INVX Morning Call

INVX Morning Call 28/10/2024

MASTER moved to SET today

TRUE High Conviction list, raised target price to Bt 15 from Bt 13, better Ebitda and ARPU growth. More Upside on Data Centre play. Overweight Telecom TRUE and ADVANC

BBL sector pick target price Bt 180, higher NIM and Dividend payout from Current 34% to 40%. Only BBL cut deposit and lending rate

AP Outperform tp Bt 12.90, Earnings preview 3Q24 NP Bt 1.42 bn -16%yoy/+12%qoq. Lower GM but higher JV contribution. Better 4Q24 and higher backlog in 2025

STANLY Underperform tp Bt 192, beat 2Q25 Earnings from extra items (high dividend income and equity income) . Valuation is unattractive

INVX Morning Cal25/10/2024

Investment Theme : Nvidia investment Positive AMATA WHA***AMATA Buy tp Bt 32.30, backlog new high till Year 2568 and upgraded Earnings2025 by 5%+++Land Sales beat 2,000 raid target +(4Q24 more 500 rais) to 2,500 rais record high

Tourism sector : Negative news on tourism tax and MINT 3 Q24 extra Fx loss $ 2,400 mn( hedging $US Perp )to offset 3Q24 Core profit Bt 2,700 mn to be NP Bt 304 mn-80% yoy/qoq. MINT Outperform tp Bt 36,-1SD

Power Sector - GPSC and-BGIM from Minister of Energy reconsidered to review Renew. Bidding phase2

Fund Flows : Sell Energy Bank Commerce and Tourism

vs Buy IE and Food

Food : 3 Q24 Earnings high from wider margin and lower feed cost Prefer CPF Outperform tp Bt 29,sector pick vs Outperform BTG tp Bt 28, GFPT tp Bt 16 and TU tp Bt 18

Today 3Q24 results announcement : DELTA and TRUE

Analyst meeting 25/10/2024: BBL 14.00 / TRUE 19.30

INVX Morning Call 24/10/2024

Fund Flows Buy USD US Equity vs Neutral Japan GDP24 growth downgraded to 0% ( Japan Election on Sunday 27,2024 )

GS expected THB/USD 12 m at $34

Program Trading Sell AAI INTUCH EA CCET

Research : Interest cut put pressure on Banks’NIM

Neutral Bank sector pick only BBL tp Bt 180( today effective deposit and lending rate cut and BBL Analyst meeting on Friday 25 Oct 2024 at 14.00 Physical)

WHA Outperform tp Bt 6.60, Earnings 3Q24 preview Bt 727 mn(+16.8% yoy/ -44% qoq but high in 4 Q24. FDI and data centre play .

SNNP weak 3Q24 Earnings preview Bt 1380 mn,-7.1%yoy/-8.3% qoq to recover in 4Q24. Cut target price to Bt 17.60 from Bt 19.20 with lower PE from 26x to 24x

Analyst meeting : Friday 25 Oct 2024 :

14.00 BBL

19.30 TRUE

INVX Morning Call 22/10/2024: IPO TMAN ( ยาแก้ไอน้ำดำไอยรา ยาดมโพรโพลิส) Bt 16.30 listed in SET / Person

Banking sector : Negative impact from lower lending rate by 0.25% effective on Nov.1,2024 ( SCB, KBANK ) impact NIM by 7-10 bps and Earnings by 5%-10%.

**^Downgraded KTB to Neutral from Outperform with unchanged target price at Bt 22

***KBANK Neutral /raised target price to Bt 160 from Bt 145 as higher mark to market gain

***Today Analyst meeting 10.00 KKP/ 13.00 SNNP/ 15.00 WHA

***Program Trading Buy CCET

***Fund Flows Buy Gulf INTUCH ADVANC THCOM / BTS BEM/ CCET HANA KCE vs Sell Energy Oil , Commerce, Auto, Tourism

*** Key Factors :

5 Nov24 US Election with Trump poll Positive USD US Equity and Gold 3/6/12 m at 2750/2900/3040

6 Nov24 MSCI announcement : mkt talk to add MTC IVL to be effective on 26 Nov24

18 Dec24 BOT MPC expected to cut rate by 0.25% to impact positive ( save financing cost of listed companies ) on SET Index by 19 points

INVX 21/10/2024: Foreign Flows Buy Bank Tech Telecom vs Sell Consumer Auto

*** Program Trading Sell ADVANC VGI SINGER SGC***Research 3Q24 Earnings season for Bank Prefer BBL KTB KKP

**^Key Catalyst BOT MPC 18 Dec 2024 to cut rate by 0.25% to push SET Index by 19 points

*** Warning for OSP 3Q24 Earnings to book impairment loss Bt -1 bn from Myanmar divestment, core profit Bt 616 mn and 4Q24 stronger sales ,-1 SD Outperform tp Bt 29

*** Last Sunday 20 Oct 24 Indonesia Election

***Next Sunday 24 Oct 24 Japan Election

INVX Morning Call 18/10/2024

Today 18/10/2024 iNVX Event Energy and Utilities Sector / Group meeting / MS at 15.00-16.00

Today XD AEONTS Bt 2.55

Program Trading Buy GULF INTUCH. VGI

Flows Buy GULF INTUCH ADVANC THCOM and TRUE

Buy Tech DELTA (AI),CCET( SET 100 addition)

Buy Telecom ADVANC TRUE THCOM

Cautious China Play Petrochem Energy Oil and SCC

Asset Allocation GS Prefers Gold (3/6/12 m at $ 2750/2900/3040) to Oil( China weak demand )

INVX Morning Call 27/10/2024***INVX and GS expected more 0.25% rate cut on Dec18,2024 *** impact positive on SET Index by 19 points ( Mkt EPS +1.3%)

Sector benefit + Consumer Fin. and Property

*** Foreign net Buy both Equity and TFEX / SET 50 / 100 play ( calculated till Nov.30 and announcement mid Dec2024/effective on early Jan25).

SET50 Add BANPU COM7 SAWAD TCAP /Delete BCP CENTEL EA TIDLOR /

SET100 Add CCET COCOCO PR9 PTG/ Delete MBK RBF TIPH TOA ***

IPO TMAN Bt 16.30 listing on Tuesday 22 Oct 2024 SET / Pharmaceutical ยาแก้ไอน้ำตราไอยรา และยาดมโพรโพลิส ***

INVX Morning Call 16/10/2024

INVX Morning Call 3/10/2567

CPAXT กลับมาเทรดวันนี้ Outperform tp Bt 40 คาดการณ์กำไร 3Q-4Q24 ดีขึ้น และชัดเจนมากขึ้นในกลางปี 2568 ได้รับประโยชน์จากมาตราการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจภาครัฐ คาดหวังจะมี โครงการรัฐเพิ่มคล้ายยิ่งใช้ยิ่งได้หรือคนละครึ่งปลายปีนี้

Overweight Commerce Prefer CPALL CPAXT BJC HMPRO GLOBAL

Overweight Utilities +Upgraded GPSC to Outperform to Bt 60 from Neutral, most benefit from renew. Phase2 bidding 3,668 MW and PDP 2024

Sector Pick : GULF outperform tp Bt 70 and GPSC Outperform tp Bt 60 vs BGRIM Neutral tp Bt 24.50

Overweight Telecom Prefer TRUE tp Bt 13.00 and ADVANC tp Bt 300 for 1Q25 auction play with lower financing cost from debenture rollover / Data Centre play

Stocks of the Day Prefer CPAXT and DELTA

Program Trading Sell AAV BA ( bath weakening) JTS ( weak crypto) vs Buy only INSET ( Google investment trading)

INVX 2/10/2567 : Positive Vayupak Fund Inflow and Google Investment push SET Index to 1450-1500

GS upgraded Gold 3/6/12 m to $ 2750/2900/3040

GS 12 m Overweight Equities and Commodities vs Neutral Cash/ Bond

US Election Play ( historical track record 3 m after US Election) impact positive on Thai Financial / Property/ Transportation : Buy AOT AP SIRI BBL CPALL GULF

Stocks of the day Prefer PTTEP and GULF

Factors to watch : Thursday 3 Oct : CPAXT to resume trading ( 1:0.9856)/ Gulf 1.00519+ INTUCH 1.07380 EGM voting

: Friday 4 Oct IPO OKJ Bt 6.7/ Food/ SET