Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Monday, with Dec26 gaining ~16¢ to close at $5.43/bu. The move was driven by hopes for stronger Chinese demand and rain slowing Corn Belt harvest.

🌱 Soybeans jumped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, with Nov26 up ~25¢ to $13.28/bu. Traders are betting the talks could lead China to drop its 10% tariff and let private buyers start purchasing again.

🌾 Wheat also closed higher as Russia and Ukraine traded drone strikes, cooling hopes for a de-escalation. US-China trade talks wrapped their second day Monday ahead of the big Trump-Xi sit-down.

🚜 Crop conditions held steady while harvest progress sped up nationwide. Corn crop rated 57% good/excellent (harvest 13% done) and soybeans held at 58% good/excellent (harvest 12% done), with winter wheat planting at 17%.

⛽ Diesel prices hit a record $6.51/gal, sparking calls from farm-state Republicans for an export ban. The White House says it's not considering restrictions yet, even as Ag Secretary Rollins hints at a fuel-cost relief plan soon.

🚗 California finally cleared the path for E15 sales after Gov. Newsom signed new legislation. The move could save drivers billions and add ~650 million gallons of annual ethanol demand in the state.

🚢 Russia is shifting grain exports to Baltic and Arctic ports as Black Sea shipping stays restricted. Exports were down 31% July-August y/y, even as USDA expects only a modest hit to Russia's overall grain trade.

📦 US corn and soybean export inspections came in strong last week, beating expectations and last year's pace. China made up 59% of corn inspections, while wheat shipments lagged, down 64% vs. the same week last year.

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⛽ Diesel Prices – National average diesel hit a record $6.51/gal on Sunday, up 76% year-over-year, with off-road diesel nearing $6.00/gal in many areas. Fuel costs are adding $11/acre to corn and $7/acre to soybean budgets, and USDA Secretary Rollins hints at coming relief announcements. 💸

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Meeting – Trump and Xi meet in Washington Thursday to tackle AI, trade, Taiwan, and the Iran war, with ag trade a key focus. China has crossed the halfway mark on its 25mmt soybean commitment, and weekend talks between Bessent and Li Chenggang were called "very successful." 🤝

🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall – Heavy rain soaked eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois over the weekend, with some spots topping 4 inches and flash-flooding concerns Sunday morning. Saturated fields could delay harvest, though a drier week is expected ahead. 🌽

📉 Grain Markets – Soybeans dropped ~16 cents Friday to $13.04, pressured by profit-taking, weaker crude, and advancing harvest, while corn slid 3 cents to $5.28. Wheat also finished lower as traders eye a possible Black Sea de-escalation and this week's Trump-Xi summit. 📊

💰 CFTC Fund Positioning – Managed money's corn net-long hit a fresh record at 414,460 contracts, edging out last week's mark by a single contract. Funds trimmed soybean longs by 16k (still 2nd-largest on record) and sold 9k SRW wheat contracts. 📈

🚢 Soybean Flash Sale – USDA confirmed a fresh flash sale of 111,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. It's another sign of steady, if incremental, progress toward China's purchase commitment. 🌱

🐄 Cattle on Feed – September 1 inventory rose 1% YOY to 11.16 million head, while August placements fell to a record-low 1.62 million and marketings hit a record-low 1.52 million. The report looks bullish on the surface, but shrinking marketings raise questions about the cattle pipeline down the road — though the market's real focus stays on Thursday's Santa Teresa port reopening for Mexican feeder cattle. 🥩

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🫘 Soybean meal ripped to a new contract high of $372.90 before settling at $368.70 as rain threatens to delay Corn Belt harvest just as crush plants scramble for beans. 📈 Corn and wheat both settled lower, with wheat pressured by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine deal that could ease Black Sea shipping.

⚔️ Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran or pursue a diplomatic path, with a Tuesday meeting set with six Gulf nations to map out next steps. ⛽ Meanwhile diesel hit a record $6.45/gal and gasoline jumped to $4.47/gal, ramping up inflationary and political pressure.

📉 US corn export sales fell 47% week-over-week to 1mmt, with Mexico the top buyer. 🇨🇳 Soybean sales dropped 35% to 1.7mmt with China leading purchases, while wheat sales rose 68% to 325,900mt on demand from the Philippines.

🌧️ USDA's drought monitor showed improvement in parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains after heavy rain, with total drought coverage now at 25% vs. 37% a year ago. 🐄 Winter wheat (57%) and cattle (58%) remain the most drought-stressed categories.

🇲🇽 The Santa Teresa port will reopen to Mexican feeder cattle imports on September 24, becoming the second border crossing to resume after nearly two years of screwworm-related closures. 🐮 Imports will start slow at ~750 head/day, adding to the roughly 6,000 head already processed since Douglas, AZ reopened in August.

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🌧️ Heavy rain is soaking the Corn Belt again, with parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin bracing for up to 10 inches through the weekend. Harvest delays and flooding are expected as fieldwork stalls across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

💰 The Fed hiked interest rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in over three years. Energy prices from the US-Iran war and inflation at 3.4% are keeping pressure on for possibly another hike this year.

🌱 Soybeans ticked up ahead of US-China trade talks, with the Nov26 contract near $13.21 as traders eye stronger Chinese purchases. Corn slipped slightly to $5.34 on the Dec26 contract, while wheat finished modestly higher.

⛽ Russia looks set to extend its diesel export ban through October as Ukrainian drone strikes keep hammering refining capacity. US diesel prices hit a record $6.31/gallon as the global market feels the squeeze.

🌾 Black Sea attacks are forcing Russia to reroute wheat exports through pricier, less efficient Baltic and Far East channels. Despite the disruption, USDA still expects Russia to remain the world's top wheat exporter this year.

🏭 US ethanol production held steady at 1.099 million barrels per day, up 4.2% year-over-year. Stocks climbed to a 19-week high while margins across the Corn Belt stayed mostly positive.

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🌱 NOPA August Crush Data – US soybean crush hit an 11-month low of 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% from July, but still an all-time record for August. Soybean oil stocks tumbled to their lowest since November 2024 at 1.201 billion pounds, missing trade estimates. 📉

📈 Grains Rally – Soybeans surged nearly 15 cents to $13.19/bushel as the smaller-than-expected crush lit a fire under meal futures, with corn and wheat riding the spillover higher. 🌽🌾 Wheat also got a boost from hopes of Black Sea de-escalation.

⛽ Diesel Export Ban Talk – Senate Majority Leader John Thune floated banning diesel exports as US prices hit a record $6.27/gallon, though the Trump administration hasn't signed on. 🚛 Critics doubt a ban would meaningfully lower prices, and some lawmakers are pushing a federal diesel tax suspension instead.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Tariff Talks – The US and China are negotiating tariff cuts on ~$30 billion in trade, including agricultural goods, just a week before Xi's visit to meet President Trump. 🤝 Lower tariffs could spark fresh Chinese soybean buying, a welcome boost as US crushers face tight Q4 supplies.

🌧️ Canadian Wheat Harvest Delays – Persistent rain has stalled what was shaping up to be a record Canadian wheat crop, with Saskatchewan only 27% harvested (vs. a 58% average) and Alberta at 21% (vs. 44%). ❄️ No freeze is expected until late November, but every wet day raises the risk of quality losses.

💹 Treasury Yields Spike – The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, driven by surging oil prices and inflation fears tied to Middle East tensions. 🏦 AI-fueled corporate borrowing and rising government debt are adding extra upward pressure ahead of the Fed's rate decision.

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🌱 CHS Announces Major Wisconsin Soybean Plant: CHS is building a ~$700 million soybean processing facility near Evansville, WI, capable of crushing 80 million bushels annually and boosting the company's total capacity by more than two-thirds. 🏗️ Set to open in fall 2028, the plant would theoretically process ~66% of Wisconsin's entire soybean crop.

🇨🇳 China Passes Halfway Mark on Soybean Purchases: China booked at least 1mmt of US soybeans last week, pushing total marketing-year purchases to roughly 13mmt against its 25mmt annual commitment through 2028. 🤝 The milestone lands just ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Washington next week, with hopes the buying pace keeps fueling the soybean rally.

🌾 Wheat Slides on Black Sea De-Escalation Signs: Chicago wheat fell 3 cents to $7.22/bu and KC wheat dropped 6 cents to $7.93/bu after Trump announced Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt energy infrastructure attacks. 📈 Soybeans and corn moved higher instead, climbing 8 and 3 cents, respectively, on harvest delay concerns and rising crude prices.

🚂 Rail Fuel Surcharges Spike 153%: Average rail fuel surcharges jumped to 48 cents per car-mile, now eating up 11% of total transport costs for corn and soybeans, more than double last year. ⛽ Soaring diesel prices ($6.23/gal national average) are driving the increase, with costs ultimately trickling down to farmers via weaker basis.

🌽 Corn Conditions Tick Up, Harvest Begins: Corn ratings improved slightly to 57% good-to-excellent while harvest hit 8% complete, in line with the five-year average. 🫘 Soybean conditions held steady at 58% good-to-excellent, with harvest just getting started at 6% complete.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Kicks Off: Brazilian soybean planting reached 0.4% complete, running ahead of last year's pace despite excessive moisture slowing progress in some regions. 🌽 First-crop corn planting also advanced to 22% complete, well ahead of both last week and last year.

🚢 Export Inspections Mixed Last Week: Corn shipments slipped 9% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybean shipments jumped 45% to 672,759mt with China making up about 49% of inspections. 📦 Wheat shipments rose 5.9% to 456,720mt but remained well below year-ago levels.

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🌽 USDA cut its national corn yield to 178.5 bpa (from 180.7) and production to 15.8 billion bushels, close to expectations. 📉 Even so, it's still the second-largest corn crop on record, while corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels (stocks-to-use below 10%) and global stocks hit a 12-year low; soybean yield ticked up to 52.8 bpa.

🔥 August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, driven largely by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices. 📈 Traders now see a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up sharply from roughly 70% before the report.

💰 Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds net buying 13k corn and 22k soybean contracts, pushing both net longs to record highs (414k corn, 257k soybeans). 📊 Funds sold 10k SRW wheat contracts, but the combined corn/soybean/wheat fund net long hit a record 696k contracts.

🎲 Kalshi is eyeing an expansion into agricultural perpetual futures, aiming to give farmers and traders a new way to gain leveraged exposure to commodity prices. ⛽ The company is also pursuing an oil-linked perpetual tied to WTI crude, with contracts trading 23 hours a day, five days a week.

🌎 Corn export sales came in at 1.9mmt for the new marketing year, beating expectations with Mexico as the top buyer, while soybean sales jumped 35% week-over-week to 2.6mmt led by China. 🌾 Wheat sales hit a marketing-year low of 194,200mt, down 38% from the prior week, with the Philippines as the top buyer.

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🌱 Soybeans surge on China demand — Nov26 futures jumped nearly 23¢ to close near $13.32/bu after China snapped up ~1mmt of US soybeans this week. The buying comes just two weeks ahead of the expected Xi-Trump meeting in Washington 🇺🇸🇨🇳.

📊 USDA WASDE Day — Traders are bracing for today's 11am CST Crop Production report, with a notable cut to corn yield expected and only modest reductions to soybeans. Corn ending stocks are projected to fall sharply while wheat stocks edge higher, both domestically and globally 🌽🌾.

🛢️ Crude oil rockets higher — Brent surged 6.3% to top $107/bbl and WTI jumped 6.7% above $102/bbl, both hitting highs not seen since mid-May, as Middle East attacks disrupted export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned the US-Iran conflict could drag past the midterms, while gas prices climbed to $4.28/gal ⛽🔥.

📈 Inflation heats up — August PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, driven largely by a 4.2% jump in energy prices. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike, with the CPI report due out this morning 💵📉.

⛽ Ethanol update — Weekly production slipped 1% to 1.1M barrels/day, even as stocks climbed to a seasonal high of 25.19M barrels. Corn Belt margins strengthened, ranging from 5¢ negative to 40¢ positive 🌽🏭.

🚢 Flash sales to China — USDA confirmed 272,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 206,500mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. Check the China soybean purchase tracker below for the full picture 🇨🇳📦.

🌦️ Drought & weather watch — Rain eased drought in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while dry heat worsened conditions across Illinois, Missouri and Oklahoma. NOAA confirmed summer 2026 was the hottest on record for the US, with August alone averaging a record 75.6°F 🌡️🌵.

🥇 Kalshi breaks new ground — The prediction platform launched gold and silver perpetual futures after CFTC approval — the agency's first nod for a non-crypto perpetual. Traditional exchanges like CME are pushing back hard against the move 🥈⚖️.

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🛢️ Oil Surges on US-Iran Tensions—Brent crude jumped 3.4% to top $100/barrel (highest since late May), while WTI climbed 3.3% to over $96. Pain at the pump continues as gas hits $4.22/gallon and diesel sets a record $5.94/gallon, squeezing consumers and supply chains alike! ⛽📈

🌾 Wheat Tumbles Despite War Disruptions—Chicago wheat fell ~18¢ to $7.29/bushel, and KC wheat dropped ~13¢ to $8.06, even as Russia-Ukraine strikes choke off Black Sea shipments. Hopes for resumed US-mediated peace talks seem to be capping the rally. 🕊️📉

🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Ahead of USDA Report—Corn eased ~6¢ to $5.28/bushel, and soybeans lost ~7¢ to $13.10 as traders position for Friday's big WASDE release. 📊⏳

📅 All Eyes on Friday's WASDE Report—Traders expect a notable cut to corn yield/production and a smaller trim to soybeans, with US corn stocks seen falling sharply. Globally, the story looks similar: corn stocks down big, soybeans down modestly, and wheat ticking higher. 🔍🌍

🇷🇺 Sovecon Slashes Russian Wheat Export Forecast—The group now sees 2026/27 wheat exports at 41.4mmt (-7.2%) and total grain exports at 49.4mmt (-8.2%) as Black Sea AND Sea of Azov shipments get disrupted. Sovecon warns this could hit markets even harder than the 2022 crisis, since both major exporters are now blocked. ⚠️🚢

🌍 New Suppliers Step Up as Ukraine Struggles—Argentina's corn exports could hit a record 10mmt this Aug-Sept (vs. the usual 3mmt!), while the US is filling Europe's corn gap, supplying 40%+ of EU imports in July-August. Drought-hit EU corn imports are set to jump to 25mmt as Ukrainian supply lines stay squeezed. 🇦🇷🇺🇸🇪🇺

🇲🇽🇨🇳 Fresh Flash Sales Hit the Tape—USDA confirmed 182,880mt of corn sold to Mexico, plus 340,000mt of soybeans to China and 100,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. Strong demand signals even as markets digest bearish price action elsewhere! 🚢💰

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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates: StoneX trimmed its corn yield forecast to 182.9 bpa but raised production to 16.207 billion bushels on higher acreage. Soybean yield held at 53 bpa while production climbed to 4.547 billion bushels—all eyes now turn to Friday's USDA WASDE report. 📊

🌾 Crop Conditions & Harvest: Corn conditions slipped slightly to 56% good-to-excellent as harvest kicked off at 5% complete nationally. 🚜 Soybeans held steady at 58% g/e, spring wheat harvest raced to 86% done, and winter wheat planting is just getting started at 2%.

📈 Wheat Futures Surge: Wheat futures jumped Tuesday as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal faded, with Chicago wheat up 13¢ to $7.47/bu and KC wheat up 17¢ to $8.19/bu. ⚔️ Corn slipped to $5.34/bu while soybeans gained to $13.16/bu ahead of Friday's big report.

🤖 AI on the Farm: About 17% of farmers worldwide are now using generative AI, making it one of ag's fastest-growing technologies. 🧑‍🌾 US farmers lead the charge, leaning on AI for everything from agronomic advice to daily decision-making amid rising costs and weather uncertainty.

🚢 Export Inspections: Corn export inspections blew past expectations at 1.7mmt, up 11% week-over-week and 15% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean shipments rose 49% from the prior week to 422,016mt (though down YoY), while wheat shipments slipped to 342,733mt with no Chinese purchases recorded.

🔶 Copper Hits Record Highs: LME copper broke above $14,600/mt this month, fueled by a rush of shipments into the US ahead of possible tariffs. ⚡ Long-term demand from AI data centers, EVs, and clean energy — plus supply worries from mining disruptions — keeps the bullish outlook intact.