Iowa Down Ballot by Iowa Writers Collaborative Members

April 19, 2025 Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 4/19/25

The team starts off by remembering Jay Byers, Simpson College president and former CEO of the Des Moines Partnership, after his passing on Thursday. Topics this week include; 52 unsolved cases will be printed on playing cards and distributed in the state’s prisons to generate new leads under Attorney General’s initiative; Bill allowing child victims to testify remotely advances in the Iowa House; Update on the ‘Baby Olivia’ video bill; Governor Reynolds has received a bill that would require high schoolers to pass the US citizenship test in order to graduate; Ashley Hinson has competition in US House District 2; Who might run against Sen. Ernst in a republican primary? Nathan Sage enters the US Senate race on the democratic side against Joni Ernst, and the launch video that Dave mentions can be found right here:

That’s about it for this week! Please share, comment, like, etc. Paid subscribers are always welcome as well. We appreciate your support. Have a nice Easter and Passover!

Here’s the transcript for those checking this out on the Substack Notes app:

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Hi,

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everyone,

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and welcome to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast,

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a production of the Iowa Writers Collaborative,

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our group of about 70 independent writers from all over the place writing about

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numerous topics,

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including politics,

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which is what we're talking about here on the podcast.

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Let's bring in our contributors for this week, Laura Bellin and Kathy Obradovich.

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Happy Friday to both of you.

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Good to be here.

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Goodness, thanks.

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Let's start off with something super, super sad on Thursday.

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A very,

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very well-known figure in the community,

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Jay Byers,

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who since the summer of 2023 has been the president of Simpson College,

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was found dead in the president's residence hall,

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which is just kind of right near campus.

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there in Indianola.

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And you both know Jay.

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Jay has been a part of so many circles.

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Started in politics.

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He worked for Leonard Boswell a long time ago.

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He was the head of the Greater Des Moines Partnership for more than 11 years and

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really helped build that organization to hand it off to where it is today.

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was really excited to go back to Simpson,

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his alma mater,

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to become president there and was all about promoting Simpson,

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but was part of so many community efforts and business efforts.

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And he was a musician, a guitar player.

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I mean, he was so well known and so beloved.

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And it's so sad for Katie.

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Katie and the girls about about Jay's passing.

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But did you did you all want to share a quick note?

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I would just say, you know, Jay was so well known and his enthusiasm was so infectious.

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I mean,

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he was always I never saw him when it wasn't on,

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you know,

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and and he had such enthusiasm and he would have I mean,

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he already was doing good things at Simpson

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And as you said, he was very influential with the Greater Des Moines Partnership.

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It's just, I mean, when he would walk into a room, he knew everyone, everybody knew him.

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And yeah, it's completely shocking.

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I was driving back from running an errand yesterday and my reporter called and I

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practically had to stop the car.

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I was so shocked.

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It's just a tragedy.

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I didn't know him personally.

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I had met him.

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I had seen him at events representing the partnership.

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But I didn't even know about his music background.

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But I saw just the outpouring of posts that I saw yesterday that he was a mentor to many people.

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And somebody said he even gave her guitar lessons.

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So just really incredibly tragic.

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And I was so sad to hear.

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Jay was so great in so many capacities over the years.

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But personally, he was also...

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super helpful for me to sit down and have coffee as we sort of brainstorm my

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midlife reinvention.

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He was very helpful with that.

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He always had advice for stuff.

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He was so super well-read that he could cite some, oh, you ought to read this.

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And he has touched so many people in so many different ways.

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So, so sorry for his wife.

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and and the girls as they as they mourn his loss okay let's uh let's segue into

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politics here let's get over to the iowa state house um laura you and i actually

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ventured slightly a couple blocks away from this state house to cover this event

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with attorney general brenna bird over at the des moines police department and i'm

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still trying to think through

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everything that was involved in this and i guess this is what i mean by this there

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were so she is and she announced this initiative where they will have playing cards

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and the playing cards will feature 52 unsolved cases in iowa from goes back a

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number of years here

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And they had some of the victims, family members who were at this event.

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And I couldn't help but think,

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some of them I've interviewed over the years because I had covered at least two of

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the cases that they featured.

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And I was trying to think what it's like to see your family member in a playing card.

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The Attorney General talked about they've had successes in a couple other states,

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including Connecticut,

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where you put these things out,

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and primarily it goes to jails and prisons and that,

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and the folks there may have heard about some crime,

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and maybe they have a little nugget that can...

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that can perhaps solve a crime and they claim in Connecticut they've had success.

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But what did you make of the whole event?

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I mean, it's an interesting idea if it's a way at all to possibly get that clue to solve these.

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I thought it was an odd event.

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The cold case unit is something Brenda Byrd has really talked about a lot that was

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created last year,

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and now it's fully staffed,

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and they are working through more than 400 cold cases,

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and they selected,

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as you said,

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52 for these playing cards.

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I asked about how can Iowans...

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see these cards.

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And they're not really for public distribution.

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They're going to be distributed in jails,

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prisons,

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where they think people might know something or know somebody who knows something

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about one of these cases.

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And I do understand the concept of it,

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but I was talking with someone yesterday who questioned,

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you know,

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why did she do a press conference about this?

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It's not, they're not available to the public.

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And it seemed

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kind of like promoting herself and her role.

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This is something that they could do quietly.

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It didn't need to be in a press conference.

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And I think obviously a lot of reporters were there wanting to ask her about some other things.

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I had questions not even necessarily related to the governor's race,

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but I had questions about other initiatives

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in her office that we weren't able to ask about because they wanted to keep things

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only on the topic of the cold cases and these playing cards.

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So in that sense,

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I always think it's unfortunate when a public official has a press conference and

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then they don't take any questions afterwards.

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About anything other than she did take questions about.

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Yes, I'm sorry about about other topics.

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Yes.

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Kathy, what did you make of it?

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Well,

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I when I first heard that she was doing playing cards,

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I my first thought was that it was going to be like,

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remember,

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during the during the Iraq war,

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you know,

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there were playing cards with the most wanted terrorists.

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Mm hmm.

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And different people distributed that to the public.

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So I thought it was going to be something like that.

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And then when I heard it was just going to jails and prisons, like, what is the point of that?

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But yeah,

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I mean,

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I get that that might shake some thought loose from somebody that might be helpful

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to the case.

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And it's kind of a gimmick, I guess.

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But I do agree that the press conference itself was probably a self-promotional

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thing for somebody who you know maybe possibly thinking about running for higher

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office and it it always gets so challenging because i think we're gonna we're gonna

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be respectful of their requests there i mean they did have family members in the

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room and that is what staff had asked and the attorney general had asked as well

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tonight you know to to keep it focused on the topic when governor reynolds does

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something like that typically

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She will do on topic questions first they dismiss the guests and then there'll be

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some kind of gaggle or some kind of availability that we have that we can ask that

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now the governor hasn't done a lot last couple of months necessarily but but.

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That's kind of a way that you can do both things.

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That's what Brenna Byrd did when she announced the cold case unit last June or July.

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I think it was in June, but she had an event.

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It was at the Polk County Sheriff's Department.

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They had a bunch of people there from law enforcement and they may have even had

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some family members there.

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And then all of those people left the room and she did take a few questions from reporters.

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So there was really no reason they couldn't have set it up that way.

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So we did not get to talk about kind of the elephant in the room,

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the political elephant in the room,

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but she has she's made a few comments publicly about.

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As she and her husband are thinking about whether they're going to move forward

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with this gubernatorial campaign so.

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Well,

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I had questions about other issues related to her work as Attorney General that I

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wasn't able to ask,

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so she doesn't have very many press availabilities.

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Not lately.

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OK, this this constitutional amendment that she has wanted.

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So essentially this would and I'm a law and order junkie and have been forever.

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I watched Law and Order SVU.

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I think I've seen literally every episode of that.

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And for those who are watching, listening to this, I hope you share my

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My hope that one day Captain Benson can retire,

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get married and enjoy a peaceful life with no more drama because she's been through

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so much.

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But I digress.

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But because of that show, I couldn't help but think about that kind of goes through my mind.

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And this whole constitutional amendment idea is that when you have.

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Child victims, they don't have to sit in the courtroom and face their accuser.

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They could do it remotely or it could be for children with intellectual limitations.

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But this gets pretty complex legally and uncertain.

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Kathy, do you want to lead us off?

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I know Laura is the the the legal junkie here.

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But I mean, this stems out of a Supreme Court ruling where the

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the person who was convicted challenged the fact that a child victim was not in the

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courtroom and the Supreme Court,

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in fact,

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ruled in his favor.

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And it really upended, you know, Iowa's longtime judicial practice to be able to allow

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child victims.

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And I don't know if,

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Laura,

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you may know if other like adults with developmental disabilities or other victims

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also were allowed to testify remotely.

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But I mean,

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I think this is a pretty bipartisan,

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fully bipartisan initiative in looking to amend the Constitution basically to make

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it clear that child victims can

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with the court's permission,

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testify remotely and that it does not affect the defendant's right to confront his

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or her accuser.

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Yeah, that's what makes it interesting to me to kind of tee it up to you, Laura.

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Kathy's point about it does feel like something like this would get bipartisan support.

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to protect these children after what they've already been through,

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then the legal question of this is,

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is this legal to do?

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Is it constitutional?

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Well,

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the constitutional,

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the Supreme Court ruling from last summer got overshadowed because it was issued

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the same day as the ruling that allowed the state to enforce the abortion ban,

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which obviously was like one of the stories of the decade.

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And it was the same split.

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It was the same four,

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three split with the same four and the majority and the same three dissenting from

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the ruling that said,

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and it was grounded.

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It was similar legal reasoning because it was grounded in this idea of originalism

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that we have to go back to what the framers

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of the Iowa Constitution,

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we're thinking about in the 1850s,

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60s,

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70s,

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and citing some historical examples of when children were called to testify.

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And in the dissent by the Chief Justice Christensen was really striking,

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saying,

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you know,

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this is like the kind of crime that wouldn't have been prosecuted in the 1850s that

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I mean,

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this kind of technology that would allow somebody to testify remotely wasn't

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something that anybody could have imagined in the 18...

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So it's of little use to look at these cases from the 1850s,

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60s,

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and 70s.

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But in any case, because it was a ruling grounded in an interpretation of the Iowa Constitution,

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that's why you would need a constitutional amendment to overcome that you can't

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just pass a law that says oh you know the legislature says it's okay for children

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or and some adults with intellectual disabilities to testify remotely so it i mean

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it did get bipartisan support it passed unanimously in the senate and it passed

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in the House with only six opposing votes, three from each party.

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And some people,

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one of the no votes,

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Charlie Thompson,

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a Republican who's also an attorney,

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spoke and he said he thinks the US Supreme Court may be about to revisit this issue

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where they have long ago rulings that said it was okay for children to testify remotely,

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but this constitutional right to confront your accuser in court is very important.

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So in any case, we're now,

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halfway through the process of getting it through the legislature,

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both the Iowa House and Senate approved this amendment.

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So now nothing's going to happen until after the next election.

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The next legislature would have to take this up again.

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And then if they pass it, it would go on the ballot.

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So it's going to take a number of years.

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There were Republicans in the House who preferred

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to try to pass a law to address this issue,

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and the Senate didn't pick it up,

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so it didn't get through the second funnel.

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I don't see how legally you can pass a law to address a Supreme Court ruling.

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To me, that would have to be done through a constitutional amendment.

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the the other thing that that went through the house thursday later than what we

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maybe originally thought uh the you know it was kind of called the baby olivia bill

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um for a while now it ends up it's not but so republicans and i i've wondered what

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they would do with this super majority in 2025 specifically when it comes to the

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issue of abortion right so you have fundamentally they you have a lot of the caucus

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that

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doesn't believe in any abortions or at least very very few instances of abortions

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and they have been in their minds protecting life and so this video that they want

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public school students to watch there is a baby olivia video that had a lot of the

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attention previously but that specific video

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is not this legislation but the concept of it is every child would watch this video

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and it shows you how a baby grows and it's supposed to bring dignity and

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essentially lets you know that this baby is a person the fetus is a person it it

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you know,

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behind the scenes,

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we were all wondering how this debate was gonna finally happen yesterday.

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But Laura, maybe start this off.

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Where is this now?

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And what did you make about how this came out?

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Well,

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Helena Hayes,

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who is the floor manager of the bill in the House,

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told me after the debate that this amendment...

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Of course,

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we had another last-minute amendment that wasn't vetted in any subcommittee or

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committee process,

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but she said this was negotiated with the Senate.

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So I think it's pretty likely the Senate is going to take this bill back up and

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pass this amended version.

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So the amendment...

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expands the grade levels.

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It was seven through 12.

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Now it's going to be grades five through 12 that they have to watch this video that

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has to have,

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it's very specific about the kinds of images that it has to have.

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And there are words in the bill about

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scientifically accurate and medically accurate, but those do not apply to the actual video.

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So I thought there was an interesting exchange yesterday during the debate.

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But the other thing they added with the amendment was that it says that schools

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could not use any materials produced by any entity that performs abortions or

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promotes abortions.

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And so obviously that was intended to prevent Planned Parenthood or some affiliated

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organization like Planned Parenthood

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from creating a video that would be scientifically accurate that would go through

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all the stages of fetal development.

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Because the big problem with this baby Olivia video from live action is that the

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way that the terminology is not,

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it's not what OBGYNs would use,

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the number of weeks,

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like when they say something happens at a certain number of weeks,

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it's not accurate.

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So that's one of the big problems.

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And so they've now

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prevented a group like Planned Parenthood from creating their own video and making

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that available to schools.

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But the problem is now,

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does that mean,

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as State Representative Austin Bathe raised during the debate,

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does that mean that information from Johns Hopkins or the Mayo Clinic,

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that those would not be allowed in Iowa schools because those

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are entities that perform abortions.

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But Helena Hayes told me afterwards that that wasn't the intention and that she

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doesn't think that those major hospital medical organizations promote abortions.

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So in any case, I mean, we'll see where it goes.

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But it sounded to me like the Senate is going to be willing to take this bill back

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with this amendment and send it on to the governor.

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A few bills where lawmakers yesterday or Thursday were...

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you know, dictating kind of to K-12 schools what what their curriculum was going to be.

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The other one was this idea of having all high school students have to pass the

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same civics exam that a,

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you know,

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somebody who wants to be a naturalized citizen of the country would have to pass in

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order to be naturalized.

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And that's that idea has been slowly percolating through the legislature.

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At this,

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the interesting amendment that Democrats offered on the floor would have required

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all lawmakers to take the test and to have their scores posted in the House and

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Senate journal.

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So it essentially made public.

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And somebody was a little slow on the button.

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I think that they probably meant to question whether that amendment was germane.

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But they didn't do it.

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And so they ended up actually having to vote that amendment down,

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which was a little bit of fun political theater for the day.

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I was going to say that citizenship exam requirement,

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that was actually a Governor Reynolds proposal from 2023.

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That was a piece of what later became Senate File 496 that had the school book bans,

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the don't say gay or trans from K through six.

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The wide-ranging education bill originally included that,

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and the House Republicans removed it through the process because it was seen as,

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I think,

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partly because it was an unfunded mandate on schools,

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but that this high-stakes exam new requirement for graduation wasn't going to be helpful.

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But apparently they've now come around to the idea that this is something they

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should impose on schools.

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That's a great

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government, American government class before I graduated from high school.

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I don't know if maybe that's not something that was statewide,

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but it seemed like at least some of that requirement was already in place,

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maybe not the specific naturalization exam.

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But I mean, there are a lot of concerns about that, too.

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There are kids who are not, you know, they're intimidated by

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you know, giant 100 question, you know, multiple choice exams and that this might not be

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It might, you know, encourage people to drop out.

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You know, it just might not be a the best tool for teaching.

(00:20:43):

I am all for teaching civics, you know, frankly.

(00:20:47):

And and I do think that exposing students to the type of questions that would be

(00:20:54):

asked of a new immigrant is a good idea.

(00:20:56):

You know,

(00:20:57):

whether whether it's a good idea to condition graduation on passing an exam like that,

(00:21:02):

I really

(00:21:04):

you know, I do question that, so.

(00:21:07):

When you,

(00:21:07):

Kathy,

(00:21:08):

you used the word theater,

(00:21:09):

and,

(00:21:10):

you know,

(00:21:11):

I always point out that of the three of us,

(00:21:12):

I'm the shallow TV guy,

(00:21:14):

so I think a lot in those terms,

(00:21:16):

but so many times when I'm watching some of this legislative debate,

(00:21:21):

and some of it is for theater,

(00:21:22):

right,

(00:21:23):

you know,

(00:21:23):

some of it is the

(00:21:25):

I think they lose perspective about how many people are watching this from home sometimes.

(00:21:30):

But of course,

(00:21:31):

in this day and age,

(00:21:32):

you can always have some viral moment,

(00:21:33):

but I'd love to know kind of snap polling on what the general public thinks about

(00:21:41):

this stuff.

(00:21:42):

Like I would think,

(00:21:42):

I don't know if I'm right on this or not,

(00:21:44):

but I would think you can get the bulk of the people who would go for some kind of

(00:21:48):

civics requirement.

(00:21:49):

And if you sell it to them, like,

(00:21:52):

You know,

(00:21:52):

we need to have a basic level understanding of our government,

(00:21:56):

how it works,

(00:21:57):

both state and federal,

(00:21:59):

and we're requiring this of immigrants.

(00:22:01):

So, you know, our kids should have it all.

(00:22:04):

But if you put that question before them about that amendment that you brought up, Kathy,

(00:22:11):

I would think the bulk of Iowans would think, yeah, you know what?

(00:22:16):

If you want the responsibility and the privilege of representing me in the

(00:22:21):

legislature or in any office,

(00:22:23):

frankly,

(00:22:24):

I think you ought to pass it too.

(00:22:25):

And I would like to know what your score is.

(00:22:28):

Yeah.

(00:22:28):

I mean, I sort of what's good for the goose is good for the gander, right?

(00:22:32):

Uh,

(00:22:32):

you know,

(00:22:33):

it makes it that the feeling is that they think this is okay for other people and

(00:22:38):

not for them.

(00:22:39):

So,

(00:22:40):

I think Eleanor Levin,

(00:22:42):

the Democrat who offered that amendment,

(00:22:45):

said that it was the first amendment she's ever offered that wasn't called out for

(00:22:48):

not being germane.

(00:22:49):

And I agree with Kathy.

(00:22:50):

I had the impression that the floor manager was supposed to hit the button and

(00:22:54):

question the germaneness,

(00:22:55):

but he was slow on it.

(00:22:57):

But Representative Chad Ingalls,

(00:22:58):

who was a Republican and a former school board president,

(00:23:01):

and who was one of the Republicans who voted against that bill on final passage,

(00:23:05):

several did,

(00:23:06):

but he had proposed an amendment that he ended up withdrawing without putting it to

(00:23:10):

a vote that would have...

(00:23:12):

There already is a requirement for some kind of government or civics class that's a semester,

(00:23:18):

but his amendment would have increased that,

(00:23:21):

added a semester to that,

(00:23:23):

and added things that would actually get students more engaged in learning about

(00:23:28):

civics and government rather than just taking a test.

(00:23:32):

Sometimes I just,

(00:23:33):

I can't help but think,

(00:23:34):

so many of these arguments just come down so heavily partisan that,

(00:23:38):

you know,

(00:23:38):

you wonder if we could just take a couple of things and mash it all together,

(00:23:41):

and we might be better served if we took a little bit of this and a little bit of that.

(00:23:46):

Let's get outside the Statehouse.

(00:23:47):

We've got a lot of other Statehouse stuff,

(00:23:49):

and maybe we'll put a pin in a few of these until next week.

(00:23:53):

But we had a few announcements this week.

(00:23:56):

There's been so much speculation.

(00:23:58):

You already talked about Brenda Burt.

(00:23:59):

Is she going to run for governor?

(00:24:00):

Is she not?

(00:24:02):

But we have had some people who have definitively said this week, hey, I'm doing this.

(00:24:08):

Let's start with the congressional race.

(00:24:09):

We can just hit this very closely.

(00:24:11):

But up in the second congressional district,

(00:24:13):

Ashley Hinson,

(00:24:14):

who we assume will run for reelection,

(00:24:17):

the Republican,

(00:24:18):

the former TV anchor,

(00:24:20):

in Cedar Rapids if she doesn't run for governor, if she runs for reelection in that House seat.

(00:24:26):

But she now has a Democratic challenger, Kevin Tekow.

(00:24:29):

We have covered him in different ways over the years since he used to be a US attorney.

(00:24:35):

He was in the Air Force for a long time and

(00:24:38):

under i think it was vilsack he was the dps commissioner and he might have been in

(00:24:43):

inspection and appeals too was he there too i think he was public safety

(00:24:47):

commissioner yeah he did that i was thinking he did one other thing statewide i may

(00:24:52):

i may not right but i know he was dps commissioner

(00:24:55):

uh so he's gonna run uh and uh not i'm thinking about it i'm doing it uh i could

(00:25:01):

not find a launch video i don't know if there was one but i couldn't find one

(00:25:05):

yesterday i don't get on the shallow tv guys i'm trying to see how they're gonna

(00:25:09):

message

(00:25:10):

i don't think there was one i i interviewed him on zoom i think there was just the

(00:25:15):

announcement and the press release and his facebook page he did file paperwork with

(00:25:20):

the fec but i think that this is going to be a really interesting race the

(00:25:24):

democratic congressional campaign committee didn't target iowa's second district

(00:25:28):

this is covering most of the northeastern part of the state did not target that

(00:25:32):

last election but have said that they will do so now and ashley henson

(00:25:37):

is a good fundraiser.

(00:25:38):

She did outperform Donald Trump in this part of the state.

(00:25:41):

But for Democrats to have a candidate who has a long history of working in that

(00:25:47):

area of the state,

(00:25:48):

he was the U.S.

(00:25:49):

Attorney for the Northern District of Iowa under Barack Obama.

(00:25:53):

And he also has lived,

(00:25:55):

he told me that,

(00:25:56):

I think he said he was born in Mason City,

(00:25:57):

but he's also lived in the Dubuque area,

(00:25:59):

lived in Marion,

(00:26:00):

a suburb of Cedar Rapids,

(00:26:02):

has lived in Cedar Rapids for a number of years.

(00:26:04):

(00:26:05):

I think it's going to be a really interesting race.

(00:26:07):

And Ashley Hinson,

(00:26:08):

yes,

(00:26:08):

I do assume she's going to run for re-election,

(00:26:11):

but I also think it's very likely she'll run for Chuck Grassley's U.S.

(00:26:14):

Senate seat in 2028.

(00:26:15):

Unless he runs again.

(00:26:18):

Right.

(00:26:19):

At the age of 95.

(00:26:22):

So this second congressional district in the next cycle could be an open seat.

(00:26:26):

And we've seen a lot of people elected to Congress on their second try.

(00:26:29):

So I think for somebody like Kevin Teckow,

(00:26:32):

if he has a good showing against Ashley Hinson,

(00:26:34):

we may even see him run again.

(00:26:36):

But if it's a great year for Democrats,

(00:26:38):

I mean,

(00:26:38):

the second district is Republican leaning,

(00:26:40):

but it's not overwhelmingly,

(00:26:42):

it's not like the fourth district.

(00:26:44):

It's definitely a district that in a wave election for Democrats is one Republicans

(00:26:49):

could conceivably lose.

(00:26:50):

Kathy, Hinson won by about 15, I think, in 2024.

(00:26:54):

What do you watch to see if Democrats are truly going to get involved in this race?

(00:27:02):

Because when you look at the numbers,

(00:27:04):

you would think,

(00:27:04):

oh,

(00:27:05):

this should be reasonably competitive here,

(00:27:07):

right?

(00:27:07):

It totally was not this last cycle.

(00:27:10):

And Democrats largely did not help Sarah Corkery at all.

(00:27:13):

Yeah, I mean, it's a different kind of year.

(00:27:16):

It's an off year.

(00:27:18):

The president's party often does not do as well in congressional and Senate races

(00:27:25):

in the off year.

(00:27:27):

So,

(00:27:27):

you know,

(00:27:28):

you take some of those,

(00:27:29):

again,

(00:27:31):

kind of lopsided results,

(00:27:33):

and you might really,

(00:27:34):

you know,

(00:27:35):

if you have a real candidate,

(00:27:36):

you might really expect those to be a little bit closer.

(00:27:39):

You know, frankly, I'd be a lot more worried if I were

(00:27:42):

Marionette Miller-Meeks or Zach Nunn than Ashley Henson might be.

(00:27:47):

But Kevin Tekka, at least on paper, is a really solid candidate.

(00:27:53):

And the law enforcement background,

(00:27:57):

the military background,

(00:28:00):

I do think that he brings something to the table that we haven't seen up against

(00:28:05):

Ashley Henson.

(00:28:07):

And he could, in fact, be a candidate who could appeal to people

(00:28:11):

on both sides of the aisle,

(00:28:12):

potentially,

(00:28:13):

or at least,

(00:28:14):

you know,

(00:28:15):

at least to sort of middle of the road and,

(00:28:18):

you know,

(00:28:19):

maybe it's slightly right leaning independence.

(00:28:22):

So so I do think that he's got it's interesting to me.

(00:28:25):

I mean, I hadn't heard the name Kevin Takao for years.

(00:28:30):

I mean, he used to be like, you know, like we said, all over state government, et cetera.

(00:28:34):

And, you know, as a U.S.

(00:28:35):

attorney, and I just we haven't really heard much from him.

(00:28:38):

um in the meantime so it'll be interesting to see you know sort of what he's been

(00:28:42):

up to uh to steal a few of the lines you just said about techos campaign I would

(00:28:48):

use that for Nathan Sage so he is the first Democrat to announce that he is running

(00:28:54):

in this U.S.

(00:28:55):

Senate race so this would be Joni Ernst's seat next year and she already said last

(00:28:59):

year that she would run there's been no formal formal declaration uh if she's

(00:29:04):

planning to do that but so Nathan Sage

(00:29:08):

was essentially recruited from this.

(00:29:10):

He was an independent, so he's only recently labeled himself a Democrat.

(00:29:16):

He was deployed to Iraq three different times.

(00:29:21):

He's been a mechanic.

(00:29:22):

He was a journalist.

(00:29:24):

He did news and sports in Knoxville.

(00:29:27):

Now he's the executive director of the Chamber of Commerce.

(00:29:32):

And I need to learn technology better so we can play this ad in the podcast.

(00:29:37):

So we're going to have to add a link to it.

(00:29:39):

But the ad, and again, it's video, so of course...

(00:29:42):

You know, my shallow brain is fascinated by it, but his launch video is interesting to me.

(00:29:48):

And I joked about this when I was doing some live shots for our TV station group

(00:29:52):

for Gray that I said,

(00:29:55):

you know,

(00:29:56):

I showed you a clip of this video.

(00:29:58):

I can't play the whole thing.

(00:29:59):

Not that we'd play the whole thing anyway.

(00:30:01):

But,

(00:30:01):

you know,

(00:30:01):

there are some words in there that our kids would get in trouble if they use them

(00:30:04):

at school.

(00:30:05):

Right.

(00:30:06):

And.

(00:30:07):

You know,

(00:30:07):

that's one of the things like with Trump,

(00:30:09):

you know,

(00:30:09):

he stands up there at an event,

(00:30:10):

cusses and stuff,

(00:30:11):

and we're not used to seeing that.

(00:30:13):

His people dig it.

(00:30:14):

They're all about it.

(00:30:15):

And we're seeing a few Democrats maybe.

(00:30:19):

I mean, they're not dropping the F-bomb perhaps, but maybe some of them are.

(00:30:24):

But this ad by Nathan Sage,

(00:30:26):

you know,

(00:30:27):

it's got a few words in there,

(00:30:28):

and not to be all prudish,

(00:30:29):

but we're just not used to seeing that,

(00:30:31):

right?

(00:30:31):

I'm curious what you both thought of, because he did have a video.

(00:30:34):

So what do you,

(00:30:35):

this whole,

(00:30:36):

this whole idea of basically kind of an independent there,

(00:30:40):

military background,

(00:30:42):

using some of the same themes maybe Joni Ernst,

(00:30:44):

without the cussing,

(00:30:46):

used when she launched herself on this statewide effort in 2014.

(00:30:49):

What did you both make of this launch?

(00:30:54):

So, first of all, the profanity in the in the video, it's attention getting.

(00:30:59):

It's memorable.

(00:31:00):

It does reinforce what I think is what he's trying to get across, that he is a working man.

(00:31:06):

He's an he's an everyman, you know, somebody who people in rural Iowa could really relate to.

(00:31:15):

He doesn't talk about real issues in the video.

(00:31:18):

It's more about how,

(00:31:20):

you know,

(00:31:20):

his persona is,

(00:31:23):

you know,

(00:31:23):

where he's somebody who's going to work for you and not the elite,

(00:31:27):

you know,

(00:31:27):

Joni Ernst.

(00:31:29):

And I did think that was interesting because when Joni Ernst,

(00:31:32):

of course,

(00:31:32):

when it was first running,

(00:31:35):

she was doing kind of that that same thing,

(00:31:38):

talking about how she was a small town girl who

(00:31:43):

you know,

(00:31:43):

likes to shoot guns and ride motorcycles and,

(00:31:46):

you know,

(00:31:46):

that she's an,

(00:31:47):

you know,

(00:31:47):

an every person type of persona as well.

(00:31:51):

So it is interesting that Nathan Sage is bringing that theme back.

(00:31:55):

I do want to mention he was really recruited to run by the same people who backed

(00:32:02):

Dan Osborne in Nebraska,

(00:32:04):

the independent candidate who came pretty darn close to knocking off Deb Fischer,

(00:32:09):

Republican for Senate.

(00:32:12):

And they were there were sort of hoping to recreate the magic and Iowa went went

(00:32:17):

looking for it.

(00:32:18):

Really,

(00:32:18):

I think they initially really wanted an independent,

(00:32:21):

decided that Nathan Sage had been an independent recently enough for them.

(00:32:27):

He didn't.

(00:32:28):

I don't think he switched parties just to run as a Democrat.

(00:32:32):

But but I do think that that that is interesting.

(00:32:35):

You know, it'll be interesting to see if they can raise enough money for him to be competitive.

(00:32:40):

And of course,

(00:32:40):

I do expect, I think we all expect there will be more Democrats in that race.

(00:32:46):

Our colleague in the Iowa Writers Collaborative,

(00:32:48):

Dr.

(00:32:49):

Bob Leonard,

(00:32:50):

wrote a post about this at Deep Midwest,

(00:32:52):

his Substack newsletter,

(00:32:53):

where he talked about the people who were consultants for Dan Osborne's campaign

(00:32:58):

basically came to him in December and asked him,

(00:33:00):

did he know of a veteran who was a working class guy,

(00:33:04):

a registered independent who might want to run against Joni Ernst?

(00:33:07):

And,

(00:33:07):

I mean,

(00:33:08):

the thing about that Dan Osborne's race against Deb Fischer is that it almost

(00:33:13):

worked because there was no Democratic candidate.

(00:33:15):

So the math,

(00:33:16):

I mean,

(00:33:17):

I think you can argue about whether that would be possible to recreate that in Iowa anyway,

(00:33:21):

but it certainly wouldn't work.

(00:33:23):

if there is a Democratic nominee, right?

(00:33:25):

It only works even theoretically if the Democrats take a pass on the race.

(00:33:29):

And so when it became clear that Democrats are not going to take a pass on the race

(00:33:34):

and that at least somebody is going to step up and run against Joni Ernst as a Democrat,

(00:33:39):

then it became necessary for Nathan Sage,

(00:33:42):

I think,

(00:33:42):

to run in the Democratic primary because otherwise there's no path.

(00:33:45):

And I'm very interested to see how it'll shake out.

(00:33:48):

And I feel that Joni Ernst is heavily favored to win re-election.

(00:33:51):

The last U.S.

(00:33:52):

senator from Iowa who didn't win re-election was Roger Jepsen, who lost to Tom Harkin in 1984.

(00:33:58):

So we have a history of re-electing incumbents to the U.S.

(00:34:01):

Senate, but should be an interesting Democratic primary.

(00:34:05):

Are you guys surprised that she hasn't drawn a Republican primary?

(00:34:10):

you know, a serious Republican primary opponent at this point.

(00:34:14):

I mean,

(00:34:15):

the the the MAGA right was really upset with her about her sort of hanging back on

(00:34:22):

Pete Hegs' nomination and confirmation.

(00:34:27):

And, you know, of course, she

(00:34:29):

ultimately voted for him,

(00:34:31):

but she was reluctant,

(00:34:33):

frankly,

(00:34:34):

and let it be known that she had concerns and questions.

(00:34:38):

And then there started to be,

(00:34:40):

you know,

(00:34:40):

especially in the conservative media and other places,

(00:34:45):

and I thought there was even a guy,

(00:34:48):

Laura,

(00:34:48):

you might remember,

(00:34:49):

there was a guy who said he was going to run,

(00:34:51):

and we haven't heard anything from him since.

(00:34:52):

But

(00:34:53):

Well, he launched a digital ad, Joshua Smith.

(00:34:55):

I mean,

(00:34:56):

he's a former libertarian,

(00:34:57):

but Jim Carlin,

(00:34:59):

who ran against Chuck Grassley in the 2022 primary,

(00:35:02):

he filed paperwork with the FEC earlier this year.

(00:35:04):

And I reached out to him a few times to say, are you running against Joni Ernst?

(00:35:09):

But he didn't get back to me.

(00:35:10):

But I think he is clearly thinking about it, at least seriously enough to file paperwork.

(00:35:15):

But

(00:35:16):

So to beat Joni Ernst in a primary would be a pretty tall order.

(00:35:20):

You would probably need a lot of money and support from Donald Trump or Elon Musk.

(00:35:25):

And right now,

(00:35:25):

I don't think Joni Ernst is giving Trump or Musk any reason to endorse a challenger.

(00:35:30):

So who knows?

(00:35:31):

And correct me if I'm wrong,

(00:35:32):

but when the Hegseth situation was going on and she initially said she wanted a

(00:35:39):

vetting of this,

(00:35:41):

which would be her job and her right as a senator to do that before the

(00:35:45):

confirmation hearing,

(00:35:46):

didn't elon musk tweet or x or whatever you do on that platform now didn't he

(00:35:55):

didn't he talk about her isn't that where some of this was planted and the and

(00:36:00):

putting out money to back at challenger wasn't well part of that well many people

(00:36:05):

were

(00:36:06):

talking about that.

(00:36:08):

I don't know that he tweeted about it,

(00:36:10):

but a huge number of conservative influencers on X in that first week in December.

(00:36:16):

She was the focus of a lot of, I don't even know, verbally abusive

(00:36:22):

I mean, just a lot of very hostile posts.

(00:36:24):

And it's so interesting to me because I see Joni Ernst as someone who never

(00:36:29):

seriously challenged Donald Trump in any way.

(00:36:31):

I mean,

(00:36:31):

she didn't endorse Trump before the 2024 caucuses,

(00:36:35):

but as a senator,

(00:36:36):

she never got in Trump's way.

(00:36:38):

And yet to see the hatred that some of these MAGA people have for her,

(00:36:43):

I mean,

(00:36:44):

I'm just trying to remember Charlie Kirk,

(00:36:46):

Benny Johnson,

(00:36:47):

there were a lot of people,

(00:36:48):

there were people calling for Carrie Lake to

(00:36:50):

Possibly Iowa had Carrie Lake had that event that welcome back to Iowa thing or

(00:36:57):

whatever that was initially scheduled and then they canceled it.

(00:37:01):

Like that's what the undercurrent you were wondering already she going to come here

(00:37:05):

and at least plant the seed to run against Ernst.

(00:37:08):

I mean,

(00:37:08):

it would take,

(00:37:09):

like I said,

(00:37:11):

to be Joni Ernst,

(00:37:12):

it would take a Donald Trump,

(00:37:15):

Elon Musk direct assault.

(00:37:17):

And I don't see any sign that that's going to happen.

(00:37:19):

But I do expect that somebody will file against her in the Republican primary.

(00:37:24):

And Jim Carlin, after raising almost no money, got a quarter of the vote against Chuck Grassley.

(00:37:31):

So, I mean, there are clearly going to be some MAGA people who aren't happy with Joni Ernst.

(00:37:37):

She has made a lot of moves.

(00:37:38):

I mean, she's the chair of the Senate Doge Caucus.

(00:37:42):

She is constantly both on the floor making videos talking about Doge.

(00:37:49):

She's been to Mar-a-Lago.

(00:37:52):

It seems like she is,

(00:37:53):

you know,

(00:37:53):

for all the chatter about Kim Reynolds really working over the past year to repair

(00:37:58):

that relationship,

(00:37:59):

I think we can,

(00:38:00):

we might argue that Joni Ernst has done even more to try to get into the,

(00:38:07):

maybe not good graces,

(00:38:08):

but less bad graces of both Musk and Trump,

(00:38:12):

right?

(00:38:12):

I mean, she's positioned herself a lot with that.

(00:38:16):

Yeah, it really is consistent with the campaign theme that she's always run, which is

(00:38:22):

you know, trying to cut the budget.

(00:38:25):

I mean, that was the whole theme behind the make them squeal, which was a brilliant ad.

(00:38:31):

Yeah.

(00:38:32):

And so I do think that she's that that is consistent with what she's run against.

(00:38:37):

It's it's it may also be,

(00:38:41):

you know,

(00:38:41):

a sort of a CYA to try to protect herself from,

(00:38:47):

you know,

(00:38:48):

an attack from the Trump administration as well.

(00:38:51):

I want to remind people that Joni Ernst,

(00:38:53):

although,

(00:38:54):

as I just said,

(00:38:55):

that when Trump was president,

(00:38:57):

she didn't get in his way on anything.

(00:38:58):

But before the Iowa caucuses, she introduced Nikki Haley in an event.

(00:39:03):

She didn't endorse anybody, but she said things that were very positive about Nikki Haley.

(00:39:09):

And then whereas a number of Iowa Republicans,

(00:39:12):

including Ashley Henson,

(00:39:13):

Marionette Miller-Meeks,

(00:39:15):

Kim Reynolds,

(00:39:16):

got on board with Trump very soon after the Iowa caucuses,

(00:39:20):

almost immediately after the Iowa caucuses.

(00:39:23):

Joni Ernst did not endorse Donald Trump until the day after Super Tuesday last March,

(00:39:28):

which was the day Nikki Haley dropped out.

(00:39:30):

So I think that was the part of it that the Trump people really couldn't forgive.

(00:39:34):

And I think that's why she's been working so hard to get back into his good graces.

(00:39:40):

Two points of that.

(00:39:41):

I agree with that.

(00:39:42):

Remember,

(00:39:44):

she also,

(00:39:44):

years back,

(00:39:46):

let him know that she was not interested in being his VP for Trump 1.0.

(00:39:52):

We don't know exactly the details, perhaps, of that conversation.

(00:39:55):

I wish we had video of that.

(00:39:58):

And I'm also reminded during the caucus cycle,

(00:40:01):

while she never endorsed anybody,

(00:40:03):

and to all the points you make about,

(00:40:05):

you know,

(00:40:05):

she did the event with Nikki Haley,

(00:40:07):

and I remember being at that one.

(00:40:09):

I remember when I interviewed her one time,

(00:40:11):

she pretty strongly defended Kim Reynolds when Trump was eviscerating her.

(00:40:19):

for supporting DeSantis.

(00:40:21):

And I can't help but just think of those incidents.

(00:40:24):

And Trump just doesn't seem like a forgive and forget kind of guy.

(00:40:30):

So it's hard to not think that she could still face a far right challenger,

(00:40:35):

whether it's Carlin or somebody at some point.

(00:40:38):

But it seems like she's done an awful lot to try to protect that right side.

(00:40:43):

Unlike Marinette Miller-Meeks, who has also probably tried to

(00:40:48):

to keep some kind of relationship with the MAGA side of the party,

(00:40:52):

but she has David Pouch running against her again.

(00:40:54):

And he raised all of $8,000 in the first quarter.

(00:40:59):

Yeah, but a long way to go.

(00:41:01):

No doubt money was, but he got within 10 points of her in the primary.

(00:41:04):

Absolutely.

(00:41:05):

No, I mean, she's vulnerable in the primary.

(00:41:07):

Miller Meeks is for sure.

(00:41:09):

She couldn't get 60% of the vote against somebody who raised almost no money.

(00:41:13):

So she absolutely could lose a primary.

(00:41:15):

All right, let's put a bowl on this.

(00:41:17):

What are you working on for the weekend?

(00:41:19):

Kathy, what do you got going on?

(00:41:20):

You've got big family plans too,

(00:41:22):

so you're going to have a tight schedule,

(00:41:24):

but what should we expect?

(00:41:26):

Yeah, so we are, you know, again, we'll be back at the legislature.

(00:41:33):

I really were to the point in the session where

(00:41:36):

We're watching closely on any tax.

(00:41:40):

And we're still waiting for the Republicans in the House to send us their budget targets.

(00:41:47):

It's unusual, really, that the Senate has theirs out weeks before.

(00:41:52):

And it makes me wonder what the holdup is in the House.

(00:41:57):

And of course,

(00:41:59):

we're self-interested in that because the sooner they get the budget done,

(00:42:03):

the sooner they will go home.

(00:42:06):

so so hoping hoping for that um you know i do think um we're gonna continue to see

(00:42:14):

also a lot more uh election movement here in the next couple of weeks and and

(00:42:20):

especially as the as the senate i mean as the legislature winds down um we

(00:42:25):

typically are going to see a lot more of the 2026 candidates showing their cards

(00:42:31):

I'm working on a first look at Kevin Tecau versus Ashley Henson,

(00:42:35):

but not just about his background and what he said in the interview that I did with

(00:42:40):

him yesterday,

(00:42:40):

but looking at that first district and kind of my deep dive that I like to do with

(00:42:45):

looking at the county level results and how some of those counties in Northeast

(00:42:49):

Iowa have had some of the biggest swings in the country from Obama to Trump.

(00:42:54):

And so what he would need to do to put together a winning coalition in that district.

(00:43:00):

John Kane- yeah Kathy you talked about when the legislature wraps up i'm

(00:43:04):

particularly interested in once that's done.

(00:43:06):

John Kane- These democratic legislators,

(00:43:08):

who are looking at both the third Congressional district and the US Senate race on

(00:43:14):

the democratic side if we're going to see.

(00:43:15):

John Kane- it's hard to see how they're all going to run but surely a few of them

(00:43:19):

are pretty serious and have made some strong behind the scenes moves to kind of

(00:43:24):

prepare for this.

(00:43:26):

We think so,

(00:43:27):

and where I,

(00:43:28):

you know,

(00:43:28):

I do think that we may have some people who started off thinking about one race and

(00:43:33):

may end up in another one.

(00:43:35):

Doing another one.

(00:43:36):

Exactly.

(00:43:37):

I'm going to,

(00:43:37):

I think I'm going to write about that event that Laura and I went to the Brenna

(00:43:42):

Byrd event with the playing cards over at the Des Moines Police Department,

(00:43:47):

just because it was fascinating me for a bunch of ways,

(00:43:49):

then I can't help it.

(00:43:50):

Obviously, we have a personal connection since we were so close to where that murder happened.

(00:43:55):

all those years ago.

(00:43:57):

All right, let's wrap this up for this week.

(00:43:59):

Clearly,

(00:43:59):

we got a lot to talk about to see what the heck happens with the legislature in the

(00:44:03):

final weeks.

(00:44:04):

No budget targets before Easter, and Easter was late this year.

(00:44:07):

So 2025, not a typical year.

(00:44:10):

Thanks,

(00:44:11):

everybody,

(00:44:12):

for joining us for the Iowa Down Ballot podcast,

(00:44:15):

a production from the Iowa Writers Collaborative.

(00:44:18):

We will be coming back to you next week.

(00:44:20):

We want to thank our producers, Spencer Dirks,

(00:44:23):

And thank Dartanyan Brown for the music you hear on this podcast.

(00:44:27):

Thanks for your support, as always, for the Iowa Writers Collaborative.

(00:44:31):

I hope you will check out all of our contributors and see some of the latest work

(00:44:36):

and financially support them if you can.

(00:44:39):

We'll see you next week.

Get full access to Iowa Down Ballot at iowawriterscollaborative.substack.com/subscribe

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