Israel went looking for a Red Sea foothold in Somaliland and handed Somalia a sovereignty grievance, Yemen a target warning and Iran all new leverage. Right, so Benjamin Netanyahu’s Red Sea problem has just got nastier, because Israel has recognised Somaliland, breakaway state of Somalia that only Israel recognises and as a result of that Somalia has chosen now, with all the Strait of Hormuz access problems Israel is faced with, to put access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the table, and Iran has been handed another leverage advantage it didn’t even need to build for itself. But like Iran, Somalia has not suddenly become a naval superpower, it’s another case of geography giving them a big advantage. Mogadishu has not parked a fleet across one of the world’s most important sea lanes and frankly if anyone would do that, we’d have expected more of a military response from the likes of Ansarallah, the Houthis, but they aren’t alone in flexing here, its not just them with that advantage, because Somalia, sitting on the Horn of Africa as it does, can cause problems for shipping long before they ever reach Bab-El Mandeb if coming from Asia, and making shipping potentially think twice if coming from the direction of the Suez Canal. So this is very much a self inflicted hen coming home to roost for Israel, because something they cooked up a while ago is suddenly punching them in the face right when they are logistically kiboshed elsewhere.