We’ve tried to leverage some new technology to generate transcripts. These notes will not be perfect, but hopefully, they will supplement the discussion.
We will have several of these and plan to cover a number of different wagers across the two days.
MPNahu Mikey P, Mike Pribozie in for another Plus show. And we're doing some wagering strategy podcast here on the Plus side, talking to the the upper-end handicappers here for Breeders' Cup 2024. And it's a complete honor to get Clay Sanders in, obviously one of the founding partners of 10-Strike Racing. And 10-Strike Racing, obviously you hear Pete say all the time, was one of the founding partners of In the Money Media. So Clay, welcome to Plus.ClayI'm glad to be here, Mike. Happy to talk about the Breeders' Cup. It's my favorite time of the year.MPAbsolutely mine too and really it's this is like Christmas of every year I mean when we get to Breers Cup It seems like all everything leads up to it and then you have these two days and when it's over It's a it's a letdown for meClayAbsolutely.ClayOh, a hundred percent. I mean, I've already tried to figure out, I'm going to be driving back from Nashville on Sunday. I'm going to be playing the BCBC with a couple of people, you know, uh, from the pods and on my drive back, I'm trying to figure out what I'm going to be listening to because for the last two, or three weeks, it's all horse racing. And you know, the time after the breeders kept, there's this big lull, uh, you know, until the Derby trail kind of starts. And I don't think about handicapping for about a month. So, uh, it's, it's definitely, uh, we'll be some melancholy on Sunday.MPWell, it's final exam time here. And I asked you off air earlier today, I said, you know, I want to focus on pick fives and we're going to do pick five strategy. And I said, you know, what sequence would you want to look at here as far as for the pot? And you said that you liked the sequence for Saturday, starting in race number four, that finishes up in the classic. And I was I was curious to pick your brain because that sequence certainly has a couple of races that are going to have some big favorites. What led to you wanting to maybe focus on that sequence?ClayWell, several things. One is I think the classic is just an incredible puzzle to try to put together. And it's always my favorite race of the year. But the reason why, ultimately, I landed here is I think people, the great thing about horse racing is, or, you know, handicapping and horse racing is game selection. And when you're playing poker, you got to, and you got to play in every hand.But in horse racing, we have this massive menu. I mean, Breeders Kept Weekend. I mean, how many pick fives are there? I mean, there's a million of them pick fours. So it's you don't have to play them all. So I always tell people it's in a pick five, you have two options. You either have a single that you love in the first leg or you hate the top four or five horses in the race and you're going to play some long shots. If not, then why are you playing that pick five? Go to the pick four. Don't dilute your opinion by spreading four and five wide in the first leg. I mean, I hate when I see my friends or you know ah players and they've gone four deep and they're using the first four choices in a pick in a pick five. That is you're erasing any value. It's a negative EV and it's just bad game selection. So the reason why I selected this pick five is I think Ways and Means is a real standout in this race. So I want to say she's going to be the favorite. I don't care. I'm going to single her. Let some people go two and three wide, you know, dilute themselves. But I'm just going to just strike here with her. I think she's the best horse. She's an improving three year old and I think she's a standout. So I'm going to just single here and go on. And if I get deep, I'll go on to a different sequence.MPNow, you like the first leg, and you know I do agree with you, first leg, so like like with when it comes to pick fives especially, or any really multi-leg sequence, it seems when that when I first leg ah lends itself to a price, that that pick four, pick five always pays a lot more because people really, I think, focus on the favorites in those first initial legs, and a lot of money always flows through those those early favorites, so and butClayYep.MPAnd this In this case, if you like one and you continue to have that equity in that first, you know, by slimming down, like you said, by not using a bunch of horses, then that could be powerful as well.ClayIt is. So I think you're going to have to beat some favorites in in a sequence. And especially this one, you mentioned that there's ah three big favorites. Obviously, you want to play against ah at minimum one of Ways and Means. In the next leg, you have Cogburn and then you have torpedo Anna. What I'm going to do is I'm not going to use Cogburn in the next leg. That's where I'm going to make my stand and create my value is I think he's really talented horse and I think he's the most likely to win that race. But I think there are several horses in there that can beat him. It's a wide open. And if I can beat him, I've created a ton of equity. I think he's going to be even money. And I think there's many More than one way he can get beat in this race And I'm just gonna make him show it and if I can beat him and I get through this leg I think I've built up a quite a bit of equity um And you know, there's a big favor the next but I think the classic and the turf are wide open and I can Really turn this into a pretty solid pair if I can beat CogburnMPAbsolutely. I do think that Cogburn is probably going to be one of the, well, him and Torpedo Anna, both in this sequence will be probably the two biggest favorites of the weekend. So beating one of those two make the the the payout big.Beating both of those two could turn it to a nuclear type payout. And the fact that you like a horse in the first leg, now I can see more like why you would want to attack the sequence. So attacking Cogburn, are you looking for a big spread?Do you like a couple long shots? What's your strategy there?ClayYeah, I am gonna spread. I'm using the one, the two, the six, eight, and eight, and maybe nine, hold on. No, I think nine's called the end of 12. So I'm not confident in like one or two horses, but I think I can get through with those horses.Yeah, I think I can get through with one of those one, two, three, four, five horses and feel pretty confident. If Cochrane gets beat, it'll be one of those five.MPYeah, I like your idea here as far as, you know, maybe taking on Cogburn. There was one horse that I would mention that that you don't have, and that would be the 10, the South African horse, the Isivunguvungu. I think that that one might be a one you that you might want to add, especially, I will tell you, I do have some inside baseball here because I do a lot of time with Will Humphrey, and he is the exercise rider for this horse, for Graham Motion Stable, and he said that this horse could not be doing any better.ClayYeah, that's fair.Well, that's good to know. I did bet him last time when he was first at Colonial. I think he was like eight or 10 to one morning line, but we had some scratches. I thought he was impressive, but talk about a major step up going from a listed stake at Colonial to the big boys at ah in the Breeders' Cup. But, you know, at 20 to one, you know, why not use him?MPAbsolutely true. And I'm not, you know, while it is a step up, uh, the horse that won this race last year, no balls actually came out of that race at Colonial to win.ClayThat's fair.MPSo, uh, while we talked about the sprint now, we got to go straight to the Distaff and, and, in race number six there.MPAnd here, here we are with Thorpedo Ana for or against this one?ClaySo if Idiomatic didn't scratch, I was this I would have singled Idiomatic here. I really wanted to play against Torpedo Anna here. the problem i mean There's many reasons why people can't oppose her here, and I wouldn't hate somebody for doing it. The problem is I wouldn't necessarily know outside of potentially the Japanese horse how to do it. So I would probably tell people if you're dead against Torpedo Anna, and I give you a couple of reasons why, I'd probably have to go all to beat her and that's not a crazy if you got thinner in the race before or say you wanted to use a single Cogburn I would use all against Thorpedo Anna here I mean she's had a long so campaign Kenny's never one in the Breeders Cup he a lot of times runs them one more time ah than they need and I think that 111 on the page was a fraudulent number so I don't think she's that much of a standout against these howeverI just think she's going to have a tactical advantage and it's probably just classier than these. I'm going to just go Thorpedo Anna in the Japanese horse, which we don't really know much about. She's undefeated. She's a Justify. That's enough reason, but I'll probably just go two nine and hope if I got, uh, I mean, obviously prefer the Japanese horse to win, but, um, I'm going to go too deep there.MPYeah, I like your idea that that if you're going to oppose her that that you want to cast a wide net because it could be chaotic. I mean, the the last is staff ah ah at Del Mar it turned into chaos and and you look, you had a huge long shot win that race.ClayYeah.MPAnd I do understand the thought of opposing her here in the sense that, you know, Gun Song didn't come back to race very well last weekend.ClayRight.mPYou know, that maybe the Fierceness of the race did take a little bit out of her.ClayShe was.MPNow, she was fantastic in that race. I mean, this, you know, and she's been a monster all year long, but she is, you know, a three year old. And like you said, it's, it's the end of the year and there could be other speed in here.I think that the four is apparently a horse that loves to go wickedly fast early. So that's, that's a horse that could turn and put the race on its head. And then beyond that, I mean, who do you really use?I would find, but unless you like the, Awesome Result, the rest of them look the same and really anything can happen.ClayYeah. Now I agree. That's why, you know, and in a scenario like this, if you have it really short, this feeling is going to be one to two. If you oppose her, you don't want to get cute and use one horse opposing, you know, one or two horses. And you really are just saying, Hey, I'm i'm against her and it's chaos and play them all.MPYeah, and with your single win in leg one, that affords you some of that luxury, especially if you're going to play, you know, ah you might you probably have some strategies where you have maybe some some tickets where you have a higher multiple, but then if you take a shot for a smaller multiple, taking all in this race, and if she wins, okay, like, you know, you took a shot, I get that, and I really don't mind that way to look at it.ClayYep. Yeah. yeahMPWell, let's look at the last two real quick. ah Race 7, like you said earlier, wide open Breeders, Cup, Turf. You have ah the mare in here, Emily Upjohn, that probably is going to take some money. ah Beyond that, that you know your typical cast of Europeans, who'd you end up with liking in here?ClaySo I spread here. I mean, and this is just the weakest group of Breeders Cup Turf horses I have ever seen since I've been playing. that No one jumps out. I mean, I guess Rebels Romance is going to be the favorite. I mean, I don't know. He went to Germany last time. I mean, those aren't good horses. um I just don't love anybody in here. I'm going to go mainly Euros because I mean, that's who wins this race. I can't, when was the last time an American won this race? It's been quite a while. Um, I'm going to go two, three, four, five, six, 11. So that is Emily UpJohn, the Japanese Shara, Luxumborg, Farbridge.and Rebels romance. And I honestly, I couldn't, you know, decipher between, you know, A's and B's honestly here. And, you know, I don't think ah Farbridge is that great, but I don't think he's without a shot for the American side. um So that's kind of where I'm standing here.MPYeah, really wide open race. And I do think difficult to separate some of the Europeans. And a lot of it's going to come down the trip. I mean, ah if you you look at the horse like the three last year, he very well could have won the race had he gotten ah the right ride.ClayYeah.MPHe was 25 to 1 in there.ClayThat's right.MPI mean And I think that this year, it's the same kind of thing.ClayRight.MPWhoever gets the best trip, the best ride, especially between the Japanese and the Europeans, that certainly seems logical to spread out in that race. Well, let's go to the Classic. you know and Do you have a strong opinion here to kind of pull it all together?ClayWell. I mean, I like Forever Young quite a bit, but I'm going to try to hit a home run by spreading some here and using some bombs. I might weight them a little differently, but generically, I'm going to use Forever Young, City of Troy.ClayI mean it, I'm going to use it because I don't want to get beat by that horse. and If I've already beat Cogburn and maybe I've hit um you know the Japanese horse instead of the Thorpedo Anna, I do not want to lose to the city of Troy. I'm not crazy about European turf horses on the dirt, but I do not want to get beat by that one. I'm also going to use Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Newgate, and Next. So I have some, you know, shots there that if this thing comes undone, if Next, Newgate, and even Sierra Leone, those are gonna be prices. And if I'm, if I've beaten Cogburn, I'm gonna be alive for decent prices on a ticket that's not that crazy expensive.MPYeah, it looks like you have the right ones there. Against Fierceness then, not using it all?ClayNo, I did use, sorry, and I am using Fierceness.MPOkay, okay, I missed that, okay.ClayI'm probably more middle of the road on him. You know, I've lost so much money on this horse. it's I know he I should be able to take him to court, but um the Derby was just a train wreck, but he's obviously talented. and I do think that Travers number was a little fraudulent, and like I mentioned for Thorpedo. So I don't think he's quite the standout on figs that he looks. He might trip out, but I think he's gonna have more work to do here. He's gonna have to, he's gonna have ah the speed horse crossed over on him, Arthur's ride.ClayHe's gonna have to scramble up more than he has in the past, but I don't want to get beat by him.MPYeah, this could be a wild race. I did hear an interesting stat as far as Aiden O'Brien on the dirt. I think he's two for 56 lifetime on the dirt. And his two wins were Johannesburg was one and Mendelssohn was the other. So both, you know, and and and Breeders Cup races. But the fact that they're coming And if this force wins this race, uh, you know, you probably, it would be a blank check as far as the stud fee goes. And that's why they're here. I'm, I'm at the position, uh, for me that if you like, I think maybe a single, like you, you, you take that, that, uh,ClayYep.MPand try to shrink down and get the equity that way. If you don't, then I would just toss them completely out.ClayYep.MPAnd so that's how I would maybe look at it. But the horse, like what your your strategy with using you know some of these other ones, especially, you know you're you're doing different scenarios.like like Sierra Leone, that one's gonna have to, you know, have a meltdown probably. Arthur's Ride could gallop along on the front. Newgate's sort of an interesting long shot. You know, next is the worst that, you know, we don't really know how good that he is.So I like that that you have all those different scenarios, and if you get a lot, especially with a couple of those favorites beat, I mean, you're gonna have it wrapped.ClayYep.MPI mean, you know, a really good chance to catch a nice ticket.ClayYeah, I really don't see a scenario where this ticket, if it's alive, gets beat. um you know I just don't see a Highland Falls and Mixto, Senor Buscador. I mean, the two Japanese horses. I just don't see them winning. So I feel pretty good about that. um And to your point on ah City of Troy,you know, Aiden O'Brien has got a miserable record on the dirt because he's bringing grass horses. But he's been, I think, declaration of war. And ah um who did Tiznow beat?ClayI forget the name of it.MPGiants CauseswayClayYeah, Giants Causeway. So it's not like he hasn't been close and in the picture.MPRight.ClayAnd I would probably argue the horses that beat those were quite a bit better than the horses we have facing him in this race. So the the art the problem is, especially in the wind pool and probably in the shorter exotics, he's going to be too short for what I think are his chances of winning. I'm opposed to him in the wind pool. But you know I think I still could collect the $3,000 or $4,000 Pick 5 in a lot of these scenarios to him if I beat some of these other horses. So I still want to have that on a ticket that's you know only $180 for $0.50.MPWell, I really appreciate you doing this. I do think that this ah gave a nice look at at how you you know attack this particular sequence, but ah you know pick five in general, your typical strategy for doing things and and you know yeah you're singling and gaining equities in certain places.you're You're trying to play out different scenarios and other races. Very solid and I really, really appreciate the time and I hope to talk to you soon.ClaySounds great, Mike. Thanks for having me on.MPThanks for subscribing to In the Money Plus. We'll see you guys next time.
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