INVX Morning Call

INVX 13/12/2024: Today XR EA ( 1:1@Bt 2 )

Program Trading Buy CCET vs Sell MOSHI EE

Research : Stocks of the Day Buy ADVANC and CPAXT

Auto sector : Underweight : SAT STANLY vs Neutral AH

Flows Buy Tech DELTA ( หลุด cash balance)

Buy SET50/100 : CCET PR9

Sell Energy BCP TOP and export Fx risk TU ITC

Factor to watch

Tuesday 17 Dec. 2024 :

Expected SET50/100 announcement

FED FOMC meeting expected 0.25% interest rate cut on 17-18 Dec2024

Wed.18 Dec 2024:

Expected BOT to cut rate by 0.25% + impact on SET +19 points

Thursday 19 Dec 2024

BOJ meeting

Friday 20 Dec 2024

FTSE Rebalancing Index effective

INVX 9/12/2024: SET Index 1450 level *** waiting Interest rate cut and Dec. book closing /Jan. Effect/ FIDF cut +++ seasonal flows Buy Bank KBANK SCB BBL KTB

NKT IPO final price Bt 7.80

Regional Flows Buy Tech vs Sell Property and

Healthcare / Strong Inflows in Taiwan , Indo and India vs Sell Korea

Program Trading Buy THCOM, YGG, GIFT

Stocks of the Day Prefer GPSC and BBL

Research : GVREIT Neutral tp Bt 6.20 vs Prefer LHHotel REITs , FTREIT and DIF

Factor to watch :

Wed.11/12/2024 :

IVF ศูนย์รักษาผู้มีบุตรยาก IPO Bt 3.10 listing in SET/Services / Advisor : Kingsford

มาตราการแก้หนี้ + Bank

ประชุมไตรภาคี สรุปค่ารักษาพยาบาล RW Bt 12,000

Thurs.12/12/2024 Gov. Stimulus Packages: E-Receipts

Fri.13/12/2025: XR EA 1:1 Bt 2.00 and XW 3:1 W @ Bt 4.00

Tue.17-Wed.18 /12/2024 : FED to cut rate by 0.25%

Wed.18/12/2024: BOT MPC exp. Interest rate cut by 0.25% *** positive to SET Index by 19 points

INVX 6/12/2024: Funds Flow Buy small cap and Foreign net sell big cap.

Research : Stocks of the day Buy AOT and BBL

Healthcare sector : Co-payment impact limited at 2-%-3%of total revenue and 2%-4% of core earnings in 2025 for private hospitals. To picks Prefer BDMS tp Bt 36

Commerce Prefer CPALL tp Bt 81, better Sales and Margin with upside on E-Receipt stimulus package on Dec12,2024.

Program Trading Buy only RBF and NETBAY

Mkt Concerned on VAT 15% ( Negative impact on Hotel and consumer sector ) vs Corporare tax cut to add Earnings(+5%) and boost SET Index ( mkt exp. 100 points)

INVX 4/12/2024 : SET Index 1450 and waiting for Dec18 to cut rate by 0.25% to add more 19 points to 1480

Foreign Flows Net Buy Equity and TFEX

Investment Theme :

Data Centre +AI play + GULF INTUCH ADVANC / INSET ITEL

E-Receipt ( 12 Dec24 ) play + CPALL HMPRO

Tourism High season +MINT ERW BDMS

Short Recovering play + GRM high season +BCP TOP BSRC SPRC

Government Debt restructuring (11 Dec 24) +AEONTS KTC

Selling pressure on

-EA Capital raising and Earnings dilution ( XR 13 Dec24 ratio 1:1@Bt 2)

-MONO mkt concerned on stock manipulated investigation

-SAWAD debt repayment and denied on Politician participation

INVX 3/12/2024: EA ประกาศเพิ่มทุน 1:1@ 2 บาท และ3 หุ้น:1 warrant ราคาใช้สิทธิ์ 4 บาท *** XR 13 ธค 2024 —-

Today INVX Event CPALL IR Group Conference at 11.00 MS Team

Funds Flow Theme AI Data Centre : Tech and Telecom Play to welcome NVIDIA CEO to join AI Vision in Thailand on Wed. 4 Dec.2024

Thursday 5 Dec. 24 : OPEC meeting

Program Trading : Sell EA ( ขายหุ้นซื้อคืน 29 พย-6 ธค24)

Buy CK ( ซื้อหุ้นคืนเริ่ม2 ธค24- 1 มิย 25)

Commerce sector : E-Receipt play ( cabinet meeting 12 Dec24) Prefer CRC HMPRO

Stocks of the Day Prefer AWC and HMPRO , positive 4Q24 Earnings +y/q

Research : BSRC Upgraded to Neutral and raises target to Bt 8 ( from Bt 7 and Underperform)

INVX 29/11/2024: Flows shifts to Bond ***GS Upgraded Bind to Overweight vs Prefer USS&P500 and Gold to Oil vs Underweight Europe

Today IPO SNPS Bt 4.20 listing in SET/Personal . sector

: SET50/100 last day calculation / exp. announcement mid Dec.24 and effective on Jan2,2025

SET50 คาดเข้า BANPU CCET COM7 SAWAD/ ออก BCP CENTEL EA TIDLOR

SET100 เปลี่ยนตัวเข้าจาก COCOCO เป็น TVO ค่ะ

คาดเข้า AURA CCET JTS PR9 TVO/ ออก MBK RBF SKY TIPH TOA

***EA ประกาศขายหุ้นซื้อคืน 16,658,600 หุ้น เริ่ม 29 พยัง-6 ธค 2024***

ปัจจัยติดตาม

9 ธค 2024 คุณสนธินัดชุมนุมหน้าสภา

12 ธค 2024 E-Receipt play + CPALL CPAXT CRC HMPRO

18 ธค FOMC and BOT MPC meeting INVX and GS คาดปรับลดดอกเบี้ย 0.25% *** ตลาดกังวลอาจเลื่อนเวลาการลดดอกเบี้ย

SET consider for SETFF free-float benchmark

INVX Morning Call 28/11/2024

INVX 27/11/2024: EA ประกาศขายหุ้นที่ซื้อคืน เริ่ม ศุกร์ 29 พย.-6 ธค2024 จำนวน 16,658,600 หุ้น

: TU- ผู้บริหารมีแจ้งรายงานการขายหุ้นเพิ่มเติม (คุณธีรพงศ์ จันศิริ)

8/11/2024: 14.95 บาท*7.2ล้านหุ้น = 108 ลบ.

14/11/2024: 14.26บาท*2.5ล้านหุ้น = 36 ล้านบาท

22/11/2024: 13.8บาท*2ล้านหุ้น = 26 ล้านบาท

การขายหุ้นของผู้บริหารต่อเนื่องสามสัปดาห์ (รวม 170 ลบ.) อาจทำให้เกิด negative sentiment ต่อราคาหุ้นในระยะสั้น

Analyst meeting today

9.30-11.00 PR9

14.00 AH

Stocks of the Day Prefer CPAXT and AOT

Program Trading Sell EA. CCET / Buy RCL RBF MALEE

Key Factors :

Today 27/11/2024 Indonesia Election

Friday 29/11/2024 SNPS IPO Bt 4.20/ SET/Personal

THAI Airways meeting

SET 50/100 calculation

Dec12,2024: Mkt expectation for E-Receipts + Commerce Prefer CPALL CPAXT CRC HMPRO

Dec18,2024 : BOT MPC to cut 0.25% interest rate to push SET Index +19 points

GS retains OW Equities for both 3m/12m with lower returns, tactically OW US, some of MXAPJ and Japan vs UW Europe.

Upgrade Bonds to OW as steeper curves pointing to excess returns vs cash, forecasting 10Y-UST yields at 4.25% by end-2025.

UW Credits on severe valuation constraints. Neutral Commodities with the highest conviction in Gold, targeting $3000 by end-2025.

# CPAXT - Led by operational improvement & synergy : We estimate 4QTD SSSG of +3% YoY on avg in B2B and B2C (vs B2B +1.5%, B2C +2.3% in 3Q24) backed by adding fresh food and omnichannel sales and a small boost from stimulus.

EBIT margin is expected to widen YoY further on 1) more high-margin products, i.e. fresh food and house brand products; 2) good control of SG&A/sales on earlier closure of non-performing small B2C stores and a slower rise in omnichannel exp.

CPAXT targets Bt5bn in synergy from amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, Bt2.5bn from sales and margin improvement and Bt2.5bn from capex reduction.

We conservatively factor in synergy of Bt1.7bn on the P&L post amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, 3-4% p.a. core earnings growth adding.

We forecast CPAXT to grow +19% YoY in 2025 (vs +15% for sector). Outperform TP Bt41.0.

INVX 26/11/2024 : Flows to Sell Energy Oil down PTT PTTEP TOP BCP vs Buy Tourism AOT BH

4Q24 Earnings play +Q/Y +: GULF high Earnings record and upside from INTUCH Amalgamation

Stocks of the Day Prefer GULF and FTREIT ( DY’24 at 7.1% and ‘25 at 7.3%)

Program Trading Sell BCP( expectation to be removed from SETESG and SET50)

SET 50 /100

Play ( calculation till Fri.29 Nov.24 and announcement in mid Dec24)

SET 50 exp.to Add BANPU COM7 SAWAD CCET / Delete BCP CENTEL EA TIDLOR

SET100 exp. to Add AURA CCET COCOCO JTS PR9

/ Delete MBK RBF SKY TIPH TOA

Factors to watch :

Wed.27 Nov. 24 : Indonesia Election

Fri. 29 Nov.24 : IPO SNPS Bt 4.20 to list in SET/ Person

: THAI meeting

: SET 50/100 last calculation date

: Nov24 Book closing

INVX 25/11/2024: Stocks of the Day Prefer Gulf and BBL

Program Trading Buy AMATA WHA ( Data Centre) /VGI COCOCO/ RBF

Fund Flow : Regional weekly flow Buy KOREA Singapore,Philippines / Sector Outperformer Transportation and Materials

Factor to watch

: Today MSCI ปรับพอร์ต - SCGP TQM / + CCET

Analyst meeting CCET

Wed 27 Nov. 24 Indonesia Election

Fri.29 Nov.24

: THAI meeting

SET50/100 calculation

IPO SNPS Bt 4.20 listing in SET/ Person.

Gov Stimulus E-Receipt : mkt expecting to be announced on Dec12,2024

🎯 Update News: การปรับหุ้นเข้าออกดัชนี MSCI รอบเดือนพ.ย. 2567 มีผล ณ เวลาปิดตลาดของวันที่ 25 พ.ย. 2567

🔸 MSCI Global Standard Index

ไม่มีหุ้นเข้าใหม่

ออก 1 หุ้น - SCGP

🔸 MSCI Global Small Cap Index

เข้า 1 หุ้น - CCET

ออก 1 หุ้น - TQM

🔸 MSCI จะมีการประกาศทบทวนดัชนีในครั้งถัดไปในวันที่ 11 ก.พ. 2568

#InnovestXResearch