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We walk through a bruising week in grains and ask what smart marketing looks like when funds bail, seasonal lows show up, and input costs still won’t cooperate. Then we shift to the real-world shocks and policy levers that could change demand fast, from screwworm in Texas to 45Z sustainable aviation fuel rules and the timing of U.S.-China trade moves. 
• grain and soy complex correction tied to improved weather, weak China demand signals, and fund liquidation 
• old-crop selling mistakes and why pairing cash sales with call options can manage risk 
• key USDA dates ahead, including WASDE and crop production, June acreage, and grain stocks 
• New World Screwworm cases in South Texas, the 12-mile containment focus, and what an expanded radius could mean 
• border closure impacts on cattle supplies and the longer-run buildout of Mexico’s feeding industry 
• 45Z rule progress, the GREET model, carbon intensity scoring, and why SAF demand could lift corn and soy 
• U.S.-China board of trade timeline, comment deadlines, and how tariff modifications could affect ag competitiveness 
• tough House hearing moments for Secretary Rollins, including glyphosate claims and a push to boost domestic cotton use 
• India trade agreement optimism tempered by India’s history of protecting sensitive farm sectors 
• Senate Farm Bill expectations, including SNAP cost share fights and what likely stays out of the bill 
• year-round E15 hurdles, slow station adoption, and the role of SRE eligibility and reallocation 
• primary election signals in Iowa and how podcasts are changing campaign strategy 
• structural versus cyclical downturn debate with Brazil competition, China uncertainty, and margin pressure 
If you’re not a subscriber, you should be, because all the really juicy stuff, excluding what we do here with Jim, is paid for by subscribers. To be a paid subscriber, $25 a month, $250 annually. You can sign up for Trade the News for a free trial. Go over to Trade the News, tell them the AgBull boy sent you. 

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New World screwworm jumps to the top of the cattle conversation, and we sort out what USDA actually communicated versus what people think they heard. We also connect the pest narrative to market structure, especially why a strong basis and managed money long liquidation can pressure futures and pull on cash decisions. 
• USDA’s New World screwworm messaging, five-point plan, and what remains unclear 
• No food safety issue but real risk of negative consumer reaction 
• Why cattle movement drives spread and why the border closure bought time 
• Practical biosecurity, treatment tools, and the need to put eyes on cattle 
• Sterile fly technique limits today and why added capacity matters 
• How states may respond and why quarantine protocols could shape trade 
• Managed money net long positions and how long liquidation hits futures 
• Why June and August basis levels look unusually strong 
• Seasonal spring peak patterns and what futures imply for summer cash 
• Feeder cattle speculation unwind and why deferred discounts may be too bearish 
Yeah, if you're watching, listening, have something that or a chart that you'd like to maybe see in an episode coming up, let us know. 

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We track why corn, soybeans, and wheat weaken while soybean oil stays hot, then zoom out to the geopolitical and policy headlines that can hit farm input costs fast. From Hormuz to the Farm Bill to biofuel credits, we connect the dots between news flow and what it means for planting decisions, logistics, and demand.

• Weekly ag market recap and why June bull markets are rare for corn 
• US Iran proposal and why the Strait of Hormuz matters for fertilizer, fuel, and shipping 
• Specialty crop bridge aid details, payment design concerns, and eligibility limits 
• FTC fertilizer investigation and what data could reveal 
• Congress returns, USDA oversight hearing, and the Senate math behind Farm Bill 2.0 
• USDA ag trade outlook, persistent trade deficit, and Brazil’s growing share 
• China buying signals, tariff timing, and the “border trade” setup 
• Union Pacific Norfolk Southern merger timeline and key questions for captive shippers 
• IEEPA tariff refunds, the portal process, and why filing speed matters 
• 45Z sustainable aviation fuel credits, carbon scoring, and what could change soy demand 
• Record RIN prices, year-round E15 politics, and what to watch from EPA next

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We’re in Nashville on a bare-bones setup, but the markets are anything but simple as nearly every major ag commodity closes down and sets up a weekend of headline risk. We walk through Tom Leffler’s slides to put the week’s damage in context, then zoom out to seasonals, cattle volatility, and what we’re watching next month. 
• weekly futures scoreboard across cattle, hogs, corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton 
• year-over-year context to judge whether prices are still historically strong 
• USDA monthly average cash prices and how basis changes what you actually receive 
• seasonal patterns for Kansas City wheat highs after January 1 
• seasonal timing for new-crop soybean highs and why early-year highs are unusual 
• seasonal timing for December corn highs and how to use it in a marketing plan 
• feeder cattle technical levels and why they matter right now 
• algorithms and managed money driving futures beyond cash signals 
• expanded daily limits in live cattle and feeder cattle plus the trade-offs 
• what we’re watching next month in managed money, soy crush, and cattle cash trade 
If you can come back in for lunch or in the evenings and watch these videos, they'll help out a lot.

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We run through a fast, heavy week across grains, livestock, and macro policy, then zoom in on why cattle volatility and sticky food inflation are getting political. We connect fertilizer strategy, trade fights, court risk, and shipping rules to what you pay at the store and what you hedge on the board. 
• weekly moves across corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, cattle, feeders, and hogs 
• demand still solid, but early signs of trade-down buying in meat 
• cattle on feed takeaways, including heavy placements and lower marketings 
• feeder cattle limit-style action and why exits matter 
• USDA fertilizer strategy and the “national security” framing 
• Moroccan phosphate countervailing duties and the cost to farmers 
• China ag trade uncertainty and why USDA flash sales are the real signal 
• Cargill labor dispute risk and how it could tighten beef supplies 
• Supreme Court pesticide labeling case and implications for glyphosate 
• beef TRQ import debate and the split between inflation and rancher policy 
• Senate farm bill timeline pressures, including SNAP cost sharing and E15 gaps 
• USDA food inflation forecast with beef projected sharply higher 
• Fed leadership change talk and what it could mean for rates and volatility 
• Jones Act waiver impacts on diesel shipping, freight, and fertilizer flows 
• crude oil and local gas price check heading into the holiday 
“Do me a favor, if you could, please, don't just go to YouTube, subscribe to YouTube.” “Move over to the premium side, www.agbull.com,$25 a month,$250 annually.” “Tell them the Agbull Boy's sent you to trade the news, get a free trial over there, check that out.” “Drop a comment. What did you pay for gas locally when you traveled this weekend?” 

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We break down why markets feel whippy right now, from wheat supply shocks and trade headlines to fertilizer costs that keep sneaking back into every margin conversation. We keep coming back to one driver we can’t ignore: rising interest rates and Treasury yields that set the tone for everything from hedging to farm finances. 
• cotton, soybeans, corn, and wheat reacting to summit expectations and profit taking 
• why markets can peak on bullish news and bottom on bearish news 
• USDA NASS winter wheat estimates surprising the trade and tightening stocks 
• North Dakota dust storm and wind damage risk for spring wheat and replant decisions 
• Trump-China summit takeaways including tariff frameworks, shipping costs, and beef plant registrations 
• year-round E15 clearing the House and the Senate path staying uncertain 
• the RFS waiver fight and why assumptions matter for ethanol and biodiesel demand 
• Mexico pork restrictions focused on specific products and what it means for packer margins 
• USMEF export study showing how beef and pork exports add value to corn and soybeans 
• fertilizer hearing highlights, domestic production timelines, and oil price pressure 
• beef import tariff plan delayed after backlash 
• Kevin Warsh taking the Fed as CPI, PPI, and Treasury yields push “higher for longer” 
• Iran conflict risk feeding energy inflation and spilling into ag inputs 
• Corteva outlook on gene editing and hybrid wheat as a real productivity lever 
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We walk through the market and policy drivers that could swing agriculture next week, from USDA May data and the wheat tour to a Trump Xi summit that may reshape demand for key commodities. We also connect geopolitics, drought, energy, and Washington decisions to the real-world risk farmers and traders manage every day. 
• cotton rally context and what could extend it 
• grain pullback after a strong run and why crude oil matters 
• cattle and feeder cattle trend amid drought and slow herd rebuilding 
• soybean oil spread dynamics tied to renewable fuels policy and 45Z expectations 
• winter wheat tour focus on HRW production and abandonment risk 
• Iran ceasefire uncertainty and why geopolitics now drives market volatility 
• drought map takeaways for planting progress and yield psychology 
• year-round E15 prospects in Congress and the infrastructure lag 
• Trump Xi summit deliverables and potential ag purchase commitments 
• tariff court ruling, Section 301 path, and timing risks 
• tariff refunds and liquidity implications for companies 
• interest rates, sticky inflation, and debt pressure 
• farm aid and ag disaster package timeline and legislative vehicle questions 
• DOJ action on AgriStats and what it signals for the meat sector 
• fertilizer price constraints now and possible long-term domestic supply strategy 
Drop us a note. Where'd you subscribe? Did you subscribe to Apple Podcasts, Spotify Podcast, YouTube? 
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We get a ground-level read on Washington, DC as Jesse Allen returns from the NAFB Washington Watch fly-in after meeting with USDA leaders and a long list of senators and House ag lawmakers. We talk through the farm bill chaos, the fertilizer and diesel cost squeeze, and why farmers feel pressure from both policy delays and public backlash.
• what the NAFB Washington Watch fly-in looks like and why it matters
• who Jesse meets across USDA and Capitol Hill, including one-on-one conversations
• why the House farm bill vote turns chaotic around E15 and amendments
• talk of more farmer aid and the reality of high input costs
• consumers losing touch with food production and vilifying farmers
• diesel shock and war-driven supply chain strain hitting rural America
• long-term fertilizer production plans versus the short-term cash crunch
• the simple goal most farmers share, fair markets and stable livelihoods

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Futures and options trading involve risk and are not suited for everyone.

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Futures and options trading involve risk and are not suited for everyone.

We break down why commodity markets are suddenly “in play” again and what that means for protecting price when you’re above crop insurance levels. We also walk through the House farm bill drama and the policy fights that could reshape farm margins long before harvest. 
• corn at a 13-month high close and soybeans stronger 
• cotton at contract highs and what that means for break-evens 
• why we call these levels hedgeable and protectable 
• House farm bill passes 224–200, and why that vote matters 
• pesticide language stripped and what MAHA proves politically 
• year-round E15 pulled and why refiners still drive the debate 
• Prop 12 stays in the House bill, and why the Senate may not 
• fertilizer cost-price squeeze tied to global supply disruptions 
• longer-term plan to reshore fertilizer production to the US 
• USMCA issues that need fixes without blowing it up 
• ag labor reform as the next legislative pressure point 
• new farmer aid timing, ag disaster needs, and drought risk 
• Mexico border reopening delayed again by screwworm cases 
We’d love to see it on the paid premium side. To be part of this costs $25 a month or $250 annually at agbull.com. Go over to tradethenews.com, tell them the AgBull boys sent you. 

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We sit down with Paul Nefer to unpack the farm policy changes that actually move money, from SDRP top-ups to base-acre expansions and shifting ARC/PLC payments. We also talk through OBA payment-limit headaches and why USDA guidance and paperwork can be the difference between clarity and chaos. 
• SDRP “double-up” mechanics and why Stage 1 gets more 
• Payment limits, AGI thresholds, and why entity type matters 
• Why farmers don’t get compensated for basis 
• Base-acre increases, planting history, and what stays protected 
• Why the ARC/PLC signup timing change helps decisions 
• How 2025 ARC vs PLC gets paid at the higher rate 
• Farm bill vote update and what got left out 
for$25 a month,$250 a year, you get the whole suite. 
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