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We unpack how year-round E15, RFS mandates, and the pending 45Z rules could finally tilt U.S. agriculture toward stronger domestic demand, while a hawkish-leaning Fed pick and a surging dollar ripple through grains, metals, and exports. We also track USMCA maneuvering, right-to-repair momentum, and a practical path to manage risk into spring.

• Year-round E15 path in Congress and what it means for corn demand
• Treasury’s 45Z guidance prospects and crush-for-oil economics
• FOMC hold, Kevin Warsh nomination, and rate-cut odds
• Dollar strength, metals shock, and spillovers into grains
• USDA trade deficit trends and why domestic use matters
• USMCA timelines, EV workarounds, and North American leverage
• Right-to-repair signals on DEF systems and downtime risk
• ECO and SCO insurance math for spring acreage battles
• Ten near-term positives for farm cash flow and demand

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A winter storm, a metals rally, and a political stall on E15 collide with a surprise export surge and a fresh farm-aid bridge, shaping a volatile but opportunity-rich setup for ag. We share why China’s buying now, how E15 still has a path, and the realistic timeline for relief.

• studio launch, premium updates, and travel plans
• storm impacts on energy, logistics, and livestock marketing
• E15 blocked for now, study council formed, next legislative vehicle likely supplemental
• Trump’s Iowa visit and ethanol plant optics as market signal
• farm aid bridge, Title I timing, and likely top-up payments
• defending farm aid within the broader subsidy landscape
• Greenland geopolitics, Canada tensions, and safe-haven flows
• China’s 12 MMT soybean buys and weekly export highs
• screwworm safeguards, cattle on feed data, market reaction
• House passes all FY2026 bills, Senate timing, shutdown odds
• Fed hold likely, potential Powell successor, market read-through
• rail brake risks in extreme cold and retail stockouts
• Klobuchar’s potential move and Senate Ag implications
• USDA portal for foreign farmland tracking
• restoring prevent plant buy-up pressure
• fertilizer tariffs’ cost impact and Canada trade links
• food price outlook, beef tightness, egg decline, sticky services
• eight reasons for cautious optimism into spring

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We break down fresh farm aid proposals from both parties, the real stakes of year‑round E15, and how RFS and 45Z could reset corn and soy demand. We also unpack WASDE surprises, cattle volatility, Brazil’s beef push, and a Canada–China canola thaw.

• GOP plan to expand Farmer Bridge Assistance and include prevent plant acres
• Democrat framework tying farm and family relief with broader eligibility
• Specialty crop and sugar sector pain and proposed targeted support
• Higher USDA loan limits to ease access to credit
• SCOTUS timing on tariff authority and market risk
• China–Canada trade swap and canola tariff cuts
• WASDE recap: harvested acres, carryout, and export gaps
• Year‑round E15 odds and ethanol demand implications
• RFS 2026–27 signals and RIN sourcing debate
• USMCA leverage, likely extension, and North American interdependence
• Brazil maxes U.S. beef quota amid strong demand
• Cattle selloff drivers and screw worm rumor reality check
• Silver’s surge as a lesson in leverage and emotion

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We set the table for a high-stakes USDA report that could reset corn’s balance sheet while we track the real levers of demand: E15, ethanol octane, and 45Z. Along the way, we unpack rates, USMCA, trade rulings, cattle supply constraints, and new dietary guidelines that tilt toward protein.

• Corn yield revisions and feed use as key price drivers
• Soybeans steady, wheat following corn rather than leading
• Fertilizer costs and tighter credit squeezing margins
• Ethanol as fastest demand lever with year-round E15
• 45Z timing for sustainable aviation fuel tax credits
• USMCA’s role in corn exports to Canada and Mexico
• Interest rate outlook, CPI data, and FSA loan options
• SCOTUS trade authority case and tariff alternatives
• Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia risks and sanctions spillovers
• Screw worm, border constraints, and firm beef prices
• Dietary guidelines favoring protein and full-fat dairy
• Minnesota politics, fraud concerns, and budget strain

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A U.S. move in Venezuela reshapes energy flows, raises the global risk premium, and sends clear signals to Cuba, China, and Russia, while a tightening U.S. cattle supply collides with screw-worm containment and no fixed border reopening timeline. Farmers get bridge payments based on modeled losses, with larger per-acre support where multi-year margins bled the most.

• Why Venezuelan heavy crude and Gulf refining capacity matter
• How gold reserves, oil grades, and risk premiums shift pricing
• Signals to Cuba, China, and Russia from the policy pivot
• Screw-worm cases nearing Texas and biosecurity benchmarks
• Cattle supply cuts, packer strain, and beef price pressure
• Farm Bridge per-acre rates and eligibility limits
• Why rice, cotton, and peanuts score higher support
• State-level payout concentration and timing to February
• ARC/PLC expectations later this year and cash flow planning
• Using odd signals like the Pizza Indicator to manage risk

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We sprint through a year where metals spiked, bonds bristled, and policy moved markets as much as weather. We map the big shifts in grains, cattle, inputs, biofuels, trade, and the politics of food prices, then lay out what could drive demand in 2026.

• stocks rising while bonds flag risk
• silver surge and China’s export controls
• corn buoyed by exports despite big crops
• soybeans pressured by Brazil and timing
• wheat capped by global stocks
• cotton weakened on China demand
• cattle cycle tightness and shock events
• hog inventories tamping prices
• bird flu and vaccine trade implications
• sticky food inflation as political fuel
• SNAP fights and affordability fault lines
• GLP-1 drugs shifting sugar and alcohol demand
• MAHA focus on ultra-processed foods
• USDA reorg and service capacity strain
• input costs squeezing margins and machinery slowdown
• RFS, E-15, and 45Z delays clouding biofuels
• rail merger bid and logistics uncertainty
• rural healthcare costs and ACA credits
• labor reform tensions around H2A and year-round needs
• WOTUS reset pushing oversight to states
• OB3 tax permanence shaping farm planning
• cannabis reclassification and rural economics
• structural policy forces redefining ag beyond cycles
• pivot to domestic utilization for durable demand

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We walk through the real signals under today’s commodity markets, from U.S. and global ending stocks to why corn and soy picked up acres despite lean margins. Then we map where acres will actually shift in 2026 and share a practical framework for risk, insurance, and contribution margin.

• U.S. ending stocks measured in acres across 13 crops and why 40 million is a headwind but not a glut
• World ex‑China stocks tightening and what that means for tradable supply
• Why corn and soy gained acres as wheat and cotton weakened
• How crop insurance changes dryland decisions in the Plains
• The soybean‑corn ratio at 2.36 and its 2.2 million‑acre swing per 0.1 move
• Expected shifts from the Great Plains and Dakotas to the Delta
• Planning the final 20% of rotation with live budgets
• Operating margin leverage and stronger risk management with ARC, PLC, SCO and ECO

At the beginning of the year, these shows will be just for premium clients, people who are clients of Ag Bull Trading and Ag Bull Media 

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We dig into tight cattle supplies, a slow, science-led reopening of the Mexico border, and why beef prices stay sticky while soybeans slide. We map out where policy could lift margins in 2026, from E-15 and 45Z to farm aid timing and ACA subsidies. 
 
• lighter-than-expected placements and persistent cattle tightness 
• phased screwworm testing with three inspections in Mexico and one in the US 
• beef prices stay firm in CPI while electricity costs weigh on households 
• China soybean purchases progress toward 12 MMT commitment 
• soybean competitiveness hinges on tariff relief versus Brazil 
• inflation easing shifts focus to unemployment and Fed cuts 
• per-acre FBA estimates with soybean relief lagging the hurt 
• SDRP phase one top-ups coming later; phase two data issues 
• year-round E-15 momentum and California’s early step 
• 45Z, RFS, and domestic demand as price catalysts for corn and soy 
• ACA subsidy extension pressure for rural families 
• specialty crops and sugar losses signal need for more aid 
• Supreme Court tariff ruling and 2026 market implications 
 
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We unpack why feedlot placements keep falling, how heavier carcass weights mask some supply tightness, and where 2025 prices could land if demand stays steady. We also cut through noise on imports, the Mexico border shift, and dairy buyout rumors with history and context.

• November placements lower and annual totals sharply down
• 2025 fed cattle supplies likely tighter than 2024
• Demand steady as baseline risk, not a driver lower
• Heavier carcass weights boost output per head
• Front‑end supply recalculated for longer days on feed
• Argentina small, Brazil moderate import growth
• Mexico shifts from feeder exports toward feeding at home
• Cow culling falls, herd transition to slow growth
• Dairy buyout history and low odds of a shock today
• Practical read on prices, leverage, and risk

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We unpack the new farmer “bridge” aid program, the real funding source behind it, and why the math still falls short for many crops. Along the way we track rate cuts, border and water moves, USMCA signals, and China’s soybean timeline that could reshape 2026.

• travel takeaways from rice, wheat, cattle and peanut country
• India rice dumping pressure and White House response
• FBA design, payment estimates and February timing
• why CCC funds it, not tariffs
• specialty crop squeeze including sugar losses
• FSA staffing limits and delivery risks
• potash sanctions shift and fertilizer outlook
• Mexico water deliveries under the 1944 treaty
• plant closures, cattle cycle and demand
• Fed cuts, dot plot and financing costs
• USMCA tilt toward bilateral fixes
• SAF 45Z uncertainty and blender credit bridge
• ACA subsidy debate and farm family coverage
• China soybean buys, marketing-year logic and seasonality
• record ag trade deficit, ethanol and rice bright spots
• path to stability in 2026 and tariff de-escalation hopes

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Thank you, Tommy G