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News of the day for July 27, 2026

The major indexes pulled back last week amid uncertainty around big tech’s AI spending plans.
Credit: Angela Weiss / AFP / Getty Images

Stock futures are sharply higher this morning after major indexes posted losses last week; oil prices are plunging after the U.S. and Iran each halted strikes over the weekend following two weeks of increased fighting; chip stocks are rebounding from Friday’s sell-off; earnings reports from Apple, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft headline a busy corporate calendar this week; and Nvidia could backstop hundreds of billions in financing for OpenAI to lease data center space. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Jump as Market Looks to Rebound from Last Week’s Losses

Stock futures are surging this morning amid a cooling in Middle East tensions, as investors prepare for a busy week of earnings reports. Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were recently up 0.8% and 1%, respectively, while futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.3%. The major indexes lost ground last week—it was the second straight week of losses for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, while the Dow is now on a three-week losing streak—as investors reacted to a flurry of earnings reports, most notably from major tech companies.

WTI crude oil futures were down 6% at around $84 per barrel this morning following news over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran have paused strikes after two weeks of intensified fighting. (more on that below) Gold futures were up 0.5% at $4,090 an ounce, while bitcoin traded at $65,000, up from a weekend low of about $63,700. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects interest rates on all sorts of loans, was at 4.65%, after jumping above 4.70% late last week, its highest level since early 2025.

Mediators Aim for Peace Talks as US and Iran Pause Strikes

The U.S. and Iran over the weekend paused plans for continued strikes against one another, and this morning The Associated Press reported that officials in the region have said that efforts are progressing well to get the sides back to the negotiating table. The report said that mediators including Qatar and Pakistan, who helped broker the last ceasefire agreement earlier this year, have made “significant” progress in some areas including managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The pause in strikes pushed oil prices to their lowest levels in a week, which weighed on shares prices of some big oil and gas companies this morning. Shares of Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP) were each down roughly 3% in recent premarket trading.

Chip Stocks Rebound After Friday’s Sell-Off

Shares of chipmakers are rising in premarket trading after pacing the decline in the Nasdaq to close out last week. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was up more than 2% in recent premarket trading, as Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO) and Intel (INTC) all gained ground. Intel shares plunged 8% on Friday despite an earnings report that blew past analysts’ expectations, underscoring how volatile trading in tech stocks has been amid worries about the sustainability of AI spending. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) was up 4% this morning, as Micron Technology (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) bounced back from steep losses on Friday.

What to Watch For This Week: Big Tech Earnings, Fed Decision

Earnings reports from major tech companies will be in focus again this week, as will the Federal Reserve’s meeting on interest rates. Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are each set to release their quarterly results on Wednesday, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are scheduled to report the following day. Shares of fellow Magnificent 7 members Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) tumbled last week after the companies released their reports, amid ongoing concerns about whether massive AI spending will pay off. Results are also expected this week from Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO), Boeing (BA), UPS (UPS), Ford (F), PayPal (PYPL), Arm Holdings (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Procter & Gamble (PG), among others. Meanwhile, the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting tomorrow, with an announcement on interest rates and a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh set for Wednesday afternoon.

Nvidia Could Backstop $250B In Data Center Lease Costs For OpenAI

Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI are in talks for the AI chipmaking giant to guarantee up to $250 billion in financing that would allow OpenAI to lease space in a federal government-backed data center site in Ohio, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Journal said Nvidia’s backing could help OpenAI secure funds it needs to lease the site, which is being built in partnership with the Japanese government and Softbank, a big investor in OpenAI, as part of a tariff-related trade deal. Such a deal would also serve as the latest example of circular financing in the AI sector, where chipmakers and their customers are involved in increasingly complex deals to support each other financially. Such deals have sparked concern among investors worried about an AI bubble. Nvidia shares were up less than 1% premarket.

Investors will be eager to hear about AI investment plans from the mega-cap tech companies reporting this week.
Credit: Jose Sarmento Matos / Bloomberg / Getty Images

America’s AI buildout will be in the spotlight this week, with some of the world’s biggest tech companies due to hand in their latest results and Federal Reserve officials expected to take up the topic when they meet.

A number of Fed officials have suggested that spending on AI infrastructure could be a more persistent cause of inflation than energy shocks stemming from the war with Iran. The Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets monetary policy, is likely to discuss AI and other factors influencing inflation when it meets Tuesday and Wednesday. The central bank is unlikely to adjust interest rates this week, but rate hikes may be coming later in the year, some Fed watchers say. An update on the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is set to come Thursday, along with gross domestic product data.

What Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Meta Platforms have to say about their AI spending may be of more interest than the numbers they hand in this week. Last week, Alphabet handily beat expectations, but its stock sank after the parent company of Google and YouTube raised its projected expenditures on AI infrastructure. Tech companies are selling stock and using debt to finance the construction and operation of AI data centers, leaving investors concerned about whether these investments will pay off. 

Investors will listen closely for updates on the Magnificent 7 members’ efforts to monetize AI. Meta, which reports on Wednesday, is reportedly looking to launch a cloud computing business that may sell the social media giant’s excess compute capacity or access to AI models. Amazon, which is scheduled to report on Thursday, is charging customers more to rent hardware needed to train and run AI models.

The tech giants’ capital expenditures also have implications for chip, memory and data storage stocks, which have recently lost momentum, but have been some of the best performers in the stock market this year. A number of companies that supply AI hardware are slated to report too, including Seagate Technology, Qualcomm and Arm Holdings.

Market Recap

The major stock indexes finished Friday’s session mixed as oil prices pulled back following signs that Pakistan was pushing for new U.S.-Iran peace talks. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and benchmark S&P 500 rose 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.6% as chip stocks came under pressure. The indexes still posted losses for the week, marking the second consecutive week that all three fell. Global benchmark Brent crude futures retreated 4% to around $96.73 a barrel, a day after crossing the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time since May. (Read our coverage of Friday’s market action here.)

This Week’s Top Events

Here’s a look at the top events this week. TradingView publishes a more detailed calendar, but clicking the link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Tuesday, July 28: PayPal (PYPL) is scheduled to host a conference call on its second-quarter results at 8 a.m. ET, with the figures expected before then. Company shares shot up when news broke earlier this month that Stripe, another payment processor, was interested in acquiring PayPal. 
• Tuesday: The Conference Board, an economic research think tank, plans to update its Consumer Confidence Index at 10 a.m. ET. Sentiment crept up last month, the Conference Board said, but the public mood is still near historic lows.
• Tuesday: Visa (V) is set to publish its fiscal third-quarter results after the closing bell and host a live audio webcast at 5 p.m. ET. MasterCard (MA) reports on Thursday. Credit card stocks tumbled when the president proposed a 10% cap on interest rates in January. They’ve since regained ground, and could climb as consumers embrace AI shopping tools.
• Tuesday: Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) is slated to publish its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes and hold a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. The data storage company raised its outlook in spring.
• Wednesday, July 29: The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to share its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh holding a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The committee is expected to hold the fed funds rate steady, though future increase may be on the table. (Raising the rate, which affects borrowing costs, is the central bank’s key tool for combating inflation.) The Fed will get a fresh look at inflation when the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is updated on Thursday, along with gross domestic product data for the second quarter.
• Wednesday: Starbucks (SBUX) is slated to release its fiscal third-quarter results after the closing bell and host a conference call at 4:15 pm ET. Company shares have climbed more than 20% so far this year, with the coffee shop chain saying its turnaround campaign is driving traffic. Other restaurant chains slated to report this week include: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and Yum! Brands (YUM), the parent company of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell.
• Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, is set to release second-quarter results after the market closes, and host a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Meta had a tough first half of the year, amid skepticism around its investments in AI and government scrutiny. Still, investors have shown some excitement around Meta making its own AI chips and charging customers to use its latest AI model.
• Wednesday: Qualcomm (QCOM) is set to publish its fiscal third-quarter results after the trading session ends, and host a conference call at 4:45 p.m. ET. The chipmaker struck a deal with Meta and is focusing on products for data centers as it faces sluggish demand for smartphone-specific chips.
• Wednesday: Arm Holdings (ARM) is slated to publish its fiscal first-quarter results after the market closes, and host a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. The chip designer topped expectations last quarter. Arm is also moving into making hardware for AI data centers amid weakness in the smartphone market, and planning to sell its own chips. Lam Research Corp (LRCX), which makes chipmaking equipment, is also slated to discuss its results Wednesday evening.
• Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT) is scheduled to share its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the closing bell and hold a conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET. Microsoft posted better-than-expected results last quarter, but company shares slid. Investors have been wary of many software stocks amid worries about AI disruption.
• Thursday, July 30: Amazon (AMZN) is scheduled to host a webcast on its second-quarter results at 5 p.m. ET., with the quarterly numbers expected shortly before then. The tech giant handed in better-than-expected results last quarter, but its guidance disappointed investors. Amazon recently saw strong Prime Day sales and raised its prices for leasing hardware needed to train and run AI models.
• Thursday: Apple (AAPL) is set to hold a conference call on its fiscal third-quarter results at 5 p.m. ET, with the results expected before then. The company beat expectations last quarter and shared an upbeat outlook, saying that iPhone 17s were proving popular with consumers. The shares hit record highs earlier this month amid excitement over forthcoming devices and Apple potentially buying an AI chip company.

More Investopedia Reads

The group behind the S&P 500 launched a digital assets index that excludes bitcoin, Crystal Kim reports. Some experts are warning of a potential slowdown in earnings growth later this year, with rising oil prices threatening to squeeze profit margins, Colin Laidley writes. And Americans are starting more businesses, but hiring fewer workers, thanks in part to AI.

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Rising Oil Prices Threaten to Squeeze Corporate Profits

Threats to the stock market’s earnings engine are becoming more apparent.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan analysts warned macroeconomic data points to a potential slowdown in earnings growth later this year; rising oil prices are also threatening to squeeze profit margins.
• With stock multiples pressured by rising inflation and bond yields, analysts say earnings growth will be the main driver of stock returns this year.

The 2026 earnings bonanza is at risk of being cut short, according to JPMorgan. 

“Earnings upgrades are plentiful, but the trend in revisions suggests the fuel may be running low,” wrote analysts led by Khuram Chaudry in a note on Thursday. Earnings expectations tend to move in tandem with stock prices, but the opposite has happened in recent weeks; earnings forecasts moved higher while the S&P 500 slipped. The divergence could be a warning that the strong profit growth booked in the first half of this year is fizzling out.

Two macroeconomic data points may signal an earnings slowdown ahead. The spread between the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index—that is, the difference between the prices businesses pay and the prices consumers pay—is positively correlated with both sales and earnings revisions, but that spread has narrowed in recent months. If that trend continues, “the risk is that further rises in both EPS and Sales forecasts may be limited,” the analysts wrote.

Why This Is Important

Stock prices are basically a byproduct of two variables: earnings expectations and how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of future earnings. With bond yields on the rise, the latter is dropping, meaning investors need profit expectations to increase for share prices to keep rising.

Analysts are also concerned about the U.S. ISM order-to-inventories ratio, which tends to be a leading indicator of profit expectations. The reason is simple: orders outpace inventories when there’s more demand than supply, and vice versa. The ratio has declined for the past three months, echoing the narrowing inflation spread and suggesting “the upward march in Sales/EPS revisions could soon slow.”

A slowdown in earnings growth would be bad news for equity markets. Wall Street analysts are expecting double-digit earnings growth to be the primary driver of stock gains through the end of the year. Heading into the second half, they predicted rising bond yields would keep a lid on multiples, but that stocks could still rise alongside profits. If earnings estimates decline in the coming weeks, stock prices may be in for a painful reset considering how high expectations are. 

Oil prices are one of the largest risks to earnings growth later this year. Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, traded above $100 a barrel for the first time since late May on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East ratcheted up. Iran-backed Houthi’s in Yemen attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea earlier this week, threatening to block traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb, one of the few alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz for seaborne Middle East oil exports. 

“Investors need to be at least somewhat worried that oil/gasoline prices will both weaken consumers and the economy while also complicating life for central banks,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 

Goldman Sachs analysts in a note earlier this week predicted oil prices will hold onto their recent gains through August before declining to about $80 a barrel, “assuming de-escalation by Q4,” but they acknowledge risks to the upside are increasing. They warned sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices up to $120 a barrel by the end of the year, and even higher if the Bab al-Mandeb remains disrupted. 

Higher oil prices threaten to squeeze corporate profit margins at the same time that they dampen revenue growth by forcing consumers to spend more of their money on gas.

“Investors should pay close attention to corporate earnings guidance over the next several weeks, as management teams often signal rising input costs before they become evident in reported results,” said Scott Martin, a partner at Kingsview Wealth Management. He says companies with the greatest exposure to oil prices, including airlines, transportation firms, and industrial manufacturers, are the most vulnerable to an earnings reset, as are businesses with thin margins or limited ability to pass higher costs onto consumers.

Intel Shares Drop Despite Strong AI-Fueled Earnings

Memory chipmakers Micron and Sandisk were some of the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Friday
Credit: Daniel Ceng / Anadolu / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Several semiconductor stocks lost ground Friday, reversing gains earlier in the week when big chip buyers pledged to spend more on AI.
• Many chip stocks have fallen from their highs in recent weeks amid a broader pullback in the AI trade.

Semiconductor stocks are resuming their recent slide.

Several semiconductor stocks lost ground Friday, reversing gains earlier in the week when big chip buyers Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) said they planned to invest heavily in AI. The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) dropped over 4%, as Broadcom (AVGO) and TSMC (TSM) fell about 3% and Intel (INTC) tumbled nearly 8% despite reporting quarterly results that blew past expectations on surging AI-related demand.

Shares of memory favorites Micron Technology (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) were some of the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Friday, with shares down 11% and 7%, respectively, on a day when the broader index was little changed and finished 0.1% higher. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) plunged 9%.

Why This Matters to Investors

Friday’s slump could underscore weakening sentiment surrounding some of this year’s biggest AI beneficiaries amid worries about the sustainability of spending in the sector.

The moves could threaten to extend what’s been a tough few weeks for the sector amid a broader pullback in the AI trade, with the PHLX Semiconductor index’s recent slide leaving it nearly 20% off its June highs.

Gabelli Funds portfolio manager John Belton told CNBC in a televised interview Friday that the “reversion trade” pressuring some of this year’s best-performing stocks could underscore a “risk-off attitude” among investors, but that a string of strong earnings reports recently—including Intel’s—don’t justify Friday’s selloff.

In emailed comments, Belton suggested investors may have been caught off guard by renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising Treasury yields, which tend to weigh on growth stocks as borrowing becomes more expensive. With fundamentals “potentially getting even stronger in the coming quarters,” Belton said he “would not be surprising to see a bit of a shift in sentiment” back in favor of AI stocks.

Even with Friday’s decline, Sandisk and Micron remain among the S&P 500’s strongest performers this year, with shares up some 500% and 200%, respectively for 2026. Intel shares have surged 150%.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.

After the Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s April 2025 tariffs, the administration has looked to other federal laws to impose others.
Credit: Kent Nishimura / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. imposed new tariffs on goods from 60 economies, citing forced labor concerns.
• Average U.S. tariff rates are projected to rise slightly, affecting Americans’ budgets and trade.
• Exemptions and exclusions reduce the impact, but some countries face higher penalties.

The Trump administration has quickly rebuilt the wall of tariffs the Supreme Court knocked down in February—but consumers might not notice much difference.

New U.S. tariffs on goods from 60 economies took effect at 12:01 a.m. Friday, aimed at trading partners the administration says refuse to block imports made with forced labor. These economies are the source of more than 99% of American imports. The tariffs went ahead just as President Donald Trump’s temporary 10% global surcharge expired after 150 days, as required by law.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) imposed them under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing trading partners’ supposed failure to ban imports made with forced labor. Section 301 has survived prior court challenges, which is why the administration reached for it after February’s ruling.

Why This Matters to You

Under the Trump administration, higher import taxes have become a fixed part of the prices Americans pay for many goods. While the statute authorizing them keeps changing, the amount added to the price of goods from overseas has remained relatively steady.

The order sets 12.5% on 38 economies, among them China, Brazil, Russia and Vietnam. Another 17, including Canada and Mexico, pay 10% for having banned forced-labor imports or committed to it in a trade deal.

For five others—the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan—the duty tops up at 10% or 12.5%, rather than stacking on top. That accords with previous deals the administration had with leaders of these economies.

The tariffs come with exemptions that mirror administration priorities: oil and gas, fertilizer, some foodstuffs, aircraft parts, critical minerals and anything already carrying Section 232 duties on autos, steel, aluminum or copper.

It’s unlikely any Americans will experience sticker shock over the new tariffs.

The Budget Lab at Yale put the average statutory U.S. tariff rate at 12.1% as of July 21, days before the handoff. With the new duties running, Yale projects 12.8% by year-end.

Had the Section 122 tariffs lapsed without further changes, the average rate would have fallen to 9.8%, and tariffs would have cost the average household about $550 a year. Under the Section 301 path, a Budget Lab analysis Tuesday put that closer to $1,100.

Two changes since Yale ran those figures suggest the tab Americans pay could be lower. The USTR added 471 products to the exclusion list in the final order, and six economies won the 10% rate by banning forced-labor imports after the administration announced its findings in June.

Goods from two countries face far higher rates. Last week, the administration hit Brazil with a separate 25% import tax under Section 301 tariff over unrelated trade practices. And Canada’s 10% is the smaller of its problems: a 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian goods is set to take effect in August.

A second Section 301 investigation into excess manufacturing capacity is still open against 16 partners, including the European Union and China.

The USTR says the duties will push governments to police forced labor themselves. Vietnam issued a decree this week doing exactly that—and drew the top 12.5% rate anyway.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average enters Friday’s session on track to finish lower for the third straight week.
Credit: Angela Weiss / AFP / Getty Images

Stock futures are higher this morning as investors look to recover from yesterday’s punishing sell-off sparked by AI spending fears and soaring oil prices; Intel stock rose after the chipmaker’s earnings blew past estimates; shares of SpaceX fell after it delayed a test flight of its next-generation Starship for the second time in a week; mega-cap tech stocks stabilized after suffering one of their worst sell-offs in over a year; shares of American Express slid after the credit card provider’s mixed quarterly earnings report. Here’s what you need to know today. 

Stock Futures Creep Higher as Oil Prices Cool

Stock futures are inching higher on Friday as investors look to put Thursday’s rout in the rear view mirror. Futures contracts tied to the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average were recently up 0.4%, while benchmark S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was poised to open fractionally higher. The major indexes tumbled yesterday as Brent crude oil prices closed above $100 for the first time since May as tensions ratcheted up in the Middle East. Oil retreated on Friday morning, with Brent sliding nearly 3% to less than $98 a barrel. Gold futures were up slightly at $4,055 an ounce, and Bitcoin ticked higher to $65,000. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.69% after hitting its highest level of President Trump’s second term yesterday.

Intel Stock Jumps as AI Spending Drives Earnings Beats

Shares of Intel (INTC) rose 3% after the chipmaker topped estimates with its second-quarter earnings and reported its fastest revenue growth in 15 years. Intel on Thursday afternoon reported adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share, nearly double analyst estimates. Sales grew 25%, their fastest pace since 2011, to $16.1 billion, exceeding estimates by nearly $2 billion. Booming demand for AI chips has boosted sales at the once-troubled chipmaker this year, while support from the Trump Administration has helped revive investor confidence in the stock. Despite hitting a rough patch in July, shares were up 170% year-to-date heading into Thursday’s report.

SpaceX Dips After Test Flight Delay

SpaceX (SPCX) stock continued its post-IPO slide, declining 1% in premarket trading on Friday after it delayed the thirteenth test flight of its Starship rocket for the second time in a week. The test flight was originally scheduled for Thursday, July 17, but it was delayed a week by an engine problem. The rescheduled test was pushed back a day due to unfavorable weather conditions. After soaring in the days following its record-breaking IPO last month, SpaceX stock has spiraled back down to earth in the past month. Shares are poised to open Friday nearly 50% below their record high set a few days after the IPO.

Magnificent Seven Find Their Footing After $900 Billion Rout

Mega-cap tech stocks stabilized after suffering one of their worst days in more than a year on Thursday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) were both up 1% in early trading, while Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) each rose about 0.5%. Alphabet and its hyperscaler peers tumbled on Thursday after the Google-parent’s capital expenditures guidance roused Wall Street’s perennial concerns about AI spending. Tesla plummeted 15% yesterday after its disappointing earnings report. Cumulatively, the Magnificent Seven lost almost $900 billion in market value on Thursday, their worst day since last April’s tariff turmoil. 

American Express Slips After Mixed Q2 Report

Shares of American Express (AXP) slid more than 3% after the credit card provider reported mixed second-quarter results. The company posted higher-than-expected earnings of $4.53 per share, while revenue grew 10% to $19.64 billion, a little shy of Wall Street’s estimates. Cardholder spending increased 9% last quarter, a sign consumers—especially the higher-income consumers who make up Amex’s core customer base—continued to spend despite resurgent inflation and economic uncertainty. Amex raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 10% from a range of between 9% and 10%. Amex shares were down 8% since the start of the year heading into Friday morning’s report. 

Fed Watchers Are ‘More Tenative Than Usual’ Analysts Say

Kevin Warsh has refused to give forward guidance in the early days of his tenure as Fed Chair.
Credit: Eric Lee / Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, but uncertainty remains about future hikes.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced market guidance increases the potential for surprises at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
• Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, but recent declines and energy price risks could influence future rate decisions.

As markets gear up for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, the big question is whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may signal, even if indirectly, that interest rate hikes are coming later this year.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep rates unchanged when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. But at least a couple of Fed officials are advocating for higher interest rates, and some investors see a small chance of a surprise hike.

Warsh may not give much clarity at his 2:30 p.m. ET news conference on Wednesday, since he disagrees with the Fed’s past habit of guiding markets on next steps.

Even so, markets will try to gauge whether the Fed may stay patient all year and let inflation cool off on its own—or fight inflation by raising rates, even if next week is too early.

“We continue to see a prolonged hold as the most likely path, though it would not take much for the FOMC in coming months to decide to tighten policy instead,” former Fed Governor Larry Meyer, the chairman at Monetary Policy Analytics, wrote in a note to clients.

Rate Hike Surprise?

The market is “more tentative than usual about the outcome of the meeting,” Meyer noted, raising the possibility of an unexpected hike on Wednesday.

Under Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell, the outcome of FOMC meetings was baked into markets days before, with minuscule chances of surprises. But at one point this week, traders saw a 38% chance that the Fed would opt for a surprise hike, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which uses futures markets to determine Fed probabilities.

The uncertainty is partly because Warsh has scaled back guidance, an approach that “implies greater surprise potential at any given FOMC meeting,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

That doesn’t mean a surprise is coming. Warsh is unlikely to want to “roil the markets up at his second meeting,” Kevin Nicholson, global fixed income co-chief investment officer at RiverFront Investment Group, told Investopedia.

The Fed also got “a little bit of cover” last week, Nicholson said, with lower gasoline prices bringing inflation to an annual rate of 3.5% in June. That’s still above the Fed’s 2% target but below May’s 4.2% pace.

Renewed hostilities in the Iran war raise the risk of an energy price rebound, Nicholson said. But if tensions cool off again soon, inflation may keep declining and make any Fed hiking seem premature, he argued.

“I think that they’re going to be very pragmatic and wait as long as they can before they begin any series of hikes,” Nicholson said.

The Hawkish Case

It’s a debate that Fed officials had out in public in recent weeks—and it could prompt a couple of dissenting votes if the Fed keeps rates flat.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has called for “modestly higher interest rates,” arguing that June’s inflation decline may prove fleeting and that inflation has been above 2% for years.

“Inflation has been too high, for too long, and does not appear to be on track all the way back to 2%,” she said. “And the inflation risks are to the upside.”

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, meanwhile, said recently that “persistently high inflation” is pressuring businesses and households alike—and appears to be broad-based rather than only on specific goods.

Meyer, of Monetary Policy Analytics, expects Logan and Hammack to dissent if the Fed keeps rates flat on Wednesday.

Some analysts expect the FOMC to be swayed toward hiking this year.

James Egelhof, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, expects the Fed to hold off on rate hikes until December. But there’s a risk of the Fed “tacitly signaling that a hike is on the table for September,” he wrote.

“While our base case view is that policymakers keep their cards close to the vest, we see a risk that they signal action may soon be necessary to address elevated and persistent inflation,” he wrote.

The Dovish Case

But at least for now, some key FOMC officials appear to be in no rush to take action—even though they signaled clear concern over inflation risks.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said this month the Fed should reconsider its rate policy if inflation “does not start to cool down soon.” But he seemed content to leave rates unchanged in July, saying that “fortunately, our current policy stance leaves us well positioned to respond to economic developments.”

New York Fed President John Williams struck a similar tone in a recent speech.

“With inflation running high, it is imperative that we restore it to the Federal Reserve’s 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis,” Williams said. “The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to do that.”

The Iran war’s continuation could “put renewed pressure on the FOMC” by slowing inflation’s retreat, wrote Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Even so, another energy shock could slow consumer spending, Allen wrote, all without the tax refund boost that helped households cushion higher gas prices earlier this year. Slower growth could pressure the “already subdued labor market,” he wrote, lessening the case for Fed hikes.

“We think that renewed signs of deterioration in the labor market in the coming months, and limited evidence that price pressures due to the conflict are becoming embedded, will convince the Fed to keep policy unchanged over the rest of this year,” Allen wrote.

Google parent Alphabet said that the bulk of its SpaceX stock holding is subject to “short-term restrictions on the ability to sell.”
Credit: Photographer: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Alphabet disclosed in its earnings report that it had roughly $94.1 billion worth of SpaceX stock at the end of the second quarter.
• Tesla reported it held about $3 billion worth of SpaceX shares; Nvidia and Cisco are also likely shareholders.

SpaceX’s list of shareholders includes a who’s who of big tech companies.

Google parent company Alphabet (GOOG) disclosed that it had a SpaceX (SPCX) stake worth about $94.1 billion as of the end of June, according to its second-quarter earnings report. Based on SpaceX’s market cap at the end of the second quarter, or $2.2 trillion, Alphabet’s investment represents about 4%.

Tesla (TSLA) also disclosed a stake in SpaceX, albeit a more modest one worth $3 billion, per its second-quarter earnings report. Nvidia (NVDA) and Cisco (CSCO), are also likely shareholders given their early investment in xAI, which merged with SpaceX in February.

Why This Matters to You

Ordinary investors likely have a position in SpaceX in their retirement portfolios because the stock was added to major indexes and the funds that track them.

Alphabet disclosed that it had two tranches of SpaceX shares, with $80 billion worth subject to “short-term restrictions on the ability to sell,” according to the company. The rest, or some $14.1 billion is restricted for trading through the end of September 2027, filings show.

The tech companies’ respective stakes in SpaceX are likely a touch lighter given the stock’s recent decline. Shares closed Thursday at around $118, almost 13% below its IPO price of $135—a boon for some investors who bet that the stock would decline.

Early investor status, however, does put the spotlight on the coming wave of lock-up expirations that could free them up to trade their shares. The first of a series of staggered releases is set to occur on August 6, two days after SpaceX reports earnings for the first time as a public company.

Chipmaker Reports Strongest Revenue Growth in More Than 15 Years

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said “AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute”
Credit: Cheng Yu-Chen / AFP / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Intel shares surged after the chipmaker posted better-than-expected second-quarter results driven by booming AI demand.
• The company also provided a revenue outlook for the current quarter that topped Wall Street estimates, and said it would increase its capital expenditures.

Intel’s stock is soaring after another stronger-than-expected quarter.

Shares of Intel (INTC) were up 4% in recent premarket trading after the company posted earnings that blew past analysts’ estimates. Late Thursday, Intel reported adjusted earnings per share of 42 cents on revenue that jumped 15% year-over-year to $16.1 billion, well above the adjusted EPS of 22 cents on revenue of $14.43 billion analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha called for.

The company said it expects third-quarter revenue of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, and EPS of 38 cents, which are both well above the analyst consensus.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took over the helm of the struggling chipmaker in March of 2025, said Intel recorded its strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years, thanks to strong demand for its AI hardware.

“AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute, and as we continue to execute, Intel is well-positioned to capture sustainable growth across our CPU franchise, ASICs, advanced packaging and vast wafer foundry network,” Tan said in a release.

Why This Matters to Investors

The strong results could reinforce confidence in Intel’s turnaround and reinvigorate enthusiasm for its stock, which has pulled back from last month’s highs.

CFO David Zinsner told investors during the company’s earnings call that Intel’s AI-driven business grew more than 70% and accounted for approximately 70% of revenue. The CFO also said the company is “meaningfully increasing” its investments in equipment and space to meet demand, which continues to outpace supply. Earlier in the year, the CFO had warned of supply pressures as the company contends with industry-wide shortages of certain components.

Intel said it now expects capital expenditures this year could exceed $20 billion, up from $18 billion previously.

Though shares of Intel have pulled back from last month’s highs in recent weeks, the stock remains one of the best-performing in the S&P 500 for the year after a flurry of high-profile agreements and better-than-expected results. Shares of Intel were up around 170% for 2026 through Thursday’s close.

Credit: Vincent Alban / Bloomberg via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are driving up oil prices and bond yields, increasing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
• Higher bond yields are raising mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching its highest level since last August.

The rekindling of the Iran war has the bond market worried about inflation again, driving up borrowing costs for homebuyers and businesses alike.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.58% this week, its highest level since last August, according to Freddie Mac. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield—a key input into mortgage rates and business borrowing costs—also soared to its highest level this year and breached 4.7% in mid-afternoon trading.

The sharp rise in yields follows hostilities in the Middle East, with the resumption of U.S.-Iran attacks and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen also striking Saudi Arabian oil tankers.

“Barring a near-term pullback in hostilities from both the U.S. and Iran, oil prices may stay higher for longer, renewing inflation concerns and sustaining the pressure” on bond yields, wrote John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics.

The bond market is “once again beholden to geopolitical headlines and the real-time fluctuations in oil,” wrote Vail Hartman, a U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Bond yields rise when investors expect inflation ahead, as investors will charge borrowers higher yields to protect against inflation eroding the interest rates that bonds pay. This year, that means bond yields are following the gyrations in oil markets.

Prices on the international Brent crude benchmark, which had settled back down to between $70 and $90 a barrel in recent weeks, topped $100 a barrel again on Thursday.

The ceasefire was a big reason why June’s inflation data was surprisingly tame, since the jump in oil prices consumers saw earlier this year cooled off. But the market is “clearly viewing the June CPI report as a one-off that is unlikely to be repeated,” Hartman wrote.

The moves come as Federal Reserve officials prepare for their July 28-29 meeting, where many analysts expect the Fed to keep short-term interest rates unchanged. But an inflation rebound makes Fed rate hikes more likely, analysts say, and bond markets are adjusting to those risks by driving up long-term interest rates.

“We maintain that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates next week,” Hartman wrote. “That being said, an elevated pace of core inflation during July and August would provide sufficient justification for a rate hike on Sept. 16.”

Stock Market Spillover

Rising bond yields can spill over into the stock market, according to Ed Yardeni, a veteran economist and president of Yardeni Research, who still expects a rally in equities this year. Yardeni anticipates the S&P 500 index will reach 8,250, up from today’s levels of 7,394, powered by a “resilient economy and strong earnings.”

But the market is likely to see some “choppiness” this summer, he wrote in a note to clients.

“The upward pressure on bond yields is another reason to expect a summer stall in the stock market,” Yardeni wrote, flagging jitters over artificial intelligence and a new round of U.S. tariffs as lingering concerns.

Higher bond yields mean companies—including tech firms tapping bond markets to fund their AI investments—could pay more to borrow money and thus weigh on earnings. But higher bond yields also mean investors can earn juicier interest rates on new bonds, making them a bit more attractive than riskier stocks.

Indeed, investors should consider adding high-quality bonds to their portfolio now that yields are higher, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS.

She anticipates yields will drift back down in the months ahead, giving investors an opportunity to pick up higher-paying bonds in the meantime. Bond prices rise when yields fall, since a 10-year Treasury bond paying investors a 4.7% interest rate is more attractive than one that pays closer to 4.5% or even 4%.

Yields are likely to fall because the U.S. and Iran “will eventually seek a path toward a diplomatic framework as economic pressures mount,” Hoffmann-Burchardi wrote. Investors should be prepared for more hostilities, but an eventual peace deal should keep a lid on oil prices and inflation, she wrote.

“We continue to see scope for yields to drift lower over the coming quarters, and believe quality fixed income offers an attractive combination of income, diversification, and medium-term return potential,” she wrote.