Two weeks ago Abdul El-Sayed was trading at 93 cents to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. He's now at 63. Jacob and Garth break down what changed: McMorrow's exit turned it into a clean head-to-head, a fresh Tavern Research poll has Stevens up a point (a statistical tie), and the outside money keeps pouring in. Is the progressive wave that swept New York and Colorado finally hitting resistance, or do the August 4 demographics still favor El-Sayed? Plus the trade the guys made from 6 cents and why they're saying take the profit now.

Then: the Iran escalation is pushing gas toward $4 a gallon, and why that makes the House market (Democrats at 77 cents) Jacob's biggest buy of the day. Florida's wide-open governor primary and the AI-generated Fishback ad. Schumer stepping back from the Maine replacement fight. And a tangent on why the deepest political benches always seem to belong to the teams that keep losing.

Market reads inside: Michigan, the House, and Senate control.

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Michigan #Senate2026 #PredictionMarkets