Pre-Primary Palooza: What to Watch Tuesday Night

A new poll from JMC Analytics has Zach Lahn at 24%, Feenstra at 22%, and Steen at 15% — with 27% still undecided. We’re not putting too much weight in it, but it would explain why Feenstra went negative this week, hitting Lahn over a past investment in a men’s health company. Frontrunners don’t attack candidates they aren’t worried about. An outside group sharing a consultant with the Lahn campaign also launched its own immigration hit on Feenstra, so the gloves are off heading into Tuesday.

Steen has the Family Leader network behind him, which has powered late surges before — but without TV money, he risks losing anti-Feenstra voters to Lahn if they consolidate around the more viable option.

Dave stopped by a Feenstra house party Wednesday night and came away puzzled. Terry Branstad, the Lt. Governor, the Secretary of Ag — a full Republican who’s who — but no energy, no closing argument, just the standard Pizza Ranch stump speech. Meanwhile Lahn has been packing town halls with 100-150 people. The contrast is hard to ignore.

On the Democratic side, VoteVets has dropped $10 million since mid-March for Josh Turek — more than Hubbell spent in all of 2018. Zach Wahls has the Iowa résumé and is leaning on an outsider frame, but electability seems to be the real tiebreaker for Democratic primary voters, and that spending has erased Turek’s early name ID gap fast.

We’ll know a lot more by next week. See you then.

A huge thank you to everyone who has already become a paid subscriber — your support is what keeps this conversation going. If you’ve been listening and haven’t yet, please consider subscribing or making a one-time donation through the link below. We’ve got a big year of Iowa politics ahead and we don’t want to stop now.

Auto-generated transcript below:

00:00:39.840 --> 00:00:49.230

Dave Price: Hi everyone, welcome to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. This is our pre-primary election Extravaganza.

10

00:00:49.350 --> 00:00:55.330

Dave Price: Hi, I’m Dave Price, joined by Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. Hello, ladies, how are you?

11

00:00:55.660 --> 00:01:02.849

Kathie Obradovich: Hello. Happy Friday. I think Primary Palooza is what we want to go with, don’t you think?

12

00:01:02.850 --> 00:01:04.859

Dave Price: Like, let’s start this sucker over again.

13

00:01:05.080 --> 00:01:05.989

Kathie Obradovich: No, no, no, no.

14

00:01:05.990 --> 00:01:11.849

Dave Price: I dug out… I was trying to think of a prop, you know, I keep different things.

15

00:01:11.850 --> 00:01:12.640

Laura Belin: This is from…

16

00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:17.069

Dave Price: there was, way back in the day.

17

00:01:17.240 --> 00:01:33.119

Dave Price: Back in my hometown in southern Illinois, Belleville, Illinois, there was a longtime member of Congress named Mel Price, Melvin Price. I do not believe we were related to him in any way, but,

18

00:01:33.190 --> 00:01:48.070

Dave Price: my dad was sort of, like, both ways. Like, for a while, he was involved in Democratic politics when he worked for this stove company, and he was, he worked, I remember once a month on Saturdays working for the union, and then he was kind of one of those,

19

00:01:48.070 --> 00:01:55.170

Dave Price: He got laid off during the Carter administration, he flipped over and became one of these Reagan Democrats and kind of stuck with…

20

00:01:55.420 --> 00:02:01.079

Dave Price: the Republicans most of the rest of his life, although he was a Ross Perot guy in there, too. My dad was a…

21

00:02:01.180 --> 00:02:15.670

Dave Price: He was a fascinating swing voter over the time. I should have… I wish I would have recorded more stories with him before he passed away. But anyway, this is my… I’ve always kept this, and since it doesn’t say Mel on there, then…

22

00:02:15.670 --> 00:02:16.700

Laura Belin: That’s right.

23

00:02:17.290 --> 00:02:20.559

Dave Price: when I… when I… when I launch one day.

24

00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:31.959

Kathie Obradovich: I could be your running mate, Dave, because I received a fortune in a fortune cookie just the other day that says, your determination will lead to victory in November.

25

00:02:31.960 --> 00:02:33.550

Dave Price: So…

26

00:02:34.510 --> 00:02:44.530

Kathie Obradovich: I don’t know whose fortune cookie I got, it clearly wasn’t intended for me, but it’s like, okay, I guess we’ve got a sort of a political bent here, so…

27

00:02:44.530 --> 00:02:52.939

Dave Price: A bunch of candidates who, who watch this podcast when it drops will probably reach out to you. Can we please have that fortune from you?

28

00:02:53.930 --> 00:02:57.720

Dave Price: Before Tuesday night. Hey, as we’re…

29

00:02:57.970 --> 00:03:20.430

Dave Price: as we’re gathering here, and we are gathering on… on Friday morning, there is a new poll that’s dropped, and Laura, maybe you can start us off. Can you be our asterisk, as we talk about this poll? Because this is a company that we don’t frankly know a lot about, and we are going to intentionally not put too much weight into this.

30

00:03:20.430 --> 00:03:26.039

Dave Price: It is one… new facet, perhaps, in this Republican gubernatorial race.

31

00:03:26.230 --> 00:03:37.469

Dave Price: But if it is true, or if it maybe has picked up on something, it does maybe make some sense with some recent developments that we’ve seen here, right?

32

00:03:37.620 --> 00:03:38.240

Laura Belin: Right.

33

00:03:38.530 --> 00:04:03.490

Laura Belin: So, JMC Analytics and Polling, and they say in their polling memo that they are not affiliated with any candidate running for governor or Senate in Iowa. So, they commissioned this poll of the Republican primary, and the big, shocking top line is that they found Zach Lane with 24% support, Randy Feenstra with 22%, and Adam Steen in third place.

34

00:04:03.490 --> 00:04:15.099

Laura Belin: with 15%, and then a huge number, 27%, undecided. So, if true, that would be very big, and, of course.

35

00:04:15.100 --> 00:04:39.979

Laura Belin: we’ve been saying for a while that Zach Lane, one of his big challenges would be to get his name ID up and consolidate support to allow him to overtake Feenstra, and this would suggest that all of his big spending on digital ads and TV ads may be paying off. Now, the Senate race was a little more of a snooze, with Ashley Henson way ahead, 58% to 19% over Jim Carlin, which is kind of

36

00:04:39.980 --> 00:04:42.640

Laura Belin: in line with, I think, what people would expect.

37

00:04:42.850 --> 00:04:43.580

Dave Price: And…

38

00:04:43.580 --> 00:05:01.400

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, so, I mean, if this poll is accurate, two things really jump out at me. One, of course, is that Zach Lane has moved into the lead, but two, nobody had 35%, which is what you need to win a primary. That big, undecided

39

00:05:01.440 --> 00:05:19.579

Kathie Obradovich: block, also means that, you know, regardless of what the polls say, it’s still… and this is always really important in primary anyway, it’s still about getting your voters out. So, who has the best, get out the vote? Is, you know, does Zach Lane, can he…

40

00:05:19.690 --> 00:05:30.150

Kathie Obradovich: stand up? Can his get-out-the-vote effort stand up to a really experienced politician like Randy Feenstrod? But, you know, it raises some really interesting questions, I think.

41

00:05:30.280 --> 00:05:48.079

Dave Price: And the get-out-the-vote, as we’ve talked about throughout this podcast, it is the test for Feenstra. Can he translate what he’s pulled off in the fourth, where Republicans always do well in the way that district is? Is it 36 counties, is that right?

42

00:05:48.080 --> 00:05:49.170

Laura Belin: 36 now, yes.

43

00:05:49.170 --> 00:06:09.199

Dave Price: 36 of the 99, so geographically, just a humongous chunk, but it is so heavily Republican there. So Feenstrait’s challenge all throughout has been the other three congressional districts, where would he turn out people there, but also really has to juice his numbers in the fourth, if he can do that, to try to up his game.

44

00:06:09.200 --> 00:06:17.839

Laura Belin: Well, and I don’t know that he can, because remember 2 years ago, he had a primary opponent, Kevin Virgil, who was backed by Steve King.

45

00:06:17.840 --> 00:06:36.569

Laura Belin: And Feenstra won that primary only by 60% to 40% against a guy, you know, hardly anyone had ever heard of 6 months before the primary, who Feenstra outspent by 10 to 1, or maybe more. So I don’t know that he can really count on Northwest Iowa being this solid base of support for him.

46

00:06:37.750 --> 00:06:39.470

Dave Price: Kathie, you saw the…

47

00:06:39.970 --> 00:06:58.990

Kathie Obradovich: I was just gonna say, I mean, it’s a huge geographic area, but, but, you know, you look at the, you know, the population, you know, it’s just a… the big population centers are all elsewhere in the state, so I… it is… it is difficult, I think, to win… win the state by winning the 4th district.

48

00:06:59.080 --> 00:07:00.160

Kathie Obradovich: So…

49

00:07:00.160 --> 00:07:02.160

Dave Price: Okay, so, let’s…

50

00:07:02.770 --> 00:07:16.660

Dave Price: We can talk about this poll, whether this is or isn’t accurate, and how, and as Laura’s pointed out, 126 times, I feel like, in your columns and on your show this year, it is tough to measure the primary electorate, right?

51

00:07:17.640 --> 00:07:19.369

Dave Price: Okay, so Kathie.

52

00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:22.539

Dave Price: What about here late in the game?

53

00:07:22.800 --> 00:07:32.940

Dave Price: So it would be Wednesday night, Thursday morning, I believe, when this thing dropped, but Feenstra, who from the get-go has been the perceived frontrunner in this race.

54

00:07:32.940 --> 00:07:44.429

Dave Price: he goes negative with an ad against Zach Lane. And just as a little bit of background, this goes back to a story that the Des Moines Register did several weeks back.

55

00:07:44.430 --> 00:07:48.700

Dave Price: that traced some investments, I think it’s a million bucks.

56

00:07:48.780 --> 00:07:57.990

Dave Price: that Lane had in the early part of this decade to a company that was focused on men’s, sexual health.

57

00:07:58.120 --> 00:08:06.600

Dave Price: Not really sure how the… the right way to phrase that. But Lane’s people are saying.

58

00:08:06.760 --> 00:08:11.950

Dave Price: That when the company started, it was more… Making…

59

00:08:12.070 --> 00:08:17.160

Dave Price: Helping men get healthier and stuff, dealing with the stuff that middle-aged and older guys deal with.

60

00:08:17.370 --> 00:08:25.990

Dave Price: When they transitioned more toward the pleasure side, if you will, he got out of there. Okay, so that’s the long-winded setup, so…

61

00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:39.840

Dave Price: what do you make from Feenster going negative, and then essentially in this ad alleging that, hey, Zach Lane says that he’s a guy representing Iowa values, but he put a million bucks into a company that makes sex toys?

62

00:08:40.120 --> 00:08:58.939

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I mean, I think that the top line there is, why would Randy Feensta bother to attack Zach Lane unless they were perceiving some sort of threat? So, you know, in a situation like this, if your opponent is less well-known.

63

00:08:58.940 --> 00:09:23.900

Kathie Obradovich: And, you know, not, you know, without the polling that we’ve just been talking about, I think you’re better off ignoring him as… and that’s been Randy Fink’s strategy all along, right? Ignoring his primary opponents and going, you know, looking beyond them to the general election. This runs against that strategy, and so I can only conclude that they’ve decided

64

00:09:23.900 --> 00:09:27.920

Kathie Obradovich: that Zach Lane is a threat, and that they need to try to knock him down.

65

00:09:29.070 --> 00:09:52.539

Laura Belin: On the latest On Iowa Politics podcast, Tom Barden of the Cedar Rapids Gazette said that he’s been talking with Republican activists, and they’ve shared some internal polling numbers that suggest that both Feenstra and Lane’s internal polling have Feenstra below 30%, which is… which would explain why Feenster would be going negative against Lane. But there’s also this outside group.

66

00:09:52.540 --> 00:09:58.060

Laura Belin: that just this week started running a hit piece on an attack ad on Feenstra saying that.

67

00:09:58.060 --> 00:10:17.109

Laura Belin: he’s weak on immigration, or that he failed Iowa on immigration. Of course, that’s such a big issue for Republican candidates and politicians, and this added… I… I don’t know all the details about this program. It goes back to when Randy Feenster was the city administrator of Hull.

68

00:10:17.170 --> 00:10:35.130

Laura Belin: I sensed that the ad is a little bit misleading, because it implies that he gave benefits to illegal immigrants, which I think is more like the city had a program to try to be welcoming to immigrants, period, not specifically undocumented immigrants, but in any case.

69

00:10:35.130 --> 00:10:52.120

Laura Belin: According to an Iowa Democratic Party memo, the group that is behind this outside spending ad attacking Randy Feenstra shares a consultant with Zach Lane’s campaign. So, it’s not directly coming from Lane, but that would suggest that Lane’s

70

00:10:52.120 --> 00:10:56.050

Laura Belin: people see an opening and an opportunity to take down Feenstra.

71

00:10:56.300 --> 00:11:15.329

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I mean, if you look at Feenster’s voting record in Congress, he spent 100% with the Trump administration on all the… all the immigration issues, so going back that many years, for a hit on immigration, is, a little surprising to me, so…

72

00:11:15.550 --> 00:11:25.760

Dave Price: Wanted to share two more things about this race. One, and I’m gonna say them both so I don’t forget them both, and I’m guzzling coffee, too, because my dog had me up overnight, so I’m…

73

00:11:25.890 --> 00:11:32.350

Dave Price: I’m still trying to get the neurons firing here, so sorry to be rude, I hate to drink on the podcast, but it’s only coffee.

74

00:11:33.010 --> 00:11:43.470

Dave Price: Two things. We have not yet talked much about Adam Steen, so I wanted to say that before I forget. And then also, I wanted to talk about this house party,

75

00:11:43.620 --> 00:11:52.299

Dave Price: involving Feenster on Wednesday night, so I’m only saying this out loud so you two can please help me remember so I don’t forget either one of those things. Can we do Adam Steen first? Because…

76

00:11:52.410 --> 00:12:07.009

Dave Price: His campaign has intrigued me throughout, in the sense that he has Bob Vanderplatz from the family leader behind him, Steve Days, who used to be a talk show host in Iowa, and now has a national platform. He is also frequently…

77

00:12:07.100 --> 00:12:22.949

Dave Price: talked about and supported, Adam Steen publicly. Dace did, a couple of days ago, do a social media post where he offered a little context on the race, which talked about how Lane was possibly

78

00:12:22.950 --> 00:12:41.280

Dave Price: on the rise, which I thought was interesting to say that in a public setting like that, and he still supports Adam Steen. But what do you two make about this? Now, if that poll that you’re talking about, Laura, is accurate, or has at least picked up a trend here, that could make some sense, right? Like, the…

79

00:12:41.280 --> 00:12:46.310

Dave Price: we’ll see how powerful… what kind of say Bob Vanderplatz has in this state.

80

00:12:46.750 --> 00:12:54.670

Dave Price: But there should be a built-in network if it’s behind Steen, even though he’s not raised a ton of money, there should be some kind of…

81

00:12:54.850 --> 00:12:59.949

Dave Price: Get-out-the-vote kind of apparatus, that he should be a legit

82

00:13:00.880 --> 00:13:04.109

Dave Price: contender in this, in this primary, right?

83

00:13:05.170 --> 00:13:11.179

Dave Price: And it’s hard for us to measure it because the absence of primary polling and all that kind of stuff, but in theory, right?

84

00:13:11.210 --> 00:13:21.550

Laura Belin: We’ve seen candidates with support from that wing of the Iowa GOP have had these late surges, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum…

85

00:13:21.900 --> 00:13:32.980

Laura Belin: Ted Cruz, who won the 2016 caucuses, so definitely that network, that kind of church-affiliated, social conservative network, I think the dangerous thing

86

00:13:33.250 --> 00:13:44.260

Laura Belin: for Steen is that since he doesn’t have the money to compete, he’s run a few TV ads, but really he hasn’t been able to compete with Feenstra and Lane in the paid advertising.

87

00:13:44.260 --> 00:13:44.580

Dave Price: Yeah.

88

00:13:44.580 --> 00:14:04.309

Laura Belin: So, I think that if these undecided voters are… if they start to see Lane as the more credible option to block Randy Feenstra, then Steen might lose some of that support. But he could definitely outperform his polling just based on having that network, which we’ve seen can drive people to the polls in Iowa.

89

00:14:04.530 --> 00:14:12.859

Dave Price: Kathie, our good friend, Kay Henderson from Radio Iowa, had a story this week. She covered one of Steen’s events.

90

00:14:13.150 --> 00:14:30.069

Dave Price: Along with a colleague, I believe, from her radio network, and Steen was lamenting this feeling of apathy that some in the primary universe are feeling, and he acknowledged that’s a challenge, and they’re gonna have to get these people motivated after the…

91

00:14:30.090 --> 00:14:35.810

Dave Price: after the primary and stuff like that. What… what do you… what do you make about…

92

00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:40.160

Dave Price: Where he is in this… in this race.

93

00:14:40.340 --> 00:14:57.800

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I mean, when you think about Steen, you know, the first thing that comes to mind for me is that, you know, he is… he is the ultimate culture warrior, it seems like, in this race, that his… his message has really been steeped in, you know.

94

00:14:57.800 --> 00:15:18.080

Kathie Obradovich: the… and it makes sense, then, that the family leader and the evangelical wing of the party would be backing him, but I mean, it’s really about, Christian values, his claim to fame as the administrator of the administrative services in the Reynolds administration was

95

00:15:18.080 --> 00:15:30.999

Kathie Obradovich: you know, keeping the Satanic Temple from having an event in the capital. So, I mean, I think his, his message is very much focused on that culture, you know, culture division issue.

96

00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:53.939

Kathie Obradovich: Whereas Zach Lane, I think, has most… yes, he’s a conservative, and I would argue that he’s a religious conservative as well, but he has really focused his message more on economic issues, so talking about, you know, big corporations, you know, the, hurting the, family farmer, hurting small business in Iowa.

97

00:15:54.870 --> 00:16:11.920

Kathie Obradovich: And, you know, his approach, and also the environment and health. So these… I think that the messages are fundamentally different, and it could be a sign that the economic message is edging out some of this culture war stuff that we’ve seen.

98

00:16:11.920 --> 00:16:16.770

Kathie Obradovich: Culture War has been really successful over the last, you know.

99

00:16:16.860 --> 00:16:23.460

Kathie Obradovich: decade, but maybe we’re seeing the economic message, sort of surpass that now.

100

00:16:23.460 --> 00:16:32.020

Laura Belin: Well, I just saw somebody linked to… Adam Steen had a campaign video up talking about water quality, and I thought, well, that’s interesting, because…

101

00:16:32.650 --> 00:16:55.810

Laura Belin: Chris Jones and Zach Lane have been stressing that, and I mean, maybe Adamstein feels like that’s an issue he needs to respond on. We don’t normally hear people talking about water quality in a Republican primary, but I just looked up the turnout from the 2022 Republican primary, when just under 200,000 ballots were cast.

102

00:16:55.810 --> 00:17:12.840

Laura Belin: And the overwhelming majority, more than 80% of those, were cast on Election Day, so I think it’s really hard. I was thinking, going into this year, that we could have a really high turnout GOP primary with such a scrambled race for governor, and also open seats, but the congressional races

103

00:17:12.839 --> 00:17:22.080

Laura Belin: have turned out to be, you know, mostly non-competitive primaries, except for in that first district with Miller-Meeks and David Pouch. That’s the only one that’s heavily

104

00:17:22.079 --> 00:17:39.339

Laura Belin: contested, so I just don’t know. I’ve heard that early voting has been very light with Republicans. Of course, we know Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day, so I think that’s just a big question mark for me, is how many people are gonna care enough to show up to cast a ballot in this governor’s race.

105

00:17:39.880 --> 00:17:55.869

Dave Price: Kathie, as we’ve talked about here on the podcast, to sort of add another point to your point, about the cultural issues, that is what’s made me wonder, looking at the field of five, and we haven’t even mentioned Brad Sherman and Eddie Andrews in this podcast yet, but…

106

00:17:56.110 --> 00:18:06.069

Dave Price: I appreciate that if you got all 5 of them together in a room, they might find some nuances where they disagree when it comes to these, more cultural issues.

107

00:18:06.280 --> 00:18:15.430

Dave Price: But by and large, thematically, there wouldn’t be a lot of differences, necessarily. Now, maybe, maybe they talk differently.

108

00:18:15.540 --> 00:18:32.340

Dave Price: Maybe they would take the… I’ve never heard Feenstra talk about his, supportive life at conception, for example, and I think the other four, throughout this campaign have talked about that. So that could be a… that could be a substantial difference, perhaps, with some in the… in the primaries, but…

109

00:18:32.340 --> 00:18:38.110

Dave Price: To your point about, you know, how Steen has kind of really embraced this, no doubt.

110

00:18:38.420 --> 00:18:52.709

Dave Price: But I don’t know that that brings the separation from some of the others, so maybe his effectiveness, and I mean, he is very good, when you watch him. He’s a very good communicator, his presence, you saw that in the debate.

111

00:18:52.710 --> 00:19:06.079

Dave Price: I mean, he is very skilled at that kind of stuff, so maybe the delivery and the network and stuff allows him to maybe do a late-game surge here, a late campaign surge, but I’ve just wondered how he’s going to have that

112

00:19:06.410 --> 00:19:09.750

Dave Price: True separation, but as we also know, though.

113

00:19:10.300 --> 00:19:26.369

Dave Price: you don’t really need to win on Tuesday, you just need to make sure nobody else wins, right? And then you… and then you take your shot with the… with the delegates at the state convention, so you don’t get 35. As long as Feenstra doesn’t get 35, then, you know, you live to see another day.

114

00:19:26.370 --> 00:19:37.650

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, but the convention is such a crapshoot, you know, because, you know, you don’t… first of all, the delegates don’t even have to, I mean.

115

00:19:37.650 --> 00:19:39.640

Dave Price: Anyway, this is your chance, Kevin.

116

00:19:39.640 --> 00:19:43.669

Kathie Obradovich: Well, you’ve already got the bumper sticker, you know?

117

00:19:43.670 --> 00:19:44.040

Dave Price: fortunate.

118

00:19:44.040 --> 00:19:44.760

Kathie Obradovich: You think they missed.

119

00:19:44.760 --> 00:19:45.770

Dave Price: That’s far more powerful.

120

00:19:45.770 --> 00:19:53.669

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, so, I mean, the point being they can nominate some rando, like you and me, and not…

121

00:19:53.670 --> 00:19:55.079

Dave Price: That would be a rando.

122

00:19:55.080 --> 00:20:10.459

Kathie Obradovich: Not even go with the candidates who are actually running in the primary. Not that they… I don’t think we’ve ever seen that happen, but yeah, that’s, you know, so you start thinking about, well, who would have, the best shot?

123

00:20:10.930 --> 00:20:22.540

Kathie Obradovich: in a convention situation, and, you know, it’s hard to say, you know? Again, it’s about who shows up, and whose people show up. I’m hoping…

124

00:20:22.540 --> 00:20:33.559

Kathie Obradovich: that these candidates are all smart enough that they would have a convention strategy, and we have been working on that. But, but yeah, it’s… you know, I think that

125

00:20:33.560 --> 00:20:39.999

Kathie Obradovich: If that poll that we were just talking about is accurate, and everybody is sort of hanging below

126

00:20:40.290 --> 00:20:42.920

Kathie Obradovich: 35%.

127

00:20:43.130 --> 00:21:01.190

Kathie Obradovich: you know, again, I can’t emphasize enough, it’s really about whose people turn out on election day. And, you know, again, I think Steen punches above his weight on Election Day just because of the family leader and their… their get-out-the-vote experience.

128

00:21:01.190 --> 00:21:15.239

Kathie Obradovich: You know, I don’t know what Zach Lane’s Get Out the Vote, operation looks like, but, he’s had a lot of help from Vote Vets and, you know, some third-party or, you know, outside organizations that may…

129

00:21:15.240 --> 00:21:15.580

Dave Price: not.

130

00:21:15.580 --> 00:21:17.329

Kathie Obradovich: Helping with that.

131

00:21:17.330 --> 00:21:19.320

Dave Price: Zach Lane with Boat Bets?

132

00:21:19.540 --> 00:21:23.390

Kathie Obradovich: Oh, no, I’m sorry. No, I’m conflating,

133

00:21:23.390 --> 00:21:23.960

Laura Belin: No, yeah.

134

00:21:23.960 --> 00:21:32.680

Kathie Obradovich: I guess I’m tired, too. He’s had, you know, he’s had some help, too, from some, you know, PAC groups, so…

135

00:21:32.680 --> 00:21:38.670

Laura Belin: He claims to have a big field operation, but, you know, it’s all come together very last minute, so…

136

00:21:38.780 --> 00:21:55.239

Laura Belin: It’s a wild… this is basically the outcome that Rob Sand would want, you know, a scrambled, messy GOP primary, especially if it goes to convention, I think that would be kind of the best possible outcome for Democrats, because

137

00:21:55.240 --> 00:22:02.230

Laura Belin: There are going to be hard feelings, and it’s unpredictable, and it just delays the whole process of Republicans coming together.

138

00:22:02.500 --> 00:22:09.560

Dave Price: Okay, so, I wanted to share one thing, and it’s one of those things that… I don’t know if it’s something or not something.

139

00:22:09.780 --> 00:22:18.789

Dave Price: So I don’t want to overblow it. It’s sort of like the way we’re treating this poll. We don’t want to overblow what this is, and let’s be honest, that’s what we try to do on the podcast anyway here.

140

00:22:18.790 --> 00:22:31.580

Dave Price: Is that… because a lot of this is nuances, right? Like, Laura, you brought up early on, it would be surprising if Lane can be a legit top-tier contender by getting into the race so late, right?

141

00:22:32.160 --> 00:22:40.619

Dave Price: And we will find… that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. He could… he may become the nominee. Like, we did no definitive, like, there’s no way this is gonna happen.

142

00:22:40.740 --> 00:22:47.359

Dave Price: Okay, so this is another one of these things, and I brought it up to you, both of you, privately, before we started the recording.

143

00:22:47.770 --> 00:22:54.480

Dave Price: What I… a good friend of me years ago had recommended, like, in the last week or two of a campaign.

144

00:22:54.660 --> 00:23:01.599

Dave Price: Do your best to get to as many as you can, and, like, talk to people, but sort of get in the back of the room to, like, feel.

145

00:23:02.150 --> 00:23:21.320

Dave Price: like, what does it feel like? Is there juice? Is there not juice? And going way back when Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst reigned in 2014, I remember what that was like, and I remember going to some Braley rallies versus some Ernst rallies, and Ernst, you could feel the juice and energy, and Braley, you could not, right? And I could give a long…

146

00:23:21.320 --> 00:23:29.380

Dave Price: laundry list of things where you could sort of feel that. So I was really trying to do that at the Feenstra event, because Feenstra…

147

00:23:29.390 --> 00:23:36.669

Dave Price: And I don’t pretend to get to every rally, because there’s no way you can in this state, it’s too stinkin’ big, but…

148

00:23:36.910 --> 00:23:50.009

Dave Price: I wanted to see… alright, down the stretch, it’s a Wednesday house party hosted by the mayor of West Des Moines, Russ Trimble, who is also a long-time Senate Republican caucus staffer, and I believe he was on the caucus staff.

149

00:23:50.220 --> 00:23:53.260

Dave Price: when Feenstra was a state senator, I’m pretty sure.

150

00:23:53.260 --> 00:23:54.630

Laura Belin: Yes, he was.

151

00:23:54.630 --> 00:24:04.880

Dave Price: So, he and his wife hosted this party, and it was, as Aaron Murphy, pointed out in his story covering it from Wednesday night, it was sort of like a who’s who, right?

152

00:24:04.880 --> 00:24:15.119

Dave Price: Terry Bransted was there, so it was good to see. He’s had… he’s had a lot of serious health issues. He’s in a wheelchair now, so he really… he’s dealing with a bunch of stuff, but you could tell he was sort of…

153

00:24:15.210 --> 00:24:26.829

Dave Price: I think he was happy to be back in the game, and he was an endorser of Feenstra, and he spoke, before Feenstra did as well. His wife was there, various mayors, metro, city council members.

154

00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:37.409

Dave Price: Lieutenant Governor Chris Knoyer was there, Secretary of Ag Mike Nank was there. The one thing that was interesting to me was that it was definitely not like a pep rally-like…

155

00:24:37.840 --> 00:24:50.499

Dave Price: get out the boat kind of thing at, like, an event center type thing, where you’ve got a bunch of screaming people, let’s go, you know, kind of thing. It… no doubt it was a who’s who kind of thing.

156

00:24:50.590 --> 00:25:03.009

Dave Price: But Feenstra kind of did his standard stump speech at this, which was a lot about his biography, and meeting his wife at a pizza ranch, and all this stuff, and when he worked at the candy company and all that. And I just found it…

157

00:25:03.210 --> 00:25:10.689

Dave Price: Kind of an interesting thing to do so late in the game, that this is how they chose to spend their time.

158

00:25:10.840 --> 00:25:24.289

Dave Price: And it may totally be nothing, and Feanstra gets 42% on primary night, and I’m like, I’m crazy. Like, I’m making something of nothing. But it was just interesting to me that late in the game, this is how they thought

159

00:25:24.970 --> 00:25:31.280

Dave Price: Would be… I don’t know that it was a campaign fundraiser, I didn’t honestly ask, I don’t think it was.

160

00:25:31.540 --> 00:25:34.100

Dave Price: It was just an interesting…

161

00:25:34.300 --> 00:25:39.410

Dave Price: gathering. Like, this felt to me like something you would do maybe 6 months ago?

162

00:25:39.730 --> 00:25:49.060

Dave Price: when you’re maybe giving a little inside strategy to all these VIPs about, here’s what we’re gonna do, and blah blah blah. So I don’t know if it’s anything at all, and I guess we’ll know Tuesday night, but it…

163

00:25:49.060 --> 00:25:49.570

Kathie Obradovich: Cheers.

164

00:25:49.570 --> 00:25:51.580

Dave Price: Struck me as a little interesting.

165

00:25:51.920 --> 00:26:09.099

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, Robin Opsel covered it for Iowa Capital Dispatch, and as I was reading the story, I responded back, you know, we Slack back and forth as we’re editing, etc, and one of my questions was, you know, was this a, you know.

166

00:26:09.100 --> 00:26:15.409

Kathie Obradovich: Was this a fundraiser, or was this open to the public? I mean, was this an invitation-only event?

167

00:26:15.410 --> 00:26:18.809

Kathie Obradovich: And Robin responded that it felt like a fundraiser.

168

00:26:18.810 --> 00:26:20.240

Dave Price: And it very well could have been.

169

00:26:20.240 --> 00:26:20.850

Kathie Obradovich: I just didn’t.

170

00:26:20.850 --> 00:26:21.850

Dave Price: And that’s on me.

171

00:26:21.850 --> 00:26:33.080

Kathie Obradovich: But it… but not… that’s not really the kind of thing you do with your closing argument, that you bring in, you know, the who’s who of Republican politics.

172

00:26:33.160 --> 00:26:57.920

Kathie Obradovich: Only. I mean, it seems like you want to show support, not just from the establishment core of the party, but you want to show that you’ve got, you know, public that are excited about you, and… and yeah, I… this event was not that, definitely not. So, so… and for you to say that he gave a

173

00:26:57.920 --> 00:27:06.439

Kathie Obradovich: standard stump speech that, you know, everybody, first of all, everybody has heard before, but all these people who already know Randy Feenstra already know.

174

00:27:06.440 --> 00:27:31.390

Kathie Obradovich: You know, he’s not giving you a strategy on how he’s gonna win, he’s telling you that he met his wife in a pizza ranch. So I… I do think it’s a… it was an odd type of event. And when you think about how few events did they actually even notify the media about, let alone invite reporters to come, I mean, this is the one that they wanted to be out there from Central Iowa, and this is, you know, this is what they’re doing, so…

175

00:27:31.730 --> 00:27:37.569

Dave Price: And it was Terry Brainstead’s return, first time he’s been out there, so that was, I’m sure, a big deal for the campaign.

176

00:27:37.570 --> 00:27:38.390

Laura Belin: Well…

177

00:27:38.400 --> 00:27:45.949

Laura Belin: I’m at a disadvantage because Randy Feenstra’s campaign doesn’t have me on their press list, so I did not know about this event or attend this event, but…

178

00:27:45.950 --> 00:27:58.629

Laura Belin: I think it’s absolutely deranged to do an insider’s house party in the final week of a very competitive primary. As you said, Dave, this is something that maybe you do 6 months ago, but

179

00:27:58.630 --> 00:28:15.300

Laura Belin: But in general, Randy Feenstra’s campaign has never tried to build a crowd for anything. He’s been doing these small pizza ranch gatherings for 20 or 25 or fewer people, and meanwhile, Zach Lane is doing these big

180

00:28:15.300 --> 00:28:26.060

Laura Belin: packed town hall meetings where he’s able to get 100 or 150 people there, and I just don’t… I think that Randy Feenstra and his handlers

181

00:28:26.060 --> 00:28:44.739

Laura Belin: they never really gave him an opportunity to learn how to get better at this. This is why Rob San does 100 town halls a year, and you get a lot better at developing a feel for the crowd and getting a sense of what people want to hear from you, and he just doesn’t seem to have that capacity.

182

00:28:46.500 --> 00:29:00.430

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I… it is odd, and, you know, I think, you know, that Randy Feenstra’s supporters have raised concerns about the approach to the campaign.

183

00:29:00.570 --> 00:29:25.419

Kathie Obradovich: You know, at different times as well. And, so yeah, and it’s not that he’s not getting around the state, because I think he has, it’s just, as you just said, Laura, these are small events, and for the most part, they’re not inviting the media, so they’re, you know, they’re sort of happening in a vacuum while everything that the other candidates are doing, they’re making sure that they’re, inviting the media, get, you know, trying to get some of that sort of earned

184

00:29:26.090 --> 00:29:34.280

Kathie Obradovich: Media to help, you know, expand or amplify what they’re trying to do with their advertising.

185

00:29:35.000 --> 00:29:51.569

Dave Price: Okay, we’ve spent a lot of time on this competitive race because we have so many developments on this. Let’s close out with the Senate Democrats, though. This is simpler since we have two people here, right? Zach Walls and Josh Turek. So much outside spending.

186

00:29:51.890 --> 00:30:05.229

Dave Price: that probably gives Zach Wall’s nightmares about this 10 million plus, or whatever it is, outside money benefiting Josh Turek, which… that is a lot to overcome.

187

00:30:05.340 --> 00:30:12.050

Dave Price: There’s no way that Zach Walls is going to be able to compete financially with an ad blitz.

188

00:30:12.720 --> 00:30:26.780

Dave Price: Perhaps he was a little better well-known, maybe, when this race started, but that really gets Josh Turek’s biographical story out to the masses pretty quickly and in a big-time way, Laura.

189

00:30:27.390 --> 00:30:51.070

Laura Belin: Yeah, I went back and looked. This is more than Fred Hubbell spent going into the 2018 Democratic primary. I think he spent $6 or $7 million, which is a lot for a Democratic primary. And I think it’s clear, earlier this year, there were a couple of polls that seemed to show Zach Walls ahead of Josh Sturek, I think, because Walls had higher name ID. And so, when you have…

190

00:30:51.070 --> 00:30:54.230

Laura Belin: one outside group, VoteVets, spending

191

00:30:54.230 --> 00:31:12.090

Laura Belin: far more, several times more than both Walls and Turek combined, it is hard to compete, and we have not seen any last-minute attack ads on TV, so I think that that suggests that Turek’s people feel pretty comfortable with where they are going into the primary.

192

00:31:12.910 --> 00:31:17.979

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, we’ve got, you know, I tried to bring up VoteBets earlier, mistakenly, but… but that’s a $10 million.

193

00:31:17.980 --> 00:31:19.489

Dave Price: Too many Zachs in this race.

194

00:31:19.490 --> 00:31:20.130

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah.

195

00:31:20.130 --> 00:31:20.720

Dave Price: Problem.

196

00:31:20.720 --> 00:31:32.920

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, well, I was drinking coffee, but apparently not enough. Yeah, so Boat Vets, though, has spent $10 million in this race, to benefit Turek.

197

00:31:32.920 --> 00:31:50.629

Kathie Obradovich: And so that is… and that’s just since mid-March. So, you know, you think, you know, you look at the, you know, probably several million more have been spent since then. And, you know, much… yes, Zach Wells has some outside spending as well.

198

00:31:50.630 --> 00:32:03.089

Kathie Obradovich: But nothing approaching that $10 million figure. So, I mean, you know, I do, think that Zach Wells has been trying to insulate himself a little bit, by, you know.

199

00:32:03.210 --> 00:32:21.309

Kathie Obradovich: giving, Turek a hard time about, his, you know, quote, dark money and support from the national, Senate, Democratic leadership, etc. But, you know, ultimately,

200

00:32:21.360 --> 00:32:36.750

Kathie Obradovich: you know, I think Turek’s, one of his biggest disadvantages was his, lack of name ID compared to, Zach Walls, and all of this spending really sort of erased… erased that issue, so…

201

00:32:37.120 --> 00:32:40.449

Dave Price: Laura, you may be the best,

202

00:32:41.770 --> 00:33:00.740

Dave Price: best one in touch with a lot of these, primary groups, democratic groups and primary activists and that, not to discount any of Kathie sources. But I know you go and speak to some of these groups sometime. And I had wondered, going into this race,

203

00:33:01.060 --> 00:33:11.820

Dave Price: When you look at policy between these two, sort of same thing we said from the Republican gubernatorial field, no doubt you’re gonna find some nuanced differences, how they talk about stuff.

204

00:33:12.030 --> 00:33:28.780

Dave Price: How they stress certain things, whatever. But what was going to be more important to the primary electorate, where Democrats have had their teeth kicked in for so many straight elections in this state, right? And so you have…

205

00:33:29.110 --> 00:33:35.560

Dave Price: One guy who represents A purple at best, if not slightly red…

206

00:33:35.990 --> 00:33:42.330

Dave Price: District, but one, versus a guy whose present district is very blue.

207

00:33:42.350 --> 00:33:57.200

Dave Price: And I was always wondering through this whole process, and I guess we find out Tuesday, I wish we had some good exit polls on this, but that if there’s, like, a tiebreaker for people who are the ones who are going to show up in that primary, are they looking at electability

208

00:33:57.250 --> 00:34:06.290

Dave Price: And if they’re like, alright, Turek represents an area where it’s tougher to win, you know, is that a tiebreaker for them? You know, like, how many people are thinking like that?

209

00:34:06.360 --> 00:34:22.480

Laura Belin: I think, anecdotally, a ton of Democrats are thinking about electability. I’ve heard that from so many people, but they really like both these guys. They’re just trying to figure out who has the best chance to win. I mean, there’s intense frustration, though, from the people who support Zach Walls.

210

00:34:22.480 --> 00:34:42.259

Laura Belin: about this mountain of outside money, and the way it seems to be tied to Washington, D.C, even though it’s not directly from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. People remember how Washington, D.C. Democrats got involved in the 2016 primary for Patty Judge, and then in the 2020 primary.

211

00:34:42.260 --> 00:34:53.030

Laura Belin: for Teresa Greenfield, and neither of those candidates were successful, so I think there’s a lot of frustration. But electability, I do think that’s been one of the biggest things driving people

212

00:34:53.030 --> 00:35:12.499

Laura Belin: to Turek, because there aren’t a lot of differences on the issue. There are a few things where their votes are different, but ideologically, these candidates are much more similar than what we’ve seen in some Democratic primaries, where there’s more of, let’s say, an establishment candidate, and then more of a Bernie Sanders-type candidate.

213

00:35:13.760 --> 00:35:20.109

Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, it… the outside money cuts both ways, I mean, and this is something that we… I think we’ve talked about here with the…

214

00:35:20.110 --> 00:35:43.719

Kathie Obradovich: you know, sort of argument by Zach Walls against Turk of being, you know, the… being Chuck Schumer’s boy, you know? That outside money, comes in handy in the general election, where the, you know, we know that Ashley Hinson, what has she got, like, $7 million in the bank or something like that? I mean, we know she’s well-funded, we know that she will have access to whatever resources

215

00:35:43.720 --> 00:35:59.020

Kathie Obradovich: that she needs or wants. And so, you know, yes, does it make people queasy that, you know, our, you know, primary is being fueled here by, you know, millions and millions of dollars of outside money?

216

00:35:59.020 --> 00:36:05.920

Kathie Obradovich: Probably. But on the other hand, you can’t, fight fire with, you know.

217

00:36:05.920 --> 00:36:21.739

Kathie Obradovich: crumbs. So, you, you do have, there is that competitive issue, and, and, and I, I think that it’s… it is a different era than, you know, when we were talking about,

218

00:36:21.800 --> 00:36:27.779

Kathie Obradovich: you know, Patty Judge’s campaign, for example. So, it’ll be… it’ll be interesting to see what happens. I mean, the…

219

00:36:27.780 --> 00:36:50.990

Kathie Obradovich: that outside money, yeah, it does make people sick, I think, and, you know, it undermines credibility when candidates are talking about, you know, well, we’re gonna, you know, we’re gonna fight the special interests, you know, when the special interests are the ones who sent you, right? But yeah, and on the other hand, you’ve got to have money to be competitive in the general election.

220

00:36:51.360 --> 00:37:16.149

Dave Price: And we… it’s not like Zach Walz hasn’t raised any money, so we don’t want to make it sound like, while he doesn’t benefit from this outside money, he had… they both have raised about the same amount of money as a… as a campaign, right? All throughout. Walz has kind of made this theme that I’m also curious, you know, without the policy differences or substantial differences between

221

00:37:16.150 --> 00:37:19.609

Dave Price: the two of them. He has largely run this

222

00:37:19.610 --> 00:37:30.180

Dave Price: Turek’s this insider guy. I’m out there to take on the system. He had Elizabeth Warren here to campaign with them, and I’m wondering how strong

223

00:37:30.180 --> 00:37:47.660

Dave Price: for those who are sort of disgusted by the outside money, how strong is that faction? And is that enough for him to turn out enough primary voters to overcome this massive ad blitz that Turek is able to, to benefit from?

224

00:37:48.710 --> 00:37:59.610

Kathie Obradovich: I mean, Zach Walsh has a lot of experience, I think, in, in turning out voters. You know, I do think that he,

225

00:37:59.610 --> 00:38:10.010

Kathie Obradovich: he’s, you know, a younger candidate. He can talk about, you know, sort of the next generation of leadership, although not that he’s that much younger than Josh Turk.

226

00:38:10.010 --> 00:38:29.250

Kathie Obradovich: But I, you know, I have to, you know, if… I would, you know, give the edge to walls when it turns… when it comes to get out the vote, except for, as I said before, that, you know, vote vets, etc. I think it’s gonna… they’re gonna be helpful in terms of Josh Turek’s efforts.

227

00:38:29.760 --> 00:38:44.520

Laura Belin: I struggle to see Zach Walz as an outsider candidate. I view this primary as more of different groups of insiders having different preferences. I mean, Zach Walz has dozens of endorsements from prominent people in politics, from

228

00:38:44.520 --> 00:38:52.639

Laura Belin: Fred Hubbell to Patty Judge to Dave Loebsack. When he was first running for the State Senate, he had a lot of support from

229

00:38:52.640 --> 00:39:10.819

Laura Belin: parts of the Democratic establishment, so I guess I don’t see that as one of the more credible arguments. But clearly, of the Washington, D.C. insiders in this election, clearly more of them prefer Josh Turek. That’s accurate, but I don’t… on the flip side, I just…

230

00:39:10.820 --> 00:39:14.580

Laura Belin: don’t see Zach Walls as an outsider to Iowa politics.

231

00:39:14.720 --> 00:39:30.780

Dave Price: We’re talking about insiders. I, so let’s, as we close out this week, I’m gonna share a little bit of, inside, maybe the inside scoop on this, on this podcast. I think as we were putting this together, part of our plan was maybe we…

232

00:39:31.000 --> 00:39:39.720

Dave Price: We talk each week and get through the primary campaign. This is gonna sound like… I can’t remember how my son praises this.

233

00:39:40.000 --> 00:39:44.420

Dave Price: When you brag about yourself, what’s that called? The kids call this something.

234

00:39:44.420 --> 00:39:45.500

Laura Belin: Humble brag.

235

00:39:45.500 --> 00:39:46.649

Dave Price: Yeah, humble brag?

236

00:39:46.650 --> 00:39:47.230

Laura Belin: It’s…

237

00:39:47.230 --> 00:39:54.950

Dave Price: Maybe that’s what they… yeah, you’re probably… see, you’re more connected. Humble brag is… that’s probably it.

238

00:39:55.310 --> 00:40:08.280

Dave Price: But this has been super fun, and we’ve seen how this podcast has grown, so we… I think our preference would be… this could be an incredibly fun…

239

00:40:09.570 --> 00:40:19.659

Dave Price: It’s alright, we’re all nerds, we can say fun, right? Like, this stuff is fun. But super interesting, we have so many dynamics to follow for the rest of the year, because this is an election year. Plus.

240

00:40:19.720 --> 00:40:33.800

Dave Price: I just think Iowa politics is fascinating anyway. There’s always so much stuff to talk about. So, I suppose, we’re gonna turn this into a fundraising ask here, I guess, and I hope this is appropriate, but for all of you

241

00:40:34.390 --> 00:40:44.199

Dave Price: who have been watching, reading, or listening to this. Obviously, first of all, thank you very much. This has been such a super fun and humbling process.

242

00:40:44.470 --> 00:40:58.769

Dave Price: To kind of build this out. So it’s fun to be able to have this platform, so we’re super appreciative for that. For those of you who’ve become financial supporters, an additional thank you to all of that, because that allows us to do this.

243

00:40:58.930 --> 00:41:13.830

Dave Price: So, our ask now would be to help us keep this thing going. We very much appreciate all the support in the past. Each one of you, when you make a contribution, no matter what, in what form it is, monthly.

244

00:41:13.960 --> 00:41:27.339

Dave Price: one… one donation, whatever it is. We very much appreciate that. But to keep this going, we have to keep doing this. So if you would please, click on the link that’ll accompany this so that…

245

00:41:27.340 --> 00:41:44.010

Dave Price: we can continue the fundraising efforts to keep this going, because we definitely want to… we may take a brief break, maybe late summer or something like that, as we all enjoy some time off, hopefully. We’ve got a huge trip that I’m really fired up about that my son has put together, too, but…

246

00:41:44.170 --> 00:41:57.439

Dave Price: That’s a whole other… that’s a whole other podcast. But we really want to keep, keep this thing going in the future, and, we’ve got some ideas about ways to do some interactive conversations with you, too. So…

247

00:41:57.440 --> 00:42:04.460

Dave Price: If you would, please, if you would consider becoming a paid subscriber of this, this very much helps us to…

248

00:42:04.530 --> 00:42:07.269

Dave Price: to keep this conversation going. I look forward…

249

00:42:07.270 --> 00:42:08.940

Laura Belin: Making a one-time donation.

250

00:42:08.940 --> 00:42:10.630

Dave Price: For sure. Yeah, thank you.

251

00:42:10.770 --> 00:42:18.729

Dave Price: I very much look forward to next week’s podcast, because we will have so much to talk about. We will…

252

00:42:18.780 --> 00:42:40.090

Dave Price: Obviously, we know in most of these races, we will have winners by that point. We’ll see if we have a declared winner in the Republican primary race for governor. Who would have thought we’d be talking about that? We will see if this poll that we talked about, if it picked up on anything, or if Feenstra, or somebody else, perhaps, clinches this sucker on primary night, so…

253

00:42:40.090 --> 00:42:46.380

Dave Price: Thank you very much to both of you. I know we went a long time today, but we had so much to talk about, so… all good, right?

254

00:42:46.380 --> 00:42:47.050

Laura Belin: That’s fun.

255

00:42:47.050 --> 00:42:55.529

Dave Price: Have a good weekend, both of you. Look forward to talking to you next week, and thanks to all of you for joining us this week. We will talk to you next week.

Get full access to Iowa Down Ballot at iowawriterscollaborative.substack.com/subscribe