Jay Van Sciver, Head of Industrials and Materials at Hedgeye, shares his thoughts on industrials and materials in 2023. Automobiles, Elon Musk, rails, Norfolk Southern, geopolitical commodities landscape - this podcast runs the gamut; tune in to hear Jay's takes on it all.
For more information about Hedgeye, please visit: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Hedgeye
[1:07] Industrial Sector overview: quick takes on VW, Porsche and other auto makers
[5:31] Additional thoughts on Volkswagen and Lucid
[7:53] Corporate governance issues: specifically referring to Jay's take on Elon Musk
[13:27] Brand awareness of Tesla vs other EV brands
[19:40] Is now the right time to short Tesla?
[25:32] Why does the Porsche short trade exist?
[30:55] Jay's bearish case for Uber
[38:25] Additional thoughts on industrials, specifically, Jay's thoughts on rails
[44:20] Understanding Rails' valuations
[48:05] Opportunity in Norfolk Southern?
[48:59] Materials Jay is looking at
[52:52] Closing remarks


Today's episode is sponsored by: Hedgeye
This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye does fantastic work, and I think that shines through in the conversation we have today. If you like the conversation and are interested in learning more, please check out hedgeye at hedgeye.com

Jay Van Sciver shares his thoughts on Industrials and Materials for 2023

Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.

Please see our legal and disclaimer at: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

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Careers

Management & Marketing

Business News

Shopping

The team that won the Pershing Square Challenge, Garrett Wallis, Jared Duda and Joseph Montgomery Ferguson, joins the podcast to discuss their winning pitch on Valvoline Inc. (NYSE: VVV).

You can find their winning pitch deck here: https://1drv.ms/b/c/b9a8675d1ef0d212/EUgO7sJJKoBBsx151i7xfvkBuTziYI94y8VF02bdym1WmA?e=21DQAc

Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:49] Backgrounds on team that won the Pershing Square Challenge
[3:13] Valvoline Inc. $VVV pitch
[8:57] Store density / DIY customer share
[13:33] $VVV pitch cont'd
[28:26] AutoZone comparison / Franchise model
[35:35] Shift to EV, risks to $VVV?
[39:13] Consumer behavior / why franchisee wants to work with $VVV
[46:47] $VVV bear case / same store sales growth
[57:10] $VVV - variant view that generates alpha
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst. 
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP

Pershing Square Challenge 2024 winning team shares pitch on Valvoline $VVV

Welcome to the first edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: investor conferences (since returning from Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2024), control shareholders, energy drinks and stock advertising.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[3:29] Investor conferences - just returned from the Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2024 / time for a Yet Another Value conference?
[6:28] Control shareholders
[12:24] Energy drinks
[15:24] stock advertising
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts
A typical day in the life of a financial advisor calls for back-to-back client meetings, juggling portfolio management, and the consistent desire to improve client relationships. YCharts’ report and proposal tools could be the missing piece to help you effectively handle these time-consuming tasks.
Now more than ever, clients want to hear from their advisors. And with user-friendly templates at your disposal, generating impactful client reports can be easily integrated into your everyday routine, helping you free up time and focus on what matters most: enhancing client interactions and growing AUM.
Join thousands of users who rely on YCharts by leveraging personalized proposal reports to truly showcase your value add. Click the link in the show notes to start your free YCharts trial and tell them I sent you (new customers only): https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value

Random Ramblings May 2024: conferences, control shareholders, energy drinks and stock advertising

It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this April 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on: the markets as we head into the Summer months, anti-trust, Capri-Tapestry anti-trust case, mergers blocked in greater frequency - has there been another time like this, and more!
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:57] Thoughts on markets as we finish up April and head into the Summer months
[3:47] Growth in the largest businesses in the index
[8:27] Anti-trust
[12:36] Capri-Tapestry anti-trust case
[27:38] Capri-Tapestry cont'd - market definition
[38:43] Last 6 months, 3 mergers have been challenged and blocked - ever been another time like this?
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst. 
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP

Chris DeMuth's State of the Markets April 2024

Julian Lin, Founder of Best of Breed Growth Stocks, an investment newsletter, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Reddit, Inc. (NYSE: RDDT).
$RDDT write-up on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686257-reddit-julian-lins-top-conviction-idea
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:22] What is Reddit $RDDT and why is it interesting to Julian
[2:58] $RDDT bull case
[14:09] Network effects
[20:46] $RDDT bear case: when will they become profitable? What are they spending R&D; on?
[30:45] Valuation
[33:48] $RDDT vs. tier 2 social media platforms (Pinterest, Twitter, SnapChat) / mismanagement
[45:27] Valuation cont'd
[56:53] $RDDT Growth strategy
[1:02:23] $RDDT's Biggest misperceptions
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts
A typical day in the life of a financial advisor calls for back-to-back client meetings, juggling portfolio management, and the consistent desire to improve client relationships. YCharts’ report and proposal tools could be the missing piece to help you effectively handle these time-consuming tasks.
Now more than ever, clients want to hear from their advisors. And with user-friendly templates at your disposal, generating impactful client reports can be easily integrated into your everyday routine, helping you free up time and focus on what matters most: enhancing client interactions and growing AUM.
Join thousands of users who rely on YCharts by leveraging personalized proposal reports to truly showcase your value add. Click the link in the show notes to start your free YCharts trial and tell them I sent you (new customers only): https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value

Best of Breed Growth Stocks' Julian Lin thesis on king of the meme stocks, Reddit $RDDT

Matt Turk joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH), one of North America's largest providers of vertically integrated modular accommodations and value-added hospitality services.
Links:
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/114036124014503/4?cik=1859285
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31s6todiuM8
Matt's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@given2trade4
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:53] What's going on with Target Hospitality $TH and why its interesting to Matt
[8:18] $TH Corporate history and why it's important / 2020 letter compared to 2024 letter from Arrow Group
[31:22] History cont'd of $TH with Arrow Group / why this situations reminds Andrew of $HRT situation
[39:11] Government contract / tail risks
[41:54] Bull case / comparables / rollups
[49:13] Additional risks
[58:50] Likelihood of closing and talking through potential buyout prices[1:04:50] Final thoughts
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst. 
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP

Jay Van Sciver shares his thoughts on Industrials and Materials for 2023

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