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JPMorgan is set to kick off a string of earnings report this week from big banks and other top financial firms.

After Friday’s big selloff as President Trump fired back at China’s tightening of rare earths export curbs with higher tariffs, investors will be watching closely for the latest trade policy developments.

An ongoing federal government shutdown may delay the release of several economic reports, but investors can look forward to a full slate of corporate earnings from big banks and mainstays in the semiconductor industry.

JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and American Express are on the list of major financial firms set to report this week, while reports from TSMC, Johnson & Johnson, and United Airlines will also be in focus.

Without a resolution to the budget dispute, the government shutdown will enter its third week, likely delaying the release of data on wholesale inflation, retail sales, housing starts, and jobless claims. Homebuilder confidence and small business optimism surveys are still scheduled, and several Federal Reserve speakers are expected to deliver remarks, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The bond market is closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday (observed in some places as Indigenous Peoples Day), while major stock exchanges are open. The Federal Reserve system, major financial institutions, and many federal, state, and local government offices will be closed on Monday.

Read to the bottom for our calendar of key events—and one more thing.

Big Banks, Chipmaking Stalwarts to Highlight Corporate Earnings This Week

This week is set to bring third-quarter updates from some of the world's biggest banks and top financial institutions, starting with Tuesday's release from JPMorgan Chase. The world’s largest bank by market capitalization has reported better-than-expected revenue in the year’s first two quarters, even as sales declined and net interest income came up short in its most recent report amid CEO Jamie Dimon’s warnings about "turbulence" in the economy.

Others expected to release quarterly financials Tuesday include Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and CitiGroup. Reports from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are due to follow Wednesday, while Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, and U.S. Bancorp are scheduled for Thursday. Earnings from American Express, Truist Financial, and State Street are slated for Friday.

The world's largest chip manufacturer, TSMC, is set to report its results Thursday, after growing its revenue by 40% in the first half of 2025 on strong sales of AI chips. Chipmaking equipment maker ASML looks to report Wednesday after the Dutch firm raised worries about future growth amid tariff pressures. 

Also this week, cloud computing giant Oracle will host a three-day AI World conference beginning on Monday, and customer relationship management software firm Salesforce's Dreamforce event starts Tuesday.

Shutdown Likely to Extend Data Release Blackout

With the federal government shutdown heading into its third week, the blackout on economic data releases is likely to continue. The Thursday reports on U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims and Friday’s update on housing starts could be delayed by the shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said last week it plans to release on Oct. 24 the Consumer Price Index inflation report for September that was originally scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak, coming as the central bank is set to release its Beige Book economic update on Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell is due to give an economic update on Tuesday, with remarks also expected this week from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

Some data releases are still expected, including a survey of small business optimism on Tuesday and report on homebuilder confidence on Thursday.

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This Week’s Calendar

Monday, Oct. 13

• Columbus Day holiday: bond markets, banks closed; stock markets open
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson
• Oracle (ORCL) AI World conference begins
• Key Earnings: Fastenal (FAST)

Tuesday, Oct. 14

• NFIB small business optimism index (September)
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Boston Fed President Susan Collins
• Salesforce (CRM) Dreamforce conference begins
• Key Earnings: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Ericsson (ERIC), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Albertsons (ACI)

Wednesday, Oct. 15

• Federal Reserve Beige Book
• More Data to Watch: Empire State manufacturing survey (October)
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
• Key Earnings: ASML (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), PNC Financial (PNC), United Airlines (UAL)

Thursday, Oct. 16

• Homebuilder confidence (October)
• Data Delayed by the Shutdown: U.S. retail sales (September), Producer Price Index (PPI) (September), Initial jobless claims (Week ending Oct. 11), Business inventories (August)
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Governor Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
• More Data to Watch: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (October)
• Key Earnings: TSMC (TSM), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), CSX Corp (CSX), Travelers (TRV)

Friday, Oct. 17

• Industrial production & capacity utilization (September)
• Data Delayed by the Shutdown: Housing starts (September), building permits (September), import price index (September)
• Key Earnings: American Express (AXP), Truist Financial (TFC), State Street (STT), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Regions Financial (RF)

One More Thing

Medicare open enrollment begins on Wednesday, Oct. 15, giving those covered by the federal health insurance program an opportunity to change their plans. Investopedia’s Jeanine Skowronski has more information on how to prepare for Medicare’s open enrollment period.

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A range of tastes and trends are expected to land in candy baskets this year.
Key Takeaways

• Candy is expected to account for about one-third of the $13 billion Americans are set to spend on Halloween this year.
• While chocolate remains the bedrock of Halloween, experts say tastes are shifting toward fruit flavors, sour candies, and the combination of sweet and spicy.
• Viral sensations like "Dubai chocolate" are proving to be more than just a flash in the pan, according to industry insiders.

October is here, which means prime-time baseball—and Halloween, the “Super Bowl” of candy sales.

Americans are expected to shell out more than $13 billion to celebrate Halloween this year, according to the National Retail Federation, with nearly $4 billion of that on candy. That makes it vitally important for confectioners like Mars Wrigley, one of the biggest candy, chocolate and gum makers in the world, which spent more than two years developing its 2025 lineup.

Timothy LeBel, president of sales with Mars Wrigley North America—he also holds the title of “Chief Halloween Officer”—told Investopedia the company will offer more than 90 products this fall as it seeks to capitalize on a busy season for an industry estimated to be worth more than $50 billion.

As the company, known for products like Snickers, 3 Musketeers and Milky Way bars, develops its menu, it considers shifting trends in consumer tastes and preferences, generational differences in how people enjoy treats, and emerging influences like the effect of GLP-1 medications on purchases of candy and other snacks.

Why This Matters to You

Shifts in tastes can happen slowly over years as people's preferences get updated and people search out new sensations. One of the places that's most evident is in candy, where industry experts say they see people seeking new textures and flavors—but also a taste for the classics.

Sometimes trends that lead to pullbacks in one direction create opportunity in another. GLP-1s, for example, can suppress appetites, but some users can also experience dry mouth or unpleasant breath, experts say. “Our gum business has benefited from that,” LeBel said.

Here are some trends Mars Wrigley and others are seeing in the sweets business right now.

Chocolate Still Rules, But Fruit-Flavored Sweets Are on the Rise

Four-fifths of Halloween candy shoppers plan to buy chocolate, LeBel said—but not only chocolate. 

“Chocolate is still the foundation of Halloween,” he said. “But what I would say is that whether it’s Millennials, Gen Z or Gen Alpha, you’re also seeing a shift in preference to more fruit-flavored candy.”

Younger consumers are adventurous with their taste buds, and fruity candy easily lends itself to experimentation, according to Miriam Aniel Oved, head of integrated marketing at consumer research firm Tastewise.

Dubai Chocolate Mania Persists

So-called "Dubai chocolate"—chocolate bars with a creamy pistachio filling, which has become a fast-growing niche of the U.S. candy market—is sticking around.

Interest in Middle Eastern flavors like saffron, rosewater and cardamom over the past 12 months is among the reasons sustaining interest in it, Oved said. That’s meant pistachio has moved from bars into lattes and other uses. Mars Wrigley offers Dubai-style products through its Galaxy brand. 

Pistachio, Oved said, "is having a huge moment."

Gummy Textures, Sour Flavors Are a Winning Combo

Chewy, gooey, squishy and sour candy is a home run with teens, tweens and young adults who want playful candy experiences. There’s “a lot of buzz around ‘contrast confectionery,’ or a mix of different textures and flavors,” Oved said. 

Multi-texture candy is very much in demand, LeBel said. “When your palate bites into a gummy candy, there could be a crunch texture waiting inside, or a liquid center, or it can be a ‘popped’ experience,” he said. 

Sour, according to LeBel, is the fastest-growing flavor in the fruity chewy category, LeBel said. Shapes can also affect texture; Mars Wrigley has introduced “Life Savers Gummies X’s and O’s,” which reshape the traditionally round candy and recall the game tic-tac-toe. 

Sweet and Spicy Is Still Going Strong

“Swicy,” the sweet and spicy flavor trend, landed in snack and beverage aisles nationwide last year. It isn’t going away. 

Consumer interest in “swicy” is growing, Oved said, adding that swicy is finding its way into both non-chocolate candy and chocolate products. Lately, food brands are experimenting with specific flavors of swicy, such as chili mango or gochujang, she said.

”You’re about to see [swicy] everywhere,” said LeBel, who said some of the company’s retail partners, when presented with a version of “Skittles Fuego,” asked that they be made even spicier. “We continued to play with the flavor for about a year before we launched it to give it the right balance of spicy and sweet,” he said.

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JPMorgan analysts believe Southwest Airlines stock is a good short bet.
Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan analysts this week suggested a long list of ideas for bets that some stocks will fall.
• The suggestions covered companies ranging from restaurants to airlines, dating apps and tech.

With stocks not far from their recent highs, are you looking to bet on which ones might fall? 

Some investors look to profit from share prices they consider elevated by making short bets, borrowing shares to sell that they then seek to repurchase when they’re less expensive, pocketing the difference.

Earlier this week, JPMorgan asked its analysts to pick their favorite short ideas headed into the start of the fourth quarter. They handed back a list of 27 stocks, which included those of a major airline and a burger chain. Here are summaries of a few of those picks. 

Why This Matters to Investors

Short-selling is a possible tactic for investors who think stocks are more likely to fall than rise. A recent collection of short ideas from analysts at JPMorgan shows that those ideas can be inspired by a range of companies—and reasons.

Southwest Airlines (LUV): The stock is down about 7% this year through Friday’s close, compared to the S&P 500's roughly 12% climb. 

The airline, JPMorgan wrote, is in the early innings of a transformative shift away from its core long-standing brand” and has issued “ambitious” fourth-quarter guidance. Demand trends are promising, the analysts wrote, but they were also concerned about the stock’s valuation. 

Visible Alpha’s mean price target, around $31, would suggest little change from Friday’s close. 

Shake Shack (SHAK): The burger chain’s shares have lost about a third of their value this year.

JPMorgan raised questions about high menu prices that could limit its growth opportunity, possibly shrinking both its addressable market and the frequency with which people visit.

Visible Alpha’s average price target, at $133, would suggest an over 50% gain from Friday’s close near $87. 

Bumble (BMBL): Shares of the digital dating company have fallen nearly 40% in 2025.

JP Morgan analysts worried about declines in the use of the Bumble app and the possibility that marketing expenditures will hurt margins.

The mean price target of analysts tracked by Visible Alpha is about $7, up $2 or 40% from Friday’s close. 

Rivian (RIVN): The EV maker’s stock is down close to 4% this year.

JPMorgan expects the recent expiration of federal EV tax credits to weigh on demand, with changes associated with President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” seen as hitting its ability to sell profitable regulatory credits to other automakers, pressing overall margins.

Visible Alpha's mean price target on Rivian's shares is around $14, a 9% rise from yesterday's close.

Other picks shared by the bank’s analysts included Krispy Kreme (DNUT), which it said was pressed by balance-sheet issues that would hamper its turnaround; insurance company Travelers (TRV), which it said was facing “overly optimistic” consensus estimates; Snapchat operator Snap (SNAP), which it said would struggle to compete for business with social platforms that use AI more effectively; and self-driving auto systems company Mobileye Global (MBLY), which it said had a “premium valuation” unsupported by its revenue growth expectations. 

Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Consumer staples marked the only sector in the S&P 500 to post gains Friday.
Key Takeaways

• A number of high-flying tech stocks tumbled Friday, Oct. 10, 2025, amid worries about worsening U.S.-China relations, while a snack and soft drink giant extended its post-earnings gains.
• Advanced Micro Devices and other semiconductor firms were among the S&P 500's biggest decliners.
• PepsiCo stock added to its climb in the wake of a strong earnings report driven by international growth.

High-flying tech stocks led the S&P 500 lower Friday, Oct. 10, 2025, amid worries about worsening U.S.-China relations. Meanwhile, a snack food and soda maker built on its momentum in the wake of an upbeat quarterly report.

Major U.S. equities indexes plunged after President Donald Trump threatened to hike tariffs on imports from China and suggested he may cancel his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in response to China's moves to curb rare earths exports. The S&P 500 slumped 2.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 3.6%. The Dow lost 1.9%. For more reporting from Investopedia on today's market moves, see here.

Chip design software firm Synopsys (SNPS), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Teradyne (TER), and other semiconductor-related stocks were among the S&P 500's biggest decliners. AI favorite Nvidia (NVDA) finished nearly 5% lower after climbing to a fresh intraday record ahead of Trump's comments.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) also dropped about 5% amid broad-based declines, with the tech sector taking the heaviest hit. Consumer staples marked the only sector in the S&P 500 to post gains.

PepsiCo (PEP) shares rose nearly 4% to secure the S&P 500's top performance on Friday. The stock added to its jump in the prior session after the snack and soft drink giant posted better-than-expected quarterly results and named a new chief financial officer. Growth in international markets helped drive Pepsi's strong performance, despite declining volumes in North America.

Shares of auto parts retailers clawed back some of the steep losses they suffered over the past week following a Chapter 11 bankruptcy by supplier First Brands. The collapse of the company behind a number of major brands for products like filters, brakes, and wipers could disrupt supply and pricing for the parts sellers. AutoZone (AZO) shares recovered 2.7% Friday after the company authorized the repurchase of an additional $1.5 billion worth in its stock. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) stock was up 2.4%.

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The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment announcement was thought to be derailed by the government shutdown. Now it's back on track.
KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Bureau of Labor Statistics employees are returning to work so it can release its September inflation report on Oct. 24.
• This will allow the Social Security Administration to calculate the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment before the Nov. 1 deadline.
• Although the government remains shut down, Social Security beneficiaries will soon know how much their checks will increase next year.

Security beneficiaries will get an idea about what next year's benefit checks will look like after all.

The federal government said it is bringing back some furloughed Bureau of Labor Statistics employees to release the September Consumer Price Index on Oct. 24. The Social Security Administration uses this key inflation data to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment to benefits.

What This Means for Beneficiaries

Beneficiaries, especially the nearly 22 million seniors whose sole source of income is Social Security benefits and who rely on the COLA announcements to budget for the next year, will receive some clarity soon, even though the shutdown continues.

The Social Security 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement typically comes in mid-October and is based on the BLS inflation reports from the third quarter. When the government shut down at the beginning of this month over debates about health care cuts, the BLS said it would “completely cease operations,” which includes releasing its reports.

The Social Security Administration, which continues to have the majority of its employees working so it can administer checks during the shutdown, has not said when it will release the 2026 COLA. However, the SSA is required to release the adjustment by Nov. 1.

Early estimates suggest that the 2026 COLA will be 2.7%, up from 2025’s 2.5% increase.

Frederic J. Brown / AFP via Getty Images

Frederic J. Brown / AFP via Getty Images
Key Takeaways

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics is putting out a key inflation report Oct. 24 despite a government shutdown that is delaying most government data.
• The Consumer Price Index report for September was originally scheduled to go out Oct. 15.
  
• The data will help the Social Security Administration determine its annual cost-of-living adjustment and officials at the Federal Reserve set interest rates.
  

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a key report on inflation for September despite an ongoing government shutdown that is delaying most of the statistics produced in Washington.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is planning to bring back some of its furloughed employees long enough to publish a report on the Consumer Price Index for September, the agency said in a statement Friday. The report, originally scheduled for Oct. 15, is now slated for Oct. 24.

The CPI report would be one of the very few pieces of economic data published by the government's statistical agencies. Most government data producers have been closed since Oct. 1 because of a standoff between Democratic and Republican lawmakers that has stopped many federal government services.

Why This Matters

Investors, businesses, and consumers are essentially flying blind without access to federal government data, making it difficult for them to plan for spending, hiring, or saving.

What The Data Will Say

Some forecasters expect the report to show prices continuing to rise, but at a slower pace than in August.

Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast that "core" prices, which exclude volatile prices for food and energy, rose 0.26% in September, down from 0.35% in August, according to a preliminary estimate. Goldman's forecast incorporates privately sourced data showing an increase in prices for new and used cars, a slowdown of rent inflation, and a decrease in airfares.

The data could help inform the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as the Fed's policy committee will have seen the report by the time it meets on Oct. 28 and 29. Fed officials are grappling with whether and how fast to lower the Fed's central interest rate.

The Fed cut its key interest rate in September, lowering borrowing costs on many short-term loans to boost the deteriorating job market, and is expected to do so again in October. However, high inflation could slow down or discourage further cuts.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a member of the central bank's policy committee, said the inflation report would help "a lot" in setting policy in October and urged the bureau to release jobs data it has already collected and did not publish due to the shutdown. The bureau's highly anticipated jobs report was due Oct. 3.

"Come on, give it to us, you don't have to hold it back," he said in an interview on CNBC on Friday.

Fed officials have expressed concern that tariffs are pushing up inflation at the same time as they are dragging down job creation, leaving the central bank with few good options as it pursues its dual mandate of keeping inflation low and employment high.

Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images

Earnings from big banks could give investors insights into the health of the economy in the absence of government data.
Key Takeaways

• U.S. banks' earnings announcements begin next week, and their results could help investors get a feel for how the economy is doing.
• Analysts expect banks remained financially strong in the most recent quarter, thanks in part to resilient consumers and businesses.
• Bank executives are optimistic, buoyed by strong stock market performance, steady consumer spending, and a rebound in IPOs and corporate dealmaking. However, analysts said that could change if the economy takes a turn.

With a government shutdown forcing a data blackout, the upcoming U.S. bank earnings season will let investors gauge the economy’s health.

Big banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America begin reporting their earnings next week. At least as of Sept. 30, banks were in solid shape and poised for more improvement in the last quarter of the year, analysts say. 

Their borrowers, whether credit card holders or large corporations, showed little sign of stress. Loan activity was improving, and ebullient markets were driving fees to the Wall Street operations of larger banks. President Donald Trump’s administration is loosening bank regulations, whether on tiny one-branch banks or megabanks.

“The group’s backdrop is about as strong as we could hope,” Scott Siefers, a bank analyst at Piper Sandler, wrote in a note to clients.

However, the optimism could fade if the economy takes a turn—an increasingly difficult scenario to gauge since the shutdown means the official September jobs report and other economic data haven’t been released.

Why Bank Earnings Matter

The economic health of banks can affect everything from credit card rates and mortgage availability to job stability and market confidence. When lending activity is high, it supports consumer spending, business growth, and investment returns.

Investors don’t seem to be too worried. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index returns are slightly outpacing those of the S&P 500. 

The industry is facing “great expectations” when it starts reporting earnings next week, UBS bank analyst Erika Najarian wrote in a note to clients, with one major question being which banks can deliver after the recent stock rally.

Will Bank CEOs Stay Positive?

If the economy does wobble, banks would suffer as borrowers struggle to repay their loans.

Bank CEOs have been mostly upbeat in recent weeks, however. They’ve cited continued spending from high-income earners, a boom in data center construction supporting the economy and improving corporate sentiment as the tariff picture clarifies.

“I'm optimistic that we're probably going to see an acceleration as we continue to head into 2026,” Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told Bloomberg Television this month, though he noted the job market is undoubtedly “a little bit softer” today.

Banks’ loan portfolios haven’t displayed major cracks this year. Banks only had to write off 0.60% of their loans in the second quarter, up slightly from their pre-pandemic averages, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Write-offs remain far below any recession-level numbers—in 2010, for example, that figure stood at more than 2% every quarter.

The U.S. consumer “remains very resilient,” and corporate credit health remains “terrific,” Bank of America’s chief financial officer, Alastair Borthwick, said at a Barclays conference last month. 

"Profitability is good. Cash flow is good,” Borthwick said. “We can see corporate America is performing pretty well.”

It’s an upbeat assessment that several other bank CEOs shared at the same conference, according to Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg. It is one reason why banks’ latest earnings results “should continue to exceed expectations,” he wrote in a research note.

He and other analysts expect little deterioration in banks’ portfolios in their upcoming releases. 

Late payments on credit card loans have shown consistent improvement, following a period of worsening two years ago when inflation and higher interest rates prompted some deterioration, he noted. Some pressures for loans to older office buildings tied to higher interest rates and shifts in remote work habits seem “well known” by now, he added. 

What Could Cause a Reversal in Optimism?

But a prolonged government shutdown could dampen the outlook, he wrote.

Though banks tend to offer temporary relief to affected customers, furloughed government workers may nonetheless cut back on spending, he wrote. Work stoppages at the Small Business Administration or the Department of Housing and Urban Development may also delay loan activity. 

A longer shutdown could also prompt temporary market volatility, Goldberg noted, potentially slowing one source of banks’ current catalysts. Wall Street banks are gaining more fees from helping arrange recent public offerings and corporate mergers. 

IPOs had their strongest quarter since the end of 2021, when low interest rates were fueling markets, according to the consulting firm EY. Large corporate mergers are also on the rise.

“There is real momentum in the dealmaking environment. I think you’re going to see an acceleration of that into 2026 for sure,” said Solomon, Goldman Sachs’ CEO, though he also noted he “wouldn’t be surprised” if stock markets took a turn in the next two years given their recent gains.

Are More Big-Ticket Bank Mergers Coming?

Increasingly, those mergers are now involving banks themselves. Bank mergers rose to a 4-year high last quarter, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, with 52 deals announced.

The industry has been consolidating for decades, given banks’ desire to cut costs and combine forces to invest in new technologies. But that activity slowed during the Biden administration, particularly among larger regional banks whose deals faced more scrutiny from Washington, D.C.

Now it seems that bigger bank deals are back. Last month, PNC Financial said it was buying Colorado-based regional FirstBank. A bigger deal came this week: Ohio-based regional lender Fifth Third Bank announced it was buying Dallas-based Comerica Bank. 

“The emerging question is whether other large regionals will feel compelled to respond with their own actions,” Piper Sandler’s Siefers wrote.

And with bank stocks hitting fresh highs, the anxiety among bank investors isn’t the loan growth outlook, the path of interest rates or potential troubles in banks’ portfolios, Siefers wrote. Instead, some investors are worried that a regional bank they own will pay too much to buy a competitor.

Fifth Third’s stock price has “held up well” since its announcement, he added, which suggests investors are comfortable with deals “as long as they are fundamentally attractive.”

Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

The IRS commonly adjusts the tax brackets every year in order to reflect inflation.
KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The IRS announced that the tax brackets for the 2026 tax year increased by about 2.3% to keep up with inflation and ensure that Americans pay the same proportion of taxes.
• The "One Big, Beautiful Bill" retroactively increased the standard deduction for the 2025 tax year. For the 2026 tax year, the increase is expected to be approximately 2.2%.
• Other tax credits, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Estate Tax Credit, have similarly increased to reflect inflation rates.
  

On Thursday, the IRS announced the new tax brackets for the 2026 tax year.

The tax bracket income levels for 2026 taxes, which are filed in 2027, have increased to reflect the inflation of wages. Other changes from the "One Big, Beautiful Bill," also known as OBBB, have been made to tax credits and deductions, some of which will save Americans money on their tax bill.

Why This Matters to You

Understanding the annual changes to tax brackets and deductions will help inform your decision-making around your household budget, investments, and other financial matters in the new year.

For 2026, tax brackets increased by a little less than 2.3%, which is smaller than the adjustment made last year. The yearly increases are intended to ensure Americans always pay the same proportion of taxes on their income. So, unless you get a raise of more than 2.3% in 2026, you won't be taxed at a higher rate.

The 2026 Tax Brackets Have Increased by About 2.3%Tax Rate2025 single or married filing separately2026 single or married filing separately2025 married, filing jointly2026 married, filing jointly37%$626,351 or more$640,601 or more$751,601 or more$768,701 or more35%$250,526-$626,350$256,226-$640,600$501,051-$751,600$512,451-$768,70032%$197,301-$250,525$201,776-$256,225$394,601-501,050$403,551-$512,45024%$103,351-$197,300$105,701-$201,775$206,701-$394,600$211,401-$403,55022%$48,476-$103,350$50,401-$105,700$96,951-$206,700$100,801-$211,40012%$11,926-$48,475$12,400-$50,400$23,851-$96,950$24,801-$100,80010%$11,925 or less$12,400 or less$23,850 or less$24,800 or less

The OBBB expands on President Donald Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and retroactively increases the standard deduction for 2025 taxes, which will be filed in April. The bill increases the 2025 deduction for single taxpayers and married individuals filing separately by $750, $1,125 for heads of households, and $1,500 for married couples filing jointly.

The standard deduction, which is used by those who do not itemize their deductions, is increasing by about 2.2% for the 2026 tax year.

The 2026 Standard Deduction Increased By About 2.2% from Last YearTax YearSingle or married filing separatelyMarried filing jointlyHeads of households2025$15,750$31,500$23,6252026$16,100$32,200$24,150

Some of the other tax items that have been adjusted for inflation and the OBBB:

• Earned Income Tax Credits: This credit lowers the tax bill for taxpayers with children whose income is below a certain threshold. For 2026, the maximum amount of credit that can be taken out increased by $185 to $8,231.
• Alternative Minimum Tax Exemption: For 2026, the exemption amount for single taxpayers rose by $2,000 to $90,100, and for married couples filing jointly, it rose by $3,200 to $140,200. However, the OBBB restricts who can utilize the exemption by lowering the income level at which it phases out.
• Estate Tax Credit: Taxpayers who receive assets or money from a descendant who dies in 2026 can exclude up to $15 million from their taxes, up by more than $1 million from 2025.
• Adoption Credits: Those who adopt a child in 2026 can claim up to $17,670 in adoption expenses, up by $390 from 2025.

Bridget Bennett / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Kalshi, which launched exclusively in the U.S. in 2021, announced this week that it is expanding to more than 140 countries.
Key Takeaways

• The valuations of prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have soared in recent months as the online betting platforms have expanded into new categories and jurisdictions.
• Their push into contracts tied to sporting events, which pits them against more-heavily regulated online sports betting operators, has been particularly lucrative.
• Bank of America analysts in a note earlier this week referred to Kalshi and Polymarket's sports contracts as "untaxed gambling."

Prediction markets are booming, and so are their valuations.

Kalshi in August closed a funding round that valued the prediction market platform at $5 billion, more than double the $2 billion valuation it disclosed in June. According to a spokesperson, Kalshi raised $300 million from backers including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Coinbase Ventures. News of the funding round was previously reported by The New York Times.

Why This Is Important

Online prediction markets have seen volumes and investor interest skyrocket this year as companies have expanded into new offerings and markets. Their soaring valuations underscore both the strength of their recent growth and Wall Street's willingness to bet big on emerging businesses.

Prediction markets have taken off this year as they’ve expanded their offerings and entered new jurisdictions. According to a spokesperson, Kalshi’s trading volume exceeded $1 billion in the week ending October 6, a huge jump from the $300 million reportedly booked last year. The company's share of global prediction market volume has grown from 3% a year ago to more than 60% in September, according to data provider Dune.

Kalshi, which launched exclusively in the U.S. in 2021, announced this week that it is expanding to more than 140 countries. And chief rival Polymarket last month received the go-ahead from federal regulators to relaunch in the U.S., according to CEO Shayne Coplan.

Sports betting has been a major driver of growth. Kalshi in January began offering contracts tied to major sporting events like the Super Bowl, and last month expanded its sports-related offerings with pre-made and custom parlays. Kalshi had its highest-volume day ever on September 14, the second Sunday of the 2025 NFL season, "highlighting the platform’s recent growth in the sports category," according to the company.

Prediction markets' rapid push into sports betting has been aided by minimal regulatory pushback. Online sports betting companies like DraftKings (DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment's (FLUT) FanDuel are subject to regulations that have not been applied to prediction markets, despite the similarity of their products.

"It's as if [the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992] had been repealed with no state level legislation, no oversight requirements, and no gaming taxes," Bank of America analysts wrote of prediction markets in a note earlier this week. "There are few businesses better than untaxed gambling," they added.

As a result, investors, like bettors, are piling into prediction markets. Polymarket earlier this week announced New York Stock Exchange parent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) would invest up to $2 billion. The deal values Polymarket, which made headlines last year when users accurately predicted the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, at $8 billion, eight times its valuation in August. 

Lauren Petracca / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Consumer sentiment was little changed in October even as worries over the labor market persisted.
Key Takeaways

• The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October inched down from September as respondents to the survey raised few worries about the ongoing government shutdown.
• However, worries about the labor market pushed the measure to its lowest since May.

The government may be shut down, but consumers hardly noticed in early October.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 55.0 in the preliminary October reading for the closely followed survey, a tick lower than the September final reading of 55.1. Still, it’s the lowest sentiment reading since May, when consumers reacted to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires expected a steeper drop in sentiment to 53.5.

Why This is Important for You

Consumer sentiment surveys can gauge consumer spending, employment levels, inflation and other factors that help determine the strength of the economy.

The survey, conducted through Monday, Oct. 6, showed little change from the prior month's results, even amid the start of a federal government shutdown. The survey indicated that consumer perceptions of current economic conditions improved slightly in October, while expectations for future economic conditions declined somewhat. 

“Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month,” said survey director Joanne Hsu. “Interviews reveal little evidence that the ongoing federal government shutdown has moved consumers’ views of the economy thus far.”

Job Worries Persist

The report showed that consumers in October still carried many of the same worries they had in September, especially those related to the jobs market. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that 60% of respondents to the survey expect unemployment to rise in the next year. 

“American consumers are gloomy and it’s easy to understand why: They are starting to see the impacts of tariffs on prices at the store and they are nervous about the job market,” Long wrote.

However, while labor market concerns persisted, consumers felt somewhat more optimistic about inflation, as year-ahead inflation expectations declined slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%