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INVX Morning Call 27/11/2024
INVX 27/11/2024: EA ประกาศขายหุ้นที่ซื้อคืน เริ่ม ศุกร์ 29 พย.-6 ธค2024 จำนวน 16,658,600 หุ้น
: TU- ผู้บริหารมีแจ้งรายงานการขายหุ้นเพิ่มเติม (คุณธีรพงศ์ จันศิริ)
8/11/2024: 14.95 บาท*7.2ล้านหุ้น = 108 ลบ.
14/11/2024: 14.26บาท*2.5ล้านหุ้น = 36 ล้านบาท
22/11/2024: 13.8บาท*2ล้านหุ้น = 26 ล้านบาท
การขายหุ้นของผู้บริหารต่อเนื่องสามสัปดาห์ (รวม 170 ลบ.) อาจทำให้เกิด negative sentiment ต่อราคาหุ้นในระยะสั้น
Analyst meeting today
9.30-11.00 PR9
14.00 AH
Stocks of the Day Prefer CPAXT and AOT
Program Trading Sell EA. CCET / Buy RCL RBF MALEE
Key Factors :
Today 27/11/2024 Indonesia Election
Friday 29/11/2024 SNPS IPO Bt 4.20/ SET/Personal
THAI Airways meeting
SET 50/100 calculation
Dec12,2024: Mkt expectation for E-Receipts + Commerce Prefer CPALL CPAXT CRC HMPRO
Dec18,2024 : BOT MPC to cut 0.25% interest rate to push SET Index +19 points
GS retains OW Equities for both 3m/12m with lower returns, tactically OW US, some of MXAPJ and Japan vs UW Europe.
Upgrade Bonds to OW as steeper curves pointing to excess returns vs cash, forecasting 10Y-UST yields at 4.25% by end-2025.
UW Credits on severe valuation constraints. Neutral Commodities with the highest conviction in Gold, targeting $3000 by end-2025.
# CPAXT - Led by operational improvement & synergy : We estimate 4QTD SSSG of +3% YoY on avg in B2B and B2C (vs B2B +1.5%, B2C +2.3% in 3Q24) backed by adding fresh food and omnichannel sales and a small boost from stimulus.
EBIT margin is expected to widen YoY further on 1) more high-margin products, i.e. fresh food and house brand products; 2) good control of SG&A/sales on earlier closure of non-performing small B2C stores and a slower rise in omnichannel exp.
CPAXT targets Bt5bn in synergy from amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, Bt2.5bn from sales and margin improvement and Bt2.5bn from capex reduction.
We conservatively factor in synergy of Bt1.7bn on the P&L post amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, 3-4% p.a. core earnings growth adding.
We forecast CPAXT to grow +19% YoY in 2025 (vs +15% for sector). Outperform TP Bt41.0.
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By Jarivun AiempichitkijkarnINVX 27/11/2024: EA ประกาศขายหุ้นที่ซื้อคืน เริ่ม ศุกร์ 29 พย.-6 ธค2024 จำนวน 16,658,600 หุ้น
: TU- ผู้บริหารมีแจ้งรายงานการขายหุ้นเพิ่มเติม (คุณธีรพงศ์ จันศิริ)
8/11/2024: 14.95 บาท*7.2ล้านหุ้น = 108 ลบ.
14/11/2024: 14.26บาท*2.5ล้านหุ้น = 36 ล้านบาท
22/11/2024: 13.8บาท*2ล้านหุ้น = 26 ล้านบาท
การขายหุ้นของผู้บริหารต่อเนื่องสามสัปดาห์ (รวม 170 ลบ.) อาจทำให้เกิด negative sentiment ต่อราคาหุ้นในระยะสั้น
Analyst meeting today
9.30-11.00 PR9
14.00 AH
Stocks of the Day Prefer CPAXT and AOT
Program Trading Sell EA. CCET / Buy RCL RBF MALEE
Key Factors :
Today 27/11/2024 Indonesia Election
Friday 29/11/2024 SNPS IPO Bt 4.20/ SET/Personal
THAI Airways meeting
SET 50/100 calculation
Dec12,2024: Mkt expectation for E-Receipts + Commerce Prefer CPALL CPAXT CRC HMPRO
Dec18,2024 : BOT MPC to cut 0.25% interest rate to push SET Index +19 points
GS retains OW Equities for both 3m/12m with lower returns, tactically OW US, some of MXAPJ and Japan vs UW Europe.
Upgrade Bonds to OW as steeper curves pointing to excess returns vs cash, forecasting 10Y-UST yields at 4.25% by end-2025.
UW Credits on severe valuation constraints. Neutral Commodities with the highest conviction in Gold, targeting $3000 by end-2025.
# CPAXT - Led by operational improvement & synergy : We estimate 4QTD SSSG of +3% YoY on avg in B2B and B2C (vs B2B +1.5%, B2C +2.3% in 3Q24) backed by adding fresh food and omnichannel sales and a small boost from stimulus.
EBIT margin is expected to widen YoY further on 1) more high-margin products, i.e. fresh food and house brand products; 2) good control of SG&A/sales on earlier closure of non-performing small B2C stores and a slower rise in omnichannel exp.
CPAXT targets Bt5bn in synergy from amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, Bt2.5bn from sales and margin improvement and Bt2.5bn from capex reduction.
We conservatively factor in synergy of Bt1.7bn on the P&L post amalgamation in 4Q24-2027, 3-4% p.a. core earnings growth adding.
We forecast CPAXT to grow +19% YoY in 2025 (vs +15% for sector). Outperform TP Bt41.0.
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