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Vital Statistics: How Under-The-Radar Economic Metrics Affect Your Finances

• The job-finding rate, a lesser-known statistic than the unemployment rate, has been deteriorating since 2022, a symptom of the “low-hire, low-fire” job market.
• Highly educated workers in the prime of their careers have experienced the steepest declines in job-finding rates compared to other groups.
• This unusual trend may signal something is fundamentally changing in how the labor market works, a researcher suggested.

You’ve probably heard that the low unemployment rate indicates the job market is remaining resilient to economic shocks from tariffs and the war in Iran. But a lesser-known statistic illuminates the more discouraging half of a labor market economists often describe as “low-hire, low-fire.”

The job-finding rate is a lesser-known economic statistic than the headline-grabbing unemployment rate. It measures the percentage of unemployed people who find work in a given month. In July, the job-finding rate was 24.2%, close to its 25-year average of 24%, but well below its recent peak of 32.7% in 2022 when workers were in high demand. Some economists consider the job-finding rate to be one of the “four horsemen” of the labor market, whose deterioration can signal trouble ahead for the broader economy.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco broke down the job-finding rate by demographic groups and analyzed it among people who were not in the job market to begin with. Research advisor Marianna Kudlyak found that the decline in the job-finding rate among the unemployed since 2023 was “unusual” compared to historic patterns, given that the economy has been overall stable during that time.

The downward trend of the job-finding rate confirms the economy is settling into a low-hire, low-fire groove in which it’s relatively difficult for unemployed people to find work.

The analysis found that the decline was most severe for highly educated workers in their prime working years. To Kudlyak, that suggests the job market is behaving strangely, and not how it usually does when it’s on the brink of a recession.

“The current decline from unemployment is concentrated among groups that typically have the highest job-finding rates: prime-age and college-educated workers,” she wrote. “They normally find jobs quickly, even in weaker labor markets. The drop in their job-finding rates is particularly surprising and suggests something other than a standard cyclical slowdown.”

If the four horsemen aren’t yet galloping towards a job apocalypse, then what’s going on? Kudlyak said there were several possibilities worth looking into.

“There may be several contributing factors for future research to consider, including immigration-driven changes, sector-specific slowdowns in technology and government contracting, policy uncertainty, or early signals of broader labor market deterioration.”

• Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate surged to $65 billion at the end of July, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025, Bloomberg reported.
• The AI startup is expected to go public as soon as next month, potentially at a higher valuation than SpaceX.

Anthropic’s sales have been on a tear. 

The AI startup’s annualized revenue run rate reached $65 billion at the end of July, Bloomberg reported yesterday, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025. That’s big growth, though it’s uncertain what it could mean for the company’s coming IPO, since the Financial Times recently reported that some investors expect that number to reach $100 billion this year. 

Whether that kind of growth suggests a healthy AI trade and supports the kind of valuations Anthropic and rival OpenAI—the world’s two most valuable private startups—hope to justify, remains to be seen. 

Anthropic is expected to go public as soon as next month, potentially at a valuation even higher than what Elon Musk managed for SpaceX (SPCX) in June. OpenAI has pushed its initial public offering off to next year as SpaceX shares have fallen below their open price since their mid-June debut. 

A string of high-profile departures at OpenAI lately has also added to concerns. Last week, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI’s annualized revenue run crossed $40 billion, roughly doubling from the end of 2025. 

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic responded to Investopedia’s requests for comment in time for publication. 

Episode 308 of the Invstopedia Express Podcast with Caelb Silver (Aug. 17, 2026)

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The classic economic indicators tell us that the economy is hanging in there despite tariffs and sticky inflation. The “Real Feel” of the economy paints a different picture as more Americans are being left behind and finding their version of the so-called “American Dream” out of reach. NBC News Chief Business Correspondent Christine Romans joins the show with her diagnosis and parenting advice for the future generation of investors.

Plus, the relentless bull keeps running on strong earnings and promises of future spending. But, creative financing and new lending products may be spiking the punch. What could go wrong?

• Strategy’s executive chairman Michael Saylor in a Q&A Monday said investors in his company should have a long time horizon.
• Those seeking a dividend, meanwhile, should consider the company’s preferred stock, not the common shares, he said.

Investors in Strategy got a reality check yesterday—from Michael Saylor himself.

During a Q&A with shareholders of Strategy (MSTR), one participant worried that the company’s at-the-market stock offerings would keep share prices low, since selling shares can have a dilutive effect on a stock. (The questioner said a $73,000 investment, made on behalf of his three children, was under water, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense, and wondered if the company might issue a dividend to stockholders “to do something right by them in the near term.”)

Indeed, the crypto winter that started in October has weighed on bitcoin and shares of Strategy, a bitcoin proxy of sorts. The price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency has been cut in half since it peaked above $126,000, and Strategy’s stock has fallen over 70% over the same time period. In those 10 months, the company has worked to build its cash reserves, rolling out a $21 billion share offering in March, selling stockpiled bitcoin, and buying back its “Stretch” (STRC) preferred shares.

Saylor said the investor should “buy one of the preferred stocks” if he wanted a dividend; one of them, “Stride” (STRD), pays an effective yield of 15%. Otherwise, Saylor said, shareholders need a time horizon of as long as 10 years.

“I feel your pain, but I think we have to be prepared to have difficult years,” Saylor said.

Bitcoin sometimes goes through long stretches when it falls, he said, but when it rises he expects Strategy stock to “outperform bitcoin.” Since Strategy first bought bitcoin in August 2020, its shares have gained almost 700%, compared to bitcoin’s 450% rise.

• Klarna cut its full-year forecasts for revenue, gross merchandise volume, and adjusted operating income.
• The buy-now-pay-later firm also announced its CFO and CMO will leave their roles early next year.

Klarna’s stock could be on track to lose a fifth of its value in a single session.

Shares of Klarna Group (KLAR) were down 21% in recent trading, after the Swedish fintech firm trimmed its full-year forecasts and announced changes in its leadership.

The buy-now-pay-later firm said it now sees full-year revenue of $4.08 billion to $4.16 billion, down from its prior forecast of $4.34 billion. It lowered its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) forecast to between $149 billion to $151 billion, from $155 billion. Its adjusted operating income (AOI) is seen coming in at $280 million to $300 million, with the midpoint below the previous $299 million.

The company’s weaker-than-expected guidance overshadowed quarterly results that topped analysts’ expectations. Klarna’s second-quarter earnings per share, revenue, and GMV results all came in ahead of Visible Alpha consensus estimates.

Klarna also announced “planned transitions” for CFO Niclas Neglén and CMO David Sandström. The firm said the moves will take effect early next year.

With Tuesday’s slide, Klarna shares have lost nearly half of their value since the year began.

• American Airlines will reintroduce seatback screens on its narrowbody planes, reversing a decade-long move away from them.
• The new seatback systems will feature 4K technology, Bluetooth audio, USB-C charging, and larger screen sizes, the company said.

If you’re a flier who likes seatback screens, good news: You may be seeing more of them in the skies before long.

American Airlines (AAL) on Tuesday said some planes—including both new and retrofitted ones in its narrowbody fleet, which is generally used for shorter flights—will get “state-of-the-art seatback screens at every seat.” More than 140 “long-haul” planes already have them, the company said. Some other airlines, including Delta (DAL) and United (UAL), also use them.

The move stands to unwind a decade-long shift away from seatback screens in favor of having passengers use their own devices in the air. American travelers may welcome the news.

“This is a huge reversal for the airline,” wrote Gary Leff of travel site View From the Wing. American “said at the time that nearly everyone had their own devices (phones) though of course kids didn’t, not every family had one per child, and watching shows on a phone isn’t the same experience. People also like to multitask!”

American, which in May said it would introduce SpaceX’s Starlink Wi-Fi early next year, said its new entertainment offerings will include “industry-leading screen sizes,” as well as USB-C fast charging ports, 4K technology, and Bluetooth audio connectivity.

“With high-speed Starlink connectivity and American’s portfolio of premium onboard offerings, the next-generation seatback experience will create a more personalized, connected travel experience,” the carrier said, adding full fleet installation is expected to be completed by early next decade.

American made $111 million in fiscal 2025 profit, below the $5.01 billion of Delta and the $3.35 billion of United. American also said it would increase the percentage of premium seats on its narrowbody fleet “in the coming years” to about 40% from the current 25%.

• Home Depot’s quarterly sales and profits exceeded Wall Street’s expectations.
• The retailer maintained its full-year outlook despite challenges from a sluggish housing market and rising costs.

Home Depot beat Wall Street estimates with its latest quarterly results and held its full-year outlook steady, amid what executives called a “frozen” housing market. 

Home Depot (HD) on Tuesday reported adjusted earnings of $4.92 per share on a 6% year-over-year rise in revenue to $47.86 billion in the second quarter. Both figures topped analysts’ projections compiled by Visible Alpha. Comparable sales grew by 1.7%, also ahead of estimates.

The retailer reaffirmed its full-year forecasts of a 2.5% to 4.5% rise in sales and adjusted EPS growth of up to 4%, as it grapples with a sluggish housing market and high costs. The company said its outlook includes benefits from the Trump administration’s tariff refunds, which are expected to partially offset higher-than-expected fuel and product costs.

CFO Richard McPhail told CNBC Tuesday that the company faces “frozen housing market” conditions, and that consumers have been “hesitant” about committing to expensive home improvement projects.

Home Depot has looked to grow its sales to professional contractors and consumers pursuing smaller DIY projects, as big-ticket purchases remain under pressure. The retailer on Tuesday announced the nationwide launch of an express delivery service, offering three hour delivery of thousands of products. Aptus Capital Advisors Head of Equity David Wagner called the move a “direct shot” at the fast delivery speeds of Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN), which could help Home Depot capture more market share.

The retailer is also navigating some changes in leadership, after Home Depot announced last week that CEO Ted Decker is taking a medical leave of absence. McPhail and senior executive vice president Ann-Marie Campbell will split the CEO’s duties until Decker returns.

Home Depot shares were up about 1% in recent trading, leaving the stock roughly flat for the year. 

• Baidu’s revenue and adjusted earnings fell short of analyst expectations in the second quarter.
• The company’s stock has dropped in 2026, also underperforming the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index.

U.S.-listed shares of Baidu are falling after the Chinese search and tech giant fell short of estimates in its latest quarterly results.

The shares were recently down 9% in Tuesday trading, touching year-to-date lows. Baidu stock has had a rough 2026, falling more than 35% and underperforming the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index of U.S.-listed Chinese companiesof which it is a component. (Both are in the red this year, while the S&P 500 has risen.)

Baidu (BIDU) said this morning that it recorded 31.3 billion Chinese yuan ($4.6 billion) in revenue in the second quarter, down 4% year-over-year and below what analysts were looking for. Adjusted earnings per American depositary share came in at 7.22 yuan ($1.06), well below the analyst consensus.

Baidu is working to transform itself from a tech company that runs China’s largest web search engine to an AI-focused firm offering cloud computing services and other AI products.

The Golden Dragon index was recently down nearly 1%. For Investopedia’s full coverage of today’s trading, click here.

News of the day for Aug. 18, 2026

Stocks are pointing to a lower open Tuesday with tech stocks looking set to pull back and investors growing concerned with affairs in the Middle East; a range of AI-related stocks, including chip and memory component manufacturers, are falling this morning; inflation fears and interest in the debt of big tech companies are driving Treasury yields to their highest point in years; Home Depot beat estimates in its second-quarter earnings report; and Baidu shares are falling after the Chinese tech giant’s second-quarter results fell short of forecasts.

Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock futures are pointing lower amid renewed fears that the Iran war isn’t likely to end soon. Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq are down 1% this morning, while those tracking the benchmark S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are down 0.4% and flat, respectively. The major indexes pulled back Monday as the U.S. and Iran passed a 60-day deadline for a deal to end the war set as part of a June ceasefire agreement. WTI crude oil futures are up less than 1% to about $84 a barrel, with reports suggesting another ship was attacked crossing the Strait of Hormuz early this morning. Gold futures are down slightly to $4,450 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield is climbing toward 4.75% from 4.73% late yesterday. Bitcoin is trading around $64,300 after rallying yesterday to regain most of last week’s losses.

Some AI stocks, including Sandisk (SNDK) and some of its memory and data storage rivals started the week strong yesterday, but the AI trade is pulling back Tuesday. Sandisk is down more than 4% after jumping nearly 9% yesterday. Fellow data storage firms Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate (STX) are also each down more than 5%. The slump is hitting other parts of the AI trade, with chipmaking giants Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), Micron (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Marvell (MRVL) all falling premarket. The AI trade has become volatile in recent weeks as investors have shown increasing levels of concern about the sustainability of the financing in the AI sector and the risks of a bubble that could pop, dragging markets down with it.

The seeming stalemate in the Middle East has investors increasingly betting that the war will keep inflation higher for longer. Some experts have said that while inflation fears are driving a rise in bond yields, debt offered by tech firms using it to raise money to buy AI hardware has created an attractive alternative to Treasurys. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading around 4.75% this morning, its highest point since January 2025, while the 30-year is near 5.34%, its highest level since mid-2007. (Bond yields rise as prices fall.) Recent inflation data for June and July showed price growth cooling somewhat, but upward pressure on oil prices has inflamed fears that inflation could remain an issue in the months to come, possibly lifting the odds of interest-rate hikes.

Home Depot (HD) shares are climbing premarket after the home improvement retail giant topped estimates in its second-quarter report. That could augur well for other retailers set to report later this week, including rival Lowe’s (LOW), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT). Home Depot said it earned an adjusted $4.92 per share on $47.86 billion in revenue, both numbers rising year-over-year and beating the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. Comparable sales grew by 1.7%, also above estimates. Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year forecasts, as CFO Richard McPhail told CNBC the company is operating in “frozen housing market conditions.” Home Depot shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.

U.S.-listed shares of Baidu (BIDU) are falling premarket after the Chinese search and tech giant fell short of estimates in its latest quarterly results. Baidu said this morning that it recorded 31.3 billion Chinese yuan ($4.6 billion) in revenue in the second quarter, down 4% year-over-year and below what analysts were looking for. Adjusted earnings per American depositary share came in at 7.22 yuan ($1.06), well below the analyst consensus. Baidu is working to transform itself from a tech company that runs China’s largest web search engine to an AI-focused firm offering cloud computing services and other AI products. Baidu’s U.S.-listed shares were down 7% recently.

• The U.S. is set to impose a 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian products starting Wednesday.
• Although the tariffs could have a relatively small impact in and of themselves, they could signal a new phase in Trump’s trade wars.

If your plans for this winter include playing ice hockey and drinking beer, your budget may be about to take another hit.

On Wednesday, the U.S. is expected to impose a 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian products, including sports equipment, alcohol, makeup, cement, and other goods, unless negotiators for the two countries reach a trade agreement before then. President Donald Trump said the new import taxes last month were in retaliation for actions taken by Canada in the trade war that has simmered between the two countries since Trump took office last year.

If they are put in place on schedule, the tariffs would form another brick in the trade barrier Trump has sought to rebuild since February, when the Supreme Court struck down many of the first wave of tariffs he imposed in 2025.

The latest round of tariffs would target an estimated 5% of imports from Canada, leaving many important products unscathed. However, it signals the Trump administration’s willingness implement tariffs despite the setback dealt by the Supreme Court in February.

The new tariffs use a different legal mechanism than the one the high court invalidated. To threaten tariffs against Canada, Trump dusted off a nearly century-old provision of the Hawley-Smoot tariff signed into law by President Herbert Hoover in 1930.

However, the future of the new import taxes is uncertain. In the past, the White House has extended deadlines in trade negotiations before the deadline. The new tariffs could also face legal challenges similar to those that have hindered his past efforts to impose import taxes. Still, trade experts said, even the threatened imposition of double-digit tariffs has implications for trade policy and the broader economy.

“Looking forward, we might see a multiplication of overhanging threats motivated by political and geopolitical views in the White House,” economists at Allianz, led by Ana Boata, head of economics research, wrote in a commentary.

The direct economic impact of the new tariffs would be relatively small because they would cover only 5% of the value of imports from Canada, economists at Allianz estimated. It could, however, prove to be the first of many such tariffs.

“While the new tariffs only apply to a narrow range of goods, the upshot is clear: as predicted, the White House is using an expansive interpretation of alternative legal authorities to replace tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in February,” Christopher Bangert-Drowns, a research associate at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a progressive think tank, wrote in a commentary.

The 50% tariff threat takes place as the U.S., Canada, and Mexico negotiate to extend the USMCA, the free trade agreement that currently allows a wide variety of products to cross borders tariff-free. The new tariff could serve as a bargaining chip in those talks, economists said.

The last round of tariffs had a significant impact on the U.S. economy, pushing up inflation by raising consumer prices and slowing job growth as employers curtailed expansion plans amid uncertainty about trade policy. A fresh wave of tariffs could have similar effects, economists said.

“This additional policy uncertainty, and the threat of substantial new import costs, will only further restrain business decision-making, slowing growth as firms hold off on hiring and investment,” Bangert-Drowns wrote.