We are glad to be back! Thanks to all of our subscribers, new and old, we are beginning our first post-hiatus show with a general preview of what our reporters think will be the headline stories of the new year.

We all agree this 2026 election cycle may be one of the most exciting in decades with competitive primaries on both side of the aisle. With Governor Reynolds and Joni Ernst out of the race we’ll have open primaries for both governor and senate this year. That republican primary for Governor could be especially hard to handicap at this point, and we do a deeper dive on that race towards the tail end of the show.

The economy, as always, will be a big story both locally and nationwide. We’ll see how the effect of tariffs will continue impact the state. Also, the cost of healthcare continues to rise, including for farmers and self-employed individuals on the Affordable Care Act options. How will those increases effect the electorate this year?

We’ll be back next week with a legislative session preview for 2026.

Thanks for watching, listening, and reading, we appreciate you!

AI generated transcript below:

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Hi, happy 2026.

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The Iowa Down Ballot podcast is officially back.

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We need like balloon drops, right, ladies?

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Confetti.

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Happy New Year.

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It's been a minute.

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Welcome back to Laura Bellen and Kathie Obradovich.

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How are you both?

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Fabulous, thank you.

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Good.

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As we were joking before we started recording,

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we all just tore it up for New Year's Eve,

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as we are known to do,

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so we needed two days to recover.

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It's hard for me to even say that out loud because it's so ridiculous for anybody

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who knows me that those days are long gone.

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I did not see the New Year ring in.

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Oh, you did not.

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I may have celebrated New Year in London or something like that, which was six hours earlier.

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Okay, Grandma, you're in bed by six.

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I was finishing my write-up of the special election in Senate District 16,

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thanks to somebody who scheduled the election for December 30th.

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I was finishing an article on New Year's Eve, so that was very exciting.

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You can ring in the new year like that.

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That will have significance in 2026, which kind of tees us up.

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I thought that for our welcome back gathering as we begin 2026,

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and we'll have extensive coverage in the weeks ahead of the Iowa legislative

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session,

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which starts,

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as we record,

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about a week and a half from now on Monday.

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But I thought maybe let's more broadly look at 2026, midterm election, legislative session.

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We have some economic things to think about.

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And I thought we would start off maybe by just hitting, let's pick one thing to start us.

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Laura,

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as I look at my screen,

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you're in my top left,

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so I'm going to make you go first as our leadoff hitter.

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But pick one thing that piques your curiosity for 2026.

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It's just going to be the most fascinating election cycle ever, Dave.

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But if I can only... You sound like a politician.

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The stakes could not be higher.

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But really, truly, I mean, it is going to be a wild election year.

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But I would say if I could only pick one thing...

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it would be this republican primary for governor because it is a weird primary

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shaping up don't do two good ones in one thought you're supposed to limit one

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thought can you please save the save the republican primary lady that's on my list

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here that's for later okay sorry do just the overall election and why is it so

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fascinating and maybe compared to the last couple

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Well,

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there are a lot of competitive primaries for a lot of offices,

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federal and state on both sides.

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So,

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I mean,

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I think a lot of people stepping up to run for office and I'm interested to see how

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it all shakes out.

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Okay.

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We'll take that.

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Thank you.

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All right, Kathie, what's top of your list?

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Okay.

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This is a kind of a subset of Laura's, but I know you're going to let me get away with it.

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Where's the mute button on this thing?

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And that is, will the success that Democrats have had in the special elections of 2025

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carry into 2026?

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And if so, how?

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So, I mean, these were legislative races.

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I wouldn't necessarily expect them to have legs above,

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you know,

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this is a down ballot podcast,

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right?

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But there's a lot of top of the ticket stuff to talk about.

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But,

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you know,

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whether the special elections,

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which frankly did generate a lot of life and momentum for Democrats,

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does this

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you know,

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translate to,

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you know,

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above the legislative races on the ballot and how or whether that momentum and life

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and spark carries through to legislative,

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important legislative races here in 2026.

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Laura, you did that deep dive.

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We already talked about it.

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You know,

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the way you rung in 2026 by living it up and writing out an extensive piece on that

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special election in the Des Moines Metro for the late Senator Claire Celci's seat.

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What did you see in there to piggyback off what Cathy said?

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where there was there something in there that you believe could give democrats some

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hope and i'm i have kind of a two-parter for you because i also want to tease

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something you wrote several months back when you were looking at particularly

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statewide the big big hole that democrats find themselves in when it comes to

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registered voters and that was sort of your caution to some of the activists about

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Hey, let's chill a little bit.

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You can be excited about 2026, but this is a big mountain to climb.

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How do you maybe connect those two things?

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Well,

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I think Cathy's right that it can be hard to see a special election as predictive

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of the next general election.

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But I do think that this election that just happened in the western suburbs of Des

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Moines is quite important because a lot of battleground legislative races will be

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in the Polk County suburbs.

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And we saw when Cindy Axne was elected in 2018 and reelected in 2020,

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strong turnout in the suburbs of Polk County was very important for her.

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And Democrats ran a really good ground game, and they're very fired up.

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And this trend that we've seen of suburbs becoming more Democratic,

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I mean,

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there's no sign of it slowing down right now.

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So I do think that that's important,

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and those Polk County suburbs are gonna be critical for a lot of races,

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including even the statewide races,

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because statewide candidates for Democrats are gonna need to get every last vote

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they can out of precincts like these Democratic ones in Polk County.

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But this voter registration hole that you brought up, I first wrote about this in June.

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The situation is basically no better for Democrats now.

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So at that time,

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I was thinking,

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OK,

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Democrats have about a year and a half to start chipping away at this massive voter

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registration lead that Republicans have and really minimal changes.

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And so if you compare it to the 2018 midterm, when Democrats had a pretty good election and

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Across Iowa, Fred Hubble only lost the governor's race by about three points.

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But at that time, the party registrations were closer to equal.

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I mean, the Republicans had a very slight advantage.

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Now it's almost a 200,000 advantage.

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And that's not to say that everybody votes according to their voter registration,

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but it's just hard if you start out

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that much in the hole,

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even with high turnout among Democrats,

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it's just hard to overcome that natural Republican advantage.

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So I still see Republicans as favored in all of the statewide races next year.

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I would say one thing, Dave, and that is

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You know,

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we just touched on the fact that there are a lot of really,

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really competitive primary races coming up in June.

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And that,

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to me,

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is an opportunity both for Republicans and Democrats,

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but to build up their party registration,

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because getting people to vote in primaries,

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obviously,

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you have to declare a party here in Iowa.

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We have closed primaries and getting people to declare a party for those primary

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elections and the fact that they're they're competitive and interesting.

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Could help some of that settle out,

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or at least we'll know after those June primaries or maybe leading up to the June

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primaries,

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how successful Democrats are likely to be in rectifying that gulf in party

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registrations.

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Kathie, earlier in your career, you primarily focused on Eastern Iowa.

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Now,

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of course,

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for years,

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you've really focused,

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even at the Register,

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you were pretty statewide in the way you viewed a lot of things.

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Now you especially are, really, you're regionally now.

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I'm curious what you make about the reddening of Iowa politically.

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What do you think's been behind all that?

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Yeah,

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I mean,

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it's I think it's too simple to just say it's Donald Trump and the effect of Donald

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Trump.

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I mean, I think that his election is part of it.

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I do also think and we could fill a whole show really on this rather than just like

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the 30 seconds I'm prepared to give it.

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But, I mean, I think there's some long term economic ills that Republicans have been better at.

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speaking the language of,

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in particular,

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rural Iowans about some of the economic issues or distracting them from economic

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issues with far-right social issues.

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So, and I, this is not a shift that will be turned around in the next six to 12 months.

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So I, you know, I do think that that

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It depends a lot on individual candidates,

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especially those ones at the top of the ticket to try to make an effective case to

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in particular rural voters,

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but also the party base.

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on how they can make strides in actually turning around what is at least perceived

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to be a difficult economy.

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I think it's going to be very much harder for incumbents than it has been in the

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past to essentially tell people,

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as it was hard for Democrats under Joe Biden,

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to tell people that the data doesn't bear out what they're feeling.

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You have to really speak to what people are feeling.

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The economy may be stronger than people think it is.

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But when you go to the grocery store and see the effects or you're dealing with

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goods and services that are under tariff,

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that's something that you remember.

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And having a politician come and tell you it's not that bad

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is difficult to hear.

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I am so interested in how people are going to view that because emotion wins over

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data,

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it would seem.

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Now,

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you will know well if you are a household,

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or at least to me,

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if you're a household where your margin is super,

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super,

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super tight every month.

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I mean, you can say paycheck to paycheck, but I'm talking even more than that.

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Like there are

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I don't know what the percentage is of people in our state who would be hosed if

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they lost one two-week paycheck.

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I'm sure it's a substantial amount,

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but I'm talking about the people that are just barely,

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barely get by.

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So if your finances have shifted a couple hundred bucks a month or something like that.

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So I'm so curious how people think through

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you know, how have tax cuts impacted them, what tariffs had done to them.

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And it's,

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you know,

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it's gonna be so hard for you to really process these things one at a time,

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even like the no taxes on overtime and tips,

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all those kinds of things.

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I mean,

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some of those you still have to sort of figure out,

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but at the end of the day,

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what's your bank account look like?

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And I know for me personally in 2024, I really underappreciated how many people

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were either struggling financially or emotionally struggling from or both from

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higher prices when you look at if you're a two-income family that didn't lose you

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know didn't lose your job didn't lose pay all those kind of stuff and and you're

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fortunate enough to have your retirement or some investments in the stock market

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And it was good living the last several years.

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I'm not saying the pandemic wasn't tough,

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but the markets were awesome and they've been great this year too.

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And so that's what,

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like half Americans have money one way or the other in the stock market and the

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other half don't.

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I'm more thinking about the half that doesn't have money in the stock market seeing

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these great returns.

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Like what do their finances look like?

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Yeah,

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part of that too,

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Dave,

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when you look at the bank account,

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okay,

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and this is an issue that stretches across,

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I think,

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economic lines or,

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you know,

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stretches across.

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In other words, it's equal opportunity pain.

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It's going to be the cost of health insurance.

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So you have now Medicaid and cuts to Medicaid.

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And then also the fact that the Affordable Care Act health care subsidies have been

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allowed to expire.

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And those two pressures,

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one,

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just make health insurance a lot more expensive for people who are on the

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Affordable Care Act.

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and or might make health insurance out of reach altogether.

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Okay, so those two things.

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Then you add that people who do have health insurance are fortunate enough to have

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health insurance from their employers.

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And now we've got,

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we see,

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first of all,

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we've subsidized health insurance,

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but haven't really done much about the cost of healthcare.

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So that is going up, up, up, and along with other consumer goods and et cetera, inflation.

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And now we're now seeing insurers who work through employers raising their rates.

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So people are seeing less money in their take-home pay because they are paying

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higher health insurance premiums as well.

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And part of that, the cost of health insurance, part of that,

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has been accelerated or exasperated by the fact that fewer people may be having insurance.

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And that just raises the cost for the rest of us.

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So, I mean, in a way, we're sort of back to that pre-Obamacare level of pain.

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And again, how does this play out in the elections?

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It'll be interesting.

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Laura, how do you look at health care?

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The one thing,

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I feel like this is my confessional here,

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but another thing that I screwed up in 2024 is I thought the restrictions on access

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to abortion would be a bigger driver with women at the polls than perhaps it turned

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out to be.

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It seems like maybe economic matters kind of trumped all of that.

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And I just did a piece the other day for TV where we were talking about,

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will that be different in 2026 now that health care has a more,

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I'm not saying there wasn't an economic side to abortion restrictions,

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but a more prominent one with more people now.

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Do you think health care will be higher up on people's list because it's so

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connected to finances?

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Absolutely, you do.

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I want to say I felt the same way in 2024,

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and I think a lot of Democratic candidates at all levels did.

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They were running tons of ads on reproductive rights and access to abortion,

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and it turned out not to be very successful.

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So I think that health care is going to be a massive issue for the midterm elections.

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if i'm a democratic candidate i would be going out right now and videotaping

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testimonials from people i mean i have a friend who looked for a full-time job she

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was fortunately able to find one that had benefits because she's the last few years

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she's been trying to make it work as a business owner and she just couldn't with

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the subsidies expiring she didn't think she was going to be able to afford health

(00:15:39):

insurance for her family i just published a guest post at bleeding heartland by an

(00:15:44):

author who is a single mom

(00:15:46):

her premiums are gonna, her health insurance premiums are going up by almost 80%.

(00:15:49):

They're going up from $191 a month to $342 a month.

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For a single mom, I mean, that is a lot of money.

(00:15:57):

And the Iowa Farmers Union a few weeks ago had a press conference where they had a

(00:16:01):

bunch of farmers on there talking about what a difference it was going to make.

(00:16:05):

And some of them were paying more than triple, they would be paying for their health insurance.

(00:16:10):

So I think that there's gonna be a lot of dislocation.

(00:16:12):

I think some people are gonna have to give up

(00:16:15):

trying to make it as a business owner or self-employed person.

(00:16:18):

I think that we're just going to see a lot of people drop their coverage entirely.

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And I absolutely think,

(00:16:25):

I mean,

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I'm assuming right now that Congress won't do anything to fix the problem because

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Congress seems to be unable to do very much right now.

(00:16:32):

So I think it's going to be absolutely a top issue in the midterms.

(00:16:36):

I thought maybe Congress would before the end of December do some kind of

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extension,

(00:16:43):

even if it were just one year or maybe whittle it down ever so slightly or build in

(00:16:50):

some aspect of we're going to investigate fraud or parade some people around and

(00:16:54):

get busted or something.

(00:16:55):

I don't know.

(00:16:56):

I totally got that wrong.

(00:16:57):

I thought that that would be kind of a kind of a play to get them through the midterms.

(00:17:04):

Right.

(00:17:04):

While they maybe tried to work on something else.

(00:17:06):

But I think I was a little surprised that they let that.

(00:17:09):

And I know we're focused more on Iowa,

(00:17:11):

but I think I was a little surprised that they didn't let that that they didn't do

(00:17:16):

something there.

(00:17:17):

Maybe not two years, but maybe one.

(00:17:19):

They're going to have to vote on it.

(00:17:20):

There's a discharge petition got enough signatures to force a vote on a straight

(00:17:25):

three-year extension.

(00:17:27):

And I think that, I mean, for most of the Iowa delegation, that'll be an easy no vote.

(00:17:32):

But I think this puts Zach Nunn in a real bind because he signed on to some of

(00:17:36):

those bipartisan measures to extend the tax credits for one year or two years with

(00:17:41):

some other

(00:17:42):

a few changes to the program,

(00:17:43):

maybe lowering the income that qualified for the subsidies,

(00:17:47):

that kind of thing.

(00:17:47):

But that's not what he's going to have to vote on.

(00:17:49):

He's going to have to vote up or down on a straight three-year extension.

(00:17:53):

And if he votes yes,

(00:17:55):

then conservatives will be upset that he basically voted to continue the Obamacare

(00:18:00):

structure.

(00:18:01):

But if he votes no,

(00:18:02):

I mean,

(00:18:03):

he's been promising his constituents that he was going to do something to help them

(00:18:07):

keep their health insurance premiums down.

(00:18:09):

So I don't know.

(00:18:10):

It was interesting also that Marianette Miller-Meeks,

(00:18:13):

who also is in a competitive race to try to keep her seat,

(00:18:18):

was the sort of poster lawmaker for the House Republicans bill.

(00:18:25):

which essentially was federal subsidies for health savings accounts,

(00:18:32):

which,

(00:18:33):

you know,

(00:18:34):

if anybody has a health savings account,

(00:18:36):

it's a nice supplement to health insurance.

(00:18:38):

It's certainly not a substitute for having health insurance.

(00:18:43):

You know,

(00:18:44):

it feeds into sort of the Republican line that costs will go down and people will

(00:18:48):

just shop around and,

(00:18:50):

you know,

(00:18:50):

get lower cost.

(00:18:51):

There was a cost transparency measure in that bill as well

(00:18:55):

But the way the system is set up right now,

(00:19:00):

if you walk in without health insurance,

(00:19:03):

the sticker price on your whatever you have done is just way higher than what

(00:19:10):

people with insurance are likely to pay.

(00:19:13):

So it's no substitute for having health insurance.

(00:19:16):

And that bill didn't really look like it had any chance at all in the Senate.

(00:19:22):

But I bring it up because Marionette Miller-Meeks was the top sponsor on that bill

(00:19:30):

and,

(00:19:30):

you know,

(00:19:31):

probably a recognition by her colleagues that she has a super competitive race here

(00:19:39):

coming up.

(00:19:41):

I wonder if,

(00:19:42):

Laura,

(00:19:42):

to your point,

(00:19:43):

the three-year extension,

(00:19:44):

maybe that's none's out,

(00:19:46):

you know,

(00:19:47):

but you can say that's too long.

(00:19:49):

You know, he's he originally was for two, if I remember right.

(00:19:52):

He was.

(00:19:53):

Yeah, he was for one and then he was for two.

(00:19:55):

But the bill that he signed on for two that would have made other changes.

(00:19:58):

It wasn't just a straight two year extension.

(00:20:00):

So that that may well be what he says.

(00:20:03):

But meanwhile,

(00:20:04):

I mean,

(00:20:04):

there is probably an inexhaustible supply of people who could appear in radio and

(00:20:08):

TV ads saying.

(00:20:10):

I live in wherever they live, the third district.

(00:20:14):

And Zach Nunn said that he would help keep my health insurance affordable and I had

(00:20:18):

to drop my coverage this year or whatever it is.

(00:20:21):

And I mean,

(00:20:21):

as for health savings accounts,

(00:20:24):

almost four years ago,

(00:20:25):

I catastrophically broke my ankle and spent a week in the hospital.

(00:20:28):

I mean, let's be real, a health savings account is useful, but it would never cover

(00:20:32):

a real emergency or a cancer diagnosis and treatment for somebody i mean it's not a

(00:20:39):

substitute for people being able to have health insurance coverage so these schemes

(00:20:43):

these health savings accounts are just not really going to get at the problem and

(00:20:48):

some of the other things i asked on the iowa farmers union a news conference that

(00:20:52):

they held about some of the other things in marionette miller meek's bill like

(00:20:56):

making it easier for self-employed people to band together to get these large group plans.

(00:21:00):

It's not that it's a bad idea.

(00:21:02):

It's just that,

(00:21:02):

first of all,

(00:21:03):

you could never do that immediately and lower costs in the short term with that.

(00:21:09):

And it's still, I mean, the expenses are going up even for people in the large group plans.

(00:21:14):

So it doesn't really address the problem.

(00:21:17):

The Iowa Farmers Union one was interesting to me because it is another way where

(00:21:23):

the folks in rural areas,

(00:21:26):

we can focus on rural Iowa,

(00:21:28):

that is a policy that could potentially hit them very hard.

(00:21:32):

Not everybody,

(00:21:33):

but some of them will,

(00:21:34):

as they pointed out,

(00:21:35):

see substantial increases if they choose to keep

(00:21:41):

getting insurance through Obamacare.

(00:21:43):

And there aren't that many off the farm jobs.

(00:21:48):

I mean,

(00:21:48):

my friend who I mentioned is in Polk County,

(00:21:50):

she was able to find a full time job with benefits.

(00:21:53):

But in a lot of parts of rural Iowa,

(00:21:55):

if you decide,

(00:21:56):

well,

(00:21:56):

okay,

(00:21:56):

we're going to have to have somebody get an off the farm job.

(00:21:59):

I mean, how many places can you even find work that has benefits?

(00:22:02):

Yeah, that's exactly what I was going to say.

(00:22:04):

So great minds that

(00:22:06):

A lot that feeds into the concern about rural development and the fact that,

(00:22:10):

you know,

(00:22:12):

when,

(00:22:12):

you know,

(00:22:14):

for example,

(00:22:14):

my aunt and uncle started farming up in northwest Iowa,

(00:22:17):

you know,

(00:22:19):

there were places that you could go and get an off farm job with insurance.

(00:22:27):

And now a lot of these small towns have just either emptied out,

(00:22:33):

the manufacturing jobs have gone away,

(00:22:35):

the,

(00:22:36):

you know,

(00:22:37):

maybe some of these other types of jobs,

(00:22:41):

service jobs,

(00:22:41):

whatever,

(00:22:42):

you know,

(00:22:42):

that the stores have closed,

(00:22:43):

etc.

(00:22:44):

So it is

(00:22:46):

It's not that people don't want to get an off-barm job,

(00:22:51):

but driving 60 miles to go work at a dollar store or whatever,

(00:22:57):

and there's no childcare,

(00:23:00):

right?

(00:23:00):

So where are you going to park your kids while you're doing this?

(00:23:03):

So it's a much more serious problem than it was even 20 years ago.

(00:23:07):

I'd like...

(00:23:11):

I need to make a mental note of that,

(00:23:13):

because I feel like what you just brought up there,

(00:23:15):

Kathie,

(00:23:15):

is worthy of its own podcast and one of the weeks ahead that as we do whatever this

(00:23:23):

seismic shift that we've seen in agriculture for the past half century,

(00:23:27):

where we have far fewer people farming and technology and other things are behind

(00:23:32):

this,

(00:23:33):

but

(00:23:35):

There's nowhere for these folks to go in their shrinking towns to find when many of

(00:23:42):

these families need off work employment and frequently either one or both,

(00:23:46):

if it's a married couple,

(00:23:47):

one or both will have some kind of off farm employment just to make a go of it,

(00:23:52):

much less go out to try to find benefits.

(00:23:54):

A lot of these folks just go without benefits because they're

(00:23:57):

there's just nowhere to find it but big picture whatever this transition is going

(00:24:01):

to look like for us as more and more people get out of farming unless they can find

(00:24:05):

some kind of niche way to do it you know we live in a state that is just dominated

(00:24:10):

by corn and bean production by and large and that is so hard for so many of these

(00:24:16):

people to make a living anymore

(00:24:18):

And it is so dependent on these federal subsidies to try to just survive, much less thrive.

(00:24:25):

I need to write that down after we finish recording because I'd love to kind of explore that.

(00:24:30):

We should have a guest on in

(00:24:32):

Yeah,

(00:24:32):

we should,

(00:24:33):

you know,

(00:24:33):

so while people are waiting for us to circle back to that,

(00:24:38):

they should go to Beth Hoffman's podcast with the Iowa,

(00:24:45):

is it the Local Food Coalition?

(00:24:47):

Is that the right name of her group?

(00:24:48):

I think the Iowa Food Coalition, the one at the Iowa Farm Table is the name.

(00:24:52):

Yes, at the Iowa Farm Table.

(00:24:54):

And there's her last one for the season is called Chickenization.

(00:24:59):

Go listen to that because it is a really good explainer about essentially what has

(00:25:05):

happened with vertical integration and how farmers,

(00:25:09):

so many of them,

(00:25:10):

are no longer working for themselves.

(00:25:12):

They're basically working for a processor or some other major giant corporation.

(00:25:19):

So it's really worth a listen.

(00:25:21):

And if you look at what Beth and her husband are doing,

(00:25:25):

there's such a prime example of what it takes to make a living,

(00:25:30):

right?

(00:25:30):

Like they have so many aspects to their farm operations.

(00:25:35):

Like when they host these large dinner gatherings,

(00:25:38):

which is just kind of a cool,

(00:25:39):

unique thing to begin with.

(00:25:40):

But she has, I mean, and the podcast is one more avenue.

(00:25:44):

Like it's all these little mini income streams these folks have to do to try to

(00:25:50):

make a living and sustain what they're trying to do there and hopefully figure out

(00:25:55):

some unique way that helps them to stand out in the marketplace i definitely need

(00:25:59):

to go down there and take a cooking class it sounds like they offer some good ones

(00:26:05):

yeah they do we need maybe we can take the whole writers collaborative down there

(00:26:08):

for an event that might be kind of fun okay laura so i rudely cut you off

(00:26:13):

when you tried to sneak two things into one thought.

(00:26:18):

But let's talk about this Republican primary for governor.

(00:26:23):

And that was almost at the top.

(00:26:25):

I felt to me like economic things had to be at the top of my list.

(00:26:29):

But that one is so fascinating to me.

(00:26:32):

When you have one big name, you would assume coming into this,

(00:26:38):

with a bunch of challengers, and somebody's got to at least get 35% to win this thing outright.

(00:26:45):

How do you set this thing up?

(00:26:47):

Right now,

(00:26:47):

I think you have to say Randy Feenstra is the favorite because he's got a lot of

(00:26:52):

money.

(00:26:52):

He's got, relatively speaking, higher name ID.

(00:26:56):

And like you say, you only need 35% or a plurality of at least 35% to win a primary.

(00:26:59):

But

(00:27:02):

He is such a weak candidate.

(00:27:05):

I mean,

(00:27:05):

I think he's very fortunate to have four people running against him,

(00:27:08):

because I think if this were a two-way or a three-way primary,

(00:27:12):

I think it would be much more open.

(00:27:15):

But I keep looking at this field,

(00:27:16):

and we'll know more when the fundraising reports are out in the middle of January.

(00:27:20):

But I just keep thinking,

(00:27:21):

who among these other four could put together a coalition to beat Randy Feenster in

(00:27:27):

a primary?

(00:27:27):

I'm just not sure that there is somebody.

(00:27:31):

What do you think of this race, Kathie?

(00:27:34):

I keep it keeps reminding me and probably not.

(00:27:39):

There's so many reasons why it shouldn't.

(00:27:42):

But it reminds me of the race between a unknown state senator from southeast Iowa.

(00:27:53):

and a Republican congressman who also was a former radio personality.

(00:28:02):

And just sort of remembering how hard

(00:28:06):

it was after a couple of terms in Congress for Jim Ross Lightfoot to connect with voters.

(00:28:13):

He didn't speak their language anymore.

(00:28:15):

He spoke the language of DC.

(00:28:18):

And I think he was,

(00:28:22):

in fact,

(00:28:24):

a really smart guy,

(00:28:25):

good communicator,

(00:28:27):

and certainly on paper,

(00:28:28):

a really,

(00:28:29):

really strong candidate.

(00:28:31):

But he didn't seem to do well at this sort of grassroots

(00:28:36):

campaigning, et cetera.

(00:28:39):

And that let Tom Vilsack sneak up on him, I think.

(00:28:44):

So it'll be interesting to see whether Randy Feenstra has that same problem with

(00:28:52):

communicating with voters on issues that they care about,

(00:28:56):

or if he can get out of that sort of DC mindset.

(00:29:00):

And we've seen Feenstra pick up the pace doing more events

(00:29:05):

maybe in the last month, month and a half.

(00:29:07):

But he has been interesting to me.

(00:29:11):

And look,

(00:29:11):

he's clearly making a tactical decision here to not show up at these group events

(00:29:17):

with the other four.

(00:29:19):

So they can all kind of beat up on him as he is off doing something else.

(00:29:23):

And I think every time,

(00:29:25):

I might be wrong here,

(00:29:26):

but I think every time he's had an event that they've scheduled somewhere else and

(00:29:30):

he can say,

(00:29:30):

hey,

(00:29:31):

I was over here while you four were over here.

(00:29:33):

but the way that he ran his gubernatorial campaign during the shutdown at 53 days

(00:29:44):

what was the day of that 43 43 felt like 53.

(00:29:47):

all right so you know a month and a half

(00:29:51):

If you compare Feenstra,

(00:29:54):

who has represented a very,

(00:29:55):

very safe conservative district for a Republican member of Congress in northwest

(00:30:00):

Iowa versus what Ashley Hinson did,

(00:30:03):

who is also running a statewide campaign,

(00:30:06):

right?

(00:30:07):

I felt like I was reading releases from her campaign side nonstop during the

(00:30:14):

shutdown that she was all over the place as she extends throughout the state for

(00:30:19):

this U.S.

(00:30:19):

Senate campaign.

(00:30:21):

And I was surprised that Feenstra didn't do more of that,

(00:30:25):

even if it's sort of like under the radar stuff where you're not sending out stuff

(00:30:29):

to be like,

(00:30:30):

hey,

(00:30:30):

come cover us.

(00:30:31):

You know, we're going to be here, here, whatever.

(00:30:33):

But to go out there,

(00:30:34):

kind of get your rhythm to make that transition,

(00:30:37):

Kathie,

(00:30:37):

like you're talking about going back to what Jim Ross Lightfoot did in 98,

(00:30:41):

right?

(00:30:42):

Yeah.

(00:30:44):

you know,

(00:30:44):

to try to,

(00:30:44):

you know,

(00:30:45):

to go from representing this to now the whole state and finding out whatever that

(00:30:49):

thematic message is going to be.

(00:30:51):

But Hinson was everywhere and,

(00:30:53):

you know,

(00:30:54):

maybe didn't really need to,

(00:30:55):

at least for the Republican primary,

(00:30:57):

right?

(00:30:57):

I mean,

(00:30:57):

she should go in as a super heavy primary favorite,

(00:31:01):

but it does feel like Feenster has kind of picked it up maybe more recently after

(00:31:06):

maybe some of the feedback they've been hearing from people.

(00:31:09):

And Rand Feenster needs to be spending all of his time

(00:31:12):

in eastern iowa you know east he should not be setting foot west of i-35 um he's

(00:31:19):

not well known uh in the eastern part of the state i mean look at uh he's he has um

(00:31:26):

political experience having been in the state senate um having served in county

(00:31:32):

government and now in congress and all of it

(00:31:36):

All of it has been in the far west part of the state.

(00:31:39):

He's not known in Eastern Iowa at all.

(00:31:43):

And really that's where he should be spending all of his time.

(00:31:46):

I mean, he's not even trying to get a good turnout at his events.

(00:31:50):

He had,

(00:31:51):

and by the way,

(00:31:52):

sometimes he has scheduled events in a different location from the candidate

(00:31:55):

forums,

(00:31:55):

but there was that one in December where they had it in Sioux Center,

(00:31:58):

a candidate forum that the other four candidates were at,

(00:32:01):

and he did his own event in Sioux Center that was earlier.

(00:32:05):

So he could have just driven across town.

(00:32:07):

It was only a few miles away.

(00:32:08):

And you look at the pictures on social media,

(00:32:11):

and he's getting like 12 people,

(00:32:12):

15 people,

(00:32:13):

18 people.

(00:32:15):

Althea Cole just wrote a fairly devastating column in the Cedar Rapids Gazette,

(00:32:19):

and she's their conservative columnist.

(00:32:21):

She went to his event at the Cedar Rapids Pizza Ranch,

(00:32:25):

and she said there were 14 people there in the second largest city in Iowa.

(00:32:30):

So he's not looking... To me, he's not getting...

(00:32:34):

the feedback that he would be getting if he were speaking to large audiences and

(00:32:38):

getting a sense of what's working and what's not working.

(00:32:42):

He's trying to have these tightly controlled environments where he won't be

(00:32:45):

confronted by any hecklers,

(00:32:47):

where the press coverage will be minimal.

(00:32:50):

And it's just not going to,

(00:32:51):

I mean,

(00:32:51):

maybe he can skate through the primary,

(00:32:54):

but it's not a good strategy.

(00:32:57):

I will be curious,

(00:32:58):

and you sort of made this point when you're talking about we can see the financials

(00:33:03):

later this month,

(00:33:04):

but whether the other four can survive until June.

(00:33:09):

Is there enough,

(00:33:10):

are there enough resources there for these folks to really mount a significant,

(00:33:15):

serious campaign,

(00:33:17):

or does this have to get whittled down a little bit?

(00:33:21):

Exactly.

(00:33:22):

Yeah, I don't know.

(00:33:23):

I mean, part of it depends on whether the nationals decide to weigh in on this.

(00:33:29):

You know,

(00:33:30):

do the does the Republican Governors Association pick a candidate early and start,

(00:33:36):

you know,

(00:33:37):

at least staffing them,

(00:33:38):

if not directly.

(00:33:41):

You know,

(00:33:41):

funding,

(00:33:43):

you know,

(00:33:44):

does the do national parties get involved in some of these other primaries?

(00:33:49):

So but yeah,

(00:33:51):

I mean,

(00:33:51):

I think that the candidates that are running against being struck kind of from the

(00:33:57):

right.

(00:33:58):

have been looking for little flash stories, you know, earned media.

(00:34:03):

You've got Adam Steen with his battle against the satanic temple in the,

(00:34:08):

you know,

(00:34:09):

wanting to put holiday displays up in the Capitol,

(00:34:12):

for example.

(00:34:13):

He got a little bit of a

(00:34:14):

a little bit of ink because of that.

(00:34:17):

So it'll be interesting to see if that sort of tactic can frankly sort of drive

(00:34:28):

Feenstra into spending more time talking about hot button or red meat social issues

(00:34:34):

in that primary.

(00:34:36):

I think Zach Lawn can self-fund, basically.

(00:34:38):

He said when he announced,

(00:34:40):

and nobody knows who he is,

(00:34:41):

really,

(00:34:41):

but he said that he expected to be the largest donor to his own campaign.

(00:34:47):

And I think he has ties to the Koch Brothers Network.

(00:34:51):

He was a state director for Americans for Prosperity in Montana a little more than 10 years ago.

(00:34:57):

I mean, he can probably stay in it.

(00:34:59):

I have no idea how somebody who's almost totally unknown could beat Randy Feenster

(00:35:04):

in the primary.

(00:35:05):

Adam Steen,

(00:35:05):

to me,

(00:35:06):

is the most interesting one because he does have some supporters who have big

(00:35:10):

megaphones.

(00:35:10):

Steve Dace would be one of them.

(00:35:12):

And so he may have raised more money than any of us expect.

(00:35:16):

I'm not sure.

(00:35:16):

I think the ones who are going to be really under pressure are

(00:35:20):

will be Eddie Andrews and Brad Sherman,

(00:35:22):

because they don't have a strong fundraising history from their time in the state

(00:35:27):

legislature,

(00:35:28):

and I'm just not sure how they can put together a statewide campaign.

(00:35:31):

Although I believe Eddie teased when he announced,

(00:35:35):

he teased that he had a huge donation to unveil.

(00:35:40):

To my knowledge,

(00:35:41):

he's never done it,

(00:35:42):

and maybe we'll see it when these financials come out if such a thing exists.

(00:35:47):

He did tease that, but then he did not follow through.

(00:35:50):

So I would be surprised if that money was forthcoming.

(00:35:54):

But we'll find out on January 19th, I guess.

(00:35:57):

All right.

(00:35:57):

So as we wrap up here, let's put you both on the spot.

(00:36:00):

What is the story that you want to

(00:36:04):

to be part of in 2026.

(00:36:05):

Kathie,

(00:36:06):

I don't wanna just say right,

(00:36:08):

cause you oversee a whole group here,

(00:36:12):

but so I'll put this on your staff perhaps,

(00:36:14):

but what's this story?

(00:36:15):

Maybe it's an issue, maybe it's something that you really wanna dig into.

(00:36:21):

I mean,

(00:36:22):

I can't narrow it down to one,

(00:36:25):

but I mean,

(00:36:26):

a lot of our focus in 2026 beyond just the legislative session and trying to cover

(00:36:32):

that in a way that is helpful to people is trying to find ways to make this

(00:36:41):

enormous,

(00:36:43):

huge election field understandable to people and giving them different ways to

(00:36:49):

find information about the candidates so that they feel like they can go vote in a

(00:36:55):

way that's at least as informed as you can be when you've just got a huge overstock

(00:37:01):

of candidates.

(00:37:04):

I would say the biggest,

(00:37:05):

the overarching campaign story that I'm interested in,

(00:37:09):

as this has been a hobby horse of mine for a while,

(00:37:11):

is what's going to happen in what I call the mid-sized cities,

(00:37:14):

what some people call micropolitan areas.

(00:37:17):

These are the towns of between 10,000 and 30,000 people.

(00:37:21):

And these are the areas where Democrats have just been crushed.

(00:37:24):

And so I'm looking to see not only for the top ticket races,

(00:37:28):

Senate governor,

(00:37:29):

but can Democrats manage to win back some of the legislative seats in some of these

(00:37:35):

areas?

(00:37:35):

I'm thinking of places like Marshalltown and Newton,

(00:37:40):

Clinton,

(00:37:41):

Burlington,

(00:37:42):

Ottumwa,

(00:37:43):

and those types of communities.

(00:37:45):

Those are just going to be critically important.

(00:37:47):

Mason City would be another one.

(00:37:49):

I'll piggyback off you, Laura.

(00:37:52):

I grew up in a town where we just went to go visit my mom, Belleville, Illinois.

(00:37:56):

It's on the east side of St.

(00:37:57):

Louis,

(00:37:58):

and it's about 45,000,

(00:38:00):

which I think is about what it was when I was a kid,

(00:38:02):

maybe slightly less.

(00:38:03):

I now live in Urbandale,

(00:38:05):

Iowa,

(00:38:05):

which has a population of about 45,000,

(00:38:07):

so apparently that's my sweet spot.

(00:38:09):

But it's it's kind of those size cities,

(00:38:12):

but possibly even smaller and specifically maybe some of those that you talk about,

(00:38:17):

Laura,

(00:38:17):

and maybe just not even the political side of it.

(00:38:21):

I am very curious about the economic.

(00:38:26):

opportunities for folks who live in those areas.

(00:38:29):

The Des Moines Metro,

(00:38:31):

we've had a so much growth here over the time since I've moved here in 2001.

(00:38:35):

And we have some other pockets across our state, sort of our larger metros.

(00:38:39):

But it's those,

(00:38:40):

you know,

(00:38:40):

like Ottumwa,

(00:38:42):

Creston,

(00:38:44):

you know,

(00:38:44):

those kind of size cities for Dodge,

(00:38:48):

Webster City,

(00:38:48):

I've seen a lot of changes there.

(00:38:51):

And I really want to hear from the candidates, I guess I am going back to politics.

(00:38:55):

like what's the beyond platitudes when you say you're going to focus on these folks

(00:39:02):

like where is the hope for these people?

(00:39:05):

And especially maybe when you start going maybe less than like 15,000,

(00:39:08):

you really start getting into the smaller ones.

(00:39:11):

These are the communities that have seen,

(00:39:13):

as Kathie mentioned earlier in the show,

(00:39:15):

maybe some manufacturing opportunities that have gone away,

(00:39:18):

but maybe they're part of these school districts that have had to merge and we

(00:39:23):

didn't even get into property taxes.

(00:39:24):

We'll probably talk about that in the next few weeks,

(00:39:26):

but this whole concept of shared services,

(00:39:29):

but what are these folks gonna do for a living?

(00:39:32):

and like what's next and if we're transitioning out of so many people farming like

(00:39:38):

they have to be able to do something for a living it's great that the des moines

(00:39:42):

metro has had such explosive growth for such a long time but the growth can't just

(00:39:48):

be from iowans leaving smaller communities right like what are these what are these

(00:39:53):

people going to do going forward that's what i want to try to find a way to do some

(00:39:57):

better reporting on kind of for 2026 personally

(00:40:02):

If you talk to people from Newton, I mean, nothing's ever been the same since Maytag closed.

(00:40:07):

And it's not for a lack of trying.

(00:40:09):

They tried a bunch of stuff.

(00:40:11):

Oh, yeah.

(00:40:11):

And Fort Dodge with Electrolux.

(00:40:13):

I mean, there are so many of these communities of that size.

(00:40:18):

Clinton has lost a lot of population.

(00:40:20):

I mean, and Burlington has lost population.

(00:40:23):

So at Keokuk, somebody told me this.

(00:40:25):

This is amazing.

(00:40:26):

Keokuk was a town of 20,000 people in 1960.

(00:40:30):

And it's below 10,000 now.

(00:40:33):

So they lost their hospital a couple of years ago.

(00:40:35):

I mean, there are just a whole host of problems in these communities.

(00:40:39):

And those are the places where Democrats really need to figure out a way to connect

(00:40:43):

with voters again.

(00:40:44):

All right.

(00:40:45):

I don't want to end on a downer, but I guess I just did.

(00:40:48):

So thanks.

(00:40:50):

Thanks for connecting.

(00:40:51):

Good to see you both in 2026.

(00:40:54):

Let's do this every week, right?

(00:40:55):

absolutely i'll be here definitely uh thanks for joining us everybody and thanks

(00:41:00):

for uh coming back and welcoming us back please support the podcast in whatever way

(00:41:05):

you can and tell everybody you know about this tell them let them know that we're

(00:41:11):

back at it we should be here every week next week we'll probably start looking

(00:41:15):

ahead to the legislative session we have so many things to dig into

(00:41:19):

whatever we get for a session this year,

(00:41:20):

three months,

(00:41:21):

three and a half months,

(00:41:22):

whatever the heck it ends up being.

(00:41:23):

But undoubtedly, there will be a lot of things to talk about.

(00:41:27):

Before we close, we, of course, want to thank Laura and Kathie.

(00:41:32):

But we also want to want to thank our producers,

(00:41:34):

Spencer Dirks,

(00:41:35):

and the music on here by D'Artagnan Brown.

(00:41:38):

Thanks for joining us for the Iowa Down Ballot podcast.

(00:41:42):

And we will talk to you next week.

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