Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

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Investopedia Markets News (all except PF) episodes

  • These Student Loan Borrowers Are Still Blocked From Getting Tax-Free Forgiveness

    Investopedia / Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Guevara / Getty Images

    Delays in federal repayment plan changes threaten access to tax-free forgiveness for some student loan borrowers.


    KEY TAKEAWAYS
    • Thousands of high-income student loan borrowers are being blocked from switching to the Income-Based Repayment (IBR) plan, preventing them from qualifying for tax-free loan forgiveness.
    • If processing delays are not rectified, these borrowers may not be able to have their loans discharged before the tax-free deadline expires at the end of the year.


    Some student loan borrowers are being blocked from switching to a federal repayment plan that would help them get tax-free loan forgiveness before the end of the year.

    Many borrowers are seeking to transition into the Income-Based Repayment plan, in which they may be eligible for student loan forgiveness before the end of the year. Those who become eligible for loan discharge in 2025, typically after making 20 or 25 years of qualifying payments, do not have to pay taxes on their loan forgiveness.

    The problem is that the Department of Education and loan servicers are holding the IBR transfer applications for some borrowers rather than processing them, making it impossible for many to become eligible for forgiveness this year. Forgiveness for those who reach eligibility after 2025 will be treated as taxable income.

    Scrambling To Switch Plans

    Millions of borrowers on the Saving for a Valuable Education repayment plan remain in forbearance, which prevents them from making payments that would qualify them for loan forgiveness.

    Some of these borrowers have already met the payment requirement for forgiveness or are one to two payments away from doing so. However, borrowers on SAVE are ineligible for forgiveness, so they must transfer to IBR, Pay as You Earn, or Income-Contingent Repayment to finish their payments.

    The IBR plan has been the primary plan that SAVE plan borrowers have transitioned to, as it generally offers more affordable payments than other plans and is the most stable option for the future, since the others will be phased out.

    However, there's a significant hiccup preventing many SAVE plan borrowers from switching to the IBR plan: an income requirement scheduled to be phased out has still not been removed.



    Why This Matters To Borrowers

    Millions of student loan borrowers could face a significant tax bill in the next couple of years if they don't have their loans discharged before the end of 2025, when a tax break expires.



    Why Some Borrowers Are Unable To Access IBR

    A partial financial hardship requirement in the IBR plan requires the applicant's payments to be lower than they would be under a standard 10-year repayment plan. That means that borrowers with high incomes or low loan amounts are typically rejected from IBR.

    A provision in the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" required the Department of Education to allow borrowers to switch to the Income-Based Repayment plan starting July 4, even if they do not meet the partial financial hardship requirement.

    However, student loan servicers continued to reject applicants who did not meet this requirement for months after that.

    In October, the Department of Education affirmed in a court filing that it would not deny borrowers who did not meet the partial financial hardship requirement. It also said borrowers who applied for IBR on or after July 4 but were rejected due to the requirement would be invited to reapply.

    Yet, the department has not provided any updates on when it will begin processing applications for these borrowers. When Investopedia reached out to spokespeople from the Department of Education, it directed borrowers to its website, which says system changes to implement the updates to IBR will be completed in winter 2025.

    Why Is Access to This Repayment Plan Important?

    The IBR plan remains the most affordable income-driven repayment plan for many SAVE borrowers seeking to make progress toward loan forgiveness.

    Borrowers who do not meet the partial financial hardship requirement are not eligible to enter into the PAYE plan. The ICR plan does not require partial financial hardship and provides loan forgiveness for borrowers after 25 years of qualifying payments. However, payments under the ICR plan are generally more expensive than those under the IBR plan.

    The Differences Between The IBR and ICR PlanRepayment Plan% of Discretionary Income Used to Calculate Payment AmountsTime Until Loan Forgiveness Is GrantedIBR Plan (for borrowers who first took out loans after July 1, 2014)10%20 yearsIBR Plan (for borrowers who borrowed before July 1, 2014)15%25 yearsICR Plan20%25 years

    IBR payments are capped at what the borrower would pay under a 10-year standard plan. This is particularly important for borrowers who do not meet the partial financial hardship criteria, as their payments, calculated based on their income, will generally be very high.

    SAVE borrowers who do not meet the partial financial hardship requirement and are looking to complete their payments before the loan forgiveness tax rule ends will either have to make high payments on ICR or hope they will be accepted into IBR in time.

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  • Separating Facts vs. Feelings as Investors

    Episode 268 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Nov. 10, 2025)

    Subscribe Now: Apple Podcasts / Spotify / PlayerFM

    Investors can’t help but feel like the stock market might be riding on the thin skin of a bubble, but the facts will tell us that even if we are, it doesn’t mean we should not expect more strong returns based on trends and price action. Carson Wealth’s Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese join the show to help up separate how we feel, and what’s really happening inside market dynamics. Plus, is AI too big to fail? The financial media has been pounding that drum given the hundreds of billions of dollars invested in building more "compute" to support the future plans of the biggest companies in the world. We’ll examine past euphorias to try to figure out the future.

    Links for Show Notes:

    • https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/facts-vs-feelings-podcast/
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  • The U.S. Just Minted Its Final Penny—We Tested What a Cent Can Still Buy

    Demetrius Freeman / The Washington Post via Getty Images

    Treasurer Brandon Beach and U.S. mint worker Mathew Primavera place the last penny to be minted into a machine at the U.S. mint in Philadelphia on Wednesday.


    Key Takeaways
    • The U.S. Treasury Department is no longer producing the penny, and it will start disappearing from circulation early next year.
    • The one-cent coin, first minted in the late 1700s, has become virtually worthless because of inflation. An Investopedia reporter took a ride around his hometown in New Jersey in May to see what he could buy for one penny.


    The U.S. government is no longer minting pennies, and soon, cash retail transactions will be rounded to the nearest nickel. What, exactly, does a single penny buy you these days? We took a drive around town to find out. 

    On Wednesday, the U.S. minted the last penny in Philadelphia.

    The one-cent coin had a good run. When first minted in the late 1700s, it was a small but useful amount of money, and could purchase something like a biscuit, a candle, or a piece of candy. But more than 200 years of inflation have eroded the value of the ubiquitous copper coins to the point where they're hardly worth the trouble of keeping track of, to say nothing of the expense of minting them—about four cents apiece, according to the Treasury Department.

    By early next year, there won't be enough pennies in circulation, and stores will have to start rounding to the nearest five cents, the Treasury Department said.

    That led us to wonder: Is a penny worth anything at all? Can you go into any business with a single penny and buy something with it? A quick Internet search suggested that a few items were available for a penny, including individual nails at some hardware stores, test sheets of paper at copy places, and one-cent stamps at the post office.

    I wanted to see for myself. I took a ride around my hometown of Marlton, N.J., on a rainy Thursday afternoon in May to see if my spare change could be converted into goods and services of any kind.

    The Gas Station

    The most straightforward way to spend a single penny seemed to be at the gas station, where regular unleaded was $3.099 a gallon. I pulled up to Wawa in my Chevy Malibu. By my calculations, I could get about two and a half tablespoons of gas, enough to power my car 450 feet to my next destination. I reached into my cup holder for a shiny copper-clad coin.

    In New Jersey, it's illegal to pump your own gas. I would have to actually ask the attendant for $0.01 worth of fuel.

    "This is going to sound weird," I said through the window. "I need exactly one cent worth of gas, or as close as you can get it."

    The attendant was a good sport, and was even enthusiastic when I told him about the demise of the penny, and my experiment.

    "I'll see what I can do," he said. "It's tricky though."

    The quickest of quick taps on the fuel pump sent a tiny dribble of gas into the tank, and the readout shot up to $0.04. The cheapest trip to the gas station of my life by far, but quadruple what I had hoped to pay. I would either have to find a gas station with a slower pump, or go back to the drawing board.

    The Sporting Goods Store

    My next idea was live bait: if I could find bait sold by the pound, perhaps an individual bit of fish food could be bought for a single penny and set free. It was about to be a nightcrawler's lucky day.

    But it was not to be. At Dick's Sporting Goods, the bait was sold in $4.99 tubs, and by a quick estimate, each individual worm cost at least a dime anyway. A penny won't even get you a meal for a robin these days.

    The Grocery Store

    With food as expensive as it is, this seemed like a longshot. But I did have one idea: Shop-Rite has a hot food bar for $8.99 a pound. One of the items is fried rice. Since the average grain of rice weighs about 21 milligrams, I should be able to get something like 50 grains of rice for a penny. I put a tiny spoonful of rice into a take-out tray and took it to the self checkout machine: it came up as 29 cents.

    I bought the rice, ate all but a few grains, and tried again. This time, the machine came up with an error and asked me to wait for a cashier. Maybe the nearly empty tray was too light for the scale?

    "This is going to sound crazy," I told the cashier when he arrived. "But I am trying to buy exactly one cent worth of rice."

    The cashier smiled and nodded, in the way you would do to someone who insists they're not crazy, manually entered a $0.01 cost to my transaction, and plunked my penny into the change receptacle. I had bought an absolutely minuscule amount of rice for one cent.

    Mission accomplished! A cash transaction for goods worth one penny.The Saga of the Penny

    Given the penny's extreme lack of buying power, it seems long past time for the government to get out of the business of minting them.

    Indeed, people have been calling for the death of the one-cent coin for decades. But the penny still has its defenders, and a surprising amount of research has been published about the pros and cons of eliminating the coin.

    In February, a researcher at the University of Toronto found that getting rid of the penny could actually cost the government money in the end, since it would result in the need for more nickels, which also cost more to mint than their face value.

    In a post-penny world, it's unlikely that price tags will change to reflect the new five-cent minimum denomination, if the experience of our neighbor to the north is any guide. Price tags ending in .99 are still common in Canada, which eliminated the penny in 2013.

    Now, anything costing 99 cents will be rounded up to $1 at the cash register. Believe it or not, researchers have studied the potential impact of this. A 2001 study found that merchants would pocket all those extra pennies, equating to a "rounding tax" of $600 million a year on customers. But those findings were challenged by a 2007 article that found the "rounding tax" virtually disappeared when you took sales tax into account, since it pushed up prices on individual items enough to make them round down sometimes.

    And if you are the type of person who sees the opportunity to get free stuff by making one- or two-cent purchases and having them rounded down to a cool $0, lawmakers are ahead of you. The law eliminating the penny specifies that those amounts will round up to five cents.

    Editor's Note: This article originally ran in May. It's been updated to reflect that the last penny was minted in November.

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  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens

    News of the day for Nov. 13, 2025

    Mike Kemp / Contributor / Getty Images

    Shares of Dow component Disney are lower in premarket trading after the company reported quarterly revenue that came in below Wall Street expectations.

    Stock futures are slightly lower after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 48,000 for the first time; President Donald Trump signed funding legislation to reopen the government through January, ending the 43-day shutdown; Walt Disney (DIS) shares are lower after the entertainment giant posted weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue; Cisco (CSCO) shares are soaring after the networking company's results topped Wall Street estimates; and Sealed Air (SEE) shares are moving higher on a report the packaging firm could be taken private. Here's what you need to know today.

    1. Stock Futures Tick Lower After Dow Hits Second Straight Record High

    Stock futures are slightly lower this morning after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high Wednesday ahead of the vote in Congress to end the federal government shutdown. Dow futures were down 0.1% recently, while futures linked to the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.2%. The S&P finished fractionally higher on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq is riding a two-day losing streak. Gold futures were up 0.8% at $4,245 an ounce, trading at their highest levels in three weeks. Bitcoin was at $103,000, up from an overnight low of around $101,000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects borrowing costs on all sorts of consumer loans, inched higher to 4.09%.

    2. Trump Signs Bill to Reopen Government Through January, Ending Longest-Ever Shutdown

    President Donald Trump signed legislation passed in the House of Representatives on Wednesday that ended the longest U.S. government shutdown at 43 days. The bill, passed on a 222-209 vote, will fund government operations through the end of January. The legislation doesn’t restore the healthcare subsidies that were at the center of the shutdown, though congressional leaders have promised a vote on that issue in December. After Trump signed the bill, the Office of Management and Budget ordered all furloughed federal workers to return to their positions on Thursday. That would include staffers at government statistical agencies, whose absences have led to the delay of several key economic reports. The deal is also expected to eventually bring an end to the flight delays that have resulted from air traffic controller staffing issues.

    3. Disney Shares Drop on Lower-than-Expected Quarterly Revenue

    Walt Disney (DIS) shares are sliding in premarket trading after the entertainment giant reported revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations. Disney reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $22.46 billion, a decline from the year-ago quarter and lower than the $22.75 billion expected from analysts tracked by Visible Alpha. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.11 were also lower than the same quarter last year, but came in ahead of the analyst consensus of $1.04. The company reported 8% sales growth in its closely-watched direct-to-consumer segment, which includes its streaming service, while revenue from its legacy TV business declined. Disney shares, which through Wednesday's close had gained about 5% so far this year, were down more than 4% ahead of the opening bell.

    4. Cisco Shares Jump on Strong Earnings Report

    Cisco (CSCO) shares after surging the networking technology company posted results that topped analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. Cisco said its fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 8% to $14.88 billion, ahead of the $14.76 billion consensus estimate of analysts tracked by Visible Alpha. Adjusted earnings per share of $1 was two cents better than the analyst consensus. The company has been looking to capitalize on demand for artificial intelligence.  "Our relevance in AI continues to build and we have a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus refresh opportunity starting to ramp, with strong demand for our refreshed networking products,” Chief Financial Officer Mark Patterson said in a release. Cisco shares were up more than 6% in recent premarket trading.

    5. Packaging Provider Sealed Air Soars on Report of Buyout Talks

    Sealed Air (SEE) shares are sharply higher this morning following a report that the maker of Bubble Wrap could be taken private. The Wall Street Journal reported that buyout firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice was likely to value the company above its current market value of almost $5.4 billion. Citing people familiar with the matter, the Journal reported that a deal for the Charlotte, N.C.-based firm "could come together soon, though it remains possible talks could fall apart or another buyer could emerge." Shares of Sealed Air jumped more than 20% ahead of the opening bell.

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  • Disney Tops Profit Estimates But Revenue Falls Short as Linear TV Struggles Continue

    Mario Tama / Getty Images

    Disney has been in the headlines over its dispute with Alphabet-owned YouTube TV, preventing channels like ESPN and ABC from appearing on the streaming service


    Key Takeaways
    • The Walt Disney Co.'s fiscal fourth quarter results came in mixed Thursday, with profit beating estimates but revenue falling short.
    • Direct-to-consumer revenue grew 8% year-over-year to $6.25 billion, as the media giant's subscriber numbers for Disney+ and Hulu topped estimates.
    • Disney forecast double-digit adjusted EPS growth for its new fiscal year, and said it expects to double its stock buybacks to $7 billion.


    The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) on Thursday reported better profit for the final quarter of its fiscal year than analysts had forecast, but revenue fell short and shares slipped in premarket trading.

    Disney reported fourth-quarter revenue of $22.46 billion, down slightly year-over-year and below the Visible Alpha consensus of $22.75 billion. Adjusted earnings of $1.11 per share fell 3% but topped analysts' estimates.

    Direct-to-consumer segment revenue, which includes Disney's streaming services like Hulu, ESPN, and Disney+, grew 8% to $6.25 billion but was below expectation. Disney said it had 132 million Disney+ subscribers at quarter end and 196 million combined Disney+ and Hulu subscribers, both better than expected.

    Things were gloomier in Disney's linear TV business, where domestic networks revenue and operating income dropped 16% and 21%, respectively, as the yearslong trend of falling viewership of traditional TV continues. Disney said the operating income decline was "due to lower advertising driven by decreases in viewership and political advertising."

    Ahead of the report, analysts said they would be watching for growth in Disney's theme parks and sports content, along with the health of its streaming business. In streaming, the quarter saw prices increase and negative consumer sentiment that may have driven cancellations of subscriptions over Disney's temporary suspension of Jimmy Kimmel's late-night show.

    Disney shares were down 3.5% shortly after the results were released. They entered the day up roughly 5% since the start of the year, below the 16.5% advance of the benchmark S&P 500.



    Why This Matters For You

    Disney is an entertainment giant, touching many things you likely watch or interact with daily, from sports on ESPN to news on ABC, as well as its Disney+ streaming service, Marvel movies and TV shows, and its theme parks and cruises.



    Looking ahead, Disney said it expects adjusted EPS to grow by double digits in fiscal 2026 and 2027, and said it is planning to double its fiscal 2026 stock buyback target to $7 billion compared to fiscal 2025.

    Disney's results were also mixed last quarter, when the company also announced a non-binding agreement that would see the NFL take a 10% stake in ESPN while the sports broadcaster would get the rights to show a range of league content on its streaming service and acquire the NFL Network.

    Disney has been in the news recently over its carriage dispute with YouTube TV, owned by Alphabet (GOOGL), which has seen the former's channels like ESPN and ABC be unavailable on the streaming service since late October. The Athletic reported Wednesday that there may be renewed momentum on a deal as Disney CEO Bob Iger and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai are now involved in negotiations, noting that a key sticking point remained how much YouTube TV would pay to broadcast Disney's non-sports and news channels like Freeform, FX, and National Geographic.

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  • Investors Are Using Apps to Match Others' Trades. What to Know About 'Copy Trading'

    Erik McGregor / LightRocket via Getty Images

    Some trading services let you automatically track others' trades.


    Key Takeaways
    • Brokerages are starting to roll out copy trading on their platforms for U.S. users.
    • eToro founder Johnathan "Yoni" Assia said its copy-trading product would be "an important driver of growth in the U.S."


    "Copy + paste" is becoming a trending investment strategy.

    The masses have long tried to emulate legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, religiously reading their shareholder letters and tracking their portfolio changes in the hopes of capturing some of their returns. Copy trading, also known as mirror trading, isn't new, but brokerages see opportunity in rebooting the idea—powered by a social networks and automated portfolios—and rolling it out to American investors.

    Not everyone wants their trades to be public, but many don't seem to mind. Brokerages and other firms have rolled out tools that let traders share thoughts, ideas and even log their trades for others' consumption. Some investors have chosen to eye not just the portfolios of investors, but those of politicians and other officials.



    Why This Matters to Investors

    It can be costly to put your money behind another investor's picks—at least in the sense that, broadly speaking, active managers tend to underperform the market. New digital services make it easier to track other traders and, in some cases, less expensive—but it may not be the right move for everyone.



    The 2023-launched Dub app, which is likened to TikTok for investing and claims it is the first U.S. regulated copy-trading platform in the U.S., lets users build portfolios that mirror trades of politicians and celebrities pulled from public filings. Robinhood (HOOD) recently announced a "Social" product, expected to arrive next year, and crypto-first investment platform eToro (ETOR) said it is gradually rolling out that feature in the U.S.

    Roughly a third of eToro's almost 4 million user accounts use its copy-trading product, according to CEO Johnathan "Yoni" Assia, who said its it would be "an important driver of growth in the U.S.," during its earnings call last week, per transcripts provided by AlphaSense. The company's 15% rise in trades in the past quarter was driven by "strong momentum" behind copy trading, he said.

    On the eToro app, copy-trading means picking from a carousel of traders listed with profile pics, handles and their 12-month returns, which as of Wednesday afternoon ranged from 115% to 33%. A Top 10 "most copied user" @Luistoalana, to name one example, has a portfolio of 21 assets, 95% in stocks and the rest in crypto; he often trades Palantir (PLTR), Chargepoint (CHPT), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). EToro's stock trades are free, though it charges to trade some other assets.

    While traders can log big returns over various timespans, active managers have historically been unable to consistently beat the market. The mandatory disclaimer most financial professionals use "past performance does not guarantee future results" would apply here.

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  • Historic Government Shutdown Is Coming to an End—But Another Budget Fight Looms

    Graeme Sloan / Bloomberg via Getty Images

    Federal workers will be back on the job after the House voted Wednesday to end the 43-day government shutdown.


    Key Takeaways
    • The House of Representatives passed a bill ending the 43-day-long shutdown of the federal government.
    • Once President Donald Trump signs the bill, shuttered government agencies can reopen and employees can be given back pay.


    The longest and potentially most economically harmful government shutdown in American history is on its way to ending in its 43rd day.

    The House of Representatives voted to pass a bill on Wednesday, funding the government until Jan. 30. That vote sets the stage for the shutdown to end after President Donald Trump signs the funding bill into law.

    Representatives followed the lead of the Senate, which broke the impasse this weekend after moderate Democratic lawmakers joined Republicans to vote in favor of the funding bill.

    The shutdown, which began Oct. 1, has been longer than the previous record shutdown of 34 days in 2018 and 2019.



    What This Means For The Economy

    The end of the shutdown, despite the lack of a resolution in its central conflict, could remove some of the uncertainty that has been plaguing the economy in recent months.



    The shutdown delayed paychecks for federal workers, held back payment of food benefits for needy families, cancelled flights, halted the collection and reporting of crucial economic data and undermined consumer confidence among other ripple effects. Forecasters expect the economy to bounce back and make up much of the ground it lost once federal workers receive their back pay, but not without some permanent damage.

    Although the shutdown is over, the conflict that triggered it remains. Democratic lawmakers initially blocked funding bills because they wanted to extend a health insurance subsidy that lowered premiums for Affordable Care Act insurance plans. That subsidy is now set to expire in January, driving up premiums by an average of $1,000 a month for those currently receiving the credits, according to an estimate by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a progressive think tank.

    The bill to reopen the government does not include an extension of the subsidies, as Democrats had demanded. The bill reopens the government for just over two months, setting up another potential showdown if the two sides do not reach an agreement before then.

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  • Disney Is Set to Report Earnings Thursday. Here's What You Need to Know

    Gary Hershorn / Getty Images

    Disney shares have added about 5% in 2025 so far, lagging the S&P 500's nearly 17%.


    Key Takeaways
    • Disney is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell Thursday.
    • Wall Street analysts said they'll be particularly focused on growth in Disney's streaming business.


    Walt Disney Co. is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell Thursday, with Wall Street analysts looking for growth from its streaming business and theme parks, as well as sports.

    Citi analysts, who recently raised their price target for Disney stock (DIS) to $145 from $140, said they expect investors to be particularly focused on updates to the firm’s streaming outlook through its direct-to-consumer segment, given a hike in prices that took effect in October, and the potential impact of consumer responses to Jimmy Kimmel’s temporary cancellation.

    Investors and consumers alike may also be watching for updates on a potential deal between YouTube TV and Disney. ESPN, ABC and other Disney channels have been dark for YouTube TV subscribers since the end of last month amid a dispute over fees.

    Shares of Disney have had a relatively weak year so far. The stock is up about 5% for 2025 as of Wednesday's close near $117, lagging the S&P 500's nearly 17% gain.



    Why This Is Significant

    A stronger-than-expected earnings report from Disney could help boost enthusiasm for the stock despite challenges earlier in the year.



    The entertainment giant is projected to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 on a less than 1% year-over-year rise in revenue to $22.75 billion, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Its direct-to-consumer and experiences segments are seen driving the gains, along with sports, while revenue from Disney's linear networks business—home to its traditional broadcast business of networks such as ABC, ESPN, and Disney Channel—could shrink from a year ago.

    Heading into the results, Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the stock, with all of the six analysts with current ratings compiled by Visible Alpha calling it a "buy." Their mean target of $146 would suggest 25% upside from Wednesday's close.

    This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect analysts' consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share.

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  • Fed Debate Heats Up: Cut Interest Rates to Save Jobs or Hold Firm Against Inflation?

    Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

    Fed Governor Stephen Miran is one of the policy committee members advocating for a rate cut in December.


    Key Takeaways
    • Federal Reserve officials shared opposing viewpoints as to whether the Fed should cut its benchmark interest rate in December.
    • Raphael Bostic argued inflation is a greater threat than unemployment, and said the Fed should keep rates higher longer to combat price increases.
    • Stephen Miran predicted high inflation would subside as a result of falling housing costs, so the Fed should cut rates.


    Fed officials are divided on whether to cut its influential interest rate in December, as illustrated by policymaker remarks this week.

    Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee spoke publicly on Wednesday, but they each made very different cases. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic argued for keeping rates steady, while Governor Stephen Miran contended that the federal funds rate is too high and should be cut quickly and steeply.

    It's no wonder that financial markets are uncertain about the Fed's next move at its December meeting. Traders are currently pricing in a 60% chance the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point next month, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.



    What This Means For The Economy

    The debate among Fed officials underscores the U.S. economy's precarious position as it faces both the risk of rising unemployment and high inflation at the same time, an environment known as "stagflation."



    The Fed is torn between the two halves of its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high. Typically, when inflation is high, the central bank raises the fed funds rate, which increases borrowing costs on loans and slows the economy to bring supply and demand into balance. When the job market is struggling, the Fed can lower interest rates to make loans more affordable and encourage hiring.

    But right now, both data points are trending in the wrong direction.

    "I believe that risks to both of the mandated objectives make this the most challenging environment since I became a central banker in 2017," Bostic said at the Economics Club of Georgia in Atlanta.

    The Fed cut interest rates twice at its last two meetings, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell went out of his way last month to say a third cut is not guaranteed. Whether it happens or not hinges on how Fed policymakers balance the threat of inflation against a surge in unemployment.

    The Case To Worry About Inflation

    Bostic said he favored holding rates steady, although it was an "extremely close call."

    He also noted that inflation has been higher than the Fed's 2% target for almost five years, when pandemic-era supply shortages drove a harrowing bout of price increases. And by many measures, inflation has inched higher in recent months, at least partly because President Donald Trump's tariffs are pushing up prices.

    "I see little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid- to late 2026, at the earliest," Bostic said.

    Businesses plan to increase prices further in the coming months, according to surveys conducted by the Atlanta Fed. That's a major reason why Bostic said he is more concerned about inflation, even though the ongoing government shutdown has delayed much of the price data the Fed normally uses to make such decisions.

    Slowing Home-Price increases Could Ease Inflation

    Bostic's colleague, Miran, offered the opposite view on Wednesday in a fireside chat at Cambridge University in Britain. High interest rates are not necessary to combat inflation and, in fact, risk harming the job market, he said.

    In Miran's estimation, inflation is going to turn around soon. As evidence, Miran pointed to the fact that housing cost increases, which are by far the most important component of inflation indexes, are slowing down.

    And since those prices take about a year to filter through into inflation measures such as the Consumer Price Index, there is already a lot of disinflation in the pipeline. Therefore, he said, the Fed should be cutting rates aggressively, and the current interest rates are fighting yesterday's inflation battle.

    "I think Fed policy is too restrictive," he said. "I think that policy is being made on a backward-looking basis."

    Waiting For Fresh Data

    With the government shutdown expected to end Wednesday, the Federal Reserve may finally get to see some government data that could sway its opinion. The federal government shutdown delayed key reports on the job market and inflation, but some of them could be released before the Fed's next meeting.

    Economists at Goldman Sachs predicted the Bureau of Labor Statistics would release a long-awaited report on the September job market within a week of reopening.

    Reports for October are more problematic and may never be released, since the government was shut down when the BLS and other agencies were supposed to be collecting that data. And reports for November could be delayed until after the FOMC's meeting Dec. 9 and 10, according to the Goldman analysis.

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  • Social Security Checks Could Rise by $200 a Month Under New Senate Proposal

    Investopedia / Photo Illustration by Alice Morgan / Getty Images

    A new Senate proposal could raise Social Security payments by $200 a month starting in 2026.


    KEY TAKEAWAYS
    • A proposed bill would increase Social Security benefits by an extra $200 for the first six months of 2026.
    • Lawmakers say this tax-free boost would help beneficiaries afford rising costs for essential expenses, such as medication and groceries.


    Your Social Security check could be a couple of hundred dollars bigger in the first half of 2026, if a proposed Congressional bill passes.

    Several Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill to the Senate at the end of October that would raise monthly Social Security payments by $200 starting in January and ending on June 30. They say these additional benefits would help beneficiaries keep up with the increasing costs of essentials, such as medication and groceries.

    "Our seniors have spent a lifetime of hard work paying into Social Security, but the payouts simply aren’t keeping up with rising costs, and this year’s annual cost-of-living adjustment is not enough to keep seniors afloat," said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), in a prepared statement.



    Why This Matters to Beneficiaries

    Many older Americans, who typically have higher expenses than the average worker, have struggled to afford rising costs. Lawmakers say this proposed boost, which has yet to be voted on by the Senate or the House, could help Social Security beneficiaries afford essentials next year.



    What Would The $200 Payment Mean For You?

    The proposed payments would be in addition to the 2.8% COLA increase for 2026 Social Security benefits, which will result in approximately a $56 increase in monthly checks.

    The $200 payments would be given to beneficiaries who receive Social Security payments, Supplemental Security Income, railroad retirement benefits, and veterans' benefits, if the proposed bill is enacted. The additional payments would also not be considered beneficiaries' income, meaning the extra $200 will be essentially tax-free.

    Why Is The Extra Payment Needed?

    Many lawmakers and advocates have argued that the formula the Social Security Administration currently uses does not reflect the actual expenses of beneficiaries.

    Annual cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits are calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). However, some legislators and advocates argue for using the Consumer Price Index for Americans aged 62 and older, known as CPI-E.

    The CPI-E is an experimental inflation index, and as such, has a wider margin of error compared to CPI-W. However, critics of the current calculations say it would ensure benefits more accurately reflect the rising costs Social Security beneficiaries face.

    Some Social Security beneficiaries have reported that their checks are not keeping up with rising prices. According to a survey by AARP, the majority of older Americans believe that the 2026 cost-of-living increase will likely be insufficient to keep pace with their rising costs.

    Premiums for Medicare Part B, which many Social Security beneficiaries must pay, are expected to outpace the 2026 COLA. Other medical costs, such as prescription drugs and hospital stays, have continued to increase and consume a larger portion of beneficiaries' checks.

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