jivetalking

Episode 83: Mike and David revisit their predictions from 6 weeks ago (https://soundcloud.com/jivetalking/75-mike-and-david-discuss-markets-and-coronavirus).

Motto: "Main street ain't wall street."

David's data sources:

Unemployment (backward looking): https://www.bls.gov

Market indices (forward looking): https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx

Consumer sentiment (forward looking): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

Mike's preferred indicators as of 2 June (our call), with weights from 1 (most) to 5 (least) important:

Dow: 25,740

S&P 500: 3,080

NASDAQ: 9,600

Gold: $1,730/oz

Oil: $36.80/bbl

10yr UST: 0.68%

30yr UST: 1.48%

10yr AAA GO: 0.84%

30yr AAA GO: 1.65%

Wholesale Inventories MoM: 0.4% [weight 1]

Retail Inventories MoM: -3.6% [weight 1]

Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (YoY) -16.2% [weight 3]

Personal Income (YoY): 10.5% [weight 3]

Personal Spending (YoY) : -13.6% [weight 3]

Real Personal Spending (YoY) : -12.9% [weight 3]

Consumer Sentiment (Apr 2020): 71.8 [weight 3]

Housing Starts (MoM): -30.2% [weight 3]

Building Permits (MoM): -20.8% [weight 3]

ADP Employment Change (MoM): -2.76 million [weight 3]

Initial Jobless Claims (WoW): 2,12 million [weight 5]

Continuing Claims: 21.1 million [weight 5]

Episode 82: Richard Sexton (https://are.ucdavis.edu/people/faculty/richard-sexton/) is a distinguished professor (and two-time chair) in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis. Sexton was raised on a small dairy farm in East Central Minnesota. He joined the Davis faculty in 1984 after completing his Ph.D. at the University of Minnesota. Sexton’s initial research focus was on the economics of agricultural cooperatives (to which he continues to contribute), but quickly broadened to the industrial organization of agricultural markets—the field that focuses upon the structure of markets, product differentiation, competition, and coordination within the supply chain. Professor Sexton is widely regarded as the world’s leading scholar in this field. He is also an award-winning teacher and advisor. Sexton’s Ph.D. students occupy positions of prominence throughout academia and government. His outreach and professional service have also been exemplary. He has worked directly with many California agricultural industries to address critical economic issues. Sexton is also only the second Davis faculty member to be elected by his peers as president of the AAEA.

Motto: "You can't get an egg back into its shell very easily."

Rich's paper on corona and food supply:

https://giannini.ucop.edu/publications/are-update/issues/2020/23/4/the-coronavirus-and-the-food-supply-chain/

Dumping flowers in NL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZesOc_-JKR4

Episode 81: Dieneke de Weerd (https://www.linkedin.com/in/dienekedeweerd/) is currently an (online) intern at Arcadis. The internship is her final step to finishing up her Msc International Land and Watermanagement, with the specialization Adaptive Water Management at Wageningen University. She is passionate about urban resilience, climate adaptation and water governance, particularly about enhancing living conditions in cities and inspiring change and connection among and within organizations.

A year ago she was selected as Waterambassador Top Sector Water & Maritime to share her enthusiasm about the water sector and join an active network of like minded people. She is currently deciding what she wants to do to start her professional career in the water sector.

Dieneke graduated from LUC's Governance Economics and Development major in 2018.

Motto: "Water goes deeper and deeper."

Here's the network for water talent:

https://destroomversnellers.nl/

You can apply to be a water ambassador until 15 June: https://destroomversnellers.nl/waterambassadeur/

Here are some blog posts (in Dutch) about Dieneke's experiences:

https://m.waterwereldwerk.nl/op-pad-met-nederlandse-waterschappers-van-het-inspiragua-programma-in-colombia-6b8b8795d198

https://m.waterwereldwerk.nl/consultancy-training-in-valencia-spanje-57df77a56492

Episode 84: Antoine Champetier (see Episode 64 -- link below -- for bio) and I talk about crop-insurance shenanigans in the US, JM Keynes's _Economic Consequences of the Peace_ (1919), and various complications regarding information.

Motto: "It ain't what you know that gets ya, but what you don't."

Episode 64 ("Antoine Champetier studies bees' economies")

https://soundcloud.com/jivetalking/64-antoine-champetier-studies-bees-economies

Keynes (1919) https://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Keynes/kynsCP.html

David on Keynes's 1930 essay on productivity: https://one-handed-economist.com/?p=992

David's posts on Marshall's Principles of Economics (1920): https://one-handed-economist.com/?cat=15

Episode 80: Anniek Barnhoorn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/anniekbarnhoorn/) is a Research Assistant with the Climate Change and Risk Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) where she is supporting the institute's work on climate security for the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In January 2020 she obtained a master degree in International Development Studies from Wageningen University and Research. During her master she was also active as a board member for The West Wing, the youth think tank for and by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The Netherlands. Prior to this, she pursued a bachelor degree in Governance Economics and Development at Leiden University College which she completed in 2017.

Motto: "Take time for yourself."

Blog post on Water security in the Horn of Africa:

https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2020/04/regional-approach-water-security-governance-horn-africa/

Episode 79: Brian Richter has been a global leader in water science and conservation for more than 30 years. He is the president of Sustainable Waters (https://www.sustainablewaters.org), a global water education organization, where he promotes sustainable water use and management with governments, corporations, universities, and local communities. He previously served as Director of the Global Water Program of The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation organization. Brian has consulted on more than 170 water projects worldwide. He serves as a water advisor to some of the world’s largest corporations, investment banks, and the United Nations, and has testified before the U.S. Congress on multiple occasions. He also teaches a course on Water Sustainability at the University of Virginia.

Motto: "Everyone wins from managing scarcity."

Day Zero for the Colorado River

https://www.sustainablewaters.org/day-zero-for-the-colorado-river/

Jive Talking episode on private water

https://soundcloud.com/jivetalking/1-water-privatization

_Rights to gross vs net diversions_

David's view:

https://kysq.org/aguanomics/2012/02/water-rights-diversion-or-consumption/

Mike Young replies:

https://kysq.org/aguanomics/2012/03/mike-young-on-water-rights/

Chris Perry adds more:

https://kysq.org/aguanomics/2018/05/chris-perry-on-water-rights/

Episode 78: In this episode, David discusses teaching online (designing courses, teaching remotely, assessing performance) with Steve and Titus.

[Sorry if I -- David -- was a little distracted. There were some weird interruptions during this conversation.]

Motto: "It's possible to teach in many conditions"

Steven Asei-Dantoni specialises in (social) innovation research and practice. He has managed projects in the international development field collaborating with organisations such as UNICEF. Some of his clients include: EDF, Caisse d’Epargne and Adecco. Steven has also guest lectured on the subject in France, South Africa and Denmark. As a keynote speaker, Steven is often invited to share his experiences and vision.In 2016, he was selected to speak at TEDx Bordeaux to provide insight as to how redesigning the classroom experience can assist in solving social problems such as youth violence. Steven worked with municipalities where he applied design thinking and innovation to solve complex problems in the school ecosystem. He co-designed solutions for teachers to be more creative and innovative. Currently he is a lecturer in business management at The Hague University of Applied Sciences and guest lecture at PLNT Leiden and Leiden University College. Steven holds a Master of Arts in Geopolitics and International Relations, and a Bachelor (Hons) of Business Management and Finance.

https://soundcloud.com/jivetalking/52-steven-asei-dantoni-brings-joy-to-teaching

Titus van der Spek (PhD) specialises in (social) entrepreneurship research and practice. In 2014, he co-authored his first book ‘Leadership in Social Enterprise’. He has worked in the field of entrepreneurship and development consulting for 7 years. Some of my clients include: Amnesty International, Local Giving, The University of Essex, the Clean Clothes Campaign (CCC), Action Aid NL, ICS, SOS Children’s Villages, Oxfam Novib and Context, International Cooperation (CIC). As a lecturer Titus has been active for 5 years. Currently he is a lecturer in business management at The Hague University of Applied Sciences and guest lecture at PLNT Leiden, Leiden University and Leiden University College. In 2018 he completed his PhD from the University of Essex “Exploring the crux of social entrepreneurship: The pursuit of blended value creation”. Email Titus: [email protected]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/titusvanderspek/

Link to the honours course on covid-19: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep-jd2eaEX8

https://soundcloud.com/jivetalking/59-titus-van-der-spek-brings-social-to-entrepreneurs

Episode 77: Joris Larik (https://twitter.com/JorisLarik)is an Assistant Professor of Comparative, EU and International Law. He is an expert in EU external relations, comparative foreign relations law, global governance, and the external ramifications of Brexit.

Motto: "It's not just quick and dirty"

Joris's staff profile: https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/joris-larik#tab-1

Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement, and Global Treaty (Re-)Negotiations

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-journal-of-international-law/article/brexit-the-withdrawal-agreement-and-global-treaty-renegotiations/CDCE0B8A50295EFC16F1AADA8FED3B88

EU external relations law and Brexit: ‘When Pluto was a planet’

https://www.scienceopen.com/document/read?vid=a7038c59-92cb-4b28-90fa-bac917fed5ae

Episode 76: Jamie Workman is 50 years old, and he's got some wisdom to share. In this episode, David and James G. (Jamie) Workman (https://www.linkedin.com/in/workman1968/) discuss the realities of being fifty in a complicated world. Jamie is a pioneering writer, speaker, teacher & creator of natural resource conservation markets.

This episode's motto: "Success is relative to your expectations."

Episode 75: Mike lives in the US. He and David talk about the impacts of Coronavirus on markets, the economy, and society.

Sorry about the keyboard noises and occasional loss of volume during this chat!

Episode motto: "What's the price of a different future?"