America Turned Authoritarian in 2025. Century’s New Democracy Meter Puts a Number on It.

Shownotes

Just how badly has American democracy eroded during the first year of the second Trump administration? The Century Foundation’s new United States Democracy Meter objectively analyzes that question—and the answer is discomfiting. 

The index, which is the brainchild of veteran human rights researcher Nate Schenkkan and Century International director Thanassis Cambanis, ranks the health of American democracy on a 100-point scale across 23 indicators. The result: in the first year of Trump 2.0, the United States went from being a passing if imperfect democracy to behaving like an authoritarian state. In fact, American democracy is now at greater risk than at any time since Watergate, and it may even be approaching its pre-Civil Rights Movement nadir. 

Century’s chief of policy programs Angela Hanks joins Schenkkan and Cambanis to assess this dangerous moment for American democracy. The core problem is an all-powerful executive branch, made worse by a pliant Congress, a compromised judiciary, and grand corruption. But civil society, higher education, and rights also severely suffered in 2025. Elections remain mostly free—and a possible way out—but there are storm clouds on that horizon, as well.

* Report, “Century’s New Democracy Meter Shows America Took an Authoritarian Turn in 2025,” by Nate Schenkkan and Thanassis Cambanis

Participants

Nate Schenkkan is an independent human rights researcher. From 2012 to 2025 he worked at Freedom House, most recently as senior director of research. While at Freedom House, he ran the annual index Nations in Transit from 2015 to 2018, and wrote the overview essay for Freedom in the World in 2019.

Angela Hanks is chief of policy programs at The Century Foundation. Angela has extensive experience developing and advancing policies and narratives that promote an inclusive and expansive vision for the economy. Angela most recently served as the associate director of external affairs at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), where she led the bureau’s external engagement strategy to ensure its policy agenda was informed by experts, industry stakeholders, and consumers across the country. 

Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. 

Date: Monday, January 19, 2026

Episode: Order from Ashes 98

Shownotes

Order from Ashes returns after a long hiatus. On this episode of the podcast, Zaid Al-Ali and Thanassis Cambanis remember the real lessons of the US invasion and occupation of Iraq—and that history's stark warning for American interventionist fantasies in Venezuela.

Participants

* Zaid Al-Ali, Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs

* Thanassis Cambanis, director, Century International

Zaid Al-Ali is a visiting fellow at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs and a senior adviser at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance. Zaid’s first book, ‘The Struggle Iraq’s Future’ was published by Yale University Press in 2014.  His second book, ‘Arab Constitutionalism: The Coming Revolution’ was published by Cambridge University Press in 2022. You can find him on X at @zalali, BlueSky at @zalali.bsky.social, and on his website, zaidalali.com.

Episode: Order From Ashes 97

Date: Monday, January 12, 2026

During decades of turmoil, war, and regime change in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has played a critical, often overlooked role—steering Iraq away from sectarian conflict, promoting civic democracy over direct theocracy, and quietly seeking to calm regional tensions.

On this episode of Order from Ashes, Century International fellow Sajad Jiyad explains how Sistani has appealed to a majority of the world’s millions of Shia Muslims with his indirect model of clerical authority, a stark contrast to the competing model of direct clerical rule advanced by his compatriots in Iran. 

Jiyad has published a new political biography,  God’s Man in Iraq: The Life and Leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, which offers the first comprehensive account of Sistani’s legacy and draws on original sources and hundreds of interviews during decades of fieldwork inside Iraq. Jiyad 

Observers of Iraq and of Shia power will find God’s Man in Iraq an incomparable appraisal of Sistani’s legacy—and an invaluable guide to the perilous transition that will follow his tenure.

You can learn more and order copies on the book’s homepage.  God’s Man in Iraq is also available in Arabic.

Read: 

• Commentary: "The Man Who Saved Iraq," by Sajad Jiyad (in English and Arabic)

• Book page: God’s Man in Iraq: The Life and Leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, by Sajad Jiyad

Participants:

• Sajad Jiyad, fellow, Century International

The Middle East has faced growing instability, violence, and the risk of a wider war ever since October 7. 

Most attention is understandably focused on Israel, where 1,200 people were killed in a single day, and Gaza, where the death toll is steadily climbing past 11,000, the majority children and women. 

But the wider region is experiencing a level of violence that is cause for alarm: near-daily clashes between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel; steady attacks on the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria; and increasingly bold military initiatives by Yemen’s Houthi rebel forces.

How has the Gaza war changed the wider Middle East? What new dynamics are shaping conflicts and diplomacy among the regional powers and in the region’s many simmering conflicts? How will America’s bear hug of Israel affect other American interests in the Middle East?

Century International fellows Aron Lund, Sam Heller, and Thanassis Cambanis are joined by Michael Wahid Hanna from International Crisis Group to step back from the day-to-day developments of the Gaza war and assess the changing regional context.

Read: 

• Commentary: “It’s Time for a Ceasefire in Gaza—and Then a New Push for Peace,” by Thanassis Cambanis, Dahlia Scheindlin, and Sam Heller

Participants:

• Sam Heller, fellow, Century International

Foreign donors are propping up Lebanon’s public institutions and services with the kind of aid they ordinarily provide to failed states. Will this aid create more problems than it solves for Lebanon’s long-suffering people?

On this episode of Century International’s Order from Ashes podcast, fellow Sam Heller discusses the alarming findings of his report, “Adopt a Ministry: How Foreign Aid Threatens Lebanon’s Institutions.”

As Lebanon’s crisis worsens, foreign donors have stepped in to take over many core functions normally fulfilled by the government. Is this aid, which is vital in the short term, threatening the viability and long-term recovery of Lebanon? 

Donors, aid agencies, Lebanese officials and experts can start by getting honest about the tradeoffs, Sam argues. A first step toward changing the counterproductive aid dynamic requires a full picture of foreign support for Lebanon, so donors and the Lebanese government can coordinate aid to useful ends and not just perpetuate dependency and state breakdown.  

Read: 

• Report: “Adopt a Ministry: How Foreign Aid Threatens Lebanon’s Institutions,” by Sam Heller

Participants:

• Sam Heller, fellow, Century International

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast, Ali Al-Mawlawi traces the long history of anti-Shia prejudice in Iraq. That prejudice, he argues, distorts contemporary debates over whether Shia factions are undermining the state when they compete for power.

This episode of Order From Ashes is the fourth and final episode in “Shia Power,” a series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere. 

In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Cambanis chart the powerful role of religion and the Shia clergy in the creation of a new Iraqi order after Saddam Hussein. In episode 2, Marsin Alshammary draws on her fieldwork in the seminaries of Najaf to argue that clerical authority has not diminished, despite setbacks over the last twenty years. In episode 3, Taif Alkhudary chronicles the revolutionary efforts of the Tishreen protest movement to establish an alternative to religious politics. In episode 4, the final in this series, Ali Al-Mawlawi connects some of today’s sectarian rhetoric to Iraq’s long history of anti-Shia prejudice.

Participants:

• Ali Al-Mawlawi, 

Read:

Report: “Iraqi Shia Factions Are Supposedly ‘Anti-state.’ But State Power Is What They Want,” by Ali Al-Mawlawi

Book: Shia Power Comes of Age

Project: Shia Politics

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast “Shia Power” series, Taif Alkhudary explains how the October 2019 protests formed a popular response to years of thwarted democratization. 

The Tishreen protests movement, Alkhudary argues, represents an indigenous democratization movement that is resisting the putative democracy put in place after the U.S. invasion. Since 2003, Iraqis have endured corruption, dysfunction, and ethno-sectarian tensions, which the political elite justified as the cost of democracy. The Tishreen movement, while still politically immature, has revealed an alternate path. 

This episode of Order From Ashes is the third in a four-part series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere. 

In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Cambanis chart the powerful role of religion and the Shia clergy in the creation of a new Iraqi order after Saddam Hussein. In episode 2, Marsin Alshammary draws on her fieldwork in the seminaries of Najaf to argue that clerical authority has not diminished, despite setbacks over the last twenty years. In episode 3, Taif Alkhudary chronicles the revolutionary efforts of the Tishreen protest movement to establish an alternative to religious politics. In episode 4, the final in this series, Ali Al-Mawlawi connects some of today’s sectarian rhetoric to Iraq’s long history of anti-Shia prejudice.

Participants:

• Taif Alkhudary, research officer, LSE Middle East Center, and PhD candidate, Cambridge

Read:

• Report: “Young Revolutionary Parties Are Still Iraq’s Best Hope for Democracy,” by Taif Alkhudary

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast, Marsin Alshamary explains why, despite some setbacks, Shia clerics in Iraq still wield a great deal of authority. 

Protest movements have rejected religion in politics, while corrupt politicians have sullied the reputations of religious factions. But clerics and their institutions remain powerful players in Iraqi society even as their roles change.

This episode of Order From Ashes is the second in “Shia Power,” a four-part series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere. 

In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Cambanis chart the powerful role of religion and the Shia clergy in the creation of a new Iraqi order after Saddam Hussein. In episode 2, Marsin Alshammary draws on her fieldwork in the seminaries of Najaf to argue that clerical authority has not diminished, despite setbacks over the last twenty years. In episode 3, Taif Alkhudary chronicles the revolutionary efforts of the Tishreen protest movement to establish an alternative to religious politics. In episode 4, the final in this series, Ali Al-Mawlawi connects some of today’s sectarian rhetoric to Iraq’s long history of anti-Shia prejudice.

Read:

Report: “Shia Clerics in Iraq Haven’t Lost Their Authority,” by Marsin Alshamary

Book: Shia Power Comes of Age

Project: Shia Politics

Participants:

• Marsin Alshamary, assistant professor of political science, Boston College

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast, Sajad Jiyad plumbs the complex evolution of Shia Islamism during two decades at the center of Iraqi power.

This episode of Order From Ashes is the first in “Shia Power,” a four-part series about the transformation of Shia politics in Iraq, and what Iraq’s experience teaches us about the role of religion in politics everywhere. 

A new edited volume from Century International, Shia Power Comes of Age: The Transformation of Islamist Politics in Iraq, 2003–2023, maps the radical transformation of Shia Islamist politics in Iraq over the last two decades. Contributors include Taif AlKhudary, Ali Al-Mawlawi, Marsin Alshamary, Thanassis Cambanis, Maria Fantappie, Fanar Haddad, Sajad Jiyad, Renad Mansour, and Ben Robin-D’Cruz.

Sajad and Thanassi, directors of Century International’s Shia Politics project, reflect on the lessons of Iraq’s Shia Islamists for politicians, policymakers, and researchers.

In episode 1 of “Shia Power,” Sajad Jiyad and host Thanassis Cambanis chart the powerful role of religion and the Shia clergy in the creation of a new Iraqi order after Saddam Hussein. In episode 2, Marsin Alshammary draws on her fieldwork in the seminaries of Najaf to argue that clerical authority has not diminished, despite setbacks over the last twenty years. In episode 3, Taif Alkhudary chronicles the revolutionary efforts of the Tishreen protest movement to establish an alternative to religious politics. In episode 4, the final in this series, Ali Al-Mawlawi connects some of today’s sectarian rhetoric to Iraq’s long history of anti-Shia prejudice.

Read:

Book: Shia Power Comes of Age

Project: Shia Politics

Participants:

• Sajad Jiyad, fellow, Century International

In a miserable twist for the people who live there, Iraq has become a front-line test lab for the extreme effects of climate change. A combination of forces, accelerated by bad human decisions, has dramatically degraded Iraq’s environment. And Iraq’s experience is a harbinger of what’s coming to the rest of the world. 

On this episode of the Order From Ashes podcast, Century International fellow Zeinab Shuker explores the unhappy mix of factors that has made Iraq so inhospitable.

Zeinab is leading “Living the Climate Emergency: Lessons from Iraq,” a new Century International project exploring how policymakers and researchers can draw on the case of Iraq and its neighbors to translate into action the growing consensus that the climate crisis is already here. 

Century’s Climate Emergency Project will connect field researchers, policymakers, and a wider audience through roundtables, public events, podcasts, and reports. Future research in this project will place today’s crisis in a historical context; map the contours and human impact of climate change in Iraq and its neighborhood; and finally, drawing on the lessons of the extreme case in Iraq, make projections about the future and propose solutions. 

Read: 

• “The Deep Roots of Iraq’s Climate Crisis,” Century International report by , Zeinab Shuker

Explore:

Project homepage, “Living the Climate Emergency: Lessons from Iraq”

Participants:

• Zeinab Shuker, fellow, Century International