JSEDirect with Simon Brown

This special broadcast is the recording of the Budget Panel 2026 with AJM, Baker Tilly Greenwoods, and FNB.

Simon Brown hosts and his guests are;

• The Hon Ashor Sarupen Dep Fin Minister
• Mamello Matikinca chief economist at FNB
• Dr Christo Wiese – business man
• Dr Albertus Marais – Partner AJM

🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 667

📅 25 February 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft

⚡ Eskom: 280 Days Without Load Shedding

• South Africa has now reached 280 days without load shedding. Standard Bank's electricity tracker report highlights that the last significant outages were 26 hours across April and May 2025, taking the effective streak back to 26 March 2024. After 17 years of load shedding since 2008, the energy availability factor and other key metrics are looking dramatically better. Credit goes to Eskom's operational improvements, industrial-scale solar and wind investment, and households with rooftop solar installations.

🇺🇸 Trump's Tariff Chaos: Supreme Court Ruling & What Comes Next

The ruling: The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose tariffs, finding no international emergency existed. This is a significant legal defeat.

The refund problem: Roughly $150–170 billion in tariffs have been collected. Companies like Walmart and Costco will want that money back, since the Supreme Court has effectively declared these tariffs illegal. Chief Justice Roberts acknowledged the refund process will be "messy" — an understatement.

Trump's new move: On Friday evening, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, signing an executive order imposing a flat 10% tariff on all countries (with the law allowing up to 15%). This is a notable reduction for South Africa, which was previously on 30%. However, this only runs for 150 days, expiring mid-July.

Other legal avenues Trump could pursue:

Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Used against China in his first term, but requires formal investigations and findings — too slow for Trump's style.

Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): Allows up to 50% tariffs without investigation, has never been used, and would almost certainly face court challenges.

The bottom line: Tariffs aren't going away. Trump views them as a political weapon and a negotiating stick. He'll keep finding new legislative tools to wield them. Around a dozen trade deals have been signed under the "90 deals in 90 days" framework, though countries that signed early (like the UK at ~10%) may feel they overpaid.

📢 Upcoming Event: Protecting Your Portfolio & Navigating Scams

🗓️ 24 March | 11:00 AM | Webcast with 1nvest

First in a series covering protecting your portfolio and navigating scams, with social media red flags guidance from Lungeli at 1nvest, plus a conversation with 1nvest's compliance officer on what financial advice looks like (and what it doesn't). Future webcasts will cover emerging markets vs tech vs developed markets, income investing, and commodities.

👉 More info and booking at **JustOneLap.com/events**

💻 SaaS Stocks Under Pressure: Is Vibe Coding Really the Threat?

Software-as-a-service stocks have been hammered on fears that "vibe coding" (using AI tools to build software) could replace platforms like Salesforce. Simon is sceptical — replacing the software is perhaps 10% of the challenge. The real difficulty is retraining tens of thousands of staff, migrating data without losses, and managing a massive transition process.

Goldman Sachs' SOHO Index shows capital-heavy stocks (manufacturers, farmers) up nearly 40% since June 2025, while capital-light stocks (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet) have been largely flat — a notable divergence.

IBM dropped ~10% on news that Anthropic's Claude Code can convert COBOL to modern languages, but Simon remains cautious about overhyping AI capabilities. He's currently reviewing a 20-page AI-generated SaaS research report from Claude Opus 4.6 and will report back next week.

💰 Budget 2026 Preview

What to expect:

Fiscal drag relief is likely, funded by extra revenue from precious metals booms (higher corporate tax and dividend tax from gold and PGM miners) and SARS's clampdown on arrears (~R20 billion recovered).

Tax-free savings annual limit could increase from R36,000 — possibly to R40,000 or even R60,000 (per Nireena Fissa of ETFSA, since 60,000 divides neatly by 12). This costs Treasury very little in the short term since the big capital gains tax hit is years away.

Reg 28 changes: Unlikely — these would cost Treasury money immediately.

Capital gains exclusion (R40,000): Unlikely to change despite being unchanged for over a decade — another stealth tax.

Interest exemptions: No changes expected.

Simon's tax tip: He's been selling down long-held ETF positions (originally ITRIX, now Cygnia World) to use the R40,000 annual CGT exclusion, then reinvesting into a different ETF with a better total expense ratio. Important: don't sell and rebuy the same instrument immediately — SARS treats that as "washing."

Overall expectation: A boring budget, which is exactly what markets want.

📊 Commodities Check-In

Palladium 🔩 Broke through $1,100 and $1,200 early last year, pulled back to $1,350 late in 2025, now consolidating around $1,617–$1,700. Support sits at the $1,650–$1,700 level. Not going to the moon, but holding at higher levels — which is what matters.

Platinum 🪙 Broke $1,000 in June, then $1,250 in July. Has since consolidated around the $2,000–$2,150 range, well off the $2,800 high but maintaining higher support levels. Results from Sibanye-Stillwater, Impala Platinum, and Northam confirm the improved earnings picture.

Gold Currently at $5,153 and running hard. Simon admits gold has proved him wrong — after January's volatile drop of nearly $1,000 from the $5,600 high to the Monday low, he expected consolidation around $4,500 or even $4,000. Instead, gold consolidated around $5,000 and has resumed its rally. His advice for those who feel they've "missed" the run: scale in gradually, buying a third at current prices and adding on dips or at intervals.

Brent Crude Oil Had been under pressure until the US detained the president of Venezuela (heavy, sour crude — less critical but still impactful). Oil briefly dipped below $60 but has since recovered. The $70–$71.50 level is important resistance; a break above targets $80 and then mid-$80s. Looks like a short-term blip for now — hopefully not the start of a longer trend.

💱 Rand/Dollar Update The rand is trading around R16.02 to the dollar, with the trend firmly toward a weaker dollar. Foreigners have been net buyers of South African bonds, and the US dollar index continues to show weakness — something Trump actively wants. If the dollar loses another 7–8%, that could push the rand into the mid-R14s. Sounds dramatic, but as Simon puts it: "Don't fight the rand."

🎙️ Next week:

Budget reaction + AI SaaS research report review

Thanks for listening — look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too. ✌️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets - Episode 666 📊

18 February 2025 🇿🇦 South African Economic Indicators

• Unemployment hits 5-year low - but still a tragic 31.4%
• The Achilles heel: Need GDP growth to break below 20%
• 10-year bond yields at decade lows - 7.97% (down from 11% during load shedding)
• Government saving on new bond issuances, though impact is modest
• Potential budget windfall from precious metals next week

ZA 10-year yield | weekly

🤖 AI Valuations: Testing Anthropic's Opus 4.6

• Can AI do DCF valuations? Testing on Dell (NYSE: DELL)
• Opus 4.6 created detailed discounted cash flow model in ~10 minutes
• 148 formulas, zero errors (after self-correction)
• Fair value estimate: $172 vs current ~$115 (significant upside potential)
• ⚠️ Important caveats: Sensitivity assumptions critical (WACC, terminal growth, risk-free rate)
• DCF is just ONE valuation methodology
• Rate limiting kicks in with heavy usage ($20/month tier)
• US stocks work better than local stocks currently

💼 US Economy Update

• Strong fundamentals emerging:
  • $600B+ capex spend by hyperscalers (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft)
  • Better-than-expected January CPI
  • Unemployment at 4.3% (jobs report revised down 1M though)
  • GDP tracking closer to 3% than 1-1.5%
• Two rate cuts still on the table for 2025
• Tech infrastructure spending providing economic underpin

🚚 The Karaoke Company Logistics Disruption (?)

• Algorhythm stock chaos: Up 222% Friday, another 15% pre-market Tuesday
• From karaoke company to AI logistics software ("SemiCab") in 6 months
• Entire logistics sector sold off on the news
• Reality check needed: Santova and others already doing this with Oscar software
• Market overreaction? Small operators still use fax machines
• Don't panic-short established players like Santova

📅 Upcoming Events

• Power Hour Thursday 5:30pm - Tax efficiency & ETF revolution (Standard Bank Rosebank or webcast)
• ETF database updated with FNB, 10X, 1nnvest, Satrix funds
• Budget next Wednesday - Simon will be in Cape Town

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

"Look after yourself. If you can look after somebody else as well." 💚

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665

📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🌍 This week in markets

• Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️
• Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮‍💨
• Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿
• A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉

🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle

• 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations
• 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included
• The hyperscalers:
  • Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️
• The "shovel sellers":
  • Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC 🧑‍🏭🪓
• Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light
• Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."

📊 Stocks & charts

• Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress
• Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts ✅
• Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏
• 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀

🤖 Software shock & AI disruption

• Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure
• New AI tools like Claude and "vibe coding" spooking SaaS names 💻😬
• Reality check:
  • Niche software may struggle
  • Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace

🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies

• Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k
• Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️
• Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥
• Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️

🌐 The debasement trade

• Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries
• China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉
• Key takeaway:
  • This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢
• Governments reduce debt via:
  • Inflation
  • Currency weakness

🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers

• Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected
• Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁
• Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦
  • Forward PE near 10
  • Analysts broadly constructive

⚒️ Junior miners: why it's so hard

• Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes*
• The commodity may be in the ground – but:
  • Extraction is complex
  • Capital is hard to raise
  • Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧
• Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢
• Even experienced operators fail

📢 Events & deadlines

• Power Hour – 19 February 🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank
  • Tax-free investing beyond TFSA
  • ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28
• Important reminder ⏰
  • Many providers have early contribution deadlines
  • Don't leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute

👉 More info: justonelap.com/events

🙌 Wrapping up

• CapEx boom isn't over – but cracks are forming
• AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven
• Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving
• Stay cautious, stay curious

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 664

📅 Recorded: Tuesday midday | 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown

This week on Worldwide Markets, we unpack a wild ride across commodities, central banks, tech titans, and global trade — with gold stealing the spotlight once again.

🟡 Has Gold Bottomed?

Gold went vertical — and then snapped back hard.

• 📈 Ran from around $4,300 → $5,600, before a brutal sell-off

• 📉 Dropped to $4,600, now stabilising near $4,900

• 🕯️ That giant red "kangaroo tail" candle looks ugly — but…

The bigger picture hasn't changed:

• 💵 Debasement trade still intact

• 🌍 Central banks bought ~800 tonnes last year

• 🏦 ETF investors were big buyers again after selling in 2024

➡️ Verdict: Likely consolidation, not collapse. Sideways is the base case.

Gold |Weekly | 03 February 2026

🧱 Commodities Ran Too Hot

It wasn't just gold:

• 🔩 Copper, silver, platinum, palladium all surged

• 🛢️ Brent crude nearly hit $70

• 🪨 Aluminium hit US record prices, creating transatlantic arbitrage

Nothing goes straight up forever — profit-taking was inevitable.

🪙 What About Silver?

Simon stays honest here:

• ❓ Industrial demand and price dislocations matter

• ⚠️ But silver remains complex and opaque

💡 Portfolio stance:

• ✅ Holding gold miners

• ✅ Holding gold ETFs (local & offshore)

• ❌ No silver exposure — and comfortable with that

🏦 Fed Drama: Enter Steve Walsh

Trump's Fed chair nominee spooked markets — but context matters:

• 🔄 Walsh is not a hawk, more a rate flip-flopper

• 🗳️ Previously opposed rate cuts… until Trump won

• 📉 Trump wants lower rates — Walsh says he'll deliver

The challenge?

• 🧠 Convincing the rest of the FOMC

• 🪑 Jerome Powell still has influence for now

➡️ Expect noise, not an instant policy pivot.

🚀 SpaceX + xAI = Trillion-Dollar IPO?

Big Elon energy this week:

• 🛰️ SpaceX acquires xAI

• 🧠 Grok + data + power + space = big ambitions

• 📊 IPO rumoured for mid-2026

• 💰 Valuation likely north of $1 trillion

Simon likes SpaceX… less excited by the social-media side.

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales: Still Strong

January numbers surprised again:

• 📊 Sales near levels last seen in 2019 / early 2022

• 🏆 Toyota leads, but Chinese brands keep climbing

• 🇨🇳 Chery, GWM, JAC & friends reshaping the market

Consumers are still buying — despite high rates.

🤝 US–India Trade "Peace"… Sort Of

A deal was announced, but details are fuzzy:

• 📉 Tariffs reduced (somewhat)

• 🛢️ India supposedly to stop buying Russian oil (👀)

• 💸 India to buy $500bn of US goods (timeline unclear)

History lesson:

• 🌮 Trump tariff threats turn real only ~20% of the time

• ⚖️ Supreme Court still deciding if Trump even has the authority

➡️ Lots of headlines, fewer guarantees.

🎓 Upcoming Event: Power Hour

📅 19 February 📍 Rosebank (in-person) + webcast 💡 Topic: Tax-Free Investing & ETFs

👉 Book at justonelap.com/events

👋 Closing Thoughts

Markets are noisy, emotional, and fast — but the big-picture trends still matter more than the candles.

Until next week: 🤍 Look after yourself 🤍 And if you can, look after someone else too

Cheers! 🍻

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 663

📅 28 January | Recorded late Tuesday afternoon Host: Simon Brown

Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing 🌍💳

This week a quick look at gold and the Rand, both did what was expected over the year in the first month.

Then picks for the Cristal Challenge 2026 and the Moneyweb Investor Challenge.

Three bankers that go into each challenge. Then four floaters, two per each challenge to mix it up a bit.

Best of luck to all who enter :)

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

For the thirteenth year in a row Keith McLachlan, Marc Ashton and Simon Brown kick off the new year with a predictions show.

First they check in and mark what they said last year. Then they each offer three predictions for the year ahead and a view on the Top40 and Rand/

Find last years show here.

🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660

🎙️ The Best and Worst of the JSE in 2025

📅 10 December 2025 🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🏁 Opening Thoughts

• Last podcast of 2025! 🎉

• A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏

• A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈

• Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞

🎥 Power Hour Recap — Position Your Portfolio for 2026

📌 Highlights included:

• 🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!)

• 🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch

• 💰 Gold & commodities outlook

• 🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks

• 🚀 IPO environment

• 🧭 Positioning for 2026

Watch here.

🥇 Best Performers of the JSE in 2025 🪙 1. Precious Metals: The Dominant Theme of 2025

Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.

Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):

• 🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯

• 🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%

• 🥉 Northam — +214%

• 🏅 Gold Fields — +195%

• Implats — +153%

• Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range

• Harmony — +119%

📌 Why the boom?

• Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕

• Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock

• Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations

💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.

🎓 2. Education Sector Winners

• 🎓 Stadio — +89%

• 🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals

• 📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%

🟣 3. Purple Group* & EasyEquities

• +87% 🚀

• Bull markets = busy brokers

• Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact

📡 4. Telcos Roar Back (From a Very Low Base)

• 📱 MTN — +76%

• 🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum)

• 🔌 IOCA — +65%

• ☎️ Telkom — +60%

• 🟥 Vodacom — +38%

📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.

💰 5. Standout Financials & Miscellaneous

• 🟪 Sygnia — +72%

• 💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer)

• 🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!)

• 🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43%

• 🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends)

• 🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc.

• 🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40%

• 💼 Capitec — +29%

• 🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec

• 🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split)

• 🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)

🛒 6. Retail: The Year's Big Disappointment

• 🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list)

• 🥩 Spur — +15%

• 🍗 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🛒 Shoprite* — –4.6% (value emerging)

• 🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround)

• 👗 Mr Price* — –26% (Simon still sees value)

• 👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery

🔻 Worst Performers of the JSE in 2025 💥 Biggest Losers

• 🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52%

• 👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50%

• 📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges)

• 🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity)

• 💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak)

• 🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out)

• 📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling

🛒 Retailers Under Pressure

• 🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite* + Pick n Pay)

• 👖 Mr Price* — –26%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — –16%

• 🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling

📉 Macro, Risks & 2026 Outlook 🌱 Green Shoots in South Africa

• Early signs of improvement appearing

• Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets

• REITs & banks starting from low valuations

⚠️ Risks

• Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside

• A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard

• External shocks more dangerous than local issues

📈 Global Watch: The Mag 7 & Market Signals

• Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA

• Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering

• Nvidia chart still healthy

• Gold still bullish

• Oil looks very weak

🤝 Closing the Year

Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:

• ✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns."

• ❄️ Be safe this festive season

• 🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)

• 🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.

🔗 Powered By

🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets 🌍 Shyft – the global money app 💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

"It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It"

📆 3 December 2025 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully

• Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year.

• If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but.

• Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market

• Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend.

• Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence.

• Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere

• Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days.

• Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward.

• Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts

• SA tried three times to get a budget passed.

• Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises.

• Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery

• US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off.

• By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7.

• Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025

• Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate.

• Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon's Mind

• Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

  • ❌ slow

  • ❌ bad at text

  • ❌ struggles with edits

• NanoBanana + Gemini 3:

  • ⚡ insanely fast

  • 🔠 perfect text edits

  • 🎨 clean output

• Alphabet has:

  • 💰 massive free cash flow

  • 🌐 billions of users

  • 📢 advertising infrastructure

• → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping?

• Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing.

• Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

  • ⬇️ Only Meta is below.

  • Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

• Conclusion:

  • 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet.

  • More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly

• Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively.

• Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k.

• Breaking support levels:

  • ⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely.

• Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:

  • 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.

  • ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots

Q3 2025 GDP:

• 📈 +0.5% QoQ

• 📈 +2.1% YoY

• 🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.

  • Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most

Reasons:

• 👍 GDP uptick

• ⬆️ Credit upgrades

• ⬇️ Lower expected inflation

• ⬇️ Lower rates coming

• 🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

• Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×

• Yields: high single digits

• Winners depend on style:

  • 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank

  • ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB

  • 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch

• Formerly Capital & Counties.

• Own Covent Garden & key West End locations.

• Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42.

• Fundamentals:

  • 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)

  • 📉 Yield 2.7%

  • 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

• Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone

• SA REITs had:

  • 🚀 Huge 2024

  • 📈 Strong 2025

• Many now trade around NAV:

  • Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV

  • Octodec → still at discount

• Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.

• Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.

• If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025

• Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year.

• Small caps that surprised everyone.

• Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up

A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always: 💙 Look after yourself. 🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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