Shownotes

American policy has not kept up with the punishing realities unleashed by the war President Donald Trump started with Iran. 

Iran and the United States announced a truce, even as they’re still fighting to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – and more tellingly, Israel accelerated its attacks on Lebanon the day after the truce supposedly took effect.

A similar disconnect is at play in the negotiations between two powers with opaque decision-making processes and an apparent high tolerance for ambiguity and instability.

Associated Press correspondent Kareem Chehayeb joins Order from Ashes from Lebanon, with a bracing report on the staggering harm to Lebanese society. In the second segment of the podcast, Michael Wahid Hanna from Crisis Group takes stock of the tremendous costs to the world and to the US of Trump’s unjustified war of choice, and what we’ve learned about how the US government is making decisions.

Participants

Kareem Chehayeb is a correspondent with the Associated Press in Lebanon.

Michael Wahid Hanna is the U.S. program director at International Crisis Group.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 108

Shownotes

Iraq’s government has maintained friendly relations simultaneously with Iran and the United States. The war launched by President Donald J. Trump at the end of February upended that equilibrium. 

Now the United States is directly at war with some Iraqi militias, and the Iraqi state is caught in the middle, too weak to control the militias, too dependent to antagonize either Washington or Tehran. 

Century International fellow Sajad Jiyad argues that Iraq will try to revive its precarious middle course once the current phase of the war subsides — but that Iraq’s economy and security will suffer unless it can create a state strong enough to operate independently of Iran and the United States.

Participants

Sajad Jiyad is the Iraq fellow at Century International.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, March 23, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 107

Shownotes

Is there an off ramp to the war of choice that Israel and the United States initiated at the end of February? The violence has spiraled across the region, directly threatening hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East, and straining the entire global economy.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials have publicly floated plans to invade southern Lebanon once more.

On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast we hear from two Century International fellows, Sam Heller in Beirut and Dahlia Scheindlin in Tel Aviv, who provide strategic analysis to contextualize the dizzying cascade of events.

With US support, Israel has embraced an approach that it can only achieve security through total war, with no serious consideration of diplomacy and a political resolution with its neighbors, or with Palestinians in occupied territory. That approach won’t produce enduring security for Israel, but will destabilize the entire Middle East and set the region on course for an unresolved cycle of wars.

Participants

Sam Heller is a Century International fellow in Beirut.

Dahlia Scheindlin is a Century International fellow in Tel Aviv.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, March 16, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 106

Shownotes

Just a week into America’s war of choice on Iran, the costs already are spiraling out of control. The lives lost and broken are the most important cost. But there’s a colossal price tag for waging war, and America’s opening salvo has a number: $5 billion for the first week and a reported $50 billion that the Trump Administration is planning to seek from Congress.

The American defense budget this year is the world’s largest, at $1 trillion. As a point of comparison, it would have cost less than $30 billion to extend health care subsidies to Americans through 2026. 

Analysts have spent decades tallying the costs of America’s forever wars: direct costs in equipment and personal and indirect costs in long term health care. Perhaps the most powerful long-term cost is in opportunities: when the United States pours its resources into warmaking, it starves resources to the spheres that create opportunity and well-being: health care, education, research and development.

William D. Hartung, long-time researcher of the American defense-industrial complex and author of The Trillion-Dollar War Machine joins Order from Ashes this week to survey the staggering costs of the Iran war.

Related reading

Analysis, “The Costs of the War With Iran Will Mount For Decades,” William Hartung, Forbes

Report, “The Trump Administration’s Reckless War in Iran Has Already Cost More Than $5 Billion,” Allison McManus, Center for American Progress

Fact Sheet, “How Much Is the War in Iran Costing American Taxpayers?” Institute for Policy Studies

Roundtable, “War on Iran Was Easy to Start. It Won’t Be Easy to End,” Century International

Open-source tool: The Iran War Cost Ticker

Project: Brown University Costs of War

Participants

William D. Hartung is a senior research fellow at The Quincy Institute. Bill is the co-author, with Ben Freeman, of the recently released The Trillion Dollar War Machine: How Runaway Military Spending Drives America into Foreign Wars and Bankrupts Us at Home.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, March 8, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 105

Shownotes

By the fourth day of its war on choice against Iran, the United States government was offering a shifting and contradictory set of reasons it attacked — to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb, or because Iran had missiles that could reach the US, or to preempt Iran from responding to Israel's preemptive attack.

It was clear from the start that the United States had no critical national security interest at stake, and that the war violates American and international law. It's also a guaranteed disaster for international security and American standing.

Century International fellow Sam Heller joins the Order from Ashes podcast from Beirut to discuss Hezbollah's entry into the conflict, the new dangers created by the war, and the baffling decision-making in Washington.

Related reading

Commentary, “Attacking Iran Is a Guaranteed Disaster,” Century International, by Thanassis Cambanis

Participants

Sam Heller is a fellow at Century International.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Wednesday, March 3. 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 104

Shownotes

In his historically long State of the Union speech, President Donald J. Trump spent just three minutes talking about Iran, saying he would never let Iran develop a nuclear weapon but preferred diplomacy to war.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran and the United States are negotiating, but are also both preparing for war. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Naysan Rafati grounds the conversation in the realities on the ground, including Iran’s incentives and capabilities, and the substantial dangers of escalation.

Participants

Naysan Rafati is Iran Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Friday, February 27, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 103

Shownotes

Almost as soon as the international liberal order came into being after World War II, detractors began announcing its death or irrelevancy. Some disliked its hypocrisy: the United States and its allies preached democracy and human rights for all, but in practice only guaranteed them for some. Others disliked the restraints that the system placed on states that wanted to dominate or invade neighbors.

But while obituaries for the liberal order are nothing new, the last year has felt truly different. Donald Trump has used his second term to embrace a free-for-all of global competition, with no limits on the use of military and financial power, to pursue narrow, short-term interests. Gone is talk of the common good, universalism, and international law. 

Nicholas Danforth joins a raucous discussion on this episode of Order from Ashes, drawing on his recent essay in Foreign Policy. How much order and liberalism was there, really, to the international pact that prevailed from 1945 until, perhaps, 2025? And is that order really, finally, dead this time around? Are there more just and equitable ways to share a global commons?

Related reading

* Argument: Nick Danforth, “Who Killed the Liberal International Order? A Contested Idea Has Seen Many Alleged Deaths,” Foreign Policy, February 9, 2026

* Report: Nick Danforth, “Beyond Bad Borders: How Nationalism, Imperialism, and Power Politics Shaped the Modern Middle East,”  Century International, October 20, 2025

Participants

Nick Danforth is deputy editor of Foreign Policy and a fellow at Century International.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, February 16, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 102

Shownotes

On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Peter Salisbury reports on his recent trip to the Gulf, new developments in the Yemen war, and the spread of drone and missile technology.

The Houthis have matured with astonishing speed from a traditional militia to a group capable of sourcing parts and building long-range drones. They're also capable of teaching other armed groups how to do the same thing.

One consequence: while the United States is walking away from peacemaking, Gulf powers—including Saudi, the United Arab Emirates, and the Houthis—are all increasing their military interventions in African conflicts.

Related reading

* Report, “From Smugglers to Supply Chains: How Yemen’s Houthi Movement Became a Global Threat,” Century International

Participants

Peter Salisbury is a fellow at Century International.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, February 9, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 101

Shownotes

President Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela is just the latest American war initiated with no Congressional authorization. 

According to the Constitution, only Congress can decide to go to war. In practice, however, since 9/11 presidents have enjoyed complete freedom to go to war, or even wage secret and undeclared wars, without authorization from Congress, and with no accountability or oversight.  

On this episode of Order from Ashes, legal expert Brian Finucane explains how Congress could reassert its Constitutional power to decide when America goes to war. 

Finucane charts America’s descent into a norm of illegality in international conflict, how much that abuse of power has cost Americans at home, and how to restore Constitutional checks and balances. 

Participants

Brian Finucane is a senior adviser at International Crisis Group. He previously worked for a decade in the Office of the Legal Adviser at the U.S. Department of State.

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Related reading

* Brian Finucane, “Dissecting the Trump Administration’s Effort to Circumvent the War Powers Resolution for Boat Strikes,” Just Security 

* Brian Finucane, “America Unbound in the Caribbean,” Foreign Affairs

* Report, “Bending the Guardrails: U.S. War Powers after 7 October,” International Crisis Group

Date: Monday, February 2, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 100

Shownotes:

Syria’s new president, former rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has just made another quantum leap in establishing his power over Syria, by persuading the United States to let Sharaa take over the Kurdish statelet in northeast Syria.

Sharaa has presented himself as an inclusive agent of change. On this episode of Order from Ashes, Century International fellow Frederick Deknatel discusses Syria's reconstruction agenda, which worries many Syrians and should concern international policymakers as well.

Syria's reconstruction has an estimated cost of up to $400 billion, some twenty times the size of Syria’s GDP, and so far has mirrored many of the authoritarian practices of the deposed Assasd regime.

Without reforms, reconstruction risks ushering in a new era of clientelism and corruption in Syria, benefiting only Sharaa’s allies and international developers, while the Syrian people continue to be locked out of the decisions that will shape their future. 

*Commentary, “Syria’s Reconstruction Risks Cutting Out the Syrian People,” by Frederick Deknatel

Participants:

* Frederick DeKnatel, non-resident fellow, Century International

* Thanassis Cambanis, director, Century International

Episode: Order from Ashes 99

Date: Jan. 26, 2026