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Trump’s “very big force” threat ramps up as a second US carrier heads for the region, with Iran refusing to play ball at all... Right, so Donald Trump is sending a second aircraft carrier towards Iran while talks are still on, and he’s not even pretending what it’s for. He’s saying the quiet part in plain English: if there’s no deal, he “needs” the force, and if there is a deal, he can “cut it short”. So this isn’t diplomacy with a backstop, it’s a negotiation being conducted with a threat sitting on the table, and everyone’s meant to call that “peace”. Here’s what matters. Iran doesn’t respond to being leaned on like this, because the whole point of its posture is to make intimidation expensive. Meanwhile Trump is widening the demand list, Netanyahu is pushing for maximal terms, and the US Navy is stretching deployments like that has no cost. So in this one, I’m going to lay out what this actually locks in, who it traps, and why moving more hardware doesn’t buy control - it buys risk. Right, so Donald Trump has ordered a second US aircraft carrier towards the Middle East while indirect talks with Iran are still happening, and he has linked the deployment to whether Iran signs up to what he wants. Donald Trump has said the United States is prepared to deploy “a very big force” if the negotiations fail. Donald Trump has been asked why he is sending another carrier and he has answered that “in case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it”, and that “if we have a deal, we could cut it short”. Donald Trump has said the second carrier will be leaving “very soon”. Donald Trump has added that if the talks are not successful it will be “a bad day for Iran — very bad”. That is the posture. That is the language. That is the environment the talks now sit inside. Trump’s moving the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group out of the Caribbean and sending it to link up with the USS Abraham Lincoln group already out there. And let’s not kid ourselves what that actually is. That isn’t “presence”. That’s a floating airbase with escorts and supply ships, built for one job: launching strikes and surviving long enough to keep doing it. So when Trump says he’ll “need it” if there’s no deal, he’s not talking about reassurance. He’s saying the threat is part of the bargaining.
By Damien WilleyTrump’s “very big force” threat ramps up as a second US carrier heads for the region, with Iran refusing to play ball at all... Right, so Donald Trump is sending a second aircraft carrier towards Iran while talks are still on, and he’s not even pretending what it’s for. He’s saying the quiet part in plain English: if there’s no deal, he “needs” the force, and if there is a deal, he can “cut it short”. So this isn’t diplomacy with a backstop, it’s a negotiation being conducted with a threat sitting on the table, and everyone’s meant to call that “peace”. Here’s what matters. Iran doesn’t respond to being leaned on like this, because the whole point of its posture is to make intimidation expensive. Meanwhile Trump is widening the demand list, Netanyahu is pushing for maximal terms, and the US Navy is stretching deployments like that has no cost. So in this one, I’m going to lay out what this actually locks in, who it traps, and why moving more hardware doesn’t buy control - it buys risk. Right, so Donald Trump has ordered a second US aircraft carrier towards the Middle East while indirect talks with Iran are still happening, and he has linked the deployment to whether Iran signs up to what he wants. Donald Trump has said the United States is prepared to deploy “a very big force” if the negotiations fail. Donald Trump has been asked why he is sending another carrier and he has answered that “in case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it”, and that “if we have a deal, we could cut it short”. Donald Trump has said the second carrier will be leaving “very soon”. Donald Trump has added that if the talks are not successful it will be “a bad day for Iran — very bad”. That is the posture. That is the language. That is the environment the talks now sit inside. Trump’s moving the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group out of the Caribbean and sending it to link up with the USS Abraham Lincoln group already out there. And let’s not kid ourselves what that actually is. That isn’t “presence”. That’s a floating airbase with escorts and supply ships, built for one job: launching strikes and surviving long enough to keep doing it. So when Trump says he’ll “need it” if there’s no deal, he’s not talking about reassurance. He’s saying the threat is part of the bargaining.