Tim Montgomerie is joined by Jenni Russell, Matthew Parris and Hugo Rifkind. Jenni Russell:Is the icecap starting to break? For months the polls have been locked, with Labour and the Tories stuck on a third of the vote, and Labour remaining just slightly ahead. Labour has been hoping that the electorate will reject austerity; the Tories have been anxiously awaiting a reward for seeing the economy turning at last. Ashcroft's latest poll puts the Tories four points ahead; more importantly the Tories have led more of the last twenty polls than Labour have. Matthew Parris:Okay, I'll say it: I think there's a chance the Tories are just going to win outright. We are in the media have a habit of fighting the last battle and because the last election led to a coalition this has conditioned thinking about the next one. But Labour support may begin to ebb away: not least because the party has no stomach for this fight and people know it. Hugo Rifkind:Parts of England are developing a profound...

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