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We break down fresh farm aid proposals from both parties, the real stakes of year‑round E15, and how RFS and 45Z could reset corn and soy demand. We also unpack WASDE surprises, cattle volatility, Brazil’s beef push, and a Canada–China canola thaw.

• GOP plan to expand Farmer Bridge Assistance and include prevent plant acres
• Democrat framework tying farm and family relief with broader eligibility
• Specialty crop and sugar sector pain and proposed targeted support
• Higher USDA loan limits to ease access to credit
• SCOTUS timing on tariff authority and market risk
• China–Canada trade swap and canola tariff cuts
• WASDE recap: harvested acres, carryout, and export gaps
• Year‑round E15 odds and ethanol demand implications
• RFS 2026–27 signals and RIN sourcing debate
• USMCA leverage, likely extension, and North American interdependence
• Brazil maxes U.S. beef quota amid strong demand
• Cattle selloff drivers and screw worm rumor reality check
• Silver’s surge as a lesson in leverage and emotion

Like and subscribe. Go to www.agbull.com for Jim’s articles and our premium content. Come see us at Booth 2312, CatalCon 2026, Nashville, February 3rd through 5th

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We set the table for a high-stakes USDA report that could reset corn’s balance sheet while we track the real levers of demand: E15, ethanol octane, and 45Z. Along the way, we unpack rates, USMCA, trade rulings, cattle supply constraints, and new dietary guidelines that tilt toward protein.

• Corn yield revisions and feed use as key price drivers
• Soybeans steady, wheat following corn rather than leading
• Fertilizer costs and tighter credit squeezing margins
• Ethanol as fastest demand lever with year-round E15
• 45Z timing for sustainable aviation fuel tax credits
• USMCA’s role in corn exports to Canada and Mexico
• Interest rate outlook, CPI data, and FSA loan options
• SCOTUS trade authority case and tariff alternatives
• Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia risks and sanctions spillovers
• Screw worm, border constraints, and firm beef prices
• Dietary guidelines favoring protein and full-fat dairy
• Minnesota politics, fraud concerns, and budget strain

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A U.S. move in Venezuela reshapes energy flows, raises the global risk premium, and sends clear signals to Cuba, China, and Russia, while a tightening U.S. cattle supply collides with screw-worm containment and no fixed border reopening timeline. Farmers get bridge payments based on modeled losses, with larger per-acre support where multi-year margins bled the most.

• Why Venezuelan heavy crude and Gulf refining capacity matter
• How gold reserves, oil grades, and risk premiums shift pricing
• Signals to Cuba, China, and Russia from the policy pivot
• Screw-worm cases nearing Texas and biosecurity benchmarks
• Cattle supply cuts, packer strain, and beef price pressure
• Farm Bridge per-acre rates and eligibility limits
• Why rice, cotton, and peanuts score higher support
• State-level payout concentration and timing to February
• ARC/PLC expectations later this year and cash flow planning
• Using odd signals like the Pizza Indicator to manage risk

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We sprint through a year where metals spiked, bonds bristled, and policy moved markets as much as weather. We map the big shifts in grains, cattle, inputs, biofuels, trade, and the politics of food prices, then lay out what could drive demand in 2026.

• stocks rising while bonds flag risk
• silver surge and China’s export controls
• corn buoyed by exports despite big crops
• soybeans pressured by Brazil and timing
• wheat capped by global stocks
• cotton weakened on China demand
• cattle cycle tightness and shock events
• hog inventories tamping prices
• bird flu and vaccine trade implications
• sticky food inflation as political fuel
• SNAP fights and affordability fault lines
• GLP-1 drugs shifting sugar and alcohol demand
• MAHA focus on ultra-processed foods
• USDA reorg and service capacity strain
• input costs squeezing margins and machinery slowdown
• RFS, E-15, and 45Z delays clouding biofuels
• rail merger bid and logistics uncertainty
• rural healthcare costs and ACA credits
• labor reform tensions around H2A and year-round needs
• WOTUS reset pushing oversight to states
• OB3 tax permanence shaping farm planning
• cannabis reclassification and rural economics
• structural policy forces redefining ag beyond cycles
• pivot to domestic utilization for durable demand

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We walk through the real signals under today’s commodity markets, from U.S. and global ending stocks to why corn and soy picked up acres despite lean margins. Then we map where acres will actually shift in 2026 and share a practical framework for risk, insurance, and contribution margin.

• U.S. ending stocks measured in acres across 13 crops and why 40 million is a headwind but not a glut
• World ex‑China stocks tightening and what that means for tradable supply
• Why corn and soy gained acres as wheat and cotton weakened
• How crop insurance changes dryland decisions in the Plains
• The soybean‑corn ratio at 2.36 and its 2.2 million‑acre swing per 0.1 move
• Expected shifts from the Great Plains and Dakotas to the Delta
• Planning the final 20% of rotation with live budgets
• Operating margin leverage and stronger risk management with ARC, PLC, SCO and ECO

At the beginning of the year, these shows will be just for premium clients, people who are clients of Ag Bull Trading and Ag Bull Media 

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We dig into tight cattle supplies, a slow, science-led reopening of the Mexico border, and why beef prices stay sticky while soybeans slide. We map out where policy could lift margins in 2026, from E-15 and 45Z to farm aid timing and ACA subsidies. 
 
• lighter-than-expected placements and persistent cattle tightness 
• phased screwworm testing with three inspections in Mexico and one in the US 
• beef prices stay firm in CPI while electricity costs weigh on households 
• China soybean purchases progress toward 12 MMT commitment 
• soybean competitiveness hinges on tariff relief versus Brazil 
• inflation easing shifts focus to unemployment and Fed cuts 
• per-acre FBA estimates with soybean relief lagging the hurt 
• SDRP phase one top-ups coming later; phase two data issues 
• year-round E-15 momentum and California’s early step 
• 45Z, RFS, and domestic demand as price catalysts for corn and soy 
• ACA subsidy extension pressure for rural families 
• specialty crops and sugar losses signal need for more aid 
• Supreme Court tariff ruling and 2026 market implications 
 
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We unpack why feedlot placements keep falling, how heavier carcass weights mask some supply tightness, and where 2025 prices could land if demand stays steady. We also cut through noise on imports, the Mexico border shift, and dairy buyout rumors with history and context.

• November placements lower and annual totals sharply down
• 2025 fed cattle supplies likely tighter than 2024
• Demand steady as baseline risk, not a driver lower
• Heavier carcass weights boost output per head
• Front‑end supply recalculated for longer days on feed
• Argentina small, Brazil moderate import growth
• Mexico shifts from feeder exports toward feeding at home
• Cow culling falls, herd transition to slow growth
• Dairy buyout history and low odds of a shock today
• Practical read on prices, leverage, and risk

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We unpack the new farmer “bridge” aid program, the real funding source behind it, and why the math still falls short for many crops. Along the way we track rate cuts, border and water moves, USMCA signals, and China’s soybean timeline that could reshape 2026.

• travel takeaways from rice, wheat, cattle and peanut country
• India rice dumping pressure and White House response
• FBA design, payment estimates and February timing
• why CCC funds it, not tariffs
• specialty crop squeeze including sugar losses
• FSA staffing limits and delivery risks
• potash sanctions shift and fertilizer outlook
• Mexico water deliveries under the 1944 treaty
• plant closures, cattle cycle and demand
• Fed cuts, dot plot and financing costs
• USMCA tilt toward bilateral fixes
• SAF 45Z uncertainty and blender credit bridge
• ACA subsidy debate and farm family coverage
• China soybean buys, marketing-year logic and seasonality
• record ag trade deficit, ethanol and rice bright spots
• path to stability in 2026 and tariff de-escalation hopes

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We sit down with Rachel “Iowa Farm Mama” Fishback to explore how a pandemic pivot led to Pride of Pork, why TikTok makes farms feel close, and what the economics look like from rust-hit beans to double-cost hog barns. We trade notes on DIY media, clear audio, and why thin relief checks don’t match uneven pain across the countryside.

• launching Pride of Pork and pork industry news on Acres TV
• why casual video builds trust and reach
• iPhone vs cameras, confidence over perfection
• audio quality as the non‑negotiable for podcasts
• DIY media versus old news gatekeepers
• yields, soybean rust pressure and prices at harvest
• running older equipment and auction strategy
• aid math, basis differences and fairness
• consolidation in pork and rising barn costs
• health insurance strain on farm families
• how to watch on Acres TV and follow on TikTok

If you're out there and you're in the hog business, drop a comment down below. How much more is it expensive to build a hog building than it was five, six years ago?

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We test the “golden age” claim against data on trend yields, usage, margins, and policy. Corn usage improves while soybean demand stays soft, and tighter operating margins force sharper risk management into 2026.

• Corn yields modestly above trend, not extreme
• Corn usage climbs above trend, supportive tone
• Soybean yields mid-pack with weak export story
• Rare overlap of big crop and high price
• South America hedging pressure on beans
• Contribution margins flat despite higher revenue
• Higher operating leverage raises cash flow risk
• Practical marketing and insurance priorities
• Limits of ad hoc payments and equity gaps
• ARC/PLC timing and cash flow planning
• Upcoming AEI.ag webinar and travel

AEI.ag is where you can find all of our content. We have a premium set of articles. We have our freemium newsletter as well. We have an upcoming webinar where we're gonna be my business partner and I are gonna be breaking down our outlook for the farm economy, really focused on management lessons that producers can implement, especially if they have a tight margin outlook for 2026.

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Thank you, Tommy G