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We recorded this one ahead last Friday so Dave can spend some well-earned spring break time with his family. Last week we got into the candidate filing deadline, and we wanted to drill into some of the more marquee races such as governor and senate. The last time Iowa had an open race for governor and a senate seat was in 1968 so almost 60 years.
In the senate race the prohibitive favorite on the republican side is Ashley Hinson, although Jim Carlin could pose a challenge. On the democratic side it seems to be a pretty close race between Josh Turek and Zach Wahls.
In the race for governor, it’s the inverse. The democrats have a frontrunner nominee in Rob Sand while the republican race is far from settled.
Reminder to share us with your friends and family, we appreciate all of you for helping us continue to grow this podcast. We’re getting consistently over 1,000 views and around 750 to over 1,000 video watches. Plus over 200 podcast downloads. It’s great to know people are still looking for and finding real news. Have a great weekend!
AI generated transcript below:
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Dave Price: Hi, everybody, welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I am Dave Price, joined by my fellow Iowa Writers Collaborative columnist, Kathie Obradovich and Laura Bellin. Hello, ladies.
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Laura Belin: Hello.
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Dave Price: I will… we’re gonna start with a confessional that we are recording this ahead of time.
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Dave Price: Totally because of me.
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Dave Price: Because I am going to be spending some time with my kids, and I did not want to… not that I don’t enjoy joining you every Friday, but…
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Dave Price: I wasn’t going to be able to work that out quite as easily, and didn’t want to stop the fun to do that. So thank you for recording in advance, but your words will transcend time limits. They will just live on your wisdom and insights that we’re going to share with the masses, correct?
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Kathie Obradovich: I don’t know.
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Dave Price: We’re terrified.
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Laura Belin: Well, we just… we just want people to understand that if there’s some massive breaking Iowa politics news story next week, that it’s not that we’ve purposely ignored it.
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Dave Price: Exactly, but they can find that, undoubtedly, in your other work. Correct. Which is perhaps not here. So we’re going to talk kind of big picture, and so now that we’ve gone past the filing deadline, we can start to look ahead, and this week, we want to zero in on the U.S. Senate race, because we have an open race.
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Dave Price: We have an open primary on both sides, we don’t get that a lot.
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Dave Price: I’m trying to do this off the top of my head, and I forget the stat. I wasn’t planning on saying this, but when… somebody already did the research. When was the last time we had open U.S. Senate race and open governor?
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Kathie Obradovich: 68.
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Dave Price: 68.
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Laura Belin: 1968.
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Dave Price: Okay. I knew it was a bit. Yep. So, who knows what we’re in store for? Let’s start with the Republican side. So, Joni Ernst, as we know, frankly, she’s honoring her campaign pledge that she said during a debate in 2014 that she said she would not do this more than two terms, right? And I think… was that prompted by Matt Whitaker? Did he say it first in that debate?
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Dave Price: Remember that?
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Laura Belin: I can’t remember whether it was Whitaker or one of the other candidates, that’s a good… but… and I can’t remember whether the person said it unprompted, or whether there was a specific question about the term limits.
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Dave Price: But so, you know, there was all this speculation, but she followed through with it, yeah.
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Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, that’s probably the least of the reasons why she’s not running.
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Laura Belin: I mean, she did tell several reporters in 2024 that she intended to run for a third term. She’s mentioned that to our Iowa Writers Collaborative colleague, Doug Burns. I’m pretty sure she also mentioned it to Breanne Fonschiel of the Des Moines Register, so something changed during calendar year 2025.
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Dave Price: I think in 24, she teased it at the roast and Ride, too, if I remember right, when I was there. I think she had… because Doug had already asked her about running, so yeah, it does seem like, you know, sort of a Kim Reynolds scenario, right? I mean, we…
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Laura Belin: Hmm.
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Dave Price: It seemed like both were running until they weren’t.
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Laura Belin: Right.
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Dave Price: Okay, so that’s the dynamics here, so she’s not going to run, so now we have this open primary on both sides. We talked about in last week’s show.
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Dave Price: how, while some people maybe don’t look at it like this, we can probably come up with a pretty good list of reasons why a competitive primary could be beneficial for candidates. Now, on the Republican side, we have to see if it will be a Republican primary, right?
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Laura Belin: Yeah, I mean, the Democratic primary is a true case where either candidate has a good chance of winning, whereas the Republican primary is much more of a heavy favorite versus a long shot. But Jim Carlin
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Laura Belin: He’s… I consider him a serious candidate. He got about a quarter of the vote as a primary challenger to Senator Chuck Grassley in 2022, so that’s…
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Laura Belin: Nothing to sneeze at. There are… there’s a big chunk of Republican voters who are not happy with the establishment, and Ashley Hinson is certainly the establishment candidate in this primary.
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Dave Price: Can I…
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Kathie Obradovich: A big part of Carlin’s, just the last time, though, running against Grassley, is completely different, because I think a big part of his argument, and the one that probably resonated most with voters, was that Grassley had just been there too long. He can’t make that argument against somebody in an open race. And secondly, I would just say.
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Kathie Obradovich: Carlin running against Ashley Hinson, from the right.
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Kathie Obradovich: Is a much harder path than running against Joni Ernst from the right one about.
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Laura Belin: Why, I mean, their voting records aren’t very different, though.
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Kathie Obradovich: But they’re a little bit different. I mean, I think Joni Ernst has been a much more reliable MAGA vote than… I mean, Ashley Hinson has been a much more reliable MAGA vote than Joni Ernst was. I think that Joni Ernst upset conservatives on a number of occasions, most recently, with her sort of wavering about Pete Hegsus.
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Kathie Obradovich: You know, his… And Elsa.
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Kathie Obradovich: She, yeah, his nomination. But she had done also, I think, bipartisan work. She made a point of working with Democrats, especially female senator Democrats over her period, and I just don’t think we’ve seen that same kind of thing from Ashley Hinson.
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Laura Belin: I think if you’re a MAGA nihilist, though, I mean, they both voted to certify the 2020 Electoral College count.
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Laura Belin: And they both voted for the, what was it, Respect for Marriage Act that acknowledged marriage equality. And so I think that there’s still gonna be a hardcore contingent who won’t be happy with Ashley Hinson.
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Dave Price: I… I think that the… there is a chunk in MAGA that definitely did not like Joni Ernst.
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Dave Price: I think we really saw that. Maybe Hegseth…
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Dave Price: Sort of blew that up, but…
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Dave Price: I mean, you know, she faced all kinds of threats.
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Dave Price: Both professionally and otherwise, because of her initial stance that…
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Dave Price: There’s some revisionist history, I think, with some of her critics on this, too. Never did she say early on with the Hegstass situation that he was terrible, his acts were terrible, the accusations were terrible, or that she could never confirm him, all that stuff.
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Dave Price: All she said and called for was the process, which is traditionally what happens in hearings, is the investigatory
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Dave Price: process into somebody’s background, and you try to feel them out, what they’re all about. And that is not… that was not what some in the party wanted.
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Kathie Obradovich: So, you know, I just think that…
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Kathie Obradovich: by saying that Hinson is a little bit more reliably MAGA. Yeah, Joni Ernst went along with the party, you know, the vast majority of the time. She, you know, I think had a…
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Kathie Obradovich: I wouldn’t say relationship with Donald Trump, but… but I always got the feeling from her that she was less than enthusiastic about him, you know, that she went along because she felt like that’s what she had to do. Whereas, you know, I don’t see that as much with Ashley Hinson, that there’s
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Kathie Obradovich: You know, potentially air between her positions and the president’s.
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Dave Price: And I forget how she phrased it, but she said…
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Dave Price: she’d be as big a supporter, or as big as ally, or something, I believe, when she launched
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Dave Price: her Senate campaign, and I’m not going to get the exact wordage right, but she made sure to stress
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Dave Price: how much of a supporter of the president that she was, and Ernst did… clearly did not do that during the caucus cycle. Now, during… in 2026, she has been very much
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Dave Price: a strong, vocal supporter of the president’s actions and policies.
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Laura Belin: So, by.
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Kathie Obradovich: Which is interesting, since she doesn’t have to be.
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Laura Belin: Hinson did not endorse Donald Trump before the 2024 caucuses, though. She endorsed him immediately after, and then Joni Ernst waited until Nikki Haley dropped out to endorse Trump. So I think that’s where some of the animosity comes from. But, I mean, let’s remember that Ashley Hinson really owes her entire career in Congress to Donald Trump’s coattails. She was elected in 2020. I think that many going into that election
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Laura Belin: didn’t see her as the favorite to beat Abby Finkenauer, and clearly, it was Donald Trump’s coattails that pulled her over the line, whereas Joni Ernst was elected to the Senate before Donald Trump even went down the escalator. So, I think that there is a difference in the relationship there.
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Dave Price: One thing I don’t know about Carlin, because I’ve spoken very little to him and have covered very little about him in the Senate campaign, and as somebody pointed out to me, he’s put in a bunch of his own money, I think a couple hundred thousand.
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Laura Belin: Correct.
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Dave Price: so he’s clearly committed to what he’s… what he’s trying to do, so I don’t know if he’s done some under-the-radar stuff that I’m not familiar with, where he’s out and done a ton of events, like…
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Dave Price: Brad Sherman didn’t necessarily send out tons and tons of media releases to let us know where he was, but when he filed for governor, he talked about he’s done, like, 250 events or something like that. So he’s been out to do it. I’m not saying he’s the frontrunner in the race for governor, but…
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Dave Price: Carlyn, I don’t know if he’s sort of made those moves where I just haven’t seen it, but with Hinson, the one thing that I noticed with her during the previous
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Dave Price: federal government shutdown, or the chunk of it that was shut down. Unlike some of the others, she was out all over the place.
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Dave Price: And…
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Dave Price: I don’t know that she really had to be. I mean, some other members did not do that, but she was all over the place, really leaning into kind of establishing those relationships, whether it was just for the primary, if she was thinking about that at all, but I thought she had a very aggressive
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Dave Price: Schedule during those 50-something days, or whatever that was, when things were shut down.
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Laura Belin: I think that Carlin, if you look at his Facebook page, I think he goes to a fair number of events, and not only Republican Party events, but things like gun shows, but I wanted to mention that Althea Cole, who’s the conservative columnist for the Cedar Rapids Gazette, she said something on a different podcast a few weeks ago that really struck me as true, which is that Jim Carlin, who’s from Sioux City.
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Laura Belin: If he could have run against Randy Feenstra in 2024 in that primary, when Randy Feenstra only got about 60% of the vote against Kevin Virgil, who was a total unknown, really, even 5 months before the primary. And you have to wonder, if Kevin Virgil was able to get
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Laura Belin: 40% of the vote. Could Jim Carlin, who already was better known in northwest Iowa, having run against Chuck Grassley already and served in the Iowa Senate, could he have been more successful as a primary challenger in the 4th District, rather than trying to run statewide on the lower resources that he has?
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Dave Price: Perhaps, but I wonder, with Virgil, though, he really leaned in so hard to the pipeline.
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Dave Price: That it felt like that really helped him sort of burst onto the scene.
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Laura Belin: That’s true. And build a following, and I wonder if that really helped him.
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Dave Price: Have the success that he did.
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Laura Belin: Carlin has the same position on the pipeline as Virgil. There’s no reason why he couldn’t have done that as well.
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Kathie Obradovich: One thing that’s interesting about this primary, I think, is to what extent Carlin will be able to drag Hinson to the right on some of this.
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Kathie Obradovich: some of these policies, I mean, Carlin,
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Dave Price: like Mary.
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Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, marriage, you know, I think, yeah, some of those, culture issues. Yeah, I mean, Hinson has been voting with the party, but that is not where she’s been putting her priority, is… other than
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Kathie Obradovich: Other than the anti-trans, you know, the gender identity issue that came out of.
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Kathie Obradovich: the Linn County School District. She really sort of emphasized that, before the last election. But, in general, she hasn’t really been, you know, somebody who makes that culture, you know, religious right, the main point of what she’s after. And Carlin has. I mean, that has been…
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Kathie Obradovich: you know, that has been his main, not necessarily in this race, but in the past, so…
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Laura Belin: brand stuff, Ashley Hinson is talking about all the time, every public appearance. She’s always… and that is not how she postured when she was a candidate for the Iowa House in 2016 and 2018 at all. But I’m curious to see whether she’ll agree to debate Jim Carlin.
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Laura Belin: I mean, I don’t know that she will, really. And I think that Jim Carlin could, just by highlighting things like the fact that she voted to certify the Electoral College count, which I don’t know that the Iowans in Congress would have done that if not for Marionette Miller-Meeks. There was this very awkward situation where Marionette Miller-Meeks was up by only 6 votes.
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Laura Belin: With 29, or whatever it was, absentee ballots not counted.
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Laura Belin: And they were all demanding that Marionette Miller-Meeks be seated in Congress, which of course she was, so everybody in the Iowa delegation voted to certify the Electoral College counts from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Arizona and the other disputed states, but that’s something that… I mean.
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Laura Belin: Jim Carlin is way out there on that issue. He went to one of Mike Lindell’s conferences with
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Laura Belin: Senator Sandy Salmon in 2021, and he was demanding for the election to be revoked. I mean, even, like, months after Joe Biden was in office, he was demanding that they decertify the 2020 election. So, if he really pushes that button hard, I don’t think that
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Laura Belin: That’s just probably not a conversation Ashley Hinson wants to have.
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Kathie Obradovich: And it’s also… I think that’s a rough conversation to have, in a primary
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Kathie Obradovich: if you are the winner, because that carries over, I think, to the general election when, you know, I think that the average, even… even right-leaning independents probably don’t want to talk about that. That’s not what, you know, that’s not a good general election issue, I don’t think.
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Dave Price: No, they’re looking at… yeah, they know that has been litigated again and again. Okay, on the Democratic side, so we have Josh Turek, the state legislator from Council Bluffs. We have Zach Walls, the state senator from Coralville.
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Dave Price: As they’ve both filed, they’re the two.
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Dave Price: This looks like, early on, like, this could be a very… competitive race, right?
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Dave Price: What’s this gonna come down to?
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Kathie Obradovich: Has anybody seen polling? So I was just looking… the New York Times, had some polling, well, they had a compilation of polls, and the most recent ones I’ve seen in that race was in early January, like, the first part of the year, where it showed… it was interesting, it showed, Hinson at 44%,
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Kathie Obradovich: Three points.
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Kathie Obradovich: ahead of both Walls and Turek. So, Turek and Walls basically tied, are equally competitive against, Ashley Hinson, and she was only 3 points ahead of either one of them at that time, but there’s been a lot of water under the bridge since January, and I just haven’t seen any other polling yet.
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Laura Belin: So, I haven’t seen that the general election polling since that one that showed
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Laura Belin: I was very struck by Ashley Hinson being below 50% against either of them, and then that was the one that after… so the initial ballot test, she was 2 or 3 points ahead, and then after hearing more information about the candidates, Ashley Hinson was tied with Turek and maybe a couple of points ahead of Walls. But I think the big takeaway is Ashley Hinson below 50%. But in terms of
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Laura Belin: primary polling, there was a Republican poll that showed Walls ahead of Turek, and then there was an internal Walls poll that showed Walls ahead of Turek, and the Turek campaign, to my knowledge, has not released any internal polling. So, I think that at this stage.
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Laura Belin: that Zach Walls maybe has a little bit of an advantage, but I don’t think it would be insurmountable. I mean, probably at this stage in 2022, Abby Finkenauer was still considered the heavy favorite against Mike Franken, who ended up winning that primary.
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Dave Price: I wonder what… what this comes down to for Democrats.
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Dave Price: Is it issue-driven? Is it… is it more which one of these guys can win?
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Dave Price: What’s gonna be the primary driver of conversation?
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Dave Price: For people who are truly…
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Kathie Obradovich: Wow.
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Dave Price: Sampling and trying to figure their minds out.
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Kathie Obradovich: I think that it… first and foremost, Democrats have to be looking at who can win.
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Kathie Obradovich: But their… their estimation of who can win, you know, is often driven by, you know, where they think the candidates are on issues, or just, you know, whether they like them on a personal level, you know, that gut feeling that they have. So, I mean, if you were to ask that in a poll, I think who can win is
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Kathie Obradovich: is the plurality, but what… what may, you know, which candidate can win, you know, typically people just go with the one that they like the best, so…
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Laura Belin: Well, the Turek campaign wants to make it all about electability. I mean, they’re always out there saying… Josh Turek is always reminding people, and this is true, I wrote about it after the 2024 election, he is the Democratic legislator who won the most Trump voting district that is held by a Democrat in 2024. I mean, if we’re not counting the special election that Mike Zimmer flipped that Senate seat. But just in the 2024 general election.
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Laura Belin: he did carry a district that Trump won handily, and whereas Zach Walls, coming from Johnson County, he’s never even had a Democratic, or had a Republican opponent at all. So that is the main Turek argument, for sure, is going to be, I’m battle-tested, I can win in November. Now, the Walls campaign, he has the majority of the union endorsements, so he’s gonna say he’s the best candidate for the working class. I don’t think labor endorsements
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Laura Belin: as important in Democratic primaries as they used to be a generation or two ago, but I certainly think it’s very helpful. And then, what we hear a lot from Walz and his supporters is that Josh Turek is the preferred candidate of Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and I just anecdotally, I hear people… that makes them wary when they think that the D.C. Democrats prefer Turek.
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Laura Belin: It makes them wonder why.
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Kathie Obradovich: M.
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Dave Price: Laura, when you’re out…
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Kathie Obradovich: That sort of soft idea that the DC Democrats prefer Turek, I think, becomes an advantage if they put… throw money to the campaign as a result, and I’m waiting to see if that has actually occurred. You know, if they put their money where their mouth is, that
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Kathie Obradovich: That turns a…
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Kathie Obradovich: you know, perhaps a disadvantage into, at least a wash, if not an advantage. But,
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Kathie Obradovich: But Walz, you know, he’s a well-known, Democrat in Iowa. He has had national attention, so I… so I think that he also… and, you know, I think that may be reflected some in his fundraising. He’s, you know, he’s not…
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Kathie Obradovich: prohibited… prohibitively ahead of Turek, but he is… he… he has raised a little bit more money. And also, as I mentioned last week, you know, I think he’s geographically well situated to, you know, really… he might be better known to more of the Democrats in the state just because of where he’s from.
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Laura Belin: I think, technically, Turek has raised more money, but Wells has more cash on hand, because.
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Kathie Obradovich: That’s a great campaign.
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Laura Belin: they’d spent more. But they’ve both raised a lot of money, but I was gonna say that kind of the flip side of…
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Laura Belin: well, the Democratic establishment wants Turek, and that’s one of Walz’s talking points, is that he’s the only person opposed by the establishment of both parties
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Laura Belin: from Turek’s people, they say, well, look, the Republicans are always talking about Zach Walls, they’re doing everything they can to elevate Zach Walls because he’s the one they want to run against. And we see, from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
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Laura Belin: They periodically put out a press release or a statement attacking walls, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen them put out a statement about Turek.
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Dave Price: And Hinson herself, I believe, has talked far more about walls.
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Laura Belin: Yes, I don’t know that she’s ever talked about Turek that I’ve heard. I’ve heard her several times name check Zach Walls.
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Dave Price: All right, much more to discuss in this race, and we’ll have 3 months to do it leading up to this primary.
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Dave Price: Thanks for the conversation, ladies. Have a great week ahead.
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Kathie Obradovich: You too.
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Laura Belin: True.
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Dave Price: Thanks to all of you.
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Kathie Obradovich: Wow.
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Dave Price: for joining us here on the Iowa Down Ballad podcast, and as we always like to close these shows, thank you so much to all of you who subscribe and share this podcast. It has been so fun and humbling for all of us to see how this conversation has grown from week to week.
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Dave Price: And we very much appreciate you. Thank you for supporting this. Thank you for supporting all the independent work that our colleagues with the Iowa Writers Collaborative do.
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Dave Price: on a weekly basis. We very much appreciate the support, and frankly, you don’t know how important it is for you all
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Dave Price: Which is why I keep wanting to say this, thank you so much for just sharing it, telling your friends and family about it.
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Dave Price: That’s how we get this conversation to grow, so we very much appreciate you. Thank you as well to our producer, Spencer Dirks, for producing this week after week.
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Dave Price: We will talk to you next week.
By Iowa Writers Collaborative MembersWe recorded this one ahead last Friday so Dave can spend some well-earned spring break time with his family. Last week we got into the candidate filing deadline, and we wanted to drill into some of the more marquee races such as governor and senate. The last time Iowa had an open race for governor and a senate seat was in 1968 so almost 60 years.
In the senate race the prohibitive favorite on the republican side is Ashley Hinson, although Jim Carlin could pose a challenge. On the democratic side it seems to be a pretty close race between Josh Turek and Zach Wahls.
In the race for governor, it’s the inverse. The democrats have a frontrunner nominee in Rob Sand while the republican race is far from settled.
Reminder to share us with your friends and family, we appreciate all of you for helping us continue to grow this podcast. We’re getting consistently over 1,000 views and around 750 to over 1,000 video watches. Plus over 200 podcast downloads. It’s great to know people are still looking for and finding real news. Have a great weekend!
AI generated transcript below:
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Dave Price: Hi, everybody, welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I am Dave Price, joined by my fellow Iowa Writers Collaborative columnist, Kathie Obradovich and Laura Bellin. Hello, ladies.
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Laura Belin: Hello.
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Dave Price: I will… we’re gonna start with a confessional that we are recording this ahead of time.
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Dave Price: Totally because of me.
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Dave Price: Because I am going to be spending some time with my kids, and I did not want to… not that I don’t enjoy joining you every Friday, but…
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Dave Price: I wasn’t going to be able to work that out quite as easily, and didn’t want to stop the fun to do that. So thank you for recording in advance, but your words will transcend time limits. They will just live on your wisdom and insights that we’re going to share with the masses, correct?
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Kathie Obradovich: I don’t know.
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Dave Price: We’re terrified.
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Laura Belin: Well, we just… we just want people to understand that if there’s some massive breaking Iowa politics news story next week, that it’s not that we’ve purposely ignored it.
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Dave Price: Exactly, but they can find that, undoubtedly, in your other work. Correct. Which is perhaps not here. So we’re going to talk kind of big picture, and so now that we’ve gone past the filing deadline, we can start to look ahead, and this week, we want to zero in on the U.S. Senate race, because we have an open race.
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Dave Price: We have an open primary on both sides, we don’t get that a lot.
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Dave Price: I’m trying to do this off the top of my head, and I forget the stat. I wasn’t planning on saying this, but when… somebody already did the research. When was the last time we had open U.S. Senate race and open governor?
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Kathie Obradovich: 68.
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Dave Price: 68.
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Laura Belin: 1968.
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Dave Price: Okay. I knew it was a bit. Yep. So, who knows what we’re in store for? Let’s start with the Republican side. So, Joni Ernst, as we know, frankly, she’s honoring her campaign pledge that she said during a debate in 2014 that she said she would not do this more than two terms, right? And I think… was that prompted by Matt Whitaker? Did he say it first in that debate?
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Dave Price: Remember that?
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Laura Belin: I can’t remember whether it was Whitaker or one of the other candidates, that’s a good… but… and I can’t remember whether the person said it unprompted, or whether there was a specific question about the term limits.
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Dave Price: But so, you know, there was all this speculation, but she followed through with it, yeah.
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Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, that’s probably the least of the reasons why she’s not running.
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Laura Belin: I mean, she did tell several reporters in 2024 that she intended to run for a third term. She’s mentioned that to our Iowa Writers Collaborative colleague, Doug Burns. I’m pretty sure she also mentioned it to Breanne Fonschiel of the Des Moines Register, so something changed during calendar year 2025.
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Dave Price: I think in 24, she teased it at the roast and Ride, too, if I remember right, when I was there. I think she had… because Doug had already asked her about running, so yeah, it does seem like, you know, sort of a Kim Reynolds scenario, right? I mean, we…
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Laura Belin: Hmm.
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Dave Price: It seemed like both were running until they weren’t.
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Laura Belin: Right.
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Dave Price: Okay, so that’s the dynamics here, so she’s not going to run, so now we have this open primary on both sides. We talked about in last week’s show.
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Dave Price: how, while some people maybe don’t look at it like this, we can probably come up with a pretty good list of reasons why a competitive primary could be beneficial for candidates. Now, on the Republican side, we have to see if it will be a Republican primary, right?
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Laura Belin: Yeah, I mean, the Democratic primary is a true case where either candidate has a good chance of winning, whereas the Republican primary is much more of a heavy favorite versus a long shot. But Jim Carlin
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Laura Belin: He’s… I consider him a serious candidate. He got about a quarter of the vote as a primary challenger to Senator Chuck Grassley in 2022, so that’s…
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Laura Belin: Nothing to sneeze at. There are… there’s a big chunk of Republican voters who are not happy with the establishment, and Ashley Hinson is certainly the establishment candidate in this primary.
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Dave Price: Can I…
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Kathie Obradovich: A big part of Carlin’s, just the last time, though, running against Grassley, is completely different, because I think a big part of his argument, and the one that probably resonated most with voters, was that Grassley had just been there too long. He can’t make that argument against somebody in an open race. And secondly, I would just say.
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Kathie Obradovich: Carlin running against Ashley Hinson, from the right.
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Kathie Obradovich: Is a much harder path than running against Joni Ernst from the right one about.
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Laura Belin: Why, I mean, their voting records aren’t very different, though.
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Kathie Obradovich: But they’re a little bit different. I mean, I think Joni Ernst has been a much more reliable MAGA vote than… I mean, Ashley Hinson has been a much more reliable MAGA vote than Joni Ernst was. I think that Joni Ernst upset conservatives on a number of occasions, most recently, with her sort of wavering about Pete Hegsus.
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Kathie Obradovich: You know, his… And Elsa.
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Kathie Obradovich: She, yeah, his nomination. But she had done also, I think, bipartisan work. She made a point of working with Democrats, especially female senator Democrats over her period, and I just don’t think we’ve seen that same kind of thing from Ashley Hinson.
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Laura Belin: I think if you’re a MAGA nihilist, though, I mean, they both voted to certify the 2020 Electoral College count.
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Laura Belin: And they both voted for the, what was it, Respect for Marriage Act that acknowledged marriage equality. And so I think that there’s still gonna be a hardcore contingent who won’t be happy with Ashley Hinson.
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Dave Price: I… I think that the… there is a chunk in MAGA that definitely did not like Joni Ernst.
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Dave Price: I think we really saw that. Maybe Hegseth…
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Dave Price: Sort of blew that up, but…
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Dave Price: I mean, you know, she faced all kinds of threats.
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Dave Price: Both professionally and otherwise, because of her initial stance that…
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Dave Price: There’s some revisionist history, I think, with some of her critics on this, too. Never did she say early on with the Hegstass situation that he was terrible, his acts were terrible, the accusations were terrible, or that she could never confirm him, all that stuff.
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Dave Price: All she said and called for was the process, which is traditionally what happens in hearings, is the investigatory
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Dave Price: process into somebody’s background, and you try to feel them out, what they’re all about. And that is not… that was not what some in the party wanted.
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Kathie Obradovich: So, you know, I just think that…
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Kathie Obradovich: by saying that Hinson is a little bit more reliably MAGA. Yeah, Joni Ernst went along with the party, you know, the vast majority of the time. She, you know, I think had a…
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Kathie Obradovich: I wouldn’t say relationship with Donald Trump, but… but I always got the feeling from her that she was less than enthusiastic about him, you know, that she went along because she felt like that’s what she had to do. Whereas, you know, I don’t see that as much with Ashley Hinson, that there’s
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Kathie Obradovich: You know, potentially air between her positions and the president’s.
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Dave Price: And I forget how she phrased it, but she said…
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Dave Price: she’d be as big a supporter, or as big as ally, or something, I believe, when she launched
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Dave Price: her Senate campaign, and I’m not going to get the exact wordage right, but she made sure to stress
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Dave Price: how much of a supporter of the president that she was, and Ernst did… clearly did not do that during the caucus cycle. Now, during… in 2026, she has been very much
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Dave Price: a strong, vocal supporter of the president’s actions and policies.
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Laura Belin: So, by.
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Kathie Obradovich: Which is interesting, since she doesn’t have to be.
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Laura Belin: Hinson did not endorse Donald Trump before the 2024 caucuses, though. She endorsed him immediately after, and then Joni Ernst waited until Nikki Haley dropped out to endorse Trump. So I think that’s where some of the animosity comes from. But, I mean, let’s remember that Ashley Hinson really owes her entire career in Congress to Donald Trump’s coattails. She was elected in 2020. I think that many going into that election
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Laura Belin: didn’t see her as the favorite to beat Abby Finkenauer, and clearly, it was Donald Trump’s coattails that pulled her over the line, whereas Joni Ernst was elected to the Senate before Donald Trump even went down the escalator. So, I think that there is a difference in the relationship there.
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Dave Price: One thing I don’t know about Carlin, because I’ve spoken very little to him and have covered very little about him in the Senate campaign, and as somebody pointed out to me, he’s put in a bunch of his own money, I think a couple hundred thousand.
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Laura Belin: Correct.
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Dave Price: so he’s clearly committed to what he’s… what he’s trying to do, so I don’t know if he’s done some under-the-radar stuff that I’m not familiar with, where he’s out and done a ton of events, like…
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Dave Price: Brad Sherman didn’t necessarily send out tons and tons of media releases to let us know where he was, but when he filed for governor, he talked about he’s done, like, 250 events or something like that. So he’s been out to do it. I’m not saying he’s the frontrunner in the race for governor, but…
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Dave Price: Carlyn, I don’t know if he’s sort of made those moves where I just haven’t seen it, but with Hinson, the one thing that I noticed with her during the previous
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Dave Price: federal government shutdown, or the chunk of it that was shut down. Unlike some of the others, she was out all over the place.
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Dave Price: And…
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Dave Price: I don’t know that she really had to be. I mean, some other members did not do that, but she was all over the place, really leaning into kind of establishing those relationships, whether it was just for the primary, if she was thinking about that at all, but I thought she had a very aggressive
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Dave Price: Schedule during those 50-something days, or whatever that was, when things were shut down.
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Laura Belin: I think that Carlin, if you look at his Facebook page, I think he goes to a fair number of events, and not only Republican Party events, but things like gun shows, but I wanted to mention that Althea Cole, who’s the conservative columnist for the Cedar Rapids Gazette, she said something on a different podcast a few weeks ago that really struck me as true, which is that Jim Carlin, who’s from Sioux City.
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Laura Belin: If he could have run against Randy Feenstra in 2024 in that primary, when Randy Feenstra only got about 60% of the vote against Kevin Virgil, who was a total unknown, really, even 5 months before the primary. And you have to wonder, if Kevin Virgil was able to get
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Laura Belin: 40% of the vote. Could Jim Carlin, who already was better known in northwest Iowa, having run against Chuck Grassley already and served in the Iowa Senate, could he have been more successful as a primary challenger in the 4th District, rather than trying to run statewide on the lower resources that he has?
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Dave Price: Perhaps, but I wonder, with Virgil, though, he really leaned in so hard to the pipeline.
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Dave Price: That it felt like that really helped him sort of burst onto the scene.
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Laura Belin: That’s true. And build a following, and I wonder if that really helped him.
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Dave Price: Have the success that he did.
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Laura Belin: Carlin has the same position on the pipeline as Virgil. There’s no reason why he couldn’t have done that as well.
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Kathie Obradovich: One thing that’s interesting about this primary, I think, is to what extent Carlin will be able to drag Hinson to the right on some of this.
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Kathie Obradovich: some of these policies, I mean, Carlin,
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Dave Price: like Mary.
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Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, marriage, you know, I think, yeah, some of those, culture issues. Yeah, I mean, Hinson has been voting with the party, but that is not where she’s been putting her priority, is… other than
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Kathie Obradovich: Other than the anti-trans, you know, the gender identity issue that came out of.
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Kathie Obradovich: the Linn County School District. She really sort of emphasized that, before the last election. But, in general, she hasn’t really been, you know, somebody who makes that culture, you know, religious right, the main point of what she’s after. And Carlin has. I mean, that has been…
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Kathie Obradovich: you know, that has been his main, not necessarily in this race, but in the past, so…
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Laura Belin: brand stuff, Ashley Hinson is talking about all the time, every public appearance. She’s always… and that is not how she postured when she was a candidate for the Iowa House in 2016 and 2018 at all. But I’m curious to see whether she’ll agree to debate Jim Carlin.
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Laura Belin: I mean, I don’t know that she will, really. And I think that Jim Carlin could, just by highlighting things like the fact that she voted to certify the Electoral College count, which I don’t know that the Iowans in Congress would have done that if not for Marionette Miller-Meeks. There was this very awkward situation where Marionette Miller-Meeks was up by only 6 votes.
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Laura Belin: With 29, or whatever it was, absentee ballots not counted.
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Laura Belin: And they were all demanding that Marionette Miller-Meeks be seated in Congress, which of course she was, so everybody in the Iowa delegation voted to certify the Electoral College counts from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Arizona and the other disputed states, but that’s something that… I mean.
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Laura Belin: Jim Carlin is way out there on that issue. He went to one of Mike Lindell’s conferences with
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Laura Belin: Senator Sandy Salmon in 2021, and he was demanding for the election to be revoked. I mean, even, like, months after Joe Biden was in office, he was demanding that they decertify the 2020 election. So, if he really pushes that button hard, I don’t think that
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Laura Belin: That’s just probably not a conversation Ashley Hinson wants to have.
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Kathie Obradovich: And it’s also… I think that’s a rough conversation to have, in a primary
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Kathie Obradovich: if you are the winner, because that carries over, I think, to the general election when, you know, I think that the average, even… even right-leaning independents probably don’t want to talk about that. That’s not what, you know, that’s not a good general election issue, I don’t think.
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Dave Price: No, they’re looking at… yeah, they know that has been litigated again and again. Okay, on the Democratic side, so we have Josh Turek, the state legislator from Council Bluffs. We have Zach Walls, the state senator from Coralville.
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Dave Price: As they’ve both filed, they’re the two.
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Dave Price: This looks like, early on, like, this could be a very… competitive race, right?
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Dave Price: What’s this gonna come down to?
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Kathie Obradovich: Has anybody seen polling? So I was just looking… the New York Times, had some polling, well, they had a compilation of polls, and the most recent ones I’ve seen in that race was in early January, like, the first part of the year, where it showed… it was interesting, it showed, Hinson at 44%,
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Kathie Obradovich: Three points.
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Kathie Obradovich: ahead of both Walls and Turek. So, Turek and Walls basically tied, are equally competitive against, Ashley Hinson, and she was only 3 points ahead of either one of them at that time, but there’s been a lot of water under the bridge since January, and I just haven’t seen any other polling yet.
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Laura Belin: So, I haven’t seen that the general election polling since that one that showed
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Laura Belin: I was very struck by Ashley Hinson being below 50% against either of them, and then that was the one that after… so the initial ballot test, she was 2 or 3 points ahead, and then after hearing more information about the candidates, Ashley Hinson was tied with Turek and maybe a couple of points ahead of Walls. But I think the big takeaway is Ashley Hinson below 50%. But in terms of
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Laura Belin: primary polling, there was a Republican poll that showed Walls ahead of Turek, and then there was an internal Walls poll that showed Walls ahead of Turek, and the Turek campaign, to my knowledge, has not released any internal polling. So, I think that at this stage.
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Laura Belin: that Zach Walls maybe has a little bit of an advantage, but I don’t think it would be insurmountable. I mean, probably at this stage in 2022, Abby Finkenauer was still considered the heavy favorite against Mike Franken, who ended up winning that primary.
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Dave Price: I wonder what… what this comes down to for Democrats.
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Dave Price: Is it issue-driven? Is it… is it more which one of these guys can win?
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Dave Price: What’s gonna be the primary driver of conversation?
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Dave Price: For people who are truly…
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Kathie Obradovich: Wow.
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Dave Price: Sampling and trying to figure their minds out.
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Kathie Obradovich: I think that it… first and foremost, Democrats have to be looking at who can win.
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Kathie Obradovich: But their… their estimation of who can win, you know, is often driven by, you know, where they think the candidates are on issues, or just, you know, whether they like them on a personal level, you know, that gut feeling that they have. So, I mean, if you were to ask that in a poll, I think who can win is
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Kathie Obradovich: is the plurality, but what… what may, you know, which candidate can win, you know, typically people just go with the one that they like the best, so…
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Laura Belin: Well, the Turek campaign wants to make it all about electability. I mean, they’re always out there saying… Josh Turek is always reminding people, and this is true, I wrote about it after the 2024 election, he is the Democratic legislator who won the most Trump voting district that is held by a Democrat in 2024. I mean, if we’re not counting the special election that Mike Zimmer flipped that Senate seat. But just in the 2024 general election.
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Laura Belin: he did carry a district that Trump won handily, and whereas Zach Walls, coming from Johnson County, he’s never even had a Democratic, or had a Republican opponent at all. So that is the main Turek argument, for sure, is going to be, I’m battle-tested, I can win in November. Now, the Walls campaign, he has the majority of the union endorsements, so he’s gonna say he’s the best candidate for the working class. I don’t think labor endorsements
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Laura Belin: as important in Democratic primaries as they used to be a generation or two ago, but I certainly think it’s very helpful. And then, what we hear a lot from Walz and his supporters is that Josh Turek is the preferred candidate of Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and I just anecdotally, I hear people… that makes them wary when they think that the D.C. Democrats prefer Turek.
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Laura Belin: It makes them wonder why.
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Kathie Obradovich: M.
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Dave Price: Laura, when you’re out…
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Kathie Obradovich: That sort of soft idea that the DC Democrats prefer Turek, I think, becomes an advantage if they put… throw money to the campaign as a result, and I’m waiting to see if that has actually occurred. You know, if they put their money where their mouth is, that
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Kathie Obradovich: That turns a…
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Kathie Obradovich: you know, perhaps a disadvantage into, at least a wash, if not an advantage. But,
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Kathie Obradovich: But Walz, you know, he’s a well-known, Democrat in Iowa. He has had national attention, so I… so I think that he also… and, you know, I think that may be reflected some in his fundraising. He’s, you know, he’s not…
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Kathie Obradovich: prohibited… prohibitively ahead of Turek, but he is… he… he has raised a little bit more money. And also, as I mentioned last week, you know, I think he’s geographically well situated to, you know, really… he might be better known to more of the Democrats in the state just because of where he’s from.
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Laura Belin: I think, technically, Turek has raised more money, but Wells has more cash on hand, because.
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Kathie Obradovich: That’s a great campaign.
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Laura Belin: they’d spent more. But they’ve both raised a lot of money, but I was gonna say that kind of the flip side of…
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Laura Belin: well, the Democratic establishment wants Turek, and that’s one of Walz’s talking points, is that he’s the only person opposed by the establishment of both parties
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Laura Belin: from Turek’s people, they say, well, look, the Republicans are always talking about Zach Walls, they’re doing everything they can to elevate Zach Walls because he’s the one they want to run against. And we see, from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
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Laura Belin: They periodically put out a press release or a statement attacking walls, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen them put out a statement about Turek.
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Dave Price: And Hinson herself, I believe, has talked far more about walls.
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Laura Belin: Yes, I don’t know that she’s ever talked about Turek that I’ve heard. I’ve heard her several times name check Zach Walls.
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Dave Price: All right, much more to discuss in this race, and we’ll have 3 months to do it leading up to this primary.
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Dave Price: Thanks for the conversation, ladies. Have a great week ahead.
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Kathie Obradovich: You too.
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Laura Belin: True.
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Dave Price: Thanks to all of you.
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Kathie Obradovich: Wow.
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Dave Price: for joining us here on the Iowa Down Ballad podcast, and as we always like to close these shows, thank you so much to all of you who subscribe and share this podcast. It has been so fun and humbling for all of us to see how this conversation has grown from week to week.
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Dave Price: And we very much appreciate you. Thank you for supporting this. Thank you for supporting all the independent work that our colleagues with the Iowa Writers Collaborative do.
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Dave Price: on a weekly basis. We very much appreciate the support, and frankly, you don’t know how important it is for you all
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Dave Price: Which is why I keep wanting to say this, thank you so much for just sharing it, telling your friends and family about it.
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Dave Price: That’s how we get this conversation to grow, so we very much appreciate you. Thank you as well to our producer, Spencer Dirks, for producing this week after week.
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Dave Price: We will talk to you next week.