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Episode 272 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Dec. 8, 2025)
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2025 has been a tumultuous and volatile year, as a new administration shook up economic policy, AI spending stretched valuations, and consumer confidence plummeted. As we head into the home stretch of the year, Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA, helps us separate the signals from the noise within the markets and what to expect in 2026, especially with a midterm election heading our way. Plus, what to expect from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year on interest rates, and why investors should be careful about what they wish for.
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The detail announced last week between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery has some twists left.Have your movie-night plans ever been blown up by too many choices and competing interests? That could be happening to the Netflix-Warner Bros. deal too.
Shortly after Netflix (NFLX) last week made its plans to acquire Warner Bros. (WBD) public, power players—up to and including President Donald Trump—made it clear that the industry-upending deal wouldn't occur without their involvement. Netflix prevailed in a months-long bidding war for Warner Bros. assets, including its film and TV studios, its gaming business, HBO and HBOMax. But Paramount Skydance (PSKY) on Monday launched a hostile takeover attempt, saying the company's shareholders should prefer its offer.
Meanwhile, Trump on Sunday said he would be "involved in the decision" and pointed to possible antitrust issues implied by the Netflix deal. To sum up the state of this media deal using the words of Warner Bros.' iconic cartoon rabbit: "Of course, you realize this means war."
When deals between public companies are announced, their stocks generally start to move toward levels representing the value of the deal. In the case of Warner Bros. and Netflix, the magic number looks like a moving target.
The stakes are extremely high. When Netflix and Warner Bros. struck their $83 billion cash-and-stock deal, the pact came with sizable breakup fees. If the deal doesn't go through because Warner Bros. walks away to pursue a different suitor, or because it fails to get shareholder approval, the company has to pay Netflix a fee equal to $2.8 billion. If the deal doesn't go through because of antitrust laws or foreign regulatory laws, Netflix has to give Warner Bros. $5.8 billion.
Fees like those are generally larger when deals are big and the likelihood of turbulence is high. Paramount took its offer to Warner Bros. shareholders directly on Monday, saying its all-cash bid was superior to Netflix's. "We're really here to finish what we started," Paramount CEO David Ellison said on CNBC . "We believe when they see what is currently in our offer, that that's what they'll vote for."
At face value, Paramount's $30-per-share offer, which Warner rejected, is higher than Netflix's $27.75, but it also accounts for global television networks including CNN and TNT—pegging their value at mere dollars—whereas the streaming giant's deal is contingent on the entertainment company splitting into two.
Ellison also took issue with the streaming monopoly that would be created with Netflix, the No. 1 streaming company combined with the third-largest Warner Bros., which he said would result in "unprecedented market power" that would exceed Disney (DIS). His deal, the CEO said, would have an "obviously faster path to regulatory certainty."
Trump, who is a close friend of Larry Ellison, father to David, alluded to possible antitrust issues on Sunday, telling reporters that the market share implied by the Netflix-Warner deal "could be a problem." Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos reportedly wooed Trump ahead of the deal's announcement and had the impression that the White House wouldn't block the transaction, according to Bloomberg.
In the meantime, traders are making some hay, a sign that the situation is seen as fluid. Warner Bros. stock was recently some 3%, rising to near $29 on Monday, while Paramount's was up more than 8%. Netflix, meanwhile, was moving in the other direction, down more than 4%.
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Even with CoreWeave's recent losses, the stock has more than doubled from its IPO price in MarchShares of CoreWeave (CRWV) lost ground Monday after the cloud computing company said it would sell $2 billion in convertible senior notes.
The shares were down close to 5% in recent trading. (Read our daily markets coverage here.)
The data center provider backed by AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) said the convertible senior notes coming due in 2031 will be made in a private offering, and initial investors would have the option to purchase an additional $300 million worth within a 13-day period from the issuance date.
Convertible debt offerings can offer a relatively simple and inexpensive way for companies to raise capital. However, existing shareholders may view them negatively, as they can be dilutive and may raise concerns about a company's debt levels.
CoreWeave said that a portion of the proceeds will be used for capped call transactions, with the rest for general corporate purposes.
The move comes after a recent pullback in CoreWeave's shares amid worries about an AI bubble, after a big run-up in its stock following its public debut in March.
Even with CoreWeave's recent losses, the stock has more than doubled from its initial public offering price.
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Fed officials are divided about whether to cut rates to boost the job market, or keep them higher for longer to fight inflation.The Federal Reserve's policy committee meets next on Dec. 9 and 10, and officials are expected to cut the central bank's key interest rate to lower borrowing costs in an effort to stabilize the deteriorating job market.
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet to consider whether to cut the federal funds rate from its current range of 3.75% to 4%. The Fed cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of the previous two meetings in an effort to prevent the recent job market slowdown from turning into a serious increase in unemployment.
As of Monday, financial markets were pricing in an 87% chance of a rate cut according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data. Recent data indicating that the job market is slowing down, as well as surveys showing the public becoming more pessimistic about the job market, have increased the likelihood of a rate cut in recent weeks.
However, a rate cut is not a done deal. Speaking at a press conference following the FOMC's most recent meeting in October, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was not guaranteed to cut rates, and noted the 12-member panel that votes on rate changes is divided about whether to cut rates to preserve the labor market, or keep them higher for longer to combat inflation.
Since then, Fed officials have made clear that there's much disagreement, with one camp favoring steep rate cuts and another advocating for holding the fed funds rate steady.
The Fed aims to stabilize the job market by lowering interest rates, but too many cuts too soon could stoke high inflation. The Fed faces a difficult balancing act in managing the risks of cutting too soon or too late.
The government shutdown ended in November makes the Fed's decision more difficult because it shuttered the government's statistical agencies, delaying key reports on inflation and employment until after the meeting is over. Without critical data, Fed officials have less to go on when deciding whether inflation or the job market is the more pressing problem to solve.
The only up-to-date data Fed officials have is from private sources generally considered by economists less reliable than the "gold standard" reports from the BLS.
The Fed faces challenges on both sides of its dual mandate.
Recent indicators show the job market is slowing down. While the government shutdown has delayed official data, alternative data from private sources is waving red flags.
The 1,170,821 job cuts to date this year are the highest since the pandemic hit in 2020, while the 497,151 hiring announcements are the fewest since the end of the Great Recession in 2010, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a consulting firm. The most recent job market report from the BLS showed the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, a significant slowdown from the post-pandemic average, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August.
Meanwhile, inflation is running hotter than the Fed's goal of a 2% annual rate, and recent official inflation reports suggest it stayed stubborn in September.
Tariffs have pushed up prices and stoked uncertainty among business leaders, which has slowed down hiring. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown has also slowed down job growth, and multiple companies have announced layoffs and hiring freezes attributed to the adoption of artificial intelligence.
Investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference for clues about whether another rate cut is coming anytime soon.
Some forecasters expect the Fed to keep its options open about future rate cuts, given its lack of up-to-date economic data.
"Chair Powell has every incentive to preserve optionality," Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a commentary.
Additionally, Fed officials will present their quarterly economic projections, outlining their expectations for inflation, employment, economic growth, and the Fed funds rate over the coming months and years. Economists at Deutsche Bank expect the median official to expect just one more quarter-point rate cut per year through 2027.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the body that sets the fed funds rate for the Federal Reserve System, the United States' central bank. It holds eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, which are not open to the public. The Fed's use of interest rates to influence the economy is called monetary policy.
The FOMC consists of 12 voting members: the seven board governors, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, and four other regional bank presidents who serve rotating one-year terms.
At each FOMC meeting, the committee members discuss economic and financial conditions and decide whether and how much to change the fed funds rate. The FOMC issues a public statement about its decision at 2 p.m. on Wednesday when the meeting concludes. The Fed chair, currently Jerome Powell, typically hosts a press conference afterwards to explain the decision.
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Tesla shares are down about 10% from the all-time high set last December.The ranks of Tesla (TSLA) bulls have shrunk, as Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on the company. Shares of the electric vehicle maker fell sharply on Monday.
"Tesla is a clear global leader in electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real world AI and thus deserving of a premium valuation," analysts led by Andrew Percoco wrote in a note to clients over the weekend. "However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation."
Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Tesla stock to "equal-weight" from "overweight" previously, while raising their price target to $425 from $410. Telsa shares were down 4% at around $437 in mid-afternoon trading Monday.
Tesla stock faces near-term risks such as potentially falling short of quarterly earnings estimates as its EV business struggles, which could make its next year of trading "choppy," the analysts wrote.
Wall Street remains divided on Tesla stock, with the 13 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha split between six "buy," four "hold," and three "sell" ratings. The stock, which has been on a bumpy ride this year, has gained less than 10% so far in 2025, lagging the performance of major stock indexes.
Here's how the analysts value the different elements of Tesla's business:
The analysts also said they expect Tesla will hit seven of the 12 milestones laid out in CEO Elon Musk's recently approved pay package, including the vehicle, Optimus and robotaxi milestones, but only three of the six profitability marks.
Tesla shares have gained 8% since the start of the year, but are down 10% from their record high set about a year ago.
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Confluent stock has moved into positive territory for the year with its huge gain on Monday.Shares of Confluent (CFLT) surged Monday morning after IBM (IBM) announced a deal to acquire the software maker for $31 per share, valuing Confluent at $11 billion.
Confluent's software helps companies manage and organize large amounts of data, an in-demand service as many companies are looking to manage massive data sets that are used in the training and running of artificial intelligence models.
IBM said that Confluent "excels at preparing data for AI, keeping it clean and connected across systems and applications, eliminating silos inherent in agentic AI." IBM said that the company's total addressable market has doubled in the last four years to $100 billion.
IBM will acquire Confluent with cash on hand, and said it expects the deal to close by the middle of next year as Confluent's largest shareholders, which control about 62% of the stock's voting power, have agreed to vote in favor of the deal.
Confluent shares were up 29% in midday trading Monday. Coming into the week, the stock had lost 17% of its value since the start of the year.
The stock of a company being acquired typically surges as investors look to buy in below the announced deal price, $31 per share in Confluent's case. The news of the IBM deal sent Confluent's share price into positive territory for 2025.
IBM shares were up 1.5%, boosting the stock's year-to-date gain to 42%. IBM is among the top performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2025, trailing only heavy machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT) and investment banking giant Goldman Sachs (GS).
The deal could be a boost for IBM's software business, which it could use as slowing sales growth in its hybrid cloud segment disappointed investors in its latest earnings report in October. Wedbush analysts said following the announcement that they "believe this acquisition represents a strong move by IBM to continue adding more data processing capabilities to its hybrid cloud ecosystem while driving profitable growth over time."
The analysts added that Confluent is "a natural fit for IBM’s long-term growth strategy as the company addresses IBM’s focus on eliminating data silos for powering AI," and said they "loudly applaud" what they expect will be one of more acquisitions to come.
The Wall Street Journal had reported late Sunday that the sides were close to a deal. Reports emerged in October that Confluent was considering a sale and working with a bank to sort through its options, from private equity firms to tech companies.
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Carvana operates a network of used-car vending machines across the country.Carvana may have staged a comeback for the ages.
The digital car seller is joining the benchmark S&P 500 just a few years after Wall Street had written off the company as a zombie. Carvana (CVNA), along with building materials supplier CRH (CRH) and construction services provider Comfort Systems USA (FIX), will begin trading as a component of the S&P 500 on Dece. 22, according to S&P Global.
Carvana’s path to the S&P 500 has been a bumpy one. The company went public in 2017 at a $15 IPO price, but shares finished their first day of trading at about $11. The stock crept higher over the following years as Carvana expanded into new markets and built out its network of coin-operated car vending machines. Sales soared from $859 million in 2017 to nearly $4 billion in 2019. But expenses grew nearly as fast, and Carvana remained unprofitable when the Covid-19 pandemic really kicked the business into overdrive.
Covid-19 disrupted manufacturing around the world, squeezing supply in the new car market and driving up used car prices. At the same time, stay-at-home orders made online shopping the default across the U.S. It was a perfect recipe for Carvana: Sales tripled in the two years after the start of the pandemic. The stock, which fell to about $29 in the Covid sell-off of March 2020, soared 1,160% to a record high of $370 in August 2021.
The story of how digital car seller Carvana found its way into the benchmark U.S. stock index is one of a dramatic turnaround for its business—and for its shares, which in recent years have traded below $4 apiece and are now above $400.
The company’s debt also tripled, which became one of Carvana’s many problems when the Federal Reserve, in March 2022, began raising interest rates to battle soaring prices. Rate hikes made the company’s debt more expensive. They also reduced demand for cars right as pandemic-era bottlenecks were clearing.
Wall Street analysts began writing obituaries for the company, which appeared destined for bankruptcy. The shares lost nearly all of their value, falling to an all-time low of $3.72 in December 2022.
The next year, Carvana launched a cost-cutting effort that included layoffs and restructuring. It also struck a deal with creditors to ease its debt burden. Interest expenses plateaued, operating costs declined—and investors came back around. Shares closed at a record $399.77 on Friday, up more than 10,000% over the past three years.
Not everyone is sold on Carvana. Shortseller Hindenburg Research in January published a report questioning the legitimacy of Carvana's turnaround. Short-seller Jim Chanos has been outspoken skeptic this year. Still, investors continue the stock after its long climb: The shares jumped another 10% on Monday on the index news.
Being added to the S&P 500 is more than a vote of confidence; it brings tangible benefits. An estimated $13 trillion was indexed to the S&P 500 at the end of 2024, according to S&P Global. The investment funds that track the S&P 500 will need to buy Carvana stock in the coming weeks to reflect the changes announced Friday.
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Carvana shares have more than doubled in value in 2025Carvana, CRH, and Comfort Systems USA shares climbed Monday after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stocks are set to join the S&P 500.
Shares of used car retailer Carvana (CVNA) were up over 10% in recent trading, while construction materials provider CRH (CRH) jumped 6%, and mechanical and electrical services company Comfort Systems USA (FIX) added about 2%. (Read our daily markets coverage here.)
The three stocks will join the benchmark index prior to the opening of trading Dec. 22, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday, as part of its quarterly rebalancing. The companies will be replacing auto parts distributor LKQ (LKQ), specialty materials maker Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), and flooring manufacturer Mohawk Industries (MHK), shares of which were little changed Monday morning.
Joining a major index like the S&P 500 is typically seen as advantageous for stocks, as it exposes them to a wider group of investors and pushes funds tracking the index to add the shares.
Stocks that are added to major indexes like the S&P 500 often benefit from the move, as it may be taken as a vote of confidence in their returns and boost awareness among investors. Index funds that track stocks added to the indexes will also be driven to buy the shares.
With Monday's gains, shares of Carvana and Comfort Systems USA have more than doubled in value in 2025. CRH shares have climbed close to 40% this year so far.
News of the day for Dec. 8, 2025
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Major indexes gained ground last week for the second consecutive week.Stock futures are inching higher to start the week as the S&P 500 approaches a new record high; President Trump says he plans to be involved in the regulatory decisions around Netflix's planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery; shares of Confluent are skyrocketing on news IBM has agreed to acquire the software maker; Carvana, CRH and Comfort Systems USA will each join the S&P 500 later this month; and China's trade surplus surpassed a record $1 trillion for the year through November. Here's what you need to know today.
Stock Futures Rise as Investors Await This Week's Fed DecisionStock futures are pointing to a slightly higher open this morning as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, due on Wednesday afternoon. Market participants are pricing in about a 90% chance that the central bank will cut its benchmark rate for the third consecutive meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-focused Nasdaq were recently up 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose fractionally. The major indexes ended Friday's session higher after closely watched inflation data came in largely as expected. The S&P 500 enters this week just 0.3% away from a fresh record closing high. Bitcoin was trading at $91,900 recently, up from a weekend low below $88,000. Gold futures were little changed at around $4,240 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 4.16%, up from 4.14% on Friday and trading at its highest level in more than a month.
Trump Says Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery Market Share 'Could Be a Problem'President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he expects to be involved in the decision over whether Netflix's (NFLX) acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is approved by regulators. Speaking to reporters as he arrived at a Kennedy Center event, Trump said that, with Warner Bros. Discovery, Netflix would have "a big market share, there’s no question about it. It could be a problem." The comments are the latest evidence that the bidding war for Warner Bros. might not be completely finished, as some other administration officials and members of Congress have come out against the deal, such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who said the deal looks like "an anti-monopoly nightmare." Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos reportedly met with Trump at the White House last month to talk up Netflix's bid, and unnamed sources told Bloomberg that Trump agreed the highest bidder should win.
Confluent Shares Soar on News of IBM AcquisitionShares of Confluent (CFLT) are soaring after IBM (IBM) announced a deal to acquire the software maker for $31 per share, valuing Confluent at $11 billion. Confluent's software helps companies manage and organize large amounts of data, an in-demand service as many companies are looking to manage massive data sets that are used in the training and running of artificial intelligence models. IBM will acquire Confluent with cash on hand, and said it expects the deal to close by the middle of next year. The Wall Street Journal had reported late Sunday that the sides were close to a deal. Confluent shares, which through Friday's close had lost 17% of their value since the start of 2025, were up 27% in premarket trading Monday.
Carvana Among Stocks Set to Join S&P 500 Later This MonthThree companies got an early Christmas present late Friday, as S&P Global announced the latest changes to its major indexes that will go into effect later this month. CRH (CRH), Carvana (CVNA), and Comfort Systems USA (FIX) will be added to the S&P 500 as of Dec. 22 as part of the index's quarterly rebalancing to adjust for shifting market capitalizations. Inclusion in a major index such as the S&P 500 can be seen as a boon for a company's shares. The companies will replace LKQ (LKQ), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) and Mohawk Industries (MHK), which will all move to the S&P SmallCap 600. There will also be corresponding moves to replace those companies and many others in the smaller indexes. Carvana shares were up 9% in recent premarket trading, while CRH added 7% and Comfort Systems tacked on 2%.
China's Trade Surplus Surpasses $1 Trillion Despite U.S. TariffsChina announced Monday that the country's trade surplus has surpassed a record $1 trillion for this year in just 11 months, up from $998 billion last year, according to The Wall Street Journal. China recorded a $111.68 billion surplus in November, its third-largest single month surplus ever. Trump's tariffs and mounting trade tensions have lowered how much China is exporting to the U.S. by nearly 20%, but in response Chinese companies are also buying substantially less from America, with soybeans and other products falling sharply, keeping China at its recent levels of selling about three times as much to the U.S. as it buys. China has ramped up sales to Europe, Africa and South America, and is also routing some goods through those places for final assembly to then be shipped into the U.S., getting some products into the country around Trump's tariffs, per the New York Times.
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak after the central bank issues its latest interest rate decision this week.This week, the Federal Reserve takes center stage.
The U.S. central bank is expected to cut rates again on Wednesday, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could shed light on the Fed’s plans for 2026. U.S. stock indexes posted modest gains last week, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher.
Market watchers will also be following earnings reports from companies including Oracle, Broadcom, GameStop, Costco, Adobe, and AutoZone. Trade deficit data, jobless claims, and the latest update on the federal government budget are due as well.
Read to the bottom for our calendar of key events—and one more thing.
Investors Watching for Fed Interest Rate CutThe Federal Open Market Committee will hold its final meeting of the year, and many market watchers expect the central bank to cut interest rates Wednesday for a third straight time. Investors are expecting rates to drop to the 3.5% to 3.75% level, even as the debate continues over whether the central bank should move borrowing costs lower while inflation remains above the Fed’s target.
Fed officials will be making their decision without a full set of economic data to review, as economic reports are still delayed after the government shutdown. Fed officials won’t have the latest jobs report due to the data delays, but worries about the labor market are expected to push the central bank to cut interest rates again.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting press conference, where he is expected to lay out the central bank’s views on the economy, job market, and inflation. His comments could provide guidance on how the Fed will treat interest rates at its next meeting in late January.
Tech, Retail Earnings Highlight Corporate CalendarA handful of corporate earnings reports are likely to draw attention from investors as the spotlight remains on artificial intelligence.
Oracle reports on Wednesday. Its stock price plunged in November over concerns that the software firm was taking on too much debt to fund its AI infrastructure buildout. Also reporting is AI chipmaker Broadcom, whose share price has risen on optimism over its relationship with Google-parent Alphabet, a major purchaser of its chips. Graphics software maker Adobe’s Wednesday report will provide more insight into its AI sales despite a drop in the company’s stock price.
Several noteworthy retailers are also on the schedule. Costco’s report on Thursday may shed light on how tariffs are affecting the retailer, which recently announced it was suing the Trump administration over its trade policies. AutoZone’s report will highlight the company’s profit levels, which missed analyst expectations in the prior quarter as it raised spending to build out more stores.
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