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Kansas Wheat Harvest: Smaller Crop, Bigger Stakes
Kansas wheat farmers are facing a mixed harvest, fragile margins, and fertilizer markets that are finally easing but still hard to pencil.
Aaron Harries and Justin Gilpin are joined by Mike O’Dea and Josh Linville of StoneX for a wide-ranging market discussion on Kansas harvest progress, hard red winter wheat quality, export competitiveness, fertilizer prices, and crop-input security. They cover what low yields and variable protein may mean for basis, why U.S. wheat is finding new export opportunity, and how producers can think through nitrogen purchases with so much uncertainty still in the market.
Key takeaways:
Timestamped rundown
00:00 — Opening clips
Mike O’Dea previews wheat export competitiveness, while Josh Linville frames the fertilizer market: prices are down, but grain prices are still painful.
00:24 — Episode introduction
00:24 — Episode introduction
Aaron Harries introduces the StoneX roundtable with Mike O’Dea, Josh Linville, and Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin.
00:42 — An unusual Kansas harvest
00:42 — An unusual Kansas harvest
The group discusses an early harvest start, test cutting before Memorial Day, delays from rain and humidity, and combines beginning to roll statewide.
01:54 — Field reports on yield and quality
01:54 — Field reports on yield and quality
O’Dea shares early Kansas harvest observations, including low protein in parts of central and southern Kansas, stronger numbers farther west, and wide yield variation.
03:00 — USDA numbers and crop size expectations
03:00 — USDA numbers and crop size expectations
The conversation turns to harvested acres, USDA yield adjustments, and the possibility of a hard red winter wheat crop around the 490-million- to 500-million-bushel range.
04:14 — Wheat spreads and production history
04:14 — Wheat spreads and production history
The group discusses Kansas City-Chicago relationships and compares the current hard red winter wheat situation with previous drought-impacted years.
05:41 — Export competitiveness returns
05:41 — Export competitiveness returns
O’Dea explains how lower Kansas City futures have made U.S. wheat more competitive in some channels, including Mexico, while Black Sea and French values remain key comparisons.
06:33 — Nigeria and global buyers
06:33 — Nigeria and global buyers
Gilpin notes recent conversations with a Nigerian trade group and how quickly U.S. wheat competitiveness has changed in just a few weeks.
07:33 — Europe, Russia, and global wheat quality
07:33 — Europe, Russia, and global wheat quality
O’Dea outlines possible quality concerns in southern Russia, heat risk in Western Europe, and the importance of milling versus feed wheat spreads later in the year.
08:18 — Minneapolis wheat contract changes
08:18 — Minneapolis wheat contract changes
The discussion shifts to spring wheat, Minneapolis contract changes, and how those changes could affect futures, basis, and spreads.
09:38 — Spring wheat tour outlook
09:38 — Spring wheat tour outlook
The Wheat Quality Council spring wheat tour is highlighted as a useful event to watch, especially with attention on spring wheat quality.
10:30 — Urea prices fall sharply
10:30 — Urea prices fall sharply
Linville explains that NOLA urea has dropped hard from recent highs, but weak grain prices still make the fertilizer-to-grain ratio difficult for producers.
12:23 — Nitrogen demand destruction
12:23 — Nitrogen demand destruction
Linville says global nitrogen demand likely has been trimmed by a few percentage points, which can still represent a major tonnage shift worldwide.
13:37 — Fertilizer buying advice
13:37 — Fertilizer buying advice
The key advice: keep communicating with suppliers, follow both fertilizer and grain prices, and consider buying fertilizer in layers.
15:11 — Crop inputs and food security
15:11 — Crop inputs and food security
The group discusses how U.S. food security depends on imported fertilizer and why that reality is drawing more attention from policymakers.
16:49 — Nitrogen, phosphate, and potash strategy
16:49 — Nitrogen, phosphate, and potash strategy
Linville argues for more domestic nitrogen production, stronger long-term phosphate relationships with allies, and maintaining strong potash trade with Canada.
20:23 — Final wheat market outlook
20:23 — Final wheat market outlook
O’Dea says wheat futures may stay rangebound without a new production or quality problem, but he believes short-term lows may be in.
21:31 — Closing
21:31 — Closing
The episode wraps with thanks to StoneX and a reminder to subscribe and share the podcast.
Kansas Wheat
WheatsOnYorMind.com
View all episodes
By Kansas Wheat Commission
5
55 ratings
Kansas wheat farmers are facing a mixed harvest, fragile margins, and fertilizer markets that are finally easing but still hard to pencil.
Aaron Harries and Justin Gilpin are joined by Mike O’Dea and Josh Linville of StoneX for a wide-ranging market discussion on Kansas harvest progress, hard red winter wheat quality, export competitiveness, fertilizer prices, and crop-input security. They cover what low yields and variable protein may mean for basis, why U.S. wheat is finding new export opportunity, and how producers can think through nitrogen purchases with so much uncertainty still in the market.
Key takeaways:
Timestamped rundown
00:00 — Opening clips
Mike O’Dea previews wheat export competitiveness, while Josh Linville frames the fertilizer market: prices are down, but grain prices are still painful.
00:24 — Episode introduction
00:24 — Episode introduction
Aaron Harries introduces the StoneX roundtable with Mike O’Dea, Josh Linville, and Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin.
00:42 — An unusual Kansas harvest
00:42 — An unusual Kansas harvest
The group discusses an early harvest start, test cutting before Memorial Day, delays from rain and humidity, and combines beginning to roll statewide.
01:54 — Field reports on yield and quality
01:54 — Field reports on yield and quality
O’Dea shares early Kansas harvest observations, including low protein in parts of central and southern Kansas, stronger numbers farther west, and wide yield variation.
03:00 — USDA numbers and crop size expectations
03:00 — USDA numbers and crop size expectations
The conversation turns to harvested acres, USDA yield adjustments, and the possibility of a hard red winter wheat crop around the 490-million- to 500-million-bushel range.
04:14 — Wheat spreads and production history
04:14 — Wheat spreads and production history
The group discusses Kansas City-Chicago relationships and compares the current hard red winter wheat situation with previous drought-impacted years.
05:41 — Export competitiveness returns
05:41 — Export competitiveness returns
O’Dea explains how lower Kansas City futures have made U.S. wheat more competitive in some channels, including Mexico, while Black Sea and French values remain key comparisons.
06:33 — Nigeria and global buyers
06:33 — Nigeria and global buyers
Gilpin notes recent conversations with a Nigerian trade group and how quickly U.S. wheat competitiveness has changed in just a few weeks.
07:33 — Europe, Russia, and global wheat quality
07:33 — Europe, Russia, and global wheat quality
O’Dea outlines possible quality concerns in southern Russia, heat risk in Western Europe, and the importance of milling versus feed wheat spreads later in the year.
08:18 — Minneapolis wheat contract changes
08:18 — Minneapolis wheat contract changes
The discussion shifts to spring wheat, Minneapolis contract changes, and how those changes could affect futures, basis, and spreads.
09:38 — Spring wheat tour outlook
09:38 — Spring wheat tour outlook
The Wheat Quality Council spring wheat tour is highlighted as a useful event to watch, especially with attention on spring wheat quality.
10:30 — Urea prices fall sharply
10:30 — Urea prices fall sharply
Linville explains that NOLA urea has dropped hard from recent highs, but weak grain prices still make the fertilizer-to-grain ratio difficult for producers.
12:23 — Nitrogen demand destruction
12:23 — Nitrogen demand destruction
Linville says global nitrogen demand likely has been trimmed by a few percentage points, which can still represent a major tonnage shift worldwide.
13:37 — Fertilizer buying advice
13:37 — Fertilizer buying advice
The key advice: keep communicating with suppliers, follow both fertilizer and grain prices, and consider buying fertilizer in layers.
15:11 — Crop inputs and food security
15:11 — Crop inputs and food security
The group discusses how U.S. food security depends on imported fertilizer and why that reality is drawing more attention from policymakers.
16:49 — Nitrogen, phosphate, and potash strategy
16:49 — Nitrogen, phosphate, and potash strategy
Linville argues for more domestic nitrogen production, stronger long-term phosphate relationships with allies, and maintaining strong potash trade with Canada.
20:23 — Final wheat market outlook
20:23 — Final wheat market outlook
O’Dea says wheat futures may stay rangebound without a new production or quality problem, but he believes short-term lows may be in.
21:31 — Closing
21:31 — Closing
The episode wraps with thanks to StoneX and a reminder to subscribe and share the podcast.
Kansas Wheat
WheatsOnYorMind.com
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