INVX 11/10/2566: No AI meeting today🙏/ SCGP cut target price to Bt.51 and E’23 by 20% from major turnaround/ Prefer KTB GULF / Flows Buy GRM Play BCP TOP / Short recovering Consumer Finance Prefer MTC TIDLOR and Tech Prefer KCE HANA vs Flows Sell Food Beverage Commerce Conmat Property CPF loss 3 Q’23 Earnings Bt -2.3 bn/CBG/ SCC/SCGP

SCGP cut target price to Bt 51/Cut 2023 E’ by 20% from major turnaround in 4Q’23 and book turnaround expense Bt 100 mn in 3 Q’23

SCGP – 3Q23 Preview : Expect 3Q23F net profit of Bt1.3bn (-29.5% YoY -12.8% QoQ) on revenue -4.5% QoQ but gross margin +137bp YoY +10bp QoQ to 18.3% (from lower raw material cost and coal cost).

1) a -5% QoQ fall in Testliner price index (the key indicator for packaging paper export price to China from ASEAN)

2) continued weak packaging demand in Indonesia (14% of SCGP’s revenue)

3) 2-week major maintenance shutdown of its pulp plan (cut volume by 20-30% plus related maintenance cost of ~Bt100mn).

Thus we cut 2023/24 by -20%/-5% with lower revenue forecast by -16% for 2023.