Julius Baer CIO Monthly – a view from the top on key market trends

Yves Bonzon, Chief Investment Officer, in dialogue with Amanda Kayne, reminds investors that evidence shows that those investment portfolios without any restrictions tend to outperform those with restrictions.  A new year is a good time for investors to re-visit any constraints they may have in their portfolios to understand if they still make sense or not. No limits in a portfolio means it is free to diversify across all asset classes and in turn can benefit from the year ahead, both in terms of expected and unexpected events to come. Keep in mind that the bond bull market of the past three decades is most likely behind us and the US border tax initiative on the table could have unintended but bad consequences for the profitability of the S&P500.

Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, shares with Amanda Kayne why he believes that 2016 could go down in markets' history as the year that started the early stages of an upward trend in interest rates and ended the thirty-five-year-long bull market in bonds.

CIO Dr. Burkhard Varnholt, Head Currency Research David Kohl sowie Head Fixed Income Research Markus Allenspach sprechen über die aktuellen Ereignisse nach der überraschenden Bekanntgabe der SNB.

Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, in dialogue with Amanda Kayne, highlights the trend of politics as the key driver for the economy that is demanding a shift in the way we invest. Many in the western world are casting votes in the belief they are the losers of globalization that started three or so decades ago. Hence why we have witnessed the historic external shocks of this year. At the same time, and with thanks to a more stable China, EU and of course the banking system, systemic risks such as the financial crisis 2008, are much lower than in recent years. This in turn means that assets like gold and US treasuries lose merit in portfolios.

In a dialogue with Amanda Kayne, Yves Bonzon, Chief Investment Officer, highlights a radical paradigm shift in the way markets are driven for example, some of the strongest currencies (the Brazilian real) and the weakest currencies (the British pound) in the world are driven by political developments not economics. Yves goes on to say that it is no longer like 1992 when one could bet on the British pound leaving the European monetary mechanism based on economic analysis. Today you are dealing with political decisions that are very hard to predict. Furthermore, there is a growing amount of money managed systematically but there is no algorithm-based investment rule in the world that can capture these breaking points. He warns investors to think carefully when managing money since a bull market in politics is here to stay.

Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, tells Amanda Kayne how to position portfolios when markets continue to progress at moderate speed. Watch this video interview to find out why longer term emerging market performance is in the hands of the US Federal Reserve and why selected bonds are an important asset in the mix currently despite the low yield environment we are facing.

In dialogue with Amanda Kayne, Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, outlines why the current policy mix is having little impact on the real economy and explains why now is a good time to buy cheap protection in preparation for two major political events that may take a turn for the worse later in the year: US Presidential elections and an Italian referendum.

Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, shares his views on markets with Amanda Kayne. Politics is hard to predict so investors, left with much uncertainty, are in a wait and see mode. Distrust in European policy making is nonetheless evident among investors with the amount of capital fleeing the European Union into other markets deemed safer such as the US, or perhaps riskier regions in emerging markets. Japan may have the chance of a steal if policymakers there are able lure money into the economy by impressing investors with their fiscal stimulus.

Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, expresses his views and the consequences to come following the UK vote to leave the EU.

Chief Investment Officer, Yves Bonzon, expresses his views and the consequences to come following the UK vote to leave the EU.