Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• The proposed Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF aims to bottle the overnight performance of the cryptocurrency in an investment vehicle.
• Some research supports the premise of the strategy, but it may not consistently deliver excess returns.

The early bird may get the worm. But does the night owl eat its lunch?

That question is at the core of a proposed exchange-traded fund from Nicholas Wealth called Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark. (Approval and launch under the ticker "NGHT" are expected next year.) The strategy aims to capture the performance of the world's largest cryptocurrency while U.S. stock markets are closed, on the belief that bitcoin's (BTCUSD) performance is better in the evenings.

"In a market like we're in now, a lot of the losses have [been] overnight," David Nicholas, president and founder of Nicholas Wealth, told Investopedia. "But in a bull market for bitcoin—that's actually when we see the biggest outperformance."

For investors who have been unhappy with the coin's not-so-hot returns lately, an actively managed strategy could be appealing, and there is some research that suggests bitcoin's overnight performance can exceed the day's. But other numbers suggest that the strategy isn't a slam dunk.

There's a joke in the ETF world that the arrival of a new strategy is a lagging indicator—meaning that by the time a particular investment approach is identified, and packaged for mass-market consumption, it's over or in the final stages of delivering any alpha.

One study that analyzed five-minute bitcoin price data from January 2018 to December 2023 found that average overnight returns were 0.093%, better than U.S. trading hour returns of -0.029%. (Crypto markets trade 24/7, with investors across geographies mostly trading during their waking hours.)

If bitcoin gains are bigger in the U.S.'s off hours, that would indicate meaningfully higher buying activity overseas. That hasn't been the case for most of the past year—suggesting that such a strategy may be unable to deliver excess returns consistently over long periods of time. Other ETFs in the same vein—those that aimed to deliver nighttime performance of stocks—closed roughly a year after launching, in large part because the strategy underperformed.

"If I just want to have Asia-hour exposure, that's cool," Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, said about the strategy. "But there shouldn't be any reason for it to outperform or underperform consistently. It's kind of just noise."

Paris-based blockchain analytics company Kaiko's data show that U.S. bitcoin trading session returns exceeded both APAC's and London's from January 2023 to December 2025. Trading volumes over the same time period, meanwhile, don't indicate that one region is steering the direction of bitcoin, though the U.S.'s share has touched historical highs in the past year, Kaiko research analyst Laurens Fraussen told Investopedia.

Still, Fraussen said, "there is no structural regime shift in which one region suddenly dominates global [bitcoin] trading volume."

• The U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 in November.
  
• The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the 4.5% expected.
  
• The report, which was delayed by the government shutdown, showed that the job market's recent slump was deepening.
  

Job creation slowed and the unemployment rate rose this autumn, according to data that had been delayed by the government shutdown.

The U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September, reaching a fresh high since 2021.

November's job creation and the unemployment rate were both higher than forecasters expected, according to a survey of U.S. economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

"The final jobs report released in 2025 showed the labor market still struggling to maintain its footing," wrote Wells Fargo economists.

The report showed a continuation of the trends that began this summer: a sharp slowdown in hiring due to uncertainty among business leaders about tariff policy, as well as from President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration.

October was the third month this year in which the economy lost jobs. Before June, U.S. employers had added jobs every month since the pandemic.

With job creation flatlining and the unemployment rate steadily rising, the labor market is becoming a weak point in the U.S. economy.

The report also highlighted the impact of deferred government layoffs made earlier in the year when President Donald Trump took office and began slashing federal programs and jobs, offering many of them deferred buyouts that took effect in October.

The bureau released only some of its usual monthly data for October. The survey of households used to calculate the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and other statistics was not conducted because of the government shutdown.

The disruptions caused some economists to take the report with a grain of salt, and officials at the Federal Reserve likely will too. The Fed has cut its key interest rate at its last three meetings to support the faltering job market. It could again at its next meeting in January if the hiring slump continues, although Tuesday's report may not be too influential in that decision.

"The Fed is unlikely to put much weight on today’s report given data disruptions," Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, wrote in a commentary.

The bulk of the job creation in November came from health and education services, which added 65,000 jobs, and construction, which added 28,000. Health care and education have been the only real source of job growth in recent months, with employment declining in most other sectors.

That includes manufacturing, which lost 5,000 jobs in November and has lost jobs every month since May. The manufacturing decline is especially noteworthy because Trump's tariffs were intended to protect U.S. factories and boost manufacturing employment.

"Businesses are not hiring as they adjust to tariffs, [uncertain] conditions and AI," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary. "The result is about 700,000 more unemployed Americans than there were a year ago. This is painful for many middle-class families who are losing income."

News of the day for Dec. 16, 2025

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning ahead of the release of highly anticipated labor market data; the government is scheduled to release two months of employment figures that were delayed owing to the government shutdown; Ford is roverhauling its electric vehicle business amid stagnant demand in the U.S.; Oracle and Broadcom are among the tech stocks looking to reverse their recent slides; and Tesla shares enter today's session at their highest level of the year. Here's what you need to know.

Stock futures are ticking lower as investors await the release of two months of employment data that will provide a clearer picture about the health of the U.S. economy. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq were off 0.3% recently, while those linked to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%. On Monday, the major indexes lost ground as concerns around an AI bubble continue to pressure the tech sector. Gold futures were down 0.4% at $4,320 an ounce this morning, after approaching a fresh record high yesterday, while crude oil futures fell 1.6% to $55.90 per barrel. Bitcoin was trading at $87,100, up from an overnight low of $85,200. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects the costs of all sorts of consumer loans, ticked lower to 4.17%.

Investors will get a double dose of jobs data on, with the government shutdown-delayed figures from October slated for released alongside November numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists estimate that the October numbers will show a decline in employment owing to mass layoffs of government workers. November employment growth is expected to come in at about 50,000 jobs, a relatively modest increase that would confirm the slowdown in the labor market. The Federal Reserve last week cut its key interest rate for the third time this year, citing concerns about the labor market, and the data released today will factor into the Fed's thinking about future rate adjustments. As of Tuesday morning, the CME Group's FedWatch tracker assigns just a 24% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's Jan. 28 meeting.

Ford (F) has announced a major shift in its electric vehicle strategy, with the Michigan automaker expecting to take on about $19.5 billion in one-time charges to account for the costs of its restructuring plans. Ford and other automakers are scaling back electric vehicle plans as demand in the U.S. has fallen after the Trump administration ended the $7,500 EV tax credit earlier this year. In its late-Monday announcement, Ford said its electric vehicle unit should be profitable by 2029 after making these changes, and said some of its battery-producing plants will shift to making stationary batteries for homes, businesses and data centers. The next generation of the brand's F-150 Lightning will also now be an extended range EV rather than a fully electric vehicle, and Ford said its plans to start introducing smaller, more efficient and affordable EVs continues on track for 2027. Ford shares were up 1.5% in recent premarket trading.

Shares of several tech stocks are looking to recover this week after recent slides, especially Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO), which have each tumbled since reporting earnings last week. Analysts are largely staying bullish on the stocks, but investors worry about an AI bubble inflating valuations in the market. In the three trading sessions since last Wednesday, when Oracle reported results after the bell, shares of Oracle and Broadcom have each lost more than 15% of their value. Investors are concerned about a range of issues facing the AI trade, from questions over how companies such as Oracle and OpenAI will finance their massive expansion plans while remaining financially stable, to the sustainability of AI demand outside of the few biggest tech companies. Shares of Broadcom and Oracle were little changed ahead of the opening bell.

Telsa shares come into today's session at their high point of the year and not far from an all-time high. The company is facing the same lackluster EV demand in the U.S. as other automakers, along with international sales that are being hampered by increasing competition from Chinese automakers. However, investors are increasingly focused on other aspects of Tesla's business, such as its self-driving software, robotaxis, and humanoid robots called Optimus. After piloting its robotaxi program in Austin, Texas in recent months with a Tesla employee in the passenger seat, the company has recently started testing the vehicles' ability to drive autonomously with no one in the car. Tesla shares—which closed yesterday at $475.31, just off the record closing high of $479.86 set last December—were down 0.5% in recent premarket trading.

• Micron Technology's fiscal first-quarter results are due for release after the market closes Wednesday, with analysts expecting growing sales and profits.
• Options pricing suggests traders expect Micron's stock could move up to 9% in either direction by the end of the week.
  

Micron Technology is set to report earnings after the market closes Wednesday, with traders expecting a big move in the memory chip maker's stock.

Options pricing suggests traders expect Micron (MU) shares could swing up to 9% in either direction by the end of the week. At the high end, a move of that size from Monday's close at $237.50 would push the stock above $258, near its all-time high reached last week. At the low end, however, the stock could slip to roughly $217, where it was late last month.

Micron, which makes memory components for leading AI chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), has seen its sales surge to new highs this year on strong demand for its memory chips. Its stock has nearly tripled in value in 2025, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 for the year so far.

Micron, as a memory supplier for some of the biggest AI chipmakers, is seen as a leading "pick-and-shovel" play for the AI trade. A strong earnings print this week and market reaction to the results would underscore its status as one of the year's biggest winners of the AI boom.

Wall Street analysts expect Micron to report a 48% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $12.93 billion, while adjusted earnings per share are projected to more than double to $3.96 for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Ahead of the company's report, several analysts offered bullish commentary and lifted their price targets for the stock, expecting growing AI demand, a tightening memory market, and stronger pricing to support higher profits for Micron. Earlier this month, Micron said it plans to exit the consumer memory products market after February 2026 in order to concentrate on more profitable AI-focused products.

Among the 11 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, nine call the stock a "buy," compared to two "hold" ratings. Their mean target near $249 would suggest about 5% upside from Monday's close.

Take A Number: A Striking Figure In Economic News Today

• The U.S. economy likely lost an average of 20,000 jobs per month between April and September, rather than the reported average gain of 43,000 jobs per month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said.
  
• A downward revision of job growth would be yet another red flag about the health of the labor market.
  

The job market, already thought to be slowing down, may be in even worse shape than it seemed at first.

The U.S. economy likely gained an average of around 60,000 fewer jobs each month than previously reported between April and September, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference last week.

Currently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the economy gained 119,000 jobs in September, the most recent data available on the labor market. However, if Powell's estimate is correct, the actual number was about half that. Moreover, the economy may have actually lost an average of 20,000 jobs each month since April instead of gaining about 40,000 as previously reported.

A weaker labor market can pressure wages, consumer spending, and confidence, shaping expectations for future Fed rate cuts.

Powell did not cite a source for his figures, but the Fed has a staff of economists who carry out economic research to inform the central bank's policy decisions.

If Powell's comments are correct, the lower figures could come to light next year when the bureau carries out its annual revision of the previous year's job creation statistics to incorporate data that wasn't available when the monthly reports are published. It would be the latest in a series of red flags about the labor market, which is being slowed by tariff-related uncertainty and President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown, among other factors.

"I think you can say that the labor market has continued to cool gradually, maybe just a touch more gradually than we thought," Powell said.

• Bank of America's lead U.S. equity strategist predicted the S&P 500 would end next year around 7,100, just 4% above its level on Monday.
• Earnings growth is expected to remain strong, but softness in mega-cap tech stocks and less liquidity could be a drag on stocks. BofA's forecast is among the most bearish on Wall Street.

The stock market defied expectations again this year. One Wall Street analyst is telling investors not to expect it to happen in 2026.

“Our year-end target is pretty lackluster,” said Savita Subramanian, Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, on CNBC Monday. Subramanian's team predicts the S&P 500 will finish next year at 7100, just 4% above today's close—a pessimistic forecast by Street standards.

The S&P 500 has gained about 16% so far this year, putting the benchmark index on track to post its third straight year of double-digit gains. Like last year, strength in tech shares, and those of other companies exposed to the AI boom, has been the driving force behind this year's gains.

Analysts are generally optimistic about the stock market heading into 2026, with even the most cautious experts forecasting a slightly positive year. Still, some experts are predicting a bumpy path to gains, and Bank of America is looking for things to finish far cooler than they appear on track to end 2025.

Subramanian expects earnings to grow at a healthy clip next year, a reflection of a surprisingly resilient economy that's weathered soaring inflation, elevated interest rates, and an unpredictable global trade war. But Subramanian predicts multiples will contract next year as investors' growth expectations moderate. 

The run-up in AI stocks may become a headwind next year. The high valuations of mega- and large-cap tech stocks is one of the reasons Vanguard recently forecast the S&P 500 would average mid-single-digit returns over the next decade or so.

Subramanian on Monday said "buy-the-dream" AI stocks are “maybe headed for a little bit of an air pocket.” The AI trade has been pressured recently by concerns that tech companies are spending too much on a technology with uncertain commercial potential. Subramanian acknowledged similarities between today’s market and the Dotcom Bubble of the 1990s, but noted that several factors, including tech's strong earnings, make today's setup less risky. 

Less liquidity could also keep a lid on the stock market next year, said Subramanian. “Everything looks really good right now from a liquidity perspective, from a Fed perspective,” she said. "Economic data is still relatively healthy. But when you think about liquidity over the next 12 months, it’s getting worse rather than better.”

Global central banks are expected to cut interest rates 78 times next year, after cutting 139 times this year, according to Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett. Fewer cuts means less capital flowing into equities and supporting prices. 

Some bulls expect the good times to continue. Oppenheimer analysts earlier this month predicted that the S&P 500 would finish next year at 8100, suggesting about 19% upside from today's finish. "We expect markets to continue the bull market rally that began in Oct. 2022 as economic fundamentals remain supportive of continued revenue and earnings growth,” wrote Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus on Sunday.

Episode 273 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Dec. 15, 2025)

Subscribe Now: Apple Podcasts / Spotify / PlayerFM

As the year winds down, we wrap up our final investor sentiment survey, which shows that we are as optimistic as we’ve been in months, even though we are worried about inflation and a stock market bubble. We take a deep dive into retail investors’ portfolios, and then look ahead into 2026 with Michael Arone of State Street Investment Management. Plus, why Charles Dow would be particularly happy about this current rally, and what one of his 110-year-old theories teaches us about the health of this bull market. 

Links for Show Notes:

• https://www.ssga.com/us/en/bio/6011
• https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/insights
  

• The U.S. economy probably lost jobs in October and then added just 50,000 in November, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.5%, according to forecasts.
  
• Tuesday’s long-delayed report, held up by the government shutdown, will combine data from both October and November.
  
• The data is likely to show a jobs slowdown driven by tariffs, federal worker layoffs, the immigration crackdown, and other economic headwinds.
  

A long-delayed hiring report will probably confirm the job market kept cooling this autumn.

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release data showing that U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in November and that the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, its highest level since 2021, according to a survey of forecasters by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The report will also likely show the economy lost jobs in October due to mass layoffs of federal workers, several economists said.

These findings would underscore the Fed's concerns that the job market has slowed sharply and risks a serious surge in unemployment. The Fed is tasked by Congress with a dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment as high as possible. Fed officials have cut the central bank's key interest rate at its last three meetings in an effort to encourage spending and boost hiring.

"We believe it will be increasingly clear that the 'maximum employment' side of the Fed's mandate is in jeopardy," economists at Wells Fargo Securities led by Sarah House wrote in a commentary.

The job report is likely to show a "frozen" job market that has avoided mass layoffs, but has few opportunities for workers, which risks slowing down the economy as a whole.

Tuesday's report is highly anticipated partly because it was delayed by the government shutdown in October and November. It will combine data that the BLS normally would have released in early November and then early December, had the government not been shut down. It will also omit October’s unemployment rate and other household-survey data, which were never collected because of the shutdown.

The most recent jobs reports showed that growth slowed down significantly this summer, and is now running far below the 147,000 jobs added per month in the 12 months through April.

The new data will provide an updated snapshot of how President Donald Trump's economic policies and other circumstances are affecting the job market. Many businesses have curtailed hiring because of uncertainty surrounding Trump's campaign to impose steep import taxes on nearly every country in the world. His crackdown on immigration has also had a significant effect on the labor market, to the point that it has caused shortages in certain industries. On top of that, some companies say they have laid off workers as they adopt artificial intelligence.

"Given the huge policy shift from lax to strict immigration enforcement, the push by the Trump Administration to thin government payrolls, as well as the ongoing aging of the population and layoffs attributed to AI, payroll growth should be slow," Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, wrote in a commentary.

A report in line with expectations would be a mixed bag for workers, since it won't reflect widespread layoffs, but it will also signal there are few opportunities for hiring or advancement. 

"What data we do currently have is muddy but concerning. We know, for example, that job creation slowed dramatically this past summer," Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a progressive think tank, wrote in a commentary. “Obviously, affordability and prices are top of mind right now for most Americans, but we very much do not want to add 'unemployment' and 'job loss' to that list of concerns.” 

• Worries about an AI bubble have led to a pullback in the tech sector, though Jefferies analysts said they still see gains for some standouts with strong fundamentals.
• Their top internet stock picks heading into 2026 are AppLovin, Reddit, Roku, Spotify, Uber, and Zillow.

Jefferies has some ideas about where tech investors should look after a tough stretch for the sector.

Tech stocks took a hit last week, with cloud computing giant Oracle (ORCL) and chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) at the forefront after quarterly earnings that failed to impress investors amid growing skepticism around the AI trade. But Jefferies analysts told clients amid Thursday's selloff that they still see gains for some standouts in the sector, which they identified for their "peer-leading growth" and strong fundamentals.

All but one of the stocks Jefferies highlighted have already seen big gains 2025, outperforming both the S&P 500 and industry peers. Here are the analysts' ideas.

Worries about an AI bubble have rattled markets in recent months, weighing on the tech sector. Some tech stocks have fared better than others, leaving many investors wondering how to pick winners from a crowded field of stocks, many which have retreated from recent highs.

One of Jefferies' top picks is adtech company AppLovin (APP). Though the stock's torrid rise was wracked by short-seller allegations of sketchy practices earlier this year, it has still more than doubled in value in 2025, reaching a fresh high near $725 last week.

Jefferies said it sees more gains ahead, with AppLovin expected to make a change in the first half of 2026 that would dramatically expand its business by opening up access to its referral-based advertising platform to more customers. Even among Wall Street's biggest AppLovin bulls, few are quite as bullish as Jefferies, however, with a Street-high target of $860 suggesting nearly 30% upside from Friday's close.

Reddit (RDDT), Spotify (SPOT) and Roku (ROKU), which have all added over a third of their value in 2025, were among Jefferies' top picks based on hopes that new features and user experience improvements could drive higher engagement and share prices. Jefferies has a $325 target for Reddit and $135 objective for Roku, suggesting gains of about 45% and 33%, respectively. The firm's $800 target for Spotify would point to a roughly 26% rise. All three levels exceed the consensus projections of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha.

Uber (UBER) and Zillow (Z) rounded out the group. Uber, which is up some 40% year-to-date, could climb another roughly 40%, to $120, said Jefferies, with gains from robotaxi partnerships, new delivery customers, and inroads with previously underrepresented demographic groups seen helping sustain its recent momentum.

Zillow, which as of Friday was down some 17% from its September highs above $90 amid worries about ongoing legal challenges, competition, and a muted housing market, finished last week less than 1% higher from where it was when the year began—then fell further today. Jefferies said it sees a full recovery for the stock and more, with a $100 target as the real estate marketplace rolls out new tools and incentives for agents.

• Google has started testing new home ad features in its search results.
• Shares of Zillow and other home listing sites tumbled Monday amid worries Google's new features could hurt their businesses.
  

Google is getting deeper into the home listings game, in what could mean more competition for Zillow and other real estate sites.

Shares of Zillow Group (Z), which claims to be the most visited real estate website in the U.S., tumbled over 10% Monday after Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google began testing full home ads in its search results, including links to request tours and agent contacts.

Other companies with home listing sites such as CoStar (CSGP) and Rocket Companies (RKT) also saw their stocks lose ground. Alphabet shares were little changed. (Read our daily markets coverage here.) 

Monday's drop in shares of Zillow and other companies with home listing sites underscores worries Google’s new home ad features in search could present a competitive challenge.

Goldman Sachs analysts told clients Monday that while they "don't expect a direct near-term impact on Zillow’s business, given that most of Zillow’s traffic is direct (e.g., Zillow.com, StreetEasy.com, mobile apps) and Google’s new product is currently limited to select markets and mobile browsers, we view this development as a long-term risk for real estate portals like Zillow."

With Monday's losses, shares of Zillow are down about 8% for the year, while CoStar shares have lost about 12%. Rocket Companies shares have lost over 60% of their value in 2025.