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Alan Greenspan was the Chair of the Federal Reserve during a period known as the "Great Moderation."
Credit: SAUL LOEB / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan died at the age of 100 on Monday.
• The central banker known as "The Maestro" served under four presidents and led the U.S. economy through a period of economic stability and low inflation.

Alan Greenspan, the economist who led the Federal Reserve for 18 years, has died at the age of 100.

The death of the former Fed chair was announced Monday by his wife, NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell. Greenspan was one of the most important figures in the U.S. economy during his era and shaped the Fed's approach to monetary policy. He was known for prioritizing the inflation-fighting half of the Fed's dual mandate to keep prices stable and employment high during his tenure from 1987 to 2006.

What This Means For The Economy

Greenspan was one of the most influential economists and central bankers in history. His death could reignite a debate about his legacy at a time when the Fed is entering a period of transition to new leadership under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Greenspan presided over a period of stability for the U.S. economy beginning at the tail end of President Ronald Reagan's term. To his admirers, Greenspan was "The Maestro," credited with guiding the U.S. through a period of stable inflation and low unemployment known as the Great Moderation. Critics of Greenspan blame his policies for the financial collapse that followed, especially his championing of deregulated free markets.

The Fed acknowledged the death of its former leader in a statement.

"During his 18 years as Chairman, he guided the Federal Reserve through periods of significant economic expansion as well as periods of considerable stress," the central bank said. "Under his leadership, the Federal Reserve achieved a sustained era of price stability that supported economic growth and helped anchor the public's confidence in the institution."

News of the day for June 22, 2026

Stocks rose last Thursday to end the holiday-shortened trading week on a high note.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Stocks are having a quiet morning Monday as investors come off a long holiday weekend with a close eye on peace talks between the U.S. and Iran; a second day of negotiations in Switzerland has reportedly concluded after renewed threats against Iran from President Trump and continued attacks in Lebanon by Israel made for an eventful first day of talks; earnings from FedEx and Micron are on tap this week, along with the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation; SpaceX shares are poised to start this week with a third straight day of declines; and shares of Apogee Therapeutics are soaring on news it is being acquired by AbbVie for $11 billion. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Steady as Investors Await Latest on Iran Talks

Stock futures are little-changed this morning as investors await news on the ongoing talks between the U.S. and Iran (more on that below). S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% recently, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq added 0.1%. The major indexes rose on Thursday to close out the holiday-shortened trading week higher amid optimism about the U.S.-Iran talks that were set to start over the weekend. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained ground in 11 of the past 12 weeks.

WTI crude oil futures were down slightly at $76.50 per barrel, giving up earlier gains, after Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend. Gold futures were down 0.5% at $4,225 an ounce, while bitcoin was trading at $64,700, up from a weekend low of around $63,000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on a range of consumer loans, was at 4.50%, up from 4.46% at the end of last week.

US, Iran Talks Continue After Bumpy First Day

The second day of talks between Iran and the U.S. in Switzerland to finalize an end to the war has reportedly come to a close, with mediators saying the sides have made "encouraging progress." The first day of talks Sunday, between Vice President J.D. Vance and officials from Iran and other countries, took place as President Trump made new threats to attack Iran, while Iran said over the weekend that the Strait of Hormuz has closed again, citing Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon. Those attacks, along with debates over Iran's nuclear program and the status of the Strait of Hormuz, are reportedly among the issues still to be worked out before a deal is finalized.

Inflation Data, Earnings from FedEx and Micron in Focus This Week

Key inflation data and earnings reports from several major companies are on the agenda this week. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, is due to be released Thursday. The Fed last week left its key interest rate unchanged because of lingering concerns about inflation, and market participants are increasingly convinced that the central bank could raise rates in the coming months. Among the big names reporting earnings this week, FedEx (FDX) is scheduled to release results on Tuesday, while the recently-spun-off FedEx Freight (FDXF) will deliver its numbers on Thursday. Memory chip maker Micron Technology (MU), one of the hottest stocks of 2026, is due to report on Wednesday, while Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants (DRI), cruise line operator Carnival Corp.  (CCL) and spice maker McCormick (MKC) are also scheduled for this week.

SpaceX Shares Extend Pullback Following Post-IPO Rally

SpaceX (SPCX) shares are falling this morning as the company continues its rollercoaster run after launching just over a week ago. After pricing at $135, SpaceX shares surged in their first day of trading on June 12, and followed that up with a rally to start last week, flying as high as $225 in intraday trading on Tuesday. The stock fell 5% and 3.6% on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, closing out the holiday-shortened trading week at $185. Ahead of Monday's opening bell, SpaceX shares are down 5% to $176 as investors look to find the proper valuation for Elon Musk's rocket, connectivity and AI company.

Apogee Therapeutics Stock Soars on News of $11B AbbVie Acquisition

Shares of Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) are soaring Monday following an announcement that the company has agreed to be acquired by AbbVie (ABBV). The companies said Monday that AbbVie would pay Apogee shareholders $135.11 per share, valuing the company at about $10.9 billion, a premium of about 60% to its $6.8 billion market capitalization as of last week's close. Apogee shares were up 47% in recent premarket trading at $133. The stock had jumped ahead of the official announcement after The Financial Times reported over the weekend that the deal was close. AbbVie shares were up 1.5% recently.

Micron Technology is slated to share quarterly results this week.
Credit: CFOTO / Future Publishing via Getty Images

Economists will update the Fed's preferred inflation index this week, giving investors a chance to see how the latest reading squares with the newly hawkish central bank.

The May output of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is due Thursday. The Fed sees the PCE as a more precise measure of price changes because it uses surveys of businesses, rather than consumers, to weigh a broader set of data. The PCE price index rose 3.8% year-over-year in April—well above the 2% target, and the largest increase in three years.

It'll be the first major bit of inflation data since Fed officials last week indicated that they envision lifting the central bank's benchmark rate by a median of a quarter-percentage-point before 2027. Officials haven't adjusted the federal funds rate since December. Raising the rate is the main way the Fed fights inflation; by ushering in higher interest rates, it can slow spending and temper price growth.

Investors may pay more attention to the PCE and other economic indicators, now that the head of the Fed wants it to say less about forecasts.

This week may also provide insight on the state of the AI play. Memory-chip maker Micron Technology—whose products are used in AI data centers—will release results Wednesday. Micron shares have vaulted higher with investors convinced that the AI buildout will fuel demand: Micron's market capitalization has hit $1 trillion, and its shares are up more than 800% this year through last week's close.

Market Recap

The major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher, despite lagging Wednesday when the Fed signaled a rate hike may be coming, as optimism about a U.S.-Iran reconciliation lifted investors' mood and increased the possibility that regular flows of ships and goods through the Strait of Hormuz might be restored. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all logged gains Thursday, the final trading day of a holiday-shortened week. For more, read our market round-up here.

This Week's Top Events

Here's a look at major events in the week ahead. TradingView publishes a more detailed calendar, but clicking the link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Tuesday, June 23: Carnival Corp.  (CCL) will hold a conference call on its second-quarter results at 10 a.m. ET, with results expected earlier that morning. The cruise operator reported record revenue in December and issued a bright outlook for the year ahead, though the U.S.-Iran conflict has pressured sector stocks by raising fuel prices.
• Tuesday: FedEx Corp. (FDX) is slated to host a conference call on its fiscal fourth-quarter results at 5 p.m. ET. The shipping giant beat expectations last quarter and raised its forecast; it has separated from its freight business, which has taken the name FedEx Freight (FDFX) and is slated to report on Thursday.
• Wednesday, June 24: Micron Technology (MU) plans to hold a conference call on its fiscal third-quarter results at 4:30 p.m. ET, with the numbers expected earlier in the afternoon. The memory and storage company performed better-than-expected last quarter. Micron is seeing strong demand, and has raised prices amid a shortage of memory components.
• Thursday, June 25: BlackBerry (BB) is set to release its fiscal first-quarter results and hold a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. Shares of the software company have popped in recent weeks, thanks to optimism over its growing partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) and brisk demand for its QNX business, which is used in driver assistance programs. Shares have more than doubled in 2026.
• Thursday: The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to update the PCE price index at 8:30 a.m. The May reading may surpass the 3.8% year-over-year increase in April, based on updates from other cost-of-living and inflation-adjacent indexes.
• Thursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI) plans to release its fourth-quarter numbers before the opening bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The company, which owns Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, has been wooing diners with deals like the “never ending pasta bowl.” Darden, like others in the industry, is serving a higher-earning clientele, as Americans adjust their habits to save money.

More Investopedia Reads

The SpaceX IPO has pushed attention to index funds, which may soon begin adding its shares, Crystal Kim reports. A study found AI tools tend to suggest riskier investments and tech-heavy portfolios, Trina Paul writes. Improved U.S.-Iran relations may revive investors' fervor for gold, Crystal Kim reports. Finally, here's Diccon Hyatt's report on what the Fed's latest decision could mean for your finances.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh concludes a news conference after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.
Credit: Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly said the Fed is committed to fighting inflation, which has remained above target for more than five years.
• Some experts were puzzled at the Fed's decision not to hike rates when inflation is far above its 2% target and has accelerated in recent months.

The Fed is talking tougher than ever about its determination to get inflation down to a 2% annual rate—but its new leader isn't explaining exactly how it plans to do that.

Kevin Warsh opened his term as the central bank’s new chair Wednesday by overhauling the Fed’s policy statement to include a forceful declaration emphasizing the inflation-fighting half of the Fed’s dual mandate. Yet, Warsh’s first press conference left Fed-watchers with many unanswered questions, one of the major ones being about the central bank’s strategy for achieving that goal.

What This Means For The Economy

The obscuring the reasoning behind the Fed’s decisions could leave the financial markets to do more guesswork about the Fed’s future actions.

Warsh deflected questions about why the Fed chose to keep its key interest rate flat rather than raising it to combat inflation that surged to a three-year high in May and hasn’t been at the Fed’s 2% target since 2021.

"I've got nothing more to say than the statement itself," Warsh said in response to a question, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee’s terse statement, which shed little light on the committee’s reasoning.

"Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy," the statement said. "The Committee will deliver price stability."

In declining to elaborate on the Fed’s future plans, Warsh was following through on his long-held belief that the central bank should cut back on the amount of “forward guidance” it gives to financial markets.

Warsh has said such guidance reduces the Fed’s flexibility in responding to changing conditions. To that end, Warsh also declined to submit a projection for the quarterly “dot plot” chart, in which policymakers estimate where they expect to set the fed funds rate in the coming months.

The dot plot released Wednesday showed that at least half of the Fed’s 19 policymakers expect to raise the Fed’s key interest rate at some point this year. Financial markets expect the same, and are pricing in a quarter-point rate hike by September, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

However, there was no official word on the committee’s reasoning. Some experts were left wondering why the Fed chose to keep rates steady rather than raise them.

"The fact that inflation is above target, and you have this huge commitment to stable prices, to meeting the Fed's inflation target: Why not raise the interest rate now?" Jacob Robbins, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Illinois at Chicago, said. "And I don't think that there's a great answer to that, because the two are at odds. Inflation is above target. We want to bring down inflation, and yet we're keeping the interest rate exactly where it is."

The peace deal signed between the U.S. and Iran on Wednesday offered some hope that war-related price hikes would start to fade, potentially allowing inflation to come down without any rate hikes, Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, wrote in a commentary.

But Warsh didn’t make that case, to the frustration of some Fed experts, including Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, who criticized Warsh for failing to provide a projection and explain why the Fed chose to hold rates steady.

"They don't have a crystal ball, but I really do expect them to explain what they're doing right now, and show their work," Sahm said on Bloomberg Television.

Mehmet Oz, head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, says eliminating fraud would double Medicare's funding.
Credit: Fatih Aktas / Anadolu / Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The Medicare Part A trust fund is projected to run out by mid-2033, leaving only enough tax revenue to cover 89% of benefits.
• Efforts to combat fraud and waste in Medicare could help extend the program's solvency.
• However, it wouldn't fix the issues on its own. Other solutions need to be implemented to ensure the trust fund's long-term sustainability.

The trust fund that helps pay for essential medical services for older adults is running out of money, and Mehmet Oz, the television host-turned–Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator, says eliminating fraud and waste is the solution.

The Medicare Board of Trustees annual report, released last week, says the Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund will run out in the second quarter of 2033, a quarter earlier than last year's projections.

The HI trust fund supports Medicare Part A, which helps older Americans pay for inpatient hospital services, hospice care, and skilled nursing facilities and home health services following hospital stays. Oz has repeatedly said that eliminating fraud and waste would "double the life expectancy of the Medicare trust fund."

Once it runs out, Medicare Part A will only have tax revenue to cover 89% of benefits. Oz has insisted the program is safe from cuts to benefits.

"We're not touching Medicare in any way," he told Bloomberg in May. "The President has been very clear, he loves and cherishes Medicare, it will remain exactly as you know it, but it's going to last longer because we are taking the fraud out."

Why This Matters

Older and disabled Americans on Medicare are partly covered by Medicare Part A to help them pay for essential hospital care. If it runs out before any solution is found, beneficiaries will either get fewer benefits or the government will need to borrow more money.

The Trump administration says it's prioritized cracking down on fraud and waste in federal programs such as Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare, to help reduce the federal deficit. Recently, an Anti-Fraud Task Force led by Vice President J.D. Vance announced a crackdown on hospices and home health agencies (HHAs) covered by Medicare Part A.

In May, CMS and the Anti-Fraud Task Force suspended approvals of new hospices and HHAs for six months to focus on shutting down fraudulent practices. However, the task force has at times wrongly flagged and suspended legitimate hospice agencies, the Washington Post reported.

Medicare's fee-for-service improper payment rate for fiscal 2025 was 6.55%, or $28.83 billion, according to the CMS. Improper payments can stem from fraud or abuse, but not all do. They can include overpayments, underpayments, or cases where there wasn't enough information to determine whether a payment was proper.

Eliminating improper payments entirely would get the program halfway there, or more, said Zach Gaumer, vice president of health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank.

Addressing fraud and waste matters, but the trust fund needs other fixes too, Gaumer said.

The trustees' report says that to make the trust fund solvent for the next 75 years, policymakers would need to either cut benefits 12% for current and future beneficiaries or raise the Medicare payroll tax from 2.9% to 3.46%. Delaying action means more costly changes will be needed later, the report notes.

The Bipartisan Policy Center has proposed some changes that would add costs for beneficiaries but extend the program's timeline, such as an out-of-pocket limit for those in traditional Medicare. But it has also recommended steps to shore up the trust fund:

• Reducing payments to skilled nursing facilities, HHAs, and inpatient rehabilitation facilities.
• Contracting with other insurance companies to lower the cost of certain services, such as laboratory and imaging.
• Increasing the number of beneficiaries who pay the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA).

Options traders see SpaceX's stock swinging 10% in either direction next week through Friday.
Credit: Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Options pricing suggests SpaceX's stock could rise as high as $204 or fall as low as $166 next week through Friday.
• Catalysts to watch for include index inclusion and the first wave of research reports.

Volatility has come for SpaceX.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) closed Thursday, the final session of the week, at $185, over 40% above their IPO price but off record highs of around $225. Options traders see the stock moving 10% in either direction next week through Friday, suggesting the stock could hit a low of $166 or to rise to about $204.

WHY IT MATTERS TO YOU

SpaceX could be added to major indexes and the funds that track them starting next week.

Events generally expected by investors could induce more action in the coming sessions. A pair of major index providers, Center for Research in Security Prices, or CRSP, and S&P Dow Jones Indices could add the stock to some of their indexes as soon as Monday, and others—such as LSEG's FTSE Russell and MSCI—could do so by the end of the month.

The days leading up to index inclusion tend to boost stock prices as funds tracking those indexes buy shares. That helpful hand might materialize next week. There is one other catalyst to watch: research reports, which, when paired with price targets, can give some measure of Wall Street's outlook for and reasoning regarding a stock.

Aside from Oppenheimer's early initiation report—which set a $190 price target—there isn't a lot of sell-side coverage on the stock right now, but the first wave of initiation reports could also land as soon as next week. (Morningstar, which isn't a bank, published a comparatively bearish outlook ahead of the IPO.)

Underwriters typically observe a 10-day quiet period after the pricing of an IPO before publishing analyst reports. Since SpaceX's IPO priced on June 11, analysts at underwriting banks would be free to start publishing their research on Monday.

Secretary Linda McMahon's Department of Education will offer an interest rate cut in an effort to bring borrowers back into repayment.
Credit: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Federal student loan borrowers who enroll in autopay between July 1 and Sept. 30 will receive a temporary interest rate reduction.
• The 1-percentage-point interest rate reduction lasts through June 30, 2028.
• Borrowers already enrolled in autopay will automatically receive a 0.75 percentage-point reduction in interest rates.

For a limited time, federal student loan borrowers who enroll in autopay will have a reduced interest rate.

Borrowers who sign up for autopay between July 1 and Sept. 30 will qualify for a temporary interest rate reduction, the Department of Education announced Thursday. Eligible borrowers' interest rates will be one percentage point lower through June 30, 2028.

This reduction is available to all borrowers whose student loans originated after July 1, 2012. However, borrowers still on the now-defunct Saving on a Valuable Education plan will have to transfer to an active repayment plan to be eligible for the reduction.

Why This Matters

The Department of Education is pushing all borrowers in default to resume repayment, and student loan collections are expected to resume soon. The temporary reduction will make repayment cheaper, since most borrowers pay interest on top of their principal balance monthly.

The reduction is a part of an effort to bring more borrowers back into repayment. Defaulted borrowers (those who have not made a payment for over 270 days) must consolidate their loans and resume payments before enrolling in autopay.

Before the student loan payment pause during the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 80% of borrowers were enrolled in autopay. At the time, they could receive a 0.25-percentage-point interest rate reduction. Now, only 40% of borrowers have their payments automatically withdrawn from their accounts each month.

Since the pandemic payment pause was lifted, borrowers have had trouble resuming payments. There are currently 9 million borrowers in default, or 20% of the entire federal student loan portfolio, Nicholas Kent, undersecretary at the Department of Education, said in a press call. Another 3 million borrowers are in delinquency.

Borrowers already enrolled in autopay will receive an automatic 0.75% reduction to match that of new autopay enrollees.

SpaceX shares continued to slump after posting their first daily decline on Wednesday.
Credit: TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX stock continued its volatile run on Thursday, tumbling nearly 9% after falling Wednesday, which was its first down day since last week's IPO.
• Experts say investor appetite, a scarcity of tradable shares, and the speculative nature of SpaceX's business will keep the stock volatile.

SpaceX stock is continuing its descent back down to earth. Whether it—like one of its reusable rockets—can return to the stratosphere remains to be seen.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) were recently down 10% to about $173. After three days of big gains, the stock fell 5% yesterday to post its first daily loss since Friday's record-breaking IPO, which rocketed the company into the top tier of the world's most valuable businesses.

On Tuesday, it leapfrogged Amazon (AMZN) in intraday trading to rank fifth before giving up some of its gains. Tuesday's trading even brought SpaceX within a hair of Microsoft's (MSFT) market value and near the $3 trillion mark, a market capitalization only ever reached by four companies: Apple (AAPL), the first to hit $3 trillion, took more than 40 years to reach the milestone, while Microsoft, Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG) also needed decades.

Why This Is Important

SpaceX was the first of three mega-cap IPOs expected this year—the others being AI labs Anthropic and OpenAI. The stock's performance over the next few weeks and months is expected to set the tone—and possibly the timeline—for those two blockbuster debuts.

SpaceX's first days of trading also made CEO Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. His SpaceX stake accounts for an estimated $900 billion of his $1.25 trillion net worth, meaning small swings in SpaceX's stock can move Musk's paper wealth by tens of billions of dollars. The stock's decline Wednesday slashed Musk's riches by an estimated $56 billion; there are fewer than 40 individual and family fortunes on earth larger than $56 billion.

Market watchers expected SpaceX stock to be volatile in its first days of trading due to a combination of strong investor interest and the company's unusually small public float. Analysts at private markets intelligence firm PitchBook on Wednesday warned investors to prepare for “Tesla-like volatility” on steroids.

“A 4.2% initial float and a roughly 30% retail allocation set up 20% to 30% swings on catalysts,” the analysts wrote, adding that the stock will likely be driven more by milestones than fundamentals, “compressing the distance between a headline and a price move.”

That volatility could make its way into more stock portfolios soon. Some index providers, like Nasdaq, tweaked their inclusion criteria to speed up SpaceX's entry to their indexes. The stock could land in some indexes as soon as Monday, potentially giving it a boost by forcing passive index funds to buy shares. 

SpaceX stock's performance in the next few months will likely influence when AI labs Anthropic and OpenAI stage their own market debuts. Both companies have filed confidential paperwork in preparation for IPOs, but when shares actually begin trading will likely depend on the market's enthusiasm for speculative AI plays. If SpaceX stock rebounds and holds above its IPO price, that could give Anthropic and OpenAI the confidence they need to cash in on investors' risk appetite.

If Thursday's losses hold, funds buying SpaceX before Monday will be paying 20% less than investors who bought at the stock's record high above $225 on Tuesday morning. Still, they'll be paying 30% more than if they'd bought at the stock's $135 IPO price.

Suburban homes in Nevada, where prices surged during the pandemic housing boom.
Credit: carlofranco / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• People who scammed the pandemic-era Paycheck Protection Program and other relief programs used the cash to bid up the price of homes, cars, and other goods, new research finds.
• Home prices rose about 26% over 2020 and 2021, and relief program fraud is among the bigger factors for the rise in housing prices.

If you were in the market for a house around Henderson, Nevada, in June 2020, you were often bidding against buyers in a frenzied housing market where prices were surging. One of your rivals might have been a small-business owner named Brandon Casutt, who, according to court records, had recently received about $500,000 from government pandemic relief programs.

Lawmakers hastily created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) shortly after the pandemic hit, ultimately disbursing about $793 billion to stabilize household finances and the economy. The priority was getting money out the door quickly with minimal red tape, and many obtained funds with little scrutiny.

On paper, Casutt was just the kind of person the government meant to help. His business, Sky DeSign, and his charity, Skyler's CF Foundation, needed the money to pay their employees during the lockdowns. And indeed, shortly after receiving the money, Casutt did write checks to dozens of people for "pandemic pay" and "back pay" in the memo.

But the checks didn't go to locked-down employees; they went to Casutt's family and friends, according to federal prosecutors. He ultimately used the funds to buy a $400,000 house. He pleaded guilty to fraud and money laundering and was sentenced to two years in prison in 2023.

Researchers now say cases like this, repeated across the country, were among the reasons home prices shot up during the pandemic, and those increases are still affecting buyers and homeowners today. According to the analysis, fraud was among the largest drivers of home-price growth, alongside limited land availability. It even outweighed a home's suitability for remote work.

Why This Matters

The findings suggest that fraud was an underappreciated driver of pandemic-era inflation.

Fraud in the PPP, unemployment insurance, and other relief programs distorted housing markets enough to account for 22.5% of the home-price increase over 2020 and 2021, the researchers at the University of Texas at Austin found. Finance professors John Griffin and Samuel Kruger, with doctoral student Prateek Mahajan, reported the finding in a paper forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics.

In a 2023 paper, the same team estimated the PPP lost $117.3 billion, or about 15% of the money spent through the program, to fraud. They measured the effect by comparing price changes in areas suspected of high levels of PPP fraud with those in areas with low levels. Prices rose faster in high-fraud areas, even after controlling for other factors.

Major consumer purchases also increased in high-fraud areas, suggesting the fraud may have fed inflation more broadly. The researchers found that PPP fraud led to a 2.8% increase in auto title registrations.

In this way, PPP fraudsters harmed not only the taxpayers they stole from but also homebuyers and potentially all other consumers, who paid higher prices than they should have.

The effects are still being felt.

"If you're just a regular homeowner, and you happen to purchase in one of those areas in 2021 or 2022, you probably purchased at an inflated price," Kruger told the McCombs School of Business newsletter. "As that excess demand comes off the market, you're going to expect to lose money on the house."

Intel stock touched a record high in Thursday morning trading

Shares of Intel could approach their record levels Thursday.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Shares of Intel rose Thursday after an overnight message from President Trump, who said Apple will work with the company to design and build chips.
• Intel's stock has backed off the record highs it saw earlier this year, though those levels remain in view. Wall Street analysts, however, aren't as optimistic about the stock.

Intel stock is getting a Trump bump.

Shares of the U.S. chipmaker were climbing Thursday, rising 8% in recent action—and earlier touching a record high—after President Donald Trump overnight on Truth Social said Apple (AAPL) "has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Reports that Intel (INTC) might make chips for Apple have been making the rounds for months, supporting some investors' optimism about Intel shares, and Trump's statements offered the latest reason to believe an announcement might be on its way. Intel said it had no comment on Trump's message, and Apple did not reply to Investopedia's request for comment in time for publication.

Trump in August called for the resignation of Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, but more recently—and, notably, after the U.S. announced a stake in the company later that same month—he's been more like a booster.

That, improved business performance and optimism that the company's unit that makes chips for other firms might see its prospects improve, has helped drive the stock up more than 450% over the past 12 months. In April, the shares topped record-high levels that had stood since 2000, and while they'd pulled back a bit since, they moved even higher this morning.

Wall Street analysts have expressed some skepticism that the climb's torrid pace need continue in the near term. The Street's mean price target, at around $110 based on current targets compiled by Visible Alpha, is below yesterday's close near $121.

Shares of Apple were recently up about 1%. CEO Tim Cook yesterday told The Wall Street Journal that the company expected to raise prices in response to rising memory costs; that move may be helping the stock because it's seen as protecting margins. Read our full coverage of today's trading here.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect recent market prices.