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We track a cascading week where a grinding shutdown hits flights and the economy, China’s soybean pledges collide with tariff math, and a Justice Department probe into meat packers meets a looming border reopening that could reshape beef supply. Markets swing on headlines as EPA biofuel exemptions, fertilizer policy shifts, and fresh crop data set the next moves while affordability becomes the political keyword.

• shutdown stalemate, filibuster pressure, and GDP risk
• FAA cuts to flights and airline delays
• market rebound into the close despite chaos
• China soybean commitments versus Brazil’s tariff edge
• waiver paths and competitiveness for U.S. beans
• pork’s 47 percent China tariff and lost share
• DOJ probe talk on meat packers and pricing
• screwworm, border closure, and phased reopening plans
• cattle futures at key moving averages and gaps
• EPA small refinery exemptions and soybean oil impact
• phosphate and potash added to critical minerals list
• upcoming WASDE, crop production, and Brazil old-crop estimates
• election takeaways and affordability as the core message
• food stamp payment updates and court actions

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Soybeans break higher while China plays its options, fertilizer refuses to blink, and cattle prices remind us how fast demand can shift. We use charts to frame solar rent math, soybean sales windows, and acreage moves that protect margin into 2026.

• solar lease economics versus row crop revenue
• soybean stock flexibility in China and sourcing paths
• price pop creates disciplined selling windows for beans
• trade aid uncertainty and cash flow planning
• fertilizer share of revenue rising and sticky costs
• acreage tilt toward soybeans as ratios shift
• fall 2025 fertilizer expense outlook and procurement
• cattle volatility, imports, and beef demand strength
• practical risk management with spreads and scale-up sales

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We track a likely end to the shutdown, the return of critical USDA data, and fresh China commitments that pushed soybeans out of a grinding range. Rates, tariffs, and biofuel policy collide with export flows to shape a fragile but improving demand story.

• shutdown pressure from elections and program timing
• partial USDA reopenings and FSA payment backlogs
• NASS crop production and WASDE returning mid November
• Fed uncertainty keeps dollar firm and bonds soft
• soybean rally on China purchase floors and port relief
• tariff tweaks, rare earth delay, and export logistics
• $13bn CCC shift toward trade aid and formula impacts
• biofuels, RFS volumes, and 45Z as domestic demand engine
• cattle volatility, Argentine beef optics, and sticky retail prices
• FMC slide as a warning for inputs and LATAM credit
• basis improvements at PNW and NOLA as demand signal

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We walk through a volatile week where shutdown politics, CPI relief, and global trade headlines moved cattle limit down while grains firmed. From Argentina beef optics to a possible Trump–Xi meeting, we connect DC decisions to cash flow, price risk, and the week ahead.

• shutdown timing linked to ACA premium hikes and party leverage
• partial FSA reopening and roughly 3bn dollars in payments to producers
• CPI at 3 percent yoy, equities rally, odds of another Fed cut rise
• beef inflation stubborn, cattle limit-down driven by optics and fear
• Argentina imports small in scale versus US consumption
• screwworm controls, Mexico cattle border reopening scenarios
• trade cards: 301 probe on China, soy and sorghum deliverables
• Canada talks pause, Japan signals added US commodity buys
• Brazil tariffs, coffee prices, and hamburger flows
• API withdraws support for year-round E15 and seeks reforms
• Senate hearing on seed and fertilizer market power and history
• market highs, debt surge, and risks from congressional dysfunction

Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

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We break down why cash rent outperforms in booms but lags in lean years, and how flex and share contracts shift risk when margins tighten. We map the corn–soybean tilt across regions, unpack China’s stockpiles, and set a practical plan for selling into strength amid missing reports.

• cash rent versus flex and share in lean and boom years
• why averages mislead when planning risk
• regional yield and price ratios steering corn or soybeans
• $150-per-acre swing from local assumptions
• China’s grain stockpiles and trade war shifts
• rallying beans, weaker export signals, tighter basis
• navigating uncertainty without key reports
• AEI’s data-led strategies for 2025–2026
• long-run demand from income growth and energy uses

For the charts mentioned, email: [email protected] or contact AEI at AEI.ag

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We unpack Trump’s push to cool beef prices, the market’s limit-down reaction in feeder cattle, and how policy headlines are whipsawing cash and futures. We track ripple effects from talk of banning Chinese used cooking oil, Argentina’s reemergence in trade flows, and the cash-first logic behind ADM’s free DP on soybeans.

• options floated to temper beef prices and why cattle producers resist 
• volatility from policy signaling, tweets, and import adjustments 
• used cooking oil import talk and renewable diesel feedstock shifts 
• Argentina currency backstops and meat quota implications 
• soybean crush strategy in South America and delayed 45Z clarity 
• basis strength, convergence mechanics, and cash flow priorities 
• free DP as a signal of physical tightness, not a trick 
• rate outlook into 2026 and potential China soybean “deliverables” 
• shutdown impact on reports, CPI priority, and USDA timing 
• land values supported by investors and solar leases 
• bridge aid, reciprocity in trade, and farmer margins under pressure

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We walk through a fast-moving cattle market as futures flip to a premium over cash, spreads widen, and feeders gain leverage to push bids or wait. We also weigh packer margins, rising carcass weights, retail features, and why alternative meats are losing steam.

• Futures premium over cash reshapes feeder incentives
• October–December spread widens and implies stronger mid‑November values
• Government shutdown delays key data and clouds signals
• Carcass weights climb toward records and lift beef tonnage
• Quality grading improves with longer days on feed
• Packer margins turn negative and risk slaughter cuts
• Retail features drive meat case movement and pricing
• Alternative meats struggle against price and clean label trends
• Structural tight supplies favor firm beef prices into 2026

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We map the weekly levels that could steer Amazon, corn futures, and Bitcoin over the next few months, with clear lines, timelines, and trade scenarios. We keep it simple: respect the weekly close, define risk at support and resistance, and let price confirm the plan.

• Amazon’s ceiling at 237.68–242.52 with 266 long-term channel target if broken
• 215.29 as buyable support; 191.36 as Fibonacci objective on breakdown
• Options framing for two to three month and six to twelve month horizons
• Corn’s descending channel top at 428.25; 406.00 as down pivot
• 385.00 as likely target on a weekly close below 406.00
• 481.00 as long-term trend identifier turning 2026 bullish if cleared
• Bitcoin’s rising channel bottom at 108,565; 122,433 as near-term cap
• Breakdown path into the mid to upper 80s on settlement below 108,565
• Cross-asset read-through for SPX and NDX from Amazon and Bitcoin signals
• Where to find daily and weekly research and free resources


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Go to wickedstocks.com for a five-day free trial with SPY, QQQ, Apple, and two stock picks every week.

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We sit down with Jed Sidwell, an Oklahoma State senior and lifelong cattle hand, to unpack why cattle keep climbing, how cheap corn props up feeders, and why headlines from metals to screw worm can jolt prices. Jed shares a clear, calm view of animal health risks, the reality of hedging when markets run, and why direct ties to consumers make this a rare window for ag.

• background in custom forage, feedyards, and show stock 
• lessons from a Nashville brokerage and Series 3 
• metals rally, inflation talk, and job market links 
• corn’s signal for desk activity and risk appetite 
• campus free-speech moments and processing public loss 
• cattle highs, feeder margins, and timing hedges 
• screw worm basics, treatment, and market psychology 
• tools and protocols that keep health risks contained 
• student podcast access and learning resources 
• optimism about direct-to-consumer and ag education

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Gold and silver rip to record highs while crude softens and soybeans slide, and we sort signal from noise across rates, tariffs, and safe-haven flows. Field reports from North Dakota reveal frost, disease, and wind shaping yields as cattle stays firm and DC stalls.

• safe-haven metals surging amid uncertainty
• rate expectations, Fed chatter, and 10-year hover
• crude softening as the real-economy signal
• tariff threats, rare earth tensions, and posturing
• soybean futures pressure vs improving North Dakota basis
• field updates on frost, foliar disease, and high winds
• government shutdown impact on payments and outlook
• cattle strength and screwworm control debate
• risk management with call re-ownership and timing

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