INVX Morning Call

INVX 11/11/2024

Fund Flows GS Asia PacWeekly Kickstart : MXAPJ +2% led by ChinaA ( Yuan 10 bn Stimulus package> mkt exp.) and Taiwan / Sector Tech outperformed Energy

GS Buy WHA higher land Sales , Bt 1 bn divestment revenue and Data Centre play. Raised target price to Bt 6.50 from 6.00

GS cut target price TOP from Bt 67 to Bt 65, weaker Ebitda from larger than expected one-off inventory losses, stronger Thai Baht and higher Opex

Stocks of the Day : Buy CPALL and LHHotel

Research

KEX Underperform tp Bt 1.70, negative view with unclear sign of recovery

THRE Outperform with cut target price to Bt 0.70 from

Bt 0.80

QH Underperform with raise target price to Bt 1.97 from Bt 1.89

INVX 8/11/2024 SET alerts for DELTA Trading as 91xP/E

Program Trading Buy PTTGC vs Sell BH KCE SCGP BYD

Flows Buy Bank ( FIDF fee cut benefit) SCB KBANK BBL KTB ). and Theme Data Centre ADVANC TRUE / AMATA INSET

Switching flows

Buy CPF ( better CPALL and CPAXT with

Low Fx THB volatility) vs Sell TU negative meeting on MANAGEMENT cut sales target24 to 3%-4% from 4%-5% and revised up SG&A / sales to 12.5%-13% from 12%

Buy CCET vs Sell SCGP on MSCI play

Research

CPAXT Outperform / raised target price to Bt 41 from Bt 40, better Sales&margin and MAKRO core profit first turn positive

BCP cut target price to Bt 44 from Bt 46, Outperform

OR cut target price to Bt 22 from Bt 24 from stock and Fx loss

LPN cut target price to 2.30 from Bt 2.40,Underperform from GM new low and 2025 to sell low rise stock to impact margin by -2%

INVX 7/11/2024

Today INVX and GS expected FED to cut 25 bps

Trump Win impact 3 month Overweight US USD and Bitcoin vs THB/$US depreciation at 35-35.50

Flows Buy Tech DELTA HANA KCE CCET and Healthare BDMS vs Sell Bank and Consumer Finance TIDLOR ( weak Earnings and SET 50 deletion)

Research Downgrade THANI to Underperform / cut target price to Bt 1.66 / Cut target price PTTGC to Bt 35

🎯 Update News: การปรับหุ้นเข้าออกดัชนี MSCI รอบเดือนพ.ย. 2567 มีผล ณ เวลาปิดตลาดของวันที่ 25 พ.ย. 2567

🔸 MSCI Global Standard Index

ไม่มีหุ้นเข้าใหม่

ออก 1 หุ้น - SCGP

🔸 MSCI Global Small Cap Index

เข้า 1 หุ้น - CCET

ออก 1 หุ้น - TQM

🔸 MSCI จะมีการประกาศทบทวนดัชนีในครั้งถัดไปในวันที่ 11 ก.พ. 2568

INVX 6/11/2024 Foreign net Buy both Equity and TFEX

Today MSCI announcement/ effective on Nov.26,24

Today IPO MPJ Bt 6.00, MAI/ Logistic บริหารจานตู้คอนเทนเนอร์

GS alerts for 12 m Neutral US and Asia ex Japan vs Neutral Japan vs Underweight Europe

SET Index targets at 1500 in Dec24 ( more 25 bps interest cut on Dec18,24 and Gov.stimulus package) and 2025 at 1550 by INVX vs GS 1600

Theme Data Centre Play

Buy INSET tp Bt 3.50 > mkt consensus target at 3.20 with better 3Q24 Earnings and higher growth

Buy ADVANC TRUE and WHA AMATA

Program Trading Buy DELTA CCET BTC

Fund Flows Buy Tech DELTA HANA KCE

Buy Energy PTT PTTEP TOP( 3Q Earnings bottom /GS expected Oil Brent 3/6/12@ $77/77/75

Buy Bank BBL SCB TTB ( FIDF fee cut) and Consumer Finance MTC SAWAD TIDLOR KTC SAWAD ( Gov. มาตราการแก้หนี้)

High Conviction list Outperform HMPRO Outperform tp Bt 13, -2 SD ,Gov. benefit stimulus package with better SSSg

INVX 5/11/2024

Today Thai Cabinet meeting with agenda Property stimulus and Tourism

IPO iROYAL Bt 6.50 listing in MAI/ Service today

US Election impact : worst case assumption impact Thai GDP25 by 0.5% from 3% and negative to Tech

Warnings Energy sector : weak 3Q24 Earnings from stock Loss : Prefer BCP and PTT Outperform

Tourism sector : weak 3Q24 Earnings qoq from seasonal low except AWC sector pick +qoq/+yoy , High Conviction list tp Bt 4.40

INVX 4/11/2024 : SET Index targets at 1450-1480

Program Trading Buy Rabbit / Sell COCOCO PROEN INSET BTC

Regional Flows : Buy Telecom ( INVX Overweight ADVANC tp Bt 300 and TRUE ) and Property ( Cabiet meeting on Tuesday 5 Nov.24, mkt exp. Gov. stimulus package) vs Sell Healthcare, Tech, Consumer

Research : Finance sector 3Q24 Earnings preview to be flat QoQ with higher ECL ( Outperform MTC TIDLOR AEONT: )

MSCI review announcement on Wed.5/11/2024 : mkt expected to add MTC IVL

US Election on 5 Nov.24 : Mkt talked on Tariff cut / impact DELTA TU

IPO IROYAL Bt 6.50, MAI/ Service on Tue. 5/11/2024

IPO MPJ Bt 6.00, MAI / logistic on Wed.6,2024

Key Events

Monday 4,2024: Board of BOT meeting at 14.00

Tuesday 5,2024: US Election/ Thai cabinet meeting/ IPO iROYAL listing

Wed. 6,2024: MSCI announcement/ IPo MPJ IPO listing

Thursday 7,2024: SCC Mgt Group meeting / MS Team at 13.00-14.00

INVX Morning Call 1/11/2024

Flows

Buy Tech AI and Data Centre play +DELTA KCE HANA Buy Telecom overweight ADVANC

Buy Energy PTTEP BCP BSRC , positive news on OPEC+ to delay supply increased by more month

Program Trading Buy PLANB KCE DOHOME COM7

vs Sell BAM( 2days consecutive sell)

BAM downgraded to Underperform from Neutral tp Bt 7, weak 3 Q24 Earnings yoy/qoq : lower cash collection/ weak NPA sale vs higher ECL

Today INVX published Databook ( mkt summary) and SET Event chart both Thai and English version ka

INVX Morning Call 31/10/2024:

Investment Theme :Data Centre ( DELTA INSET) and SET50/100 new list ( calculation till end Nov24 /announcement in mid Dec24 / effective Early Jan25)

SET 50 COM7 and SET 100. PR9

Research :

SCC 3 Q24 Earnings weaker than mkt exp and 9 m Earnings accounted 69% of FY24 with 4 Q24 weakest quarter from LSP interest expense and impairment . Neutral tp Bt 260

BCH 3Q24 Earnings preview core profit Bt 474 mn buy mkt concerned on lower Kuwaiti patients and no conclusion on IPD and SC services revenue. Valuation -1 SD Outperform tp Bt 21

INVX Invitation : โค้งสุดท้ายเลือกตั้งสหรัฐ ใครจะมา? ไทยจะได้จะเสียอย่างไร? (Group meeting; MS Team)

Date : Thursday 31, Oct 2024

Time : 16.00 – 17.00

Speaker :           

Dr. Piyasak (Austin)

Join the meeting now

https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_NTExZjFhMTgtN2E1Mi00Y2Y4LWI0YWItYWI0ZjJiOGI5MzJh%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2245202dee-4088-4e8c-8ebd-c01f56740e8f%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%227067516c-a5a8-4c1d-96cf-f266d1dcba1f%22%7d

INVX Morning Call 30/10/2024

MktTalk 30/10/2024 Entertainment Complex play

UTA: BA BTS STECON คาดการณ์ เป็น หนึ่งในผู้สนใจและมีโอกาสได้ดีลนี้

US Tariff/ Tax impact : Potential negative to DELTA and TU

Research : Stocks of the Day

Prefer WHA Data Centre Play and strong FDI and Backlog, best 4Q24 Earnings +Earnings growth24 12.7% and 16% in 2025

GLOBAL , 3Q24 Earnings miss from Fx and margin but better SSSg and Steel price recovery in 4 Q24. Outperform tp 18.50

HMPRO Outperform tp Bt 13, -2SD 3Q24 Earnings in line with Fx loss Bt 42 mn. Cut E’24 by 3% but better 4Q24 Earnings from better margin and SSSg

SCGP 3Q24 Earnings in line but weaker than mkt expected but better 4 Q24 Earnings. Outperform tp Bt 38

Program Trading Buy NEX SEI BTC vs Sell KCE HTEC

Europe negative impact : GS Underweight Europe,weaker Econ - KCE IVL and MINT

INVX Morning Call 29/10/2024

Program Trading :

Buy PTTGC non core asset divestment vs Sell TOP CFP expenses risk

Buy CCET SET100 addition vs Sell DELTA 2025 US tariff / tax risk

Buy BTS ,successful capital raising: Trading buy vs Prefer BEM

Research : Stocks of the Day Prefer BBL ( THAI Earnings recovery and relisted play and better NIM and Dividend payout from 34% to 40%) and TASCO better 3Q24 Earnings both yoy/qoq and Budget spending play

US Tariff/ Tax risk in 2025: DELTA and TU

Tourism sector pick : AWC and MINT vs ERW weak 3 Q24 Earnings preview , Neutral tp Bt 4.60

Thai Export assumption : 2024 growth at 2% vs 4Q24 growth -4% , negative on Oil, Car and Jewelry