Iowa Economy, The Business Outlook Podcast

Ahead of the Business Record’s annual Economic Forecast event, host Chris Conetzkey sits down with the event speakers to ask them for a glimpse at their projections for the year. From persistent uncertainty around trade, inflation and geopolitics to pockets of stability and modest growth, the guests share why 2026 may feel “steady but strained” — and what that means for Iowa businesses planning for the year.

In this episode:

What “steady but strained” conditions mean for business planning and workforce strategy

Outlooks for Iowa’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors after several challenging years

State revenue trends and broader policy factors influencing Iowa’s economic landscape in 2026

Why uncertainty has been a persistent theme in the post-pandemic economy

GUESTS: 

Robin Anderson - state chief economist and division administrator, research & policy division, Iowa Department of Revenue

Amy Friedrich - president of benefits and protection, Principal Financial Group

Ann Collins - executive vice president and CFO, EMC Insurance Cos.

Eric Lohmeier - president, NCP

The latest Principal Financial Well-Being Index shows a widening confidence gap between large and small businesses — and the divide is accelerating. Host Chris Conetzkey sits down with Principal’s Nate Schelhaas to break down why bigger companies remain relatively resilient while small and midsize firms are struggling with rising costs, tariff uncertainty, and limited pricing power. The result: Overall sentiment has dropped to one of its lowest readings in four years, driven largely by the challenges smaller firms can’t easily absorb.

In this episode:

• Why the confidence index fell so dramatically in just a year — with small businesses driving the decline.

• Why large firms can pass on higher costs while small businesses risk damaging relationships if they try.

• The national uncertainties (tariffs, inflation, rates, news cycles) weighing heavily on local confidence.

• How AI adoption is becoming a competitive divider — with big companies accelerating investment.

• What the data suggests about future staffing, wages, and the talent businesses will need to grow.

• Why rising expenses and health care costs are squeezing smaller businesses at a much sharper rate.

Iowa’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors are under stress — but not without opportunity. Host Chris Conetzkey talks with Vermeer CEO Jason Andringa and Iowa Farm Bureau economist Christopher Pudenz about the effects of the ag economy and how shifting markets, tariffs, and technology are reshaping opportunity across the state’s economy.

In this episode:

How low row-crop prices and high input costs are rippling through Iowa’s ag and manufacturing sectors.

Why trade shifts and China’s soybean pullback are straining farm incomes.

Despite tariff pressures Vermeer is growing due to infrastructure, environmental, and data-center-driven growth.

The impact of tariffs and steel price volatility on Iowa manufacturers.

What innovation and trade expansion could mean for turning around the ag economy.

From a federal shutdown to an overheated stock market and volatile trade policies, Iowa’s economy is facing headwinds from nearly every direction. Host Chris Conetzkey sits down with ISU economist Peter Orazem to unpack the state and national factors shaping Iowa’s outlook — and what the long-term risks might be.

In this episode:

How the prolonged federal shutdown is disrupting research, regulation, and ag data.

Why high price-to-earnings ratios could signal an overinflated stock market.

The impact of rising tariffs on Iowa’s manufacturers and farmers.

What Iowa’s tax cuts and revenue shortfalls could mean for future state services.

How an aging workforce and sluggish population growth are constraining recovery.

When the federal government shut down this fall, economists suddenly lost access to key data — just as questions about the economy’s health were heating up. Host Chris Conetzkey sits down with NPR’s Scott Horsley and the University of Iowa’s Anne Villamil to make sense of what we can see — and what uncertainty still clouds the picture.

In this episode:

How the government shutdown is blinding economists to critical data.

Why consumer spending and sentiment tell different stories.

The mixed signals in GDP, inflation, and employment.

How tariffs and trade volatility are hurting Iowa’s manufacturing and agriculture sectors.

What to watch next: policy uncertainty, productivity, and population trends shaping long-term growth.