The late October leak of the West approaching Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war gave some hope that peace talks could start.  The next two weeks did see progress in each side making some proposals of what a peace could look like, and though no breakthroughs came, NATO and the Russians did not shut the door on peace talks.  The Ukrainians were the only party to say no to peace talks until the Russian left Ukraine territory, including the land taken in 2014.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seemed to fully back the Ukrainian demands.  This week both the Germans and Russians made statements that seemed to dim the prospect of peace. 

     The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) published a report that stated that Russia is the greatest threat to the West.  As a result, NATO needs to pursue a rapid military buildup with the goal of being able to wage a war with Russia in the next five to nine years.  They stated that once the fighting ends in Ukraine, the badly mauled Russian army will need about six to ten years to re-constitute itself and to continue its open-ended war in the Ukraine and beyond.  NATO needs to be ahead of the Russians by one year to give it time to reposition its forces further east to meet the Russian threat.

     The DGAP statements are interesting in that it seems to indicate that the Ukrainians will lose the war and NATO needs to prepare for the next war that is to come.  Though they do not directly state it, it is implied because the entire premise that NATO needs to build up before Russia recovers assumes no lasting peace or Ukraine’s long term security requirements will be addressed.  It also does not state that Ukraine is defeated but the war turns into a low intensity conflict probably like what was occurring in the Donbas between 2014 and 2022. 

     This week the Russian Ambassador-At-Large Rodion Miroshnik stated that peace talks were not imminent.  Miroshnik told reporters that peace will not occur with the current Ukrainian regime in place and coexistence with Moscow was not possible.  He stated that Russia can continue the “Special Military Operation” indefinitely until Ukraine is defeated and demilitarized and this is achievable because NATO will lose interest in supporting Ukraine indefinitely.  Miroshnik’s statements is that Russia war goals are regime change and the demilitarization of Ukraine, though he did leave the option open that if regime change occurs, there could be an opening for peace.  The Russian position mirrors Ukraine’s position in that Zelensky will talk peace with the Russians but not with Putin.  The Russians stated they will not negotiate with Zelensky. 

     These cannot be called steps in the right direction for peace, though even most proponents for peace talks admit that they most likely will not start until 2024 and after the expected Russian winter offensive.  The DGAP for their part, do not hold any official position in Germany, NATO or the EU, so what they are proposing is not a policy position.  This is not to say that their assumptions are wrong, because without a negotiated peace, the Ukrainians will not be able to win in the long run without direct NATO involvement.  NATO has stated that they would not involve its troops in Ukraine at this time, so DGAP argument makes sense.  NATO will not get directly involved in the current conflict, some form of Ukrainian defeat will occur, and an emboldened Russia will rebuild and continue its aggressive policy.  NATO will have to be ready to meet the Russians and show the resolve to fight them when that occurs. 

     DGAP and Miroshnik are in the same conclusion in that the Ukraine position has already passed the tipping point and cannot win.  The Russians are indicating they have the stronger position to dictate terms on the Ukrainians or continue the war and slowly crush Ukraine.  DGAP concedes this point, and that NATO needs to look beyond the current war and be ready to actually fight the next war with Russia.  If peace is going to be sought, it needs to be pressed and pressed soon.

References:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nato-in-race-against-time-to-prepare-for-russia-war-report/ar-AA1kdRqA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=3340301a27254989a703fd7472cb787a&ei=16

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/russia-ukraine-war-coexistence-not-possible-3936571

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