Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes

By Meredydd Watts

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Daily insight into equity markets including research calls, factor & sector analysis, key macro events and trends ---- THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing com... more

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FAQs about Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes:

How many episodes does Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 366 episodes available.

Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes episodes:

June 08, 2020 Monday 8th June - Macro themes and factor baskets
Europe trading at intraday highs although -0.3% on day. Macro themes the driver once again as
US 10yr as continues its sell off which further supports equity rally, 2 /10yr spread continues to widen which is positive banks hence the SX7E +3.5% we are seeing buyers in space today.
Some big sectors dispersion & factor baskets moves that are worth highlighting, overall we are seeing a 550bps dispersion between best & worst. Value basket +2.2% now +5% in last 2session and 10% in a week this hs been driven by
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6min
June 05, 2020 Friday 5th June - punchy risk increases Friday
• The European markets have rallied 150bps this morning on volumes up 50%
• US 'potentially' adding $1t of fiscal stim next month With the next Federal Reserve meeting only a week away.
• Risk on indications; seeing the shape of yield curve steepening with the 10yr Eurobonds +5%
• The rally is heavily lead by the Banks +4% and in fact all indicators showing signs of risk on sentiment; Energy and Autos also outperforming
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4min
June 04, 2020 Thursday 4th June 2020
* Europe is trading back at lows -0.8%. Mkt did try to rally off the lows but now fading. Biggest theme is a pause in the risk on trade we have seen dominate this week. This move is being led by some profit taking in Auto’s & insurers both -2% and volumes continue to be heavy >50% in theses sectors.
* Biggest focus today is on ECB update, headlines will hit at 12.45pm UK time but detail will come from with is due at 1.30pm. As we mentioned earlier in the week focus in on details re: Pandemic Emergency Purchase plan Cons. Is that this is increased & extended in duration (the range is ~€250bn to €750bn;
* Auto’s -2.3% worst performing sector in EU led by likes of Daimler -4%, German ruling coalition decided to only subsidies electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles up to a car value of 40k euros. Cars with “normal” combustion engines won’t be subsidized.
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5min
June 03, 2020 Wednesday 3rd June - Beta fuelled rally continues and data shows no short covering... yet
Recorded 10:15am GMT / 5:15 Eastern Time
* Europe +1.5-2% - strong beta led rally continues... volume much better as well
* Insurers, Energy & Autos leading us higher with single stock news and crude rally helping
* Healthcare underperforming and source of funds for rally
* Looking at the positioning in S&P it remains close to record low... so the broad based rally thus far is NOT on covering... but supports the notion covering could support markets more going forward, ie buy the next dip
* Microstrategy note from us well worth a read today... We are looking at cash flow burn
* Two ongoing conferences for us today... Healthcare & renewables
THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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7min
June 02, 2020 Tuesday 2nd June - positive sentiment in Europe this morning
• Sentiment +ve in Europe this am having opened 40bps momentum has picked up and now +150bps on day. S&P futures did see a wobble overnight some newswires pointing at Trump comments but feedback from clients that this was nothing new & so no surprise to see mkts push on.
• Mkt rally led by AUTO's +5%(vol’s +90%) led by German names playing catch up(given mkt closed yday): DIA GY +9%, BMW GY, PAH3 GY and VOW GY +6%. Be aware yday were +ve headlines re: German auto stimulus looks more broad than green.
• Macro front USD getting hit hard with the DXY Index down below 97.50, its lowest level since mid-March. Focus today on ECB at 2.45pm UK time ; ECB will publish the monthly breakdown of its QE purchases, which will for the first time include the details of the PEPP programme
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5min
June 01, 2020 Monday 1st June - Europe up around 50bps this morning
• Europe trading +50bps having been up as much as 110bps this morning
• Europe faded 50bps after headline stating that china is said to halt some US soy imports.. Which reduces the trade 1 deal's chance of survival.
• Various May PMIs today across Europe; Italy recorded the smallest contraction at 45.4 vs cons 36.8, while Germany fared worst which showed a small miss at 36.6 vs cons 36.8. And France came in at 40.6 vs cons at 40.8. The Eurozone just missed at 39.4 cons 39.5.
• In terms of sectors all are in the green; however bear in mind Austria, Germany, Denmark, Norway & Switzerland all closed today for public holidays so this is skewing things a but and volumes are predictably low. Seeing the uptick in the Airlines +3%
• Dollar earners performing well on USD weakness, USDEUR at its lowest in last 2 months
• Steel & Miners +2.5% outperforming: Chinese policymakers announcing an official budget deficit for 2020 that is expected to reach an all time high of 3.6% of GDP.
• Also worth flagging we have a few notes out post our structural winners conference last Friday including: ASOS, SIKA, DB1 GY and BOOHOO.
• Jefferies Healthcare conference starting tomorrow.
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5min
May 29, 2020 Friday 29th May - Europe trading down >1%
• Europe > -1% this morning on slightly elevated volumes, particularly in the Tech and and Healthcare names.
• We have the MSCI rebalance today. Globally, its Healthcare set to have the most buy flow of $3.9b vs Consumer Disc the largest sell flow of $3b.
• And Another equity raise last night ... Flutter to sold 8m shares in a $1b primary issuance, currently trading 4% higher than the issue price. We reiterated our buy
• Keep an eye out for Trump: giving news conference about China today
• Some European markets are closed on Monday; Austria, Germany, Denmark, Norway & Switzerland
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6min
May 28, 2020 Thursday 28th May - Lazy rally feels vulnerable. Value underperforming
Recorded 10:15am GMT / 5:15 Eastern Time
* Europe +0.7% but value notable underperformer, -1%
* Airline +2% (Easyjet +5% on earnings) but Autos and Banks -1% -- so big divergence within value
* Hangover day in Europe with regard to EU rescue fund... after the euphoria yesterday on the grant / loan skew we now need to get it all signed off...
* Heathcare +2% on no news so maybe showing rotation back into stay at home and virus proxies?
* Placings AGAIN. Rolls Royce & IWG placing and have gone very well... despite my call yesterday that perhaps the market was a bit exhausted...

THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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7min
May 27, 2020 Wednesday 27th May - Value really continues! Watch for airline sell signals...
Recorded 10:30am GMT / 5:30am Eastern Time
* Risk on rally continues AGAIN!. Europe +1.5% - banks and autos very strong
* Airline rally also in full swing but watch for sell signals with other areas of value taking up the mantle
* We talk about makeup of rally in terms of lack of rotation and covering contributing
* ECB's Lagarde comments I think a bit too optimistic on projections for Euroarea GDP next week
* HOWEVER - market friendly headline our from the EU commission where they are announcing split of €750m rescue fund with €500 in grants which is a relief to the Southern European countries
THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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8min
May 26, 2020 Tuesday 26th - Massive coverbid in travel & leisure. There is something the mkt is not considering..
Recorded 10:15am GMT / 5:15am Eastern Time
* Risk on rally continues. Europe +1% adding to 1.5% rally yesterday
* UK +2% on catchup trade after market closure yesterday, but that is actually an under performance vs yesterday with GBP +1% a headwind
* Airlines +10% on greater clarity of Lufthansa govt support and Spain following Italy's lead from last week suggesting they will be open for business in time for the tourism season
=> However.. What if we get a tourism war, rather than a currency war. Ie What if countries start to focus internally on tourism? Japan have announced package to incentivise internal tourism...
THIS IS NOT EQUITY RESEARCH: This material is a marketing communication and is not and should not be construed as investment research
Please refer to Jefferies’ important disclosure via this link: www.jefferies.com/globaljefferiesllc
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10min

FAQs about Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes:

How many episodes does Jefferies EMEA Market Minutes have?

The podcast currently has 366 episodes available.