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• At 36 days, the U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history, and many don’t see an end coming soon despite some fresh proposals from lawmakers.
• While the current shutdown centers around health care funding, past disputes have involved funding for a border wall and efforts to balance the federal budget.

The government has never been closed this long. And there’s little indication that it will reopen anytime soon.

As of Wednesday, the work stoppage that began on Oct. 1 has reached its 36th day, making it the longest of any U.S. shutdown. The 2018 shutdown was the previous record holder, which lasted 35 days.

The U.S. government is a massive economic driver, so a shutdown can have a direct impact on the nation's gross domestic product. It funds businesses, employs millions of people and supplies public assistance to millions of others. In addition, a shutdown also weakens the confidence of both investors and consumers.

Lawmakers have been discussing a compromise over the impasse, which stems from funding cuts to the Affordable Care Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, is floating a plan that could allow for a vote on ACA, The Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, some Democrats are looking to leverage the party’s Tuesday election victories into a compromise with congressional Republicans on the funding standoff, according to a CNN report. 

Meanwhile, participants on the Polymarket prediction site are growing less confident that a solution will come soon. While nearly 70% of respondents on Tuesday believed the shutdown would be over by Nov. 15, only 60% had the same response Wednesday.

While both of America's longest shutdowns have occurred under President Donald Trump, the reasons behind them are different. Still, it could be similar pressures that bring both of them to an end. 

In 2018, Trump wanted $5.7 billion in funding for a border wall with Mexico, which Democrats opposed. More than 35 full days after the shutdown began, Trump signed legislation that included $1.3 billion for border security, though none of it could be used to build “structures” along the border.

Part of the motivation to resolve the shutdown came from public reaction to the loss of government services, especially around air travel. Absences among Transportation Security Administration staff and air traffic controllers were creating lengthy delays for passengers.

Some of the same issues are brewing in the current shutdown, as reports find that more unpaid air traffic controllers are calling in sick, helping to put more pressure on the nation’s air travel system.

Budget battles are usually at the heart of government shutdowns, and the next longest shutdown that ended in January 1996 came about as a result of a dispute between then-President Bill Clinton and the House Republican majority over how to balance the budget.

After 22 days of government work stoppage, the two sides reached a budget agreement that didn’t lead to significant changes to the budget, and voters largely blamed Republicans for the shutdown, The Wall Street Journal reported.

• The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in a lawsuit seeking to overturn many of President Donald Trump's tariffs.
  
• The justices expressed skepticism about the administration's legal justification for imposing the tariffs, but the outcome was far from certain.
  
• A ruling against the tariffs would force the administration to impose import taxes by other means, which have significant limitations.
  

The fate of President Donald Trump's trade war is now up to the nine justices of the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments Wednesday in a case challenging President Donald Trump's authority to impose double-digit tariffs on U.S. trading partners without permission from Congress.

The case concerns the International Emergency Executive Powers Act of 1977, which Trump invoked when imposing his wide-ranging "reciprocal" tariffs against most countries in the world, declaring a national emergency in the process. The IEEPA tariffs account for about half the tariff revenue collected in 2025 so far, according to economists at Deutsche Bank.

Both liberal and conservative justices probed the administration's arguments for imposing the tariffs, and also poked a few holes in the counter-arguments. But both sides agreed on one thing: that the stakes of the case are high.

"Tomorrow’s United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country," Trump posted on social media Tuesday. "With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us."

The Supreme Court could, in a matter of months, upend President Donald Trump's most significant economic policy and deal a blow to his efforts to reshape U.S. trade with the rest of the world.

Lower courts ruled to strike down the tariffs, although the Supreme Court allowed them to stay in place while the case is decided.

Attorney Neal Katyal, arguing on behalf of companies who sued to overturn the import taxes, said the law does not allow Trump to impose tariffs, which are effectively a tax on the American people.

"It's simply implausible that in enacting IEEPA, Congress handed the president the power to overhaul the entire tariff system and the American economy in the process, allowing him to set and reset tariffs on any and every product from any and every country in any and all times," he said.

Some of the justices voiced concerns that allowing the tariffs to stand would give too much power to the president, and wondered if a future liberal president could use similar "emergency" powers to declare a "climate emergency" and impose tariffs on cars or other products that emit greenhouse gasses, for example.

"As a practical matter, you can't get this power back once it's handed over to the President," Justice Neil Gorsuch said. "It's a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people's elected representatives."

To some experts, the questioning indicated the justices were leaning toward overturning at least some of Trump's tariffs. The administration could still impose tariffs through other legal channels, but those come with more limitations, for instance, requiring an investigation into other countries' unfair trading practices.

"After that argument, if I were the Trump Administration, I'd be burning the midnight oil over the next couple of weeks drawing up tariff backup plans," Peter Harrell, a visiting scholar at Georgetown Law School, posted on social media.

Prediction-market gamblers on Polymarket were pricing in a 27% chance Trump's tariffs would survive, leaving a considerable amount of uncertainty about the outcome of the case. A ruling could come as soon as December, analysts at Bank of America said in a research note.

"Certainly, it seems possible that the Supreme Court will issue an opinion holding that the IEEPA tariffs exceeded President Trump’s authority, consistent with those of the lower courts," trade expert Dave Townsend, a partner in law firm Dorsey & Whitney’s international trade group, wrote in a commentary. "It is, however, far from clear what direction the Supreme Court is headed in its ultimate opinion.”

The case has significant implications for the trade wars that have rattled the economy by fueling uncertainty and hurting household budgets, as importers have passed the costs along to customers. The tariffs are estimated to cost the average family $1,800 in 2025, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

If the Supreme Court went so far as to order refunds of the tariffs already collected, it could give significant relief to businesses and households who have either directly or indirectly paid the import taxes, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary.

"The tariffs have been especially onerous on small businesses and low and middle-income households," she wrote. "If the Supreme Court overturns these tariffs, it will be a victory for the small businesses. The government will have to refund at least $100 billion, which will infuse cash into the economy in 2026 and boost profits for many businesses."

• A hard disk drive maker's stock traded higher on Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025, while softer-than-expected financial results weighed on shares of an AI server manufacturer.
• Seagate Technology announced a deal with its lenders to exchange debt for cash and stock, and shares of the data storage company advanced.
• Super Micro Computer shares dropped after the company missed analysts' estimates for its fiscal first quarter.

Shares of a data storage provider pushed higher after the company announced a deal to exchange debt for cash and shares. Meanwhile, an artificial intelligence (AI) server maker came under pressure after posting lackluster earnings results.

Major U.S. equities indexes gained ground after the latest ADP payrolls data showed a return to private-sector jobs growth in October following several months of declines. The private payroll report is in the spotlight as official government data releases remain suspended during the government shutdown, which on Wednesday entered a record-breaking 36th day.

The S&P 500 added 0.4% Wednesday. The Dow advanced 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq powered 0.7% higher. All three market gauges bounced back from losses posted in the prior session. Read more in Investopedia's daily market recap.

Seagate Technology (STX) shares surged 10.1% after the maker of solid-state drives and other data storage systems announced a deal with lenders to exchange $500 million in debt for cash and stock. Data storage companies have benefited from strong demand related to the buildout of AI infrastructure. Shares of Seagate's rival Western Digital (WDC) gained 5.2%.

Other AI-exposed stocks enjoyed solid gains Wednesday, many of them bouncing back from losses posted in the prior session amid concerns about elevated valuations. Shares of memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU) gained 8.9%, clawing back the previous day's steep decline.

Johnson Controls (JCI), a provider of smart building technologies, reported better-than-expected revenue and adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter. Growth in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas helped offset pressure in the Asia-Pacific business, which was impacted by lower volumes in China. Johnson Controls shares jumped 8.8%.

Shares of medical device maker Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH) plunged 15.2%, losing the most of any stock in the S&P 500. The maker of hip and knee replacements missed quarterly sales forecasts and lowered its outlook for 2025 organic sales growth, citing softness in Latin America, European emerging markets, and noncore businesses.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell short of sales and adjusted profit estimates for its fiscal first quarter, and shares of the AI server maker dropped 11.3%. The company said part of the shortfall related to a change in delivery schedules for major AI deals, which resulted in revenue being pushed back into the following quarter.

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) shares tumbled 10.6% after the Ticketmaster parent reported lower-than-expected adjusted profit for the third quarter. Although revenue rose year-over-year, boosted by strong spending on live events, higher direct operating costs weighed on profitability.

• Officials at the Federal Reserve are missing critical data during the government shutdown, relying instead on reports from private companies.
  
• There are indications that hiring continued to slow since the government's most recent report in August.
  
• Private-sector inflation data was mixed, with one index rising to a two-year high and another showing prices falling.
  

While the government’s statistical agencies aren't publishing crucial data during the ongoing shutdown, Federal Reserve officials are closely watching private-sector data to shine a light on economic trends.

The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other agencies is considered the “gold standard” by economists and provides the most comprehensive view of the economy. However, alternative indicators do provide the Fed with some insight into what is happening with inflation and the job market during the shutdown. Data is crucial to help the Fed achieve its dual mandate of keeping price increases stable at 2% per year and maintaining high employment.

“It doesn't replace the government data, but it gives us a picture,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week at a press conference following the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by a quarter of a point. “If there were material developments, I think we would pick that up.”

The private data is especially important because the most recent official reports showed inflation rising and the job market weakening. That raises the risk that the U.S. will slip into "stagflation" as trade wars and the ongoing government shutdown send shockwaves through the economy.

At the same press conference, Powell mentioned several indicators that Fed officials are closely monitoring during the federal data blackout.

Here's how economists, businesses, lawmakers and other policy experts are monitoring economic trends and making decisions during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

Here’s what those specific indicators say about the economy:

Although the Department of Labor is not publishing its usual weekly report on jobless claims, analysts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan were able to piece together an estimate based on reporting from states. According to that estimate, 219,000 people filed for unemployment last week, down from 232,000 the week before, Reuters reported.

Earlier this week, Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted that while recent data indicate a solid job market, it has continued to weaken since the last official report in August, and that the unemployment rate had crept up to 4.3% in August from 4% in January.

“Taken together, the slightly rising unemployment rate indicates the labor market is softening, but only modestly so,” she said.

Powell said he was looking at private data on job openings on sites including Indeed, which similarly signaled a slowdown in the job market.

Last week, its job posting index fell to its lowest level since February 2021, continuing a downward trend that began in mid-2022.

Payroll provider ADP publishes reports on both job gains and losses in the private sector, as well as worker pay.

ADP’s most recent reports have shown a slowing job market. Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, slightly exceeding the 35,000 jobs lost over the previous two months, and far below the typical six-digit monthly pace of job creation.

The Fed will see one more ADP report before its next policy meeting in December.

Powell said private data provider PriceStats supplies a look at inflation in the absence of official data such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PriceStats generates a daily price index through web scraping of online prices. The data is not publicly available, and the company did not immediately respond to a request for the data.

Financial firm State Street reported PriceStats’ index rose 2.66% over the year in September, marking its highest annual inflation since 2023. By comparison, the Consumer Price Index rose 3% in September, its highest level since January.

Software company Adobe also publishes a price index based on data from online retailers.

Online prices actually fell 2.9% over the year in October, according to Adobe, marking a 26th consecutive month of continuous deflation.

Powell shouted out the Fed’s own Beige Book as an important, if anecdotal, source of economic data.

The Beige Book compiles reports from Fed branches all over the country. In October, the report showed the job market losing steam in its low-hiring, low-firing limbo.

The next Beige Book is due Nov. 26.

• McDonald's saw a surge in traffic from high-income Americans, while sales to low-income households continued to trail off, CEO Christopher Kempczinski said.
• The company will continue to lean into value, which Kempczinski says appeals to people across the economic spectrum.

McDonald’s is becoming a stomping ground for the well-to-do.

The burger chain’s emphasis on inexpensive meals has attracted more high-income Americans, the company said, though it hasn’t stemmed a two-year slide in traffic from low-income consumers. Traffic among high-earners increased by nearly double digits last quarter, while visits from low-income households fell by a similar amount, CEO Christopher Kempczinski said on a conference call Wednesday. 

The chain will continue to concentrate on bargains, Kempczinski said. McDonald’s (MCD) brought back Extra Value Meals this fall and its $2.99 Snack Wrap this summer, after previously rolling out $5 Meal Deals.

"There's this idea that value only matters to low-income [consumers]. But value matters to everybody," Kempczinski said, according to a transcript made available from AlphaSense.

Lowering prices and offering deals may not be enough to bring out low-income households, as McDonald's executives said earlier today. Growing cost-of-living expenses may have left some with significantly less money for non-essentials.

Other brands with a reputation for serving the working class are also seeing a similar shift. Families with six-figure incomes have been flocking to Walmart (WMT). Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) are drawing more high-earners, as are thrift-shops and second-hand stores like Savers Value Village (SVV). Unease about the economy may be compelling wealthier Americans to save, including by trading down to less expensive food and fashion options, analysts and companies have said.

Meanwhile, restaurants are reporting more caution among some customer groups—including younger Americans, Cava (CAVA) executives said yesterday.

Comparatively inexpensive options have grown popular at McDonald's. Extra Value Meals account for about 30% of all domestic transactions, CFO Ian Borden said, and one-fifth of all McDonald's customers ordered a Snack Wrap during the first month of its return.

Business improved as McDonald's deepened the discount available in the U.S., executives said. The company reported a 2.4% year-over-year increase in domestic comparable-restaurant sales last quarter.

McDonald's reported $3.18 in diluted earnings per share on nearly $7.08 trillion in revenue. Analysts expected a bit more—$3.33 in earnings per share on nearly $7.09 trillion in revenue, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha. Still, shares of McDonald's were recently up 2%, putting them up some 5% for 2025.

McDonald's expects U.S. comparable-restaurant sales to grow in the fourth quarter, Borden said. Still, the chain believes low-income consumers may remain wary until there's a meaningful shift in the macroeconomic environment and the cost of living, Kempczinski said.

• AMD's record quarterly results and upbeat outlook on strong demand for its data center chips met a muted reception from investors amid worries about an AI bubble.
• Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the chipmaker, with several raising their targets for its stock following the results.

Advanced Micro Devices investors have become harder to impress.

The chipmaker yesterday posted record quarterly results and an upbeat outlook on surging demand for its data center chips—and its stock has hardly budged. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares were up about 2%, near $255, in recent trading as the broader tech sector looked to rebound from yesterday's sell-off.

Here's a roundup of what Wall Street analysts said about AMD after last night's results.

This year's big stock gains for chipmakers like AMD have given rise to worries about an AI bubble. The weak reaction to AMD's strong results could underscore growing uncertainty around the sector—or, at least, the rich valuations carried by stocks in it.

Analysts at Oppenheimer, who maintained a neutral rating, voiced some concerns about AMD's reputation as a "second horse supplier" to AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA), preferring to stay on the sidelines while waiting to see more from AMD's ability to compete with its AI strategy.

Most Wall Street analysts, however, remain bullish on the chipmaker's stock amid expectations of growing market share for AMD.

Jefferies and HSBC analysts, who have "buy" or equivalent ratings for the stock and $300 price targets, said they came away from Tuesday's results convinced of AMD's potential for more AI-driven growth. HSBC called AMD's recent deal with OpenAI a "game changing" development.

Wedbush, which boosted its target to $290 from $270, said it is looking forward to an Analyst Day event next Tuesday for more color on its roadmap.

While Wall Street's targets and ratings may be in flux, the mean price target on AMD's shares is around $275 based on Visible Alpha data and Investopedia calculations. About twice as many analysts have "buy" ratings as have "holds," with no bearish ratings currently tracked by the service.

Shares of AMD have more than doubled in 2025 so far, with much of its recent gains coming in the wake of the OpenAI deal announced last month.

• Tech stocks rebounded from Tuesday's losses to help boost the major U.S. equities indexes Wednesday afternoon. 
• Seagate Technology and other data storage stocks led gains on the S&P 500.
• McDonald's shares also climbed as its U.S. same-store sales exceeded expectations.

Tech stocks rebounded from Tuesday's losses to help boost the major U.S. equities indexes Wednesday afternoon. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all advanced.

Seagate Technology (STX) and other data storage stocks like Western Digital (WDC) led gains on the S&P 500. Seagate said it has a deal with lenders to exchange $500 million in debt for cash and stock.

Targa Resources (TRGP) shares also soared as the natural gas distribution firm reported strong results and boosted its dividend on record Permian Basin volumes.  

Shares of McDonald’s (MCD) rose after the giant fast-food restaurant chain posted better-than-expected U.S. same-store sales.

Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 as the medical device maker cut its forecast because of soft demand in international markets.

Shares of Trex (TREX) plunged after the deck building materials manufacturer reported weaker-than-anticipated results and lowered its guidance on a slowdown in spending for home repairs and remodeling.

Pinterest (PINS) shares sank after the visual social media and search platform reported profit below forecasts and gave a weak holiday quarter outlook.

Oil futures were little changed, and gold prices climbed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note gained. The U.S. dollar was up on the euro and yen, but lost ground to the pound. Most major cryptocurrencies traded higher. 

• Trex Co.'s results and outlook disappoint as spending on housing materials slows.
• The maker of decking products said the repair and remodeling sector continued to face weaker market conditions, and it expects that to continue.
  

Trex Co. (TREX) shares sank to multiyear lows after the maker of deck-building materials posted worse-than-expected results and lowered its outlook, citing a slump in spending for housing projects.

While the company saw spending in the repair and remodeling sector improving, CEO Bryan Fairbanks said, "the second half of the season reflected the weaker market conditions that the industry has experienced in the past two years.” Trex expects “this trend to continue in the seasonally slower fourth quarter,” he said. 

Shares of Trex were recently off some 28%, though they're slightly off earlier lows.

A prolonged housing slowdown continues to weigh on home improvement companies, as Trex Co.'s results show. Demand for big-ticket remodeling projects has cooled in an environment of higher interest rates and tighter household budgets.

Trex reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.51, missing Visible Alpha forecasts by $0.06. Revenue gained 22.1% to $285.3 million, also short of estimates.

The company nowsees fourth-quarter sales of $140 million to $150 million, below its earlier estimates, and reported a full-year outlook of $1.15 billion to $1.16 billion. That’s basically the same as 2024, compared to its previous expectation of an increase of 5% to 7%.

Trex also cut its 2025 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance to 28.0% to 28.5% versus the earlier outlook of more than 31%.

With Thursday's 28% decline, shares of Trex slumped to their lowest level in more than six years. Read Investopedia's full daily markets roundup here.

• Novo Nordisk cut its outlook as it sees slowing demand for its GLP-1 weight loss and diabetes treatments.
• Third-quarter profit and revenue was short of analysts' estimates.

U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) fell after the drugmaker scaled back its outlook, citing disappointing demand for its GLP-1 weight loss and diabetes drugs as competition in the sector increases.

Novo Nordisk, the company behind Wegovy and Ozempic, posted third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of DK4.50 ($0.69), DK20 ($0.03) below the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. Revenue was up 5.1% to DK74.98 billion ($11.53 billion), also short of forecasts.

Novo Nordisk’s weaker results indicate mounting pressure in the weight-loss drug market that it once dominated. The maker of Ozempic and Wegovy is facing tougher competition, slower demand, and pricing pressures—and has now cut its full-year outlook for the fourth time in 2025.

Wegovy sales rose 18% to DK20.35 billion ($3.13 billion), below expectations. Ozempic sales added 3% to DK30.74 billion ($4.73 billion), better than anticipated. 

The company now sees full-year operating profit growth of 4% to 7%, and sales of 8% to 11%. The previous outlook was for operating profit to gain 4% to 20% and sales to advance 8% to 14%. It said the change “reflects lowered growth expectations for Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 treatments within diabetes and obesity.” It's the fourth time the company narrowed its guidance this year.

U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordisk have lost about 46% of their value this year. The shares were recently off about 4%. Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.

• Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, payroll provider ADP said, bouncing back after two straight months of losses.
  
• The job gains did little to change the picture painted by recent reports of a stalled-out job market.
• The lackluster job growth could encourage officials at the Fed to cut interest rates to prevent the slowdown from worsening.
  

With the government shutdown still delaying official data, private measures of the labor market show the job market is still drying up.

U.S. private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, payroll provider ADP said Wednesday. That was more than the 22,000 forecasters had expected, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The growth was a rebound after a loss of 29,000 jobs in September, but was slow by historic standards, far below the 221,000 jobs added in October 2024, for instance.

The slow job growth reinforced the impression created by recent reports that the job market is in a low-fire, low-hire mode where employers are reluctant to expand their workforces but equally reluctant to let existing workers go.

Employers have pulled back on hiring in recent months due to uncertainty about trade policy amid President Donald Trump's unpredictable campaign of raising tariffs on trading partners. Hiring may also be hindered by companies adopting artificial intelligence, the ripple effects of the government shutdown, and high borrowing costs from the Federal Reserve aimed at combating inflation.

Fed officials cut the central bank's benchmark interest rate in September and October to boost the job market, and may do so again in December if more reports like Wednesday's ADP figures come in. The Fed is tasked with a dual mandate from Congress to prevent high unemployment and keep inflation low, and Fed officials have become increasingly worried about the health of the labor market.

"You can blame the trade war, or a host of other factors—AI, earlier restrictive monetary policy, and the government shutdown—but it's pretty clear that the labor market remains soft," Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. "This could be the key that unlocks another Fed rate cut in December."