Mutually assured destruction depends heavily on the premise that rational leaders will step away from the brink of the nuclear abyss in the interests of their countries and the survival of the world. The flaw in this questionable theory was the possibility that control of nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of an insane leader.

Now the Ukraine crisis has raised the fear that Putin has become unstable and therefore more dangerous. Perhaps. But the distinction between a madman and a putatively rational leader who sees his interests in serious jeopardy is irrelevant. Truman, who ordered the attack on Hiroshima, was one of our most rational presidents. A nuclear war is as likely to be sparked by a desperate, cornered leader as by a madman. We cannot depend on Putin’s mental health to keep us safe from a nuclear exchange.

The war in Ukraine is a showdown between autocracy and a liberal free world. The outcome is much more likely to be determined by force than by diplomacy and sanctions. It would be wonderful if nuclear weapons could be removed from the calculus of force that will stop Putin. Unfortunately, history suggests otherwise.

By John M. Crisp

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.