more likely to bear the brunt of caregiving responsibilities, the majority of parents dropping out of the labor market to care for their children are mothers.

There are now fewer families with two or more incomes who are paying for childcare, which means more parents are likely leaving their jobs to save money and care for their kids, according to Bank of America researchers.

Women's participation in the labor market has declined recently. This is in contrast to men's participation, which has generally increased.

Additionally, from 2022 to 2024, approximately seven in 10 mothers with a child aged six and under who were not seeking employment reported being unable to work because they couldn't arrange childcare or had other family responsibilities, according to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

• Berkshire shares have significantly lagged the S&P 500 since Buffett's retirement announcement—what analysts call a "succession discount."
• With one of Berkshire's two stock-pickers departing for JPMorgan, investors worry about who's looking after the company's $300 billion equity portfolio.

Warren Buffett wants investors to relax.

In an interview out Friday, the 95-year-old assured shareholders that his departure from the role of CEO at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) changes nothing. "Everything will be the same," he told CNBC.

The market doesn't seem to agree. From the time Buffett announced his retirement in early May, Berkshire Hathaway shares fell about 7% through the end of the year, while the S&P 500 gained 20% over the period. Some analysts called it a "succession discount."

Berkshire shares dropped more than 1% on Friday, the first day of trading in the era of new CEO Greg Abel, while the S&P 500 ticked higher.

If you own Berkshire Hathaway or an index fund that holds its shares, you're wagering on a company with a new CEO for the first time in decades. The stock's retreat since the news of Buffett's departure suggests the market has concerns. The transition highlights the risks of holding shares in companies headed by such singular leaders.

Buffett spent six decades turning a failing textile mill into a trillion-dollar empire. During that time, Berkshire's stock delivered a compounded annual gain of 19.9%, almost double the S&P 500's 10.4%.

That legacy is a nearly impossible act to follow, but Buffett suggested Abel was ready. "I'd rather have Greg handling my money than any of the top investment advisors or any of the top CEOs in the United States," Buffett said.

Abel has also sought to reassure investors. "We will remain Berkshire," he said at the May 2025 annual meeting. "How Warren and the team have allocated capital for the past 60 years, it will not change."

Abel, 63, is a Canadian-born accountant who joined Berkshire in 1999 when the company acquired MidAmerican Energy. He transformed that utility into Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Now a $90 billion-plus operation, the subsidiary spans renewables, pipelines and utilities across North America and the U.K. In 2018, Buffett promoted him to vice chair of non-insurance operations, putting him in charge of businesses ranging from BNSF Railway to Dairy Queen.

Berkshire doesn't just manage its own businesses—it holds a $311 billion stock portfolio, one of the largest in the world. That portfolio, built on Buffett's famed bets on Apple Inc. (AAPL), Coca-Cola Co. (KO), and American Express (AXP), is why investors have long paid a premium for Berkshire shares.

Investor concerns go beyond Buffett's exit as CEO. Last month, Todd Combs, one of Berkshire's two investment managers, left for JPMorgan Chase. That leaves Ted Weschler as the primary steward of Berkshire's equity portfolio.

Weschler grew a $70,000 IRA in the late 1980s into $221 million by 2018. But Buffett acknowledged in 2019 that both Weschler and Combs had "slightly" lagged the S&P 500 since joining Berkshire.

Stock picks linked to Weschler haven't inspired confidence: Berkshire's $4 billion investment in DaVita (DVA), a kidney dialysis provider, is roughly flat over five years. Sirius XM (SIRI), in which Berkshire invested $3 billion, has dropped by two-thirds.

Buffett isn't entirely out the door. He remains Berkshire's board chair and holds about 30% of the company's voting shares. He'll still attend the annual shareholder meeting, though he won't be addressing the Berkshire faithful.

The Oracle of Omaha has said his successor's operational background should be enough for Berkshire's investors, despite Abel's lack of renown for stock-picking acumen. "He understands businesses extremely well," Buffett said at the 2024 shareholder meeting. "If you understand businesses, you understand common stocks."

And, during the CNBC interview Friday, he made a bold claim for Berkshire's durability: "It has a better chance I think of being here 100 years from now than any company I can think of."

News of the day for Jan. 2, 2026

Stock futures are rising this morning as the market looks to start the year on a high note after posting big gains in 2025; Tesla shares are higher in premarket trading ahead of the expected release of delivery numbers from the EV maker; furniture seller stocks are gaining ground after the White House announced a year-long delay on increases in furniture tariffs; Baidu shares are surging after the Chinese tech giant announced it would spin off its AI chip unit; and prices of gold and silver are rising as the precious metals resume their rally after a recent stumble. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open as the market looks to rebound from four straight days of losses at the end of 2025. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.4% recently, while those linked to the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.6% and 1%, respectively. Analysts expect another solid year for stocks in 2026, after the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow respectively gained roughly 20%, 16%, and 13% last year. Bitcoin was at $89,500 this morning, after hitting a low of around $87,500 yesterday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects borrowing costs on all sorts of loans, was holding steady at 4.15%.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) are rising ahead of today’s expected release of fourth-quarter delivery numbers. The electric vehicle maker is expected to report 422,850 deliveries, which would represent a decline from the third quarter, when buyers rushed to purchase the company’s vehicles ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit for EVs. Tesla is forecast to report 1.64 million deliveries for 2025, according to analyst estimates released by the company. Tesla delivered roughly 1.8 million vehicles in both 2023 and 2024. Tesla shares, which rose more than 11% in 2025 as investors increasingly focus on the company's non-EV businesses, were up 1.5% in recent premarket trading.

Shares of furniture sellers are rising ahead of the opening bell after the White House said it would delay a scheduled increase in tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities until 2027. The move comes after President Donald Trump set a 25% tariff on these products in September. Those tariffs were scheduled to increase on Jan. 1, but the White House said the increases would be delayed amid productive negotiations with trading partners. Furniture stocks responded to the news, with RH (RH), Wayfair (W) and MillerKnoll (MLKN) each rising about 2%, and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) adding 1%.

Baidu (BIDU) shares are surging after the Chinese tech giant announced it would spin off its artificial intelligence (AI) chip unit. Baidu said that it has applied for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for its  Kunlunxin AI chip unit. The announcement didn’t provide details about the size of the proposed offering. Baidu is China’s leading search engine and the company is sometimes compared to Google. Baidu's U.S.-listed shares were up 10% in recent premarket trading, after rising more than 50% in 2025.

Gold and silver futures are rising as precious metals look to resume their climb after setting several new record highs in recent weeks. Silver futures were up 4% at $73.45 an ounce, while gold rose 1.4% to $4,400 per ounce. Gold and silver prices slid last week after the CME Group twice raised the margin requirements for the precious metals, requiring traders to put up more cash upfront. Precious metals serve as a safe haven investment amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Investopedia asked economists at Vanguard to share their predictions for 2026, as their 2025 forecasts are on track to be among the most accurate on Wall Street.
• The U.S. economy will have solid economic growth, lower unemployment, and slightly lower inflation than in 2026, according to their forecast.
  
• Tariffs will continue to push up inflation in 2026, but the economy will likely get a boost from tax cuts, economists said.
  

The year ahead will feature stubborn inflation, an improving job market, and solid economic growth, according to a group of forecasters who nailed their outlook for 2025.

With all the different 2026 forecasts out there, it's hard to know whom to trust. So Investopedia reviewed the 2025 outlooks in the Wall Street Journal's annual survey of economists and found one team that was pretty spot on with their predictions for this year: the group led by Joseph Davis at Vanguard.

The U.S. economy could experience a solid rebound next year if Vanguard's 2026 forecast is as on target as it was for 2025.

In December 2024, Davis predicted the unemployment rate would be 4.4%, the economy would add an average of 97,500 jobs per month, and the Consumer Price Index would have increased 3% over the year. The year isn't over yet, but these figures all are on track to be close to those levels, and among the most accurate of the 73 economists surveyed by the Journal.

"We always have humility with the forecasts, no question about that," said Josh Hirt, a Vanguard economist who helped prepare the forecast. "But I think we're in a very good range."

Forecasting was particularly challenging at the start of 2025 due to considerable uncertainty about Donald Trump’s second term. It was unclear, for example, whether his threats to impose tariffs were just negotiating positions or if he was serious. (They were serious.)

Hirt said his team assumed Trump would impose tariffs and that the new import taxes would both push up inflation and cause the unemployment rate to rise. And that's exactly what happened. They also figured his promised immigration crackdown, combined with the aging of the population, would slow down hiring. That too is exactly what happened.

As Hirt mentioned, forecasting is more of an art than a science. So, just because Vanguard's team got 2025 right doesn't necessarily mean they'll be on the money for 2026. However, here's what they think will happen.

Employment: Vanguard expects the job market to bounce back next year after dragging in 2025, as businesses ramp up their investments in AI and other projects, and economic growth renews demand for workers. Hirt said they expect the unemployment rate to drop to 4.2% from its November 2025 level of 4.6%.

Growth: The team expects the economy to accelerate in 2026, putting the GDP's rate of growth at 2.25%, thanks to two key themes.

First, Hirt expects investment numbers to boost growth—and he attributes that to more than just AI. "If you look broadly, the investment numbers that we're seeing this year are quite strong," he said.

He expects fiscal policy to be the other driver, specifically the tax cuts in the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" that will primarily take effect in 2026. "We do think that that's going to provide a meaningful boost to growth," he said.

Inflation: All that economic growth, along with the continued impact of tariffs, could have a downside: Inflation may not fall to the Federal Reserve's goal of a 2% annual rate.

Hirt expects that consumer prices as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, excluding food and energy, will rise 2.6% in 2026, down just slightly from the 2.8% annual increase in September 2025.