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In this week's What We're Watching, our analysts examine three stories that reveal the growing strains in the international system.

First, reports suggest the Pentagon has raised concerns about Israeli espionage efforts directed at American negotiators involved in talks with Iran. While allies routinely gather intelligence on one another, some U.S. officials believe recent Israeli activities have crossed a line, highlighting growing tensions within one of Washington's most important strategic relationships.

Next, we look at the war in Ukraine, which has now lasted longer than the First World War. More than four years after Russia's invasion, the conflict remains locked in a costly stalemate. We assess how Russia adapted its economy and military, Ukraine's dependence on Western support, and what the war's longevity tells us about the future of the conflict.

Finally, we turn to Pakistan-administered Kashmir, where deadly protests have erupted following a government crackdown, internet shutdowns, mass arrests and a dispute over reserved legislative seats. We explore the political status of the territory, the roots of the unrest, and why the protests could have wider implications for the region.

Join us as we break down the geopolitics behind the headlines.

⏱ Chapters

0:00 Intro

If you like this podcast and want to learn more about the issues raised, please check out website http://www.thegeopolity.com

Mufti Moinul Abu Hamza, teacher & founder of The Qur'an Institute, joins us to discuss the untapped potential of traditional Islamic learning institutions to affect change in society.

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/live/0GepLGiF_uQ?is=WZQf3xOBzaYzuV2V

The Islamic year begins with Hijrah, but do we understand why the Sahabah chose it as the starting point?

This was not just a migration, nor a spiritual memory to revisit once a year.

It marked a shift from weakness to authority, from scattered suffering to a mission of justice for mankind.

In an age of massacres, silence, and political paralysis, this talk confronts the Ummah with the meaning of responsibility of all Muslims before it is too late.

Hijrah-Celebrating What We Abandoned

What does Hijrah really mean — a date to celebrate, or a warning we forgot?

This talk challenges the comfort of empty remembrance and forces the Ummah to confront the power, dignity, and responsibility buried inside that historic turning point.

How do we take up the responsibility?

Israel’s Plan to Control the Water

A rift is emerging between the US and Europe over competing visions of the future direction of AI. The future of global AI standards depends on whether Europe and the US can achieve pragmatic alignment or if the digital landscape will succumb to jurisdictional fragmentation.

Source: https://thegeopolity.com/2026/06/11/the-battle-for-the-future-of-ai/

They Wanted Southern Lebanon Since 1897

Source: https://youtube.com/@politicalalchemy?si=zpZ6bSYzMoEQLlCx

Iran fired on Israel for the first time since April. America told both sides to stop. Israel ignored them. And Iran is walking away from this looking stronger than when it started.

In this podcast I break down the real objectives of each side, why America is desperate for an off-ramp it can’t reach, and why Iran is no longer just fighting to survive.

Sources:

Operation Project Freedom (Strait of Hormuz)

Pentagon assessment: Hormuz could stay closed 6+ months (Washington Post)

Foreign Policy: Lebanon inching toward civil war with Hezbollah

World Bank: Gulf GDP downgrade from 4.4% to 1.3%

UAE absorbed 2,800+ Iranian missiles and drones

80 Gulf energy facilities targeted

Iran FM Araghchi: “Had Lebanon been a bargaining chip, we’d have a deal long ago”

Business Standard: Tehran makes Lebanon ceasefire a condition for any deal with Washington

Trump confirmed calling Netanyahu “f***ing crazy” (Axios/Times of Israel)

Pentagon raised Israel spy threat to “critical” (NBC/NYT)

Source: https://youtu.be/w1S8ZDEKdzI?si=_bG92nP_lb1zzQ8c

Genius Strategy – U.S. Dollar Dominance

We worry about leaving behind money, houses, and inheritance, but what if what we leave behind becomes a burden against us?

This address confronts the reality of death, fatherhood, legacy, and allegiance to Allah. It asks a question every Muslim must face before the grave asks it first:

Is Islam merely an identity, or is it complete submission to the Rabb who legislates and commands?

A reminder that comfort, delay, and excuses cannot protect us when death arrives.