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News of the day for May 26, 2026

The S&P 500 enters the holiday-shortened week on an eight week winning streak.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Stock futures are rising at the start of a busy week of earnings reports, while investors monitor progress on peace talks with Iran; Trump said over the weekend that the talks are moving forward, but "self defense" strikes by the U.S. military in southern Iran have renewed tensions; a number of retailers and tech companies will report earnings this week; shares of chipmakers are gaining in premarket trading as the AI trade sustains its momentum; and Ferrari shares are slipping after the company unveiled its first fully electric sports car. Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Rise, Oil Falls as Traders Monitor Iran Talks

Stock futures are gaining ground ahead of the first opening bell of the holiday-shortened trading week, as investors await news of progress on peace talks with Iran. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.5% recently, while futures tied to the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively. The stock market ended last week on a high note, with the Dow closing at a record high and the S&P 500 locking in its eighth straight week of gains. WTI crude oil futures, the U.S. benchmark, were down more than 4% at around $92.50 per barrel, trading at their lowest levels in over a month, following news over the weekend that a deal with Iran could be close (more on that below). The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 4.49%, down from 4.56% at Friday's close and well below the 16-month high of 4.67% it hit a week ago. Bitcoin was trading at $77,000, up from a weekend low of about $74,200, while gold futures ticked lower to $4,510 an ounce.

Trump Says Iran Deal Could Be Close Despite US Strikes

President Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran are "proceeding nicely" on a deal to end the war that started nearly three months ago. A deal could include a 60-day period of negotiations that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, while final decisions are made about Iran's nuclear program and sanctions waivers are granted to allow Iran to sell its own oil, per The Associated Press. Tensions between the countries remain high this morning after the U.S. made what it called "self-defense" strikes in southern Iran, which Iran has already threatened to retaliate for. Trump on social media also said a deal could come with more countries in the Middle East signing on to the Abraham Accords, a 2020 agreement normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and other countries in the region.

More Retail, Tech Earnings on Deck For This Week

There's a a full slate of earnings reports this week, with results due from the retail and tech sectors. Among the retailers, Best Buy (BBY) is scheduled to release its numbers on Wednesday, while Costco Wholesale (COST), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Burlington Stores (BURL) and Gap (GAP) are scheduled to report the following day. Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) delivered mixed results last week. On the tech front, software giant and Dow component Salesforce (CRM), which has seen its stock slide this year amid concerns about possible AI disruption to its business, is slated to release results Wednesday. Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Synopsys (SNPS) are also set to report earnings on Wednesday, while Dell Technologies (DELL) is scheduled to release its results on Thursday.

Chip Stocks Extend Rally Ahead of the Bell

Chip stocks are rising in premarket trading as the sector looks to extend a rally that has powered major indexes to record highs lately. The iShares Semiconductor ETF was up 3% ahead of the opening bell, as Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Micron (MU) each jumped more than 7%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA) also gained ground. Shares of Nvidia, the chipmaker at the heart of the AI boom, lost ground the past two sessions despite a strong earnings report.

Ferrari Stock Slips After Electric Sports Car Unveiling

Shares of Ferrari (RACE) are moving lower this morning after the carmaker revealed its first all-electric sports car over the weekend. The company said the Ferrari Luce was designed in collaboration with LoveFrom, the "design collective" started by former Apple (AAPL) designer Jony Ive, who played a key role in the launch of several Apple products. The car will start at around 550,000 euros, or about $640,000. The new Ferrari model will provide the latest test for EV demand among the world's wealthy. The EV industry has struggled in the U.S. recently following the elimination of federal tax credits by the Trump administration. Ferrari shares were down nearly 3% recently.

Dell shares have more than doubled in value since the start of the year.
Credit: Michel Porro / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Dell's latest earnings report is scheduled to be released Thursday afternoon, with the server maker's stock seen potentially extending its record rally.
• Dell is expected to report another quarter of surging revenue and profits, boosted by growing AI demand.

Dell Technologies is set to report earnings after the closing bell Thursday, with the PC and server maker's stock seen potentially extending its rally to new highs after the results.

Based on recent options pricing, traders expect Dell (DELL) shares could swing up to 10% by the end of the week. A move of that size from Friday's record close could see shares rally to a fresh high around $326, or slip below $265, giving back some of their recent gains.

Dell shares have more than doubled in value since the start of the year, as a string of strong earnings reports from other hardware makers have fueled renewed enthusiasm for the "pick-and-shovel" companies supplying the equipment big tech companies are buying to build out AI data centers.

Why This Matters to Investors

Thursday's results could give investors their latest data point on how AI spending is evolving after Nvidia topped estimates last week.

In a recent note to clients, Bank of America analysts wrote Dell could top first-quarter estimates and lift its sales forecast, thanks to "substantial" demand for both PCs and AI servers.

Dell is projected to report a more than 50% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $36.18 billion, with adjusted earnings of $2.97 per share, up from $1.55 the same time a year ago, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Analysts are largely bullish on Dell. Six of the seven analysts with current ratings calling the stock a "buy," compared to one neutral rating, though its blown past their mean target of $223 with its recent rally.

Marvell shares have more than doubled in value since the start of the year.
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Marvell Technology's next quarterly results are due after markets close Wednesday, with the hardware maker's stock seen potentially surging to a fresh record.
• Analysts project rising revenue and profits as growing spending plans from big tech companies are expected to continue boosting sales.

Marvell Technology is slated to post its latest earnings report after the closing bell on Wednesday, with the stock seen potentially reaching new highs following the results.

Based on recent options pricing, traders are anticipating a swing of up to 12.5% by the end of the week. A move of that size from Marvell's (MRVL) record close Tuesday could see shares extend their recent rally to a fresh high above $234, or slip below $183, giving back some of their recent gains.

Marvell shares have more than doubled in value since the start of the year, as a number of AI chip and networking equipment stocks have rallied to record highs amid improving sentiment after a string of strong earnings reports. The chipmaker's stock has also gotten a boost in recent months from a new deal with Nvidia (NVDA) and reports that it is in talks to design new custom chips for Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google.

Why This Matters to Investors

Marvell's latest earnings could give investors another data point on the trajectory of AI spending after industry leader Nvidia beat estimates with its results last week.

Ahead of the report, Oppenheimer analysts told clients they see significant upside potential for Marvell's first-quarter results and second-quarter outlook as big tech firms continue to invest in AI hardware.

Marvell's first-quarter revenue is expected to come in at $2.41 billion along with adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share, each up nearly 30% from the same time last year.

Analysts are largely bullish on Marvell. Eleven of the 13 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha have a "buy" rating on the stock, with two hold neutral ratings, though it has already blown past their mean target around $155 with its recent rally.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices and analyst estimates.

Gap is one of several retailers slated to report results this week.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Investors have a short week ahead—and a long list of retailer earnings to peruse.

Quarterly results from companies including Dollar Tree, Burlington Stores, Gap and American Eagle Outfitters are set to land this week. They could offer more insights into how consumers are responding to high gas prices, rising inflation and a stalled job market. Investors are looking for clearer trend lines after mass retailers painted a somewhat muddled outlook.

Last week, Walmart issued a soft forecast for the current quarter, though it maintained its full-year outlook. Target topped expectations and raised its outlook. Still, shares of both companies fell. Shoe and apparel companies had better luck impressing investors: Strong results boosted shares of VF Corp., the parent company of The North Face and Timberland; Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc’Teryx; and Ralph Lauren.

Despite feeling downbeat about the economy, Americans have continued to spend, a break with historic norms. Investors are wondering how long that attitude will last, and they’ll get fresh data Tuesday when the Conference Board, an economic think tank, updates its Consumer Confidence Index.

The week may also shed further light on the state of the AI trade after Nvidia's results last week. Dell Technologies, Synopsys, and Marvell Technology are set to hand in results. Dell and Synopsys executives have said demand remains brisk.

Market Recap

The major stock indexes all ended last week with gains, closing out affairs with a modestly upbeat session that lifted the benchmark S&P 500 to an eighth consecutive week of gains. Investors tracked a potential thaw in U.S.-Iran relations, falling oil prices and earnings from Nvidia that showed the potential for the AI buildout to stay on track. Read Investopedia's full coverage of Friday's trading here.

This Week's Top Events

Stock and bond markets will be closed Monday for Memorial Day. Here's a look at notable events happening throughout the rest of the week. TradingView publishes a more detailed calendar, but clicking the link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Tuesday, May 26: The Conference Board is set to update its U.S. Consumer Confidence Index at 10 a.m. ET. Consumers have been relatively pessimistic, though their mood brightened a bit last month.
• Wednesday, April 27: Best Buy (BBY) is slated to release its first-quarter results and host a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. The forum will give investors a chance to hear from executive Jason Bonfig, who is slated to become CEO of the retailer. 
• Wednesday: Marvell Technology (MRVL) is slated to release first-quarter results at 4:45 p.m. ET and host a conference call shortly after that. Marvell shares have shot up more than 200% over the past year, thanks in part to strong results last quarter and investment from big names like Nvidia (NVDA).
• Wednesday: Synopsys (SNPS) is set to release its second-quarter results after the closing bell, followed by a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. Company shares rose in March on news that activist firm Elliott Investment Management, had a stake in Synopsys.
• Wednesday: Salesforce (CRM) is scheduled to share its first-quarter results after the stock market closes, and discuss its performance on a live broadcast at 5 p.m. ET. Salesforce shares rallied after the software giant beat expectations last quarter, but they're still down more than 30% from a year ago.
• Thursday, May 28: Dollar Tree (DLTR) is scheduled to report first-quarter results before the opening bell, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. Investors will watch for signs that growth is slowing at dollar stores as low-income customers cut back, offsetting gains from affluent shoppers. 
• Thursday: Off-price retailer Burlington Stores (BURL) plans to share its first-quarter results before the stock market opens, and host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. One of its competitors, TJX (TJX), recently reported strong numbers and issued a rosy forecast. Kohl’s (KSS) is also slated to report on Thursday.
• Thursday: Dell Technologies (DELL) plans to release its first-quarter results, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. The computer and server company's bullishness impressed investors last quarter, with company executives saying “the AI opportunity is transforming” Dell. 
• Thursday: Gap (GAP) is set to publish its first-quarter results at 4:15 p.m. ET, followed by a conference call at 5 p.m. ET. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) will also post first-quarter results after the closing bell.

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Nvidia shares have slipped about 9% off their highs earlier this month
Credit: CFOTO / Future Publishing / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia shares failed to get a lift from Friday's broad market rally, despite the chipmaker's strong results.
• Analysts said they still expect gains ahead for the AI chipmaker, with options pricing suggesting traders see the stock swinging up to 4% in either direction next week.

Nvidia shares got left out of this week's market rally despite strong results from the chipmaker. Could next week's performance be better?

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell nearly 2% Friday, making it the weakest performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a day when broader gains drove the index to new highs. The slide left the chipmaker's stock about 9% off its record earlier this month, though a history of dipping in the days following the earnings could help fuel optimism about a rebound.

Current options pricing suggests traders see the shares swinging up to 4% in either direction by the end of next week. A move of that size from Friday's close could see Nvidia shares rise back to about $224, nearing their recent record, or drag them below $207.

Why This Matters to Investors

Nvidia's stock performance this week could mirror a pattern of falling in the days following the company's earnings report, before turning higher in the weeks and months that follow.

A post-earnings slump would hardly be a new occurrence for Nvidia. The AI giant's stock declined the day after each of its previous three earnings reports, before later reversing the slide to reach new highs. Even with this week's losses, the shares are up 15% from the start of the year, and nearly 65% over the past 12 months as investors have showed renewed enthusiasm for the AI trade.

Analysts at William Blair, who told clients strong results from Nvidia have been "normalized," said they still see gains ahead for Nvidia as big tech companies continue spending heavily on AI hardware and reiterated an "overweight" rating.

While ratings may still be in flux in the wake of Nvidia's latest results, analysts remains overwhelmingly bullish on the company's stock. All but one of the 14 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha recommend buying the stock, compared to one neutral rating. Their average price target of $286 would suggest nearly 33% upside from the stock's recent level.

AI is expected to increase productivity enough to offset a slowing growth in the number of U.S. workers.
Credit: cofotoisme / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• With U.S. labor force growth flatlining, only productivity gains, such as those from AI, can keep the economy expanding.
• Labor force participation has fallen as the population ages, and the immigration crackdown has further slowed workforce growth.
• Increased education and flexibility for working parents could encourage more people to work.

If the U.S. economy is to keep expanding this decade, it will have to do so with far less growth in its workforce.

That's the conclusion of analysts at Oxford Economics, who found labor force growth has been slowed by baby boomer retirements and, since 2025, a sharp drop in immigration. With the workforce barely expanding, the economy can only grow at its former rate if AI delivers on industry hype and makes workers significantly more productive.

"As baby boomers age out of the labor force, there isn't an obvious pool of available workers to offset the increase in retirees and the slowdown in net immigration," Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in the analysis.

"We forecast almost no growth in the labor force over the coming decade, leaving the economy increasingly reliant on productivity to keep real potential GDP growth north of 2%," said Martin. He added that AI should promote "an acceleration in productivity" that supports economic growth in the near term.

Why This Matters to You

Immigration, advances in productivity and population growth have all contributed to U.S. economic expansion in the past, but future economic growth will increasingly rely on technological innovation if current trends continue.

Oxford’s analysis noted how dramatically the labor market has shifted recently from long-term patterns. The economy barely created any jobs last year, reflecting a hiring slowdown from tariff-related uncertainty. The federal crackdown on immigration has also cut the number of available workers, the analysts noted.

A key statistic in analyzing labor force trends is the labor force participation rate, which shows how much of the population has a job or is looking for one. That figure took a nosedive when the pandemic hit, causing a wave of early retirements, and labor force participation hasn't recovered since—it's now at 61.8%.

Oxford expects workforce participation to fall even further, about another percentage point. That might not sound like much, but it equals about 2.1 million workers—about a full year's worth of job growth in a healthy economy. That workforce gap could leave the economy dependent on gains from AI or some other boost in productivity to make up for fewer workers.

Oxford looked at several ways to draw more people into the workforce. One involves continuing to increase the education level of the U.S. population. Enrollment in higher education has increased since the Great Recession, and more-educated workers tend to have better employment prospects and longer careers, according to the analysts.

Another possibility: Congress fails to shore up Social Security's OASI trust fund before 2033, when projections say it will run out. That could trigger an increase in the retirement age or benefit cuts that force workers to delay retirement.

Increases in remote work and government policies that expand family leave and childcare could also allow more parents, especially mothers, to stay on the job.

UBS Raises S&P 500 Target, Suggests Reducing Exposure to Mega-Cap Tech Stocks

The S&P 500 has gained ground for eight consecutive weeks.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• UBS has raised its year-end S&P 500 price target, citing the firm's expectation that corporate earnings will continue to grow at a healthy rate, helping to offset headwinds from elevated oil prices and volatility in the bond market.
• The bank advocate diversifying portfolios to reduce concentration in mega-cap tech stocks and increase exposure to international markets, while using broad commodities exposure as a buffer against geopolitical risk.

Stocks are on a winning streak and, despite a litany of risks, the outlook on Wall Street is rosy, analysts say.

UBS has raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 7,500, citing strong corporate earnings growth, supportive monetary policy, and their expectation that oil prices won’t derail the economy’s expansion. The benchmark index was on track Friday to notch its eighth consecutive week of gains, trading near 7,500 and poised to close just shy of last week's record high.

The recent rally “has validated our approach of remaining focused on fundamentals rather than being swayed by headlines,” wrote Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note distributed Thursday. And the fundamentals, according to Haefele, point to continued gains for stocks. 

Why This Is Important

The U.S. stock market has repeatedly defied expectations over the past few years, climbing to a series of record highs despite whipsawing trade policy, heightened geopolitical risk and persistent inflation. Coming off a very strong round of corporate earnings reports, many on Wall Street see good reason to expect continued gains despite elevated uncertainty.

Strong Earnings Power Stock Market

Historically strong earnings growth is one of the key pillars Haefele expects to support markets this year. With about 95% of the S&P 500 having reported first-quarter results, earnings are on track to grow at their fastest pace in four years, and companies have beaten estimates on the top and bottom lines at an extraordinary rate. As a result, Wall Street analysts have raised their expectations for profit growth at one of the fastest rates in decades, according to Haefele. 

Granted, much of that growth has been concentrated in the tech sector, especially among the companies most exposed to the AI data center boom. A memory shortage driven by surging demand from AI data centers has caused sales and profits to soar at companies such as Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK). Tech giants reported their cloud computing businesses accelerated in the first quarter, helping to drive demand for chips from the likes of Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Just four semiconductor companies and the energy sector account for more than half of the increase in earnings estimates over the past three months, according to Haefele. 

Nonetheless, outside of the booming chip industry, earnings are still growing at a healthy clip. The S&P 500’s median earnings beat in the first quarter was nearly 6%, above the long-term average. And the median company's growth expectations are up about 3.5%—impressive considering estimates usually decline as reports roll in. 

“Provided the U.S. consumer and labor market hold up, continued economic growth and AI adoption should drive further U.S. earnings increases,” wrote Haefele. 

Inflation Poses a Risk

However, it’s far from a given that the consumer and labor market will hold up. U.S. gas prices are up 50% since the end of February and are currently at their highest level since 2022. Inflation surged to its fastest pace since 2023 last month, and consumer confidence has collapsed under the weight of higher prices. 

U.S. consumers have been supported thus far by unusually large tax returns and coordinated efforts by governments across the globe to keep a lid on oil prices. Those efforts, including releases from strategic reserves and energy-saving measures, have helped to keep oil prices trending sideways over the past two months despite the fact that barely any oil is leaving the Persian Gulf. 

“We are conscious that buffers are finite, and if disruption to energy supply continues for a prolonged period, oil prices are likely to rise” and put pressure on consumers, wrote Haefele, who advocates increasing commodities exposure as a hedge against geopolitical risk. 

High oil prices threaten stock market gains via another mechanism: monetary policy. With inflation soaring, investors now expect the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate change will be an increase, rather than the cut that was widely expected heading into this year. 

Time to Diversify Away from Big Tech?

UBS is far more optimistic than the average trader. Rates are already “modestly restrictive and wage growth is falling,” wrote Haefele, who also notes incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh is “inclined to look through higher inflation caused by one-off factors” like the Strait of Hormuz closure. UBS expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December and again in March, the odds of which markets currently put at 0%.

In the event that Treasury yields rise, UBS expects strong corporate earnings and spending to help offset interest rate headwinds. Though the firm advocates diversifying portfolios to reduce the concentration of mega-cap tech stocks like the Magnificent Seven, and recommends upping exposure to international equities, especially Japan, Switzerland and emerging markets. 

Dell Technologies shares have more than doubled in value this year.
Credit: Joan Cros / NurPhoto / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Dell shares rallied to a new high Friday, as investors grow more bullish on the PC and server maker ahead of its earnings report next week.
• Several tech stocks have surged to new highs in recent months amid renewed enthusiasm around the AI trade, as big tech companies spend heavily on AI hardware.

The year keeps getting better for Dell Technologies stock.

Shares of Dell (DELL) were up over 16% near $294 in recent trading, extending their recent winning streak after a string of positive developments and leaving them on track to top a record close set just earlier this month. The stock has more than doubled in value this year so far, amid growing optimism around the PC and server maker's opportunity to benefit from the AI boom.

In a note to clients Friday, analysts at Citi said better-than-expected earnings from partner Nvidia (NVDA) this week could be taken as another constructive signal for Dell ahead of its earnings. Dell is set to release its latest results after the closing bell next Thursday, with analysts expecting growing revenues and profits on AI-driven demand.

Why This Matters to Investors

A number of tech stocks, including Dell, have rallied to record highs in recent weeks as big tech companies continue spending heavily on building out AI data centers and investors favor the "pick-and-shovel" stocks of the companies making AI hardware.

Bank of America analysts, who recently reiterated a "buy" rating for the stock, said they have seen "substantial" demand for AI hardware and traditional PCs in the first half of the year, and expect AI server sales to remain strong in the second half.

Analysts are largely bullish on Dell stock ahead of next week's earnings. Six of the seven analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha recommend buying the stock compared to just one neutral rating, though its already blow past their mean target of $223 with its recent gains.

With Friday's rally, Dell's stock is up nearly 140% year-to-date, making it one of the S&P 500's biggest gainers of 2026 so far.

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh delivers remarks after being sworn in during a swearing-in ceremony in the East Room of the White House on May 22, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Credit: Roberto Schmidt / Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has indicated he may want to reduce the Fed's communication frequency.
• Analysts warn that less Fed guidance could lead to more volatile markets, especially during major economic data releases.
• Warsh's approach may shift the Fed away from its recent trend of transparency, which began in the 1990s.

As Kevin Warsh takes over as the Federal Reserve’s new chair, markets are grappling with the risk that the Fed will become harder to decipher.

Fedwatchers have spent decades refining their capabilities—tracking every speech, overanalyzing tiny changes in Fed language and guessing which of the Fed’s 19 officials put out which forecast.

Warsh is readying to shake things up. He argues the Fed overcommunicates, giving markets too many hints on what it’ll do with interest rates and thus boxing itself in.

Why This Matters

Less Fed guidance could make markets react more sharply to economic data. That may affect stocks, bonds, mortgage rates, and borrowing costs.

Analysts are preparing to be kept a little more in the dark.

"Woe with us! What are we going to do for a living?" joked Ed Yardeni, a veteran Fedwatcher and president of Yardeni Research, in a note to clients.

One risk is that markets become more volatile, analysts say, as less Fed guidance will force investors to prepare for a wider range of scenarios. That could be particularly visible on big days for the market, such as the monthly jobs report release.

"If communication is less regular and less clear, each economic data release and FOMC meeting will carry more information, raising the risk of sudden market moves when policy surprises occur," wrote Mickael Benhaim, a top bond strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

Whether volatility picks up is "the million-dollar question," said Collin Martin, of the Schwab Center for Financial Research. But it all depends on what changes Warsh has in store.

"We've gotten so much transparency for years—for better or for worse, but I think for better," Martin said. "If it were to decline, it's tough to say exactly how the markets would react."

Long-Held View

Warsh, who was sworn into his four-year term as Fed chair on Friday, hasn’t shared detailed plans. But he did summarize his broad view at his Senate confirmation hearing.

"Too many Fed officials, past and present, opine in advance about where they think interest rates should be next meeting, next quarter, next year," Warsh told senators. "I think that's quite unhelpful."

It’s a view he’s long held, dating back to his days as a Fed governor. In a 2006 meeting, he said the central bank needed to "wean the markets from the degree of certainty that we no longer possess."

Fed communications are a "natural thing for a new chair to come in and focus on," said former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who now teaches at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

"His communication approach may differ from the previous chairs. That’s not that unusual," Mester said. "What I’m hoping is that we don’t go backward in terms of transparency. But there are ways you can improve it, no doubt, and I think that’s his intention."

Decades-Long Journey

Those changes could cover every aspect of Fed communications—which today are far more numerous than years past.

For decades after its 1913 founding, the Fed said very little. The shift to a more transparent Fed began under former Chair Alan Greenspan, who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006. Greenspan wasn’t the biggestof clear communication—he once joked that as a central banker, he learned to "mumble with great incoherence."

But the Fed started publishing post-meeting statements in the 1990s—the public previously had to decipher Fed rate changes based on market pricing. It was part of a global shift among central banks to communicate more, as policymakers realized that inflation could be lower if the public understood they were committed to avoiding price spirals.

Former Chair Ben Bernanke, who led the Fed from 2006 to 2014, continued the journey. He started holding press conferences after every other Fed meeting. And the messaging took on greater importance, since the Fed wanted to convince markets it would keep rates at 0% for a long time after the 2008 financial crisis.

His successor, Janet Yellen, played a key role in the Bernanke-era overhaul and shepherded the Fed’s communications around "lift-off," the Fed’s first post-crisis hike. And outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell began holding press conferences after every Fed meeting, rather than quarterly.

Too Much Talking?

Warsh did not commit to holding press conferences at that cadence, telling a senator that "truth seeking is more important than repetition."

"If one has a press conference, one wants to deliver some important news," he said.

Many in markets view Powell’s press conferences as particularly helpful in understanding the Fed, according to a recent Brookings survey of Fedwatchers. Fedwatchers' median grade for Fed communications was a B+, though private-sector respondents generally scored the central bank lower than academics did.

One aspect that some Fedwatchers found less helpful is the barrage of speeches and media interviews from the Fed’s 19 officials. But Martin, of Schwab, said they help him better understand the debate among Fed officials on rate policy—and the indicators each is tracking to see how the economy evolves.

"It is a committee of individuals, so it’s important to listen to each committee member," he said.

Cutting back on Fed officials’ appearances, particularly the 12 regional Fed presidents, may be tricky. Mester, who led the Cleveland Fed from 2014 to 2024, said Fed officials sharing their views at events across their district is part of their "obligation" to the public.

"If I'm in that district, I would want to know … why they may have voted one way or the other," she said. "I think that's an important part of accountability and transparency."

That’s not to say they can’t do it differently. Mester raised an old Fed norm that Warsh could try to re-emphasize—first share the FOMC’s view and then explain your own position. That could help reduce the risk that a headline from one Fed official’s remarks is interpreted as the Fed’s overall view.

‘Hotel California problem’

She also suggested the Fed can do a bit more talking in its post-meeting statement—explaining in more detail how it sees the economy evolving, the risks ahead and how the Fed may respond.

When she started at the Fed in 2014, the Fed’s statement had 757 words. Its latest statement has 244 words. Fewer words means more scrutiny on each individual change, she said, leading to a "Hotel California problem."

“Once you get a word in there, it’s hard to get it out—because everyone’s going to look at it,” she said.

Language proved critical at the most recent Fed meeting. Three FOMC members voted against the post-meeting statement, disagreeing with its inclusion of the phrase “additional adjustments.” Since the last adjustment was a rate cut, that language is a hint to markets that the Fed viewed an additional cut as more likely than a hike.

The average person wouldn’t have understood that the Fed’s phrasing showed a bias toward cutting, Mester said.

"To me, that shows that communications could be improved," she said. "Because an average person reading that, I suspect, would not know why there's a bias."

Shares of the big-box retailer took a massive hit following its first-quarter earnings report.
Credit: Photo by Scott Olson / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Walmart shares have fallen since CFO John Daid Rainey said that while the retailer's high-income customers were spending with "confidence," its gas sales suggested that the budget-conscious were "perhaps navigating financial distress."
• A bad day for Walmart's stock took a chunk out of its year-to-date gains, with it now underperforming the broader market. Some analysts see a buying opportunity.

Walmart’s stock is acting a bit like a shopping cart with a wonky wheel right now: It's having trouble staying on course.

Shares of the big-box retailer took a big hit this week in the wake of its first-quarter earnings report. CFO John David Rainey struck a cautious tone about Walmart's (WMT) budget-conscious consumers, saying the quantity of gas they bought in the first quarter suggested they were "navigating financial distress." That large grocery rival Kroger (KR) said it planned on testing price cuts to compete with low-cost retailers didn't help.

All told, downbeat sentiment knocked Walmart's stock, which was handily outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026 up until its earnings show-and-tell, lower. As of Friday's close, it's slightly underperforming the benchmark index.

WHY IT MATTERS TO YOU

Big-box retailers' earnings are often a signal for how well Americans at large are doing. That Walmart sees signs of stress in their gas sales suggest that higher prices at the pump has impacted spending habits.

So now what? Wall Street analysts defended the stock after its pullback, reiterating their positive overall view of its business. If anything, they said, the retail giant stands to gain greater market share the more consumers feel pinched.

"We think share gains will accelerate with a price conscious consumer," BofA's Christopher Nardone said in a Thursday report. He also said Walmart is "poised to react to cost inflation if needed." Nardone reiterated his "buy" rating on the stock, though he trimmed his price target by $6 to $144.

JPMorgan analysts led by Christopher Horvers said Walmart’s recent slide looks like a “buying opportunity"; they have a buy-equivalent rating on the stock. And Deutsche Bank Research's Krisztina Katai, who maintained a neutral stance on the stock, said Walmart is "well-positioned to execute on its strategy, even within a challenging retail landscape."

Of the 16 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha who cover Walmart, 14 are bullish and two have "hold" ratings, effectively a neutral stance. The average price target on the stock is about $141, implying upside of roughly 17% from Friday's close.

The stock, which has risen more than 26% over the past year, looks richly priced to some eyes. Deutsche Bank said the shares were trading at roughly 46 times 2026 consensus EPS estimates, compared to their trailing twelve-month average of 36.

Walmart "had a good quarter, right? Like, it's hard to imagine that they're getting the beating that they're getting other than the valuation is difficult to sort of rationalize," former Walmart U.S. chief Bill Simon said in an interview with CNBC yesterday.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the close of Friday's trading.