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🚜 Farm Aid & Government Funding

Senate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed).

The proposal includes:
Additional bridge payments
Support for specialty crop producers
Higher farm ownership and operating loan limits
Aid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed prices
Lawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislation
Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28

A possible government shutdown on January 30 could:
Delay FBA payments
Delay any new farm aid package
The House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved

🌍 Global Trade & Geopolitics
President Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland
10% tariffs begin February 1
Increase to 25% on June 1
Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase Greenland
The EU is weighing retaliatory trade measures
Trump also said he would consider using force if negotiations fail

Market reaction:
S&P 500 futures down 1.8%
European and UK equities sharply lower
US dollar weaker against major currencies

🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade Deal
China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1
Tariffs also reduced on:
Lobsters
Crabs
Peas

Canada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs
China has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October
Canada continues diversifying trade away from the US

🌱 South American Crop Update
Brazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule
2% harvested as of last Thursday
vs. 1.7% at the same time last year
Rainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areas
World Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production

📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
Large speculators were heavy sellers last week:
Corn: Net sellers of 78k contracts
Net short now 91k (largest since late October)
Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contracts
Net short 20k (largest since mid-October)
Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts

🚢 Export Activity
USDA reported multiple corn flash sales:
298k mt to unknown destinations
120k mt to Japan
Both sales are for the 2025/26 marketing year
Accumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year

🐄 Cattle Market Shock
Live and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concerns
Texas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US border
The pest is expected to eventually reach the US

Market reaction:
Live cattle down as much as $4.45
Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10

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Farm Economy Under Pressure
Headlines this week focused squarely on the deteriorating US farm economy. The Wall Street Journal published an article detailing the challenges facing US soybean farmers, including high input costs, weak commodity prices, rising competition from Brazil, and sluggish export demand. The piece also referenced USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, noting that while helpful in the short term, it does not address deeper structural issues.
Reuters published similar coverage, emphasizing tighter bank lending standards, increasing financial stress, and a rise in farm bankruptcies. Together, the articles underscore mounting pressure on farmers and the broader ripple effects across rural America. 

Soybean Oil & Biofuels
Soybean oil futures surged on Thursday, gaining as much as 3.8% on expectations that the Trump administration will finalize US biofuel-blending quotas by March. Last June, the EPA proposed a sizable increase in biomass-based diesel targets, which would significantly boost soybean oil demand. There is optimism that stronger biofuel demand could help offset weak soybean export performance.

NOPA Crush Update
The National Oilseed Processors Association released its December crush report, showing US soybean crush at its second-highest level on record. NOPA members processed 224.99 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly above trade expectations.
For full-year 2025, crush totaled nearly 2.4 billion bushels—an 8% increase from 2024. End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose to 1.64 billion pounds, the highest level since May 2024, up sharply from both last month and last year, though just below average trade estimates.

Brazil Soybean Crop
Brazil’s soybean crop is shaping up to be record large. Agroconsult raised its estimate to 182.2 mmt, citing strong field conditions and limited widespread issues. Meanwhile, Conab trimmed its estimate slightly to 176.1 mmt due to marginally lower yield expectations. Even so, the crop remains record large and would exceed last season’s production. 

Export Sales
US corn export sales impressed last week, with net sales of 1.1 mmt. While down from the prior four-week average, the number was a strong rebound from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer.
Soybean sales exceeded expectations at 2.1 mmt, up sharply week-over-week and well above the recent average. China was the largest buyer. Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations at 156,300 mt, with unknown destinations leading purchases.

USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday:
Soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery
Additional soybean sales for 2026/27 delivery
Corn sales to Japan and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery

Drought Monitor Update
USDA’s latest drought data showed mixed but generally improving conditions across parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains. Above-normal precipitation helped reduce drought intensity in portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas, while conditions worsened slightly in southern Missouri.
US Areas Experiencing Drought
Corn: 28%
Soybeans: 34%
Winter Wheat: 41%
Spring Wheat: 10%
Cattle: 34%

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🌽 Argentina Corn Crop Update
Argentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas.
For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt.

📈 Corn & Soybean Futures
Corn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels.
March corn settled near $4.22
March soybeans closed around $10.43
The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report.

🔥 US Ethanol Production
US ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels.

According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp sell-off in corn futures.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports
China imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty.
China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement.

🚢 USDA Flash Sales
The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:
136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea
334,000 mt of soybeans sold to China
Both were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

🥈 Silver & Gold Hit Records
Silver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago.
Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.

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🌽 Ethanol & E15 Push

The Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum.

The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes.

Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term:
Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offs
Consumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy it
Production capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacity
An E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars.

🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCA

President Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1.
Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below.

🥩 Beef Prices Hit New Records

Ground beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%.

Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below.

🌱 Soybean Flash Sales
USDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday:
168,000 mt to China
152,404 mt to Mexico
Both are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

📊 Inflation Update

The December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022.
Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below.

🌎 Largest US Landowner

The owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres.

Other top landowners include:
Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acres
John Malone: ~2.2 million acres
Ted Turner: ~2.0 million acres
Jeff Bezos: ~462,000 acres
Bill Gates: ~275,000 acres

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🌽 Corn

Corn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA.

The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise.

USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record.

🌾 Winter Wheat

US winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million.

Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California.

Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over year
Soft red winter wheat: modest increase
White winter wheat: sharp decline

🚜 Farm Policy & Aid

The American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses.

Duvall is urging:
Expanded trade opportunities
Labor reform
Year-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costs

Farm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs.

🚢 Exports & Demand

US soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total.

Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectations
Wheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over week

USDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn:
204,000 mt to South Korea
310,000 mt to unknown destinations
Both for 2025/26 delivery.

🏛️ Macro & Markets

Republican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets.

Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.

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🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks)
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report.
• Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large
• Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly
• US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower
• Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly
• Corn exports are forecast at record highs
• Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China
• World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged

🇨🇳 China Buys More US Soybeans
China purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment.
• At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf
• The remainder will ship from the PNW
• The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin
• Several smaller flash sales were also reported last week
Despite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship.

🚢 USDA Flash Sale Update
USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
• Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year

🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest Begins
Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal.
• 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39%
• Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year
• Warm, dry weather is expected to persist
Both Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop.

📊 CFTC Fund Positioning
For the week ending January 6:
• Funds were net buyers of corn
• Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend)
• Net sellers of SRW wheat

💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate Cap
President Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%.
• Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability
• Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments
• Proposal could take effect as early as January 20
Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.

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🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, alongside the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Analysts are expecting a notable decline in U.S. corn production and yield, while soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly. U.S. ending stocks for corn and wheat are projected to edge lower, while soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. World-ending stocks are forecast to remain mostly unchanged, except for wheat, where a sizable increase is anticipated.

📉 2026 Corn Price Outlook
Ample global corn supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. University of Missouri Extension ag economist Ben Brown expects U.S. corn acreage to fall to 95 million acres this year as farmers respond to tight margins. Even with fewer acres, last year’s record corn crop continues to weigh on prices. Brown sees limited upside unless a major South American weather event hits yields—and even then, any rally is likely to be short-lived. Ethanol demand remains a bright spot, and finalized biofuel regulations could provide additional support. Ultimately, meaningful price improvement will require reduced global production.

🚢 Weekly Export Sales
U.S. corn export sales were weak last week. For the week ending January 1, net corn sales hit a marketing-year low at 377,600 mt (15 million bushels), down 49% from the previous week and 76% below the prior four-week average. South Korea was the top buyer. Despite the poor weekly number, accumulated corn sales remain 30% above last year.
Net soybean sales totaled 877,900 mt (32 million bushels), down 26% week-over-week and 42% below the four-week average. China accounted for roughly half of total sales.
Net wheat sales came in at 118,700 mt (4 million bushels), below expectations for the second straight week. Sales were up 24% from last week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the largest buyer.

🐄 Cattle Markets & Screwworm Update
New World screwworm cases in Mexico have dropped sharply in recent weeks. Mexico’s ag ministry reports cases are down 57% since mid-December, with 492 active cases concentrated in a handful of states. Construction of a sterile-fly breeding facility in southern Mexico is roughly halfway complete and is expected to begin operations in the first half of this year. Despite improvement, three cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas near the Texas border since late December. The ongoing border closure, in place since May 2025, continues to tighten feeder cattle supplies and push cattle prices to record highs.

🌱 China Soybean Flash Sale
USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Thursday. U.S. exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. China has now completed more than 80% of its 12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase agreement.

🌡️ Drought Monitor Update
USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt following a warm, dry winter. About 37% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% at this time last year. The High Plains also saw temperatures well above normal—some areas running as much as 15°F above average—resulting in the driest start to winter on record in parts of the region.

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🌱 Grain Markets

Soybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with the Mar26 contract jumping nearly 11 cents to settle around $10.67. The move was driven by renewed Chinese demand, including reports that Sinograin purchased multiple U.S. soybean cargoes, plus a confirmed flash sale to China earlier this week. Corn and wheat futures also closed higher.

🥩 New U.S. Dietary Guidelines

Updated U.S. dietary guidelines place a stronger emphasis on protein intake and full-fat dairy, while discouraging ultra-processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbs. The new guidance calls for protein at every meal and higher daily intake levels than previously recommended. Unlike past guidelines, there’s less focus on plant-based proteins or whole grains. The American Heart Association pushed back, warning of potential cardiovascular risks tied to higher consumption of red meat, salt, and full-fat dairy.

🌽 Ethanol Update

U.S. ethanol production declined modestly last week, while ethanol stocks increased. Despite the production dip, margins remain solid across much of the Corn Belt, with many plants still running comfortably in positive territory based on current corn, DDG, and input prices.

🏠 Housing & Interest Rates

Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. Lower borrowing costs have boosted both home purchase activity and refinancing interest, with buyers responding quickly to improved affordability.

🏘️ Institutional Home Buying Debate

President Trump proposed banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes as part of a broader housing affordability push. Markets reacted negatively, though economists note institutional investors own only a small share of the total housing stock. Critics warn the policy could reduce housing supply and potentially worsen affordability rather than improve it.

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🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn Demand

The Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake.

The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch.

Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage. 

🌱 China Buys U.S. Soybeans

USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement.

Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter. 

🚢 Brazil Export Update

Brazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand.

Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season. 

🚜 Farmer Sentiment Slips

U.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier.

Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced. 

📈 Stocks, Oil & Venezuela

U.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs.

Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel. 

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🌎 Geopolitics & Oil
The U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.

For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.

President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.

Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.

We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:
Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)
Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)
Panama / Noriega (1989)

🚢 Export Inspections
USDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.
Soybeans: 980,518 mt
Up from the prior week
Down vs. last year
China accounted for roughly 40%

Corn: 1.2 mmt
Lower vs. last week
Strongly higher vs. last year

Wheat: 183,305 mt
Below expectations
Sharply lower week-over-week and year-over-year

Marketing-year-to-date shipments:
Soybeans: sharply behind last year
Corn: well ahead
Wheat: modestly higher

📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.
Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyer
Corn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by Mexico
Wheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination

🌱 Brazil Crop Update
StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.
Conab: 177.6 mmt
USDA: 175 mmt
Based on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.
Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.

💰 Fund Positioning
The CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.
Funds continued selling corn and soybeans
Soybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-November
Small net buying was seen in SRW wheat

🥇 Metals & Macro
Gold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.