Shownotes

In his historically long State of the Union speech, President Donald J. Trump spent just three minutes talking about Iran, saying he would never let Iran develop a nuclear weapon but preferred diplomacy to war.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran and the United States are negotiating, but are also both preparing for war. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Naysan Rafati grounds the conversation in the realities on the ground, including Iran’s incentives and capabilities, and the substantial dangers of escalation.

Participants

Naysan Rafati is Iran Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Friday, February 27, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 103