The PredictIt Podcast

After 40 weeks, this is the final PredictIt Podcast.

Jacob and Garth close it out with the biggest upset of the primary season. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who joined the DSA during her campaign, beat Alex Vindman 56-44 in Florida's Democratic Senate primary after being outspent more than 16 to 1. She raised under $1 million against his $16.3 million, and she is now the first DSA member ever to win a major-party nomination for statewide office. She faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November.

In Alaska, Mary Peltola led the all-party primary with roughly 48 percent to Dan Sullivan's 43, sending both to a ranked-choice general election that could decide control of the Senate. Which makes the fight over ranked choice voting, and the money now flowing into it, a lot less abstract than it sounds.

And then the story that should worry everyone who reads a poll. Median Strategies, the firm behind surveys showing Karen Bass up 12 in Los Angeles and Francesca Hong up 20 in Wisconsin, admitted the numbers were fabricated, withdrew every release, and closed. The Times and FiftyPlusOne had both declined to publish the Wisconsin poll because it lacked basic methodology disclosure. Everyone else ran it.

Then the guys look back: 40 weeks of markets, favorite guests, the calls that landed, the calls that did not, and what the last year taught them about the gap between what the polls say and where the money actually goes.

Thanks to everyone who listened, traded along, and argued with us in the comments.

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Trade on bit.ly/predictit2026

Francesca Hong led the polls by double digits and lost the Wisconsin governor primary by about 3,000 votes. David Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive who had actually dropped out of the race a month earlier, re-entered with Tony Evers behind him and took it in a race called at 2:20am.

But the story Jacob and Garth keep circling is who didn't show up. No endorsement from Bernie Sanders. None from AOC. None from Tammy Baldwin or Mark Pocan. The same coalition that turned out for El-Sayed in Michigan left Hong on her own, and the guys make the case that was a calculation, not an accident. Which is why the biggest 2028 winner on Tuesday night may have been someone who wasn't on the ballot at all.

Also in this one: why AOC's pivot toward the middle makes her run-for-president contract the best value on the board at 63 cents, what a month of terrible primary polling does and does not tell you about the general election, John Larson losing his seat after 14 terms to a 47-year-old former Hartford mayor, Mike Lindell losing both his CEO job and his primary in the same week, and the real math behind Trump's endorsement record once you strip out the uncompetitive races.

Chapters:

00:00 A 2:20am call in a race decided by 3,000 votes

03:01 The endorsements that never came

04:18 Why this is a big result for AOC

07:17 The 2028 board: AOC at 63 cents

11:14 What primary polling got wrong (and what it didn't)

16:00 Connecticut: Larson loses after 14 terms

18:41 House flux: 30 retirements, 30 running elsewhere

20:35 Lindell, and Trump's endorsement record in context

23:49 Where Trump goes with a Democratic Congress

26:55 The August 25 South Carolina runoff

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary — but almost nobody expected it to be this close. Traders had him at 98 cents for most of election night, and anyone holding Haley Stevens at a penny or two watched her spike to 20 cents when the Wayne County numbers finally landed at 4am. Jacob and Garth break down what that near-miss teaches about certainty, why the cheap contracts are where the real money lives, and how a 1-cent position can outperform anything you buy at 50.

The other story: six outside groups spent $62 million trying to stop him — roughly a nine-to-one advantage, including the largest sum AIPAC's super PAC has put into any federal Democratic primary this cycle. It didn't work. Stevens has since conceded and endorsed him, and the general election market barely moved all night.

Then the rest of a genuinely mixed night: Wesley Bell routs Cori Bush 59-37 in their Missouri rematch, progressive William Lawrence takes Michigan's 7th, Cindy Holscher wins the Kansas governor primary over an establishment pick — and why "big tent" might actually be an accurate description of this party for the first time in years. Plus Trump's net approval hits an all-time low, a brutal run of Senate polling for Republicans, and Francesca Hong slipping from 95 to 83 cents in Wisconsin.

Chapters:

00:00 The 98-cent lock that almost broke

03:08 A lesson on certainty (and why cheap contracts matter)

05:32 $62 million and a nine-to-one spending gap

06:37 Why the general election market didn't move

10:36 Missouri: Bell vs. Bush, round two

12:31 The mixed-bag night and the "big tent" case

16:15 Last week's polling: Trump's all-time low

25:11 Wisconsin: Hong's correction from 95 to 83

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

The DSA co-chair went on Fox News Sunday and confirmed the whole platform in a lightning round — abolish the Senate, ICE, prisons, the borders. Jacob and Garth break down why Republicans couldn't have scripted it better, and why the socialist wave's biggest threat might be its own momentum: El-Sayed is cruising toward Tuesday's Michigan primary at 80 cents, but the same polling shows him down 10 to Mike Rogers in a hypothetical general while Haley Stevens runs even.

Then Texas, the real tipping point: Talarico has now led Paxton in three straight polls, Paxton can't raise money, and the guys explain why the Texas Senate contract and Senate control are basically the same trade (buy the cheaper one). Plus Wisconsin's Francesca Hong up 29 in the governor's primary, a brutal round of favorability polling for the GOP, and the government shutdown that's shaping up to land a month before the midterms.

Market reads inside: Michigan (El-Sayed 80¢ / Stevens 22¢), Texas (Talarico 42¢ / Paxton 59¢), and Senate control.

Chapters:

00:00 GOP revolt over summer recess + the SAVE Act stalls

02:04 Polling roundup: Dems +8 generic, GOP favorability sinks

04:33 The DSA Fox News interview heard 'round the party

05:13 Michigan: El-Sayed's polling wall + the market reacts live

09:12 Texas: Talarico's streak and the tipping-point trade

15:33 The electability question: El-Sayed vs. Rogers head-to-heads

21:58 The Stevens video + the Detroit turnout question

25:19 Michigan primary is Tuesday — what we're watching

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#DSA #Michigan #PredictionMarkets

An AI-generated attack ad against James Fishback aired during the World Cup final and it's so absurd we watched it three times! Jacob and Garth break down why AI ads are about to be everywhere in 2028, who's actually behind this one, and whether the "$10 million ad buy" claim passes the smell test. (Actual ad here: https://x.com/TeamFishback/status/2078957886403670411/video/1)

Then the real news: Lindsey Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, has been sworn in to finish his term — but the August 11 special primary is where it gets interesting. Traders have her at 67 cents against Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, and the guys debate whether a Trump endorsement plus the family name makes her inevitable or whether this primary blows up.

Plus: Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins 49-46 in the first Maine poll since Platner's exit (don't run away with it), AOC won't rule out 2028 and Jacob calls her 55-cent "runs for president" contract the bargain of the week, and the fundraising numbers that should terrify Republicans: Talarico's $54.5M to Paxton's $3.9M in Texas, Ossoff sitting on a mountain in Georgia.

Chapters:

00:00 The AI attack ad (watch #1)

06:50 Arizona primary results

07:40 Graham's seat: Darline, Fry, Norman and the Aug 11 primary

17:12 Maine: Troy Jackson's first poll vs. Collins

20:35 AOC and the 2028 market

22:30 Fundraising blowouts: Texas, Georgia, Alaska

25:40 The ad, one more time (watch #3)

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#AIAds #LindseyGraham #PredictionMarkets

Two weeks ago Abdul El-Sayed was trading at 93 cents to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. He's now at 63. Jacob and Garth break down what changed: McMorrow's exit turned it into a clean head-to-head, a fresh Tavern Research poll has Stevens up a point (a statistical tie), and the outside money keeps pouring in. Is the progressive wave that swept New York and Colorado finally hitting resistance, or do the August 4 demographics still favor El-Sayed? Plus the trade the guys made from 6 cents and why they're saying take the profit now.

Then: the Iran escalation is pushing gas toward $4 a gallon, and why that makes the House market (Democrats at 77 cents) Jacob's biggest buy of the day. Florida's wide-open governor primary and the AI-generated Fishback ad. Schumer stepping back from the Maine replacement fight. And a tangent on why the deepest political benches always seem to belong to the teams that keep losing.

Market reads inside: Michigan, the House, and Senate control.

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Michigan #Senate2026 #PredictionMarkets

The Senate map just got scrambled in a single week. Graham Platner's Maine campaign implodes after a sexual assault allegation, and nearly every Democrat who backed him is now calling for him to step aside before the July 13 deadline. Jacob and Garth break down who replaces him (Troy Jackson? Janet Mills?) and whether Susan Collins is now the safest incumbent on the board.

Then: Michigan tightens dramatically after McMorrow drops out, with a fresh poll showing El-Sayed and Stevens nearly tied heading into the August 4 primary. Plus the Mitch McConnell health mystery and what a Kentucky opening could mean for control of the chamber, Ken Paxton spending July 4th in London, and why the World Cup turned into a political headache for Trump.

All the market reads inside: where PredictIt traders have Maine, Michigan, and Senate control right now.

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Senate2026 #Platner #PredictionMarkets

It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money.

Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll, with real signs of Paxton weakness under the surface. Maine tells a different story — Collins holds a steady edge while Platner's campaign gets buried under a staggering outside-money gap ($4.3M vs $440K in a five-day span). Michigan's Democratic primary is effectively over, with El-Sayed running away and traders having already called it. Plus, a Florida poll that traders think is flat-out fake, the generic ballot tightening toward Republicans, and why Jacob likes buying Republican on the Senate control market right now.

Then: Garth's case that the smartest Democratic play heading into August is to get out of the way and let Trump be Trump.

Chapters:

00:00 Colorado results and the anti-incumbent wave

06:30 SCOTUS: Alito retirement watch + FECA caps overturned

15:40 Texas Senate: Paxton vs. Talarico (dead heat)

22:45 Maine: Collins vs. Platner and the money bomb

30:20 Michigan: El-Sayed, Stevens, McMorrow

35:00 Generic ballot + the Senate control market read

Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart.

Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

#Senate2026 #Polling #PredictionMarkets

Mamdani went 3-for-3 last night — sweeping all three New York City congressional primaries and ousting two incumbents, including Hakeem Jeffries-backed Adriano Espaillat in NY-13. Brad Lander flattened Dan Goldman in NY-10. Claire Valdez dominated Antonio Reynoso in NY-7. The left now has a kingmaker. But the real result nobody is covering: Cait Conley in NY-17 — the West Point grad, former NSC counterterrorism director, and MIT/Harvard alum who just became the Democrats' best shot at flipping a swing seat in November.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — Mamdani sweeps NYC: Brad Lander, Claire Valdez, and Darializa Avila Chevalier all win

08:00 — NY-17: Cait Conley wins — Democrats at 87¢ to flip Mike Lawler's seat

12:00 — NY-12: Micah Lasher beats Alex Bores, Schlossberg hits 11%, Conway at 6%

16:00 — The Iran deal is in the garbage — and we called Israel as the wildcard last week

20:00 — War powers resolution passes the Senate: three months too late, but fine

23:00 — Housing bill passes bipartisan — Byron Donalds' "no" vote and what it signals for his Florida governor race

26:00 — MTG and Tucker Carlson leave the GOP: welcome to the political wilderness

28:00 — Trump approval at 40% — does America 250 paper over the cracks?

32:00 — The Reflecting Pool disaster: algae, a $14M contractor, and government waste

36:00 — July calendar: jobs report, CPI, Fed rate decision, and the World Cup wild card

Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics.

Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial

X: https://x.com/PredictItPod

#PredictionMarkets #Mamdani #NewYorkPrimary2026

For the first time since Venezuela, Republicans have real momentum — and it came from three places at once: an Iran deal signed in Geneva, gas prices falling week over week, and UFC 250 entering through the Oval Office. Democrats are still at 71¢ to take the House, but the environment is tightening.

In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover:

00:00 — Knicks win, Trump's off the hook? The White House visit debate

04:30 — Herschel Walker, Bahamas safety alerts, and jet ski diplomacy

07:00 — Georgia runoff results: Ossoff cruises to 88¢, governor race hits 52-49

10:00 — UFC at the White House: effective propaganda or birthday party?

13:00 — Iran deal: what we know, what Bloomberg leaked, and why it's still a win regardless

17:00 — Gas prices down three weeks straight — Trump claims victory he may have earned

19:00 — Trump's approval bounces, generic ballot narrows: what prediction markets say

21:00 — NY-12: Lasher 63¢, Boris 34¢, the establishment machine takes over

25:00 — Brad Lander at 97¢, NY-7 Valdez vs. Reynoso — Jacob likes Reynoso at 49¢

Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026

PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics.

Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial

X: https://x.com/PredictItPod

#PredictionMarkets #IranDeal #2026Midterms