www.agbull.com

We test the “golden age” claim against data on trend yields, usage, margins, and policy. Corn usage improves while soybean demand stays soft, and tighter operating margins force sharper risk management into 2026.

• Corn yields modestly above trend, not extreme
• Corn usage climbs above trend, supportive tone
• Soybean yields mid-pack with weak export story
• Rare overlap of big crop and high price
• South America hedging pressure on beans
• Contribution margins flat despite higher revenue
• Higher operating leverage raises cash flow risk
• Practical marketing and insurance priorities
• Limits of ad hoc payments and equity gaps
• ARC/PLC timing and cash flow planning
• Upcoming AEI.ag webinar and travel

AEI.ag is where you can find all of our content. We have a premium set of articles. We have our freemium newsletter as well. We have an upcoming webinar where we're gonna be my business partner and I are gonna be breaking down our outlook for the farm economy, really focused on management lessons that producers can implement, especially if they have a tight margin outlook for 2026.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We unpack why China’s soybean purchase timeline keeps sliding, how the market is reacting, and who should be accountable. We dig into border biosecurity worries, beef policy levers, the coming Fed move, crop insurance changes, and a likely aid bridge to 2026.

• shifting claims on China’s soybean buys and missing signatures
• soybean futures weakness and market skepticism
• screwworm concerns and quieter agency updates at the border
• cattle rally versus talk of tariff cuts and import levers
• USMCA review signals, Mexico demand, and retaliation risks
• Farm Bill 2.0 delays and SNAP’s dominant share
• E15 year-round push, RFS volumes, and 45Z SAF uncertainty
• crop insurance rule changes and prevent plant buy-up removal
• rumored $12–14bn farmer aid and timing of payments
• high fertilizer costs, planting talk, and cash flow strain

Sign up for premium content this week and I will send you back your $25. If you sign up for the $250, you will instantly get a credit from me for $25. If you sign up for one month for $25, I'll send your $25 back. That is my Christmas gift to you.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Markets open after a CME outage as we track the odds of a December rate cut, soybean sales to China without a signed deal, and the shape of USDA’s bridge aid into 2026. We lay out the stakes on tariffs at the Supreme Court, biofuel rules, E15 delays, and Farm Bill 2.0 politics while cattle find a surprising bounce.

• Fed cut odds and leadership signals
• China soybean buys, enforcement, and price gaps
• USDA aid timing, scope, and funding risks
• Cotton and sorghum outlook with margin stress
• Deere guidance and machinery bottom watch
• India and Canada trade snags
• Food security reporting pause and SNAP recertification talk
• Supreme Court tariff case scenarios
• RFS, RINs, 45Z delays, and year-round E15
• Farm Bill 2.0 vote math and timelines
• Cattle border reopening, packer capacity, and price recovery
• Why Congress must codify to reduce court whiplash

All that for $25 a month. We’re up watching the markets 24 hours a day, so you don’t have to.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We sprint through a volatile week in ag policy: Brazil tariff rollbacks, EU tariff rumors, labor and H‑2A shifts, aid program timing, RFS delays, border reopening signals, a bullish cattle-on-feed report, and breaking news on a Tyson beef plant closure.

• USDA and CFTC reporting cadence returning
• Brazil coffee and beef tariffs lifted to fight food prices
• Potential easing of EU food tariffs and NCBA concerns
• ICE de-emphasizing raids and H‑2A expansion, dairy left out
• Farm losses per acre and aid package design uncertainty
• Disaster program stage two and expected top-up payments
• RFS and RINs timing delays, 45Z uncertainty
• USDA communications balance and need for field listening
• US–Mexico border phased reopening and realistic cattle flows
• Fed cut odds falling and financing risks
• China soy commitments vs competitiveness and history
• Whole milk back to schools boosting dairy sentiment
• New WOTUS proposal reducing federal permitting burdens
• Cattle-on-feed bullish read overshadowed by Tyson closure

If you're enjoying the show, tell a friend about it

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We unpack fresh market data after the government reopens, weigh China’s year-end purchase promises against a looming Supreme Court tariff decision, and pressure-test farm margins as input costs stay stubborn. We also dig into right to repair, sugar beet payment cuts, and what aid might realistically look like.

• government data returning and confidence gaps
• China purchase commitments and trade timing
• emergency tariff authority risk at the Supreme Court
• aid posture versus rising fertilizer and equipment costs
• antitrust attention on fertilizer and equipment markets
• right to repair implications for downtime and cost control
• cattle herd declines versus drought and policy narratives
• dairy herd dynamics and dairy beef revenues
• grain volatility with December options expiry
• sugar beet payment collapse and per-acre losses
• disaster funds progress and appropriations priorities

If you are watching this video, you are a premium subscriber. Now I'm gonna put the audio part out for free. We'll let people listen to it. But if they want to see Mr. Wick's pretty face and my pretty face, they're gonna have to click like and subscribe. $25 a month, $250 annually.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We break down a light-cut USDA report, the surprise weight from “fringe” state yields, and why corn fell while soybeans slipped despite modest changes. We connect Brazil’s growing edge, cotton’s production jump, and lender warnings to policy pivots on tariffs and trade aid.

• Corn production trimmed, carryout still higher
• Fringe states offset I‑state cuts in corn
• Soybean exports ceded to Brazil and Argentina
• CONAB vs USDA gaps on Brazil output
• Cotton yield gains in Texas pressure prices
• Daily sales resume with big Mexico corn buy
• No repeat of a Great Grain Robbery scenario
• Lenders see rising credit stress and equity burn
• Cattle cycle tightness and policy signals
• Rates near 4 percent keep financing costly
• Tariff pivot on non‑produced imports eases inflation
• Trade aid likely, size and timing adjusted

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We unpack the week’s swirl: China’s commitments, a reopened USDA, cattle volatility, a soybean basis snapback, and record corn chatter across the Upper Midwest. Stephen Vaden’s interview frames aid expectations and trade confidence as we look toward fast-moving data and holiday demand.

• China honoring ag purchase commitments and why it matters
• SNAP restart timing and near-term demand signals
• Cattle market volatility and producer risk management
• Screwworm risks and opposition to reopening the border
• Soybean basis recovery in North Dakota and cautious optimism
• Strong local corn yields versus national disease challenges
• Aid payments tied to current market conditions and high inputs

Subscribe to premium, $25 a month, $250 a year, www.agbull.com

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We track a cascading week where a grinding shutdown hits flights and the economy, China’s soybean pledges collide with tariff math, and a Justice Department probe into meat packers meets a looming border reopening that could reshape beef supply. Markets swing on headlines as EPA biofuel exemptions, fertilizer policy shifts, and fresh crop data set the next moves while affordability becomes the political keyword.

• shutdown stalemate, filibuster pressure, and GDP risk
• FAA cuts to flights and airline delays
• market rebound into the close despite chaos
• China soybean commitments versus Brazil’s tariff edge
• waiver paths and competitiveness for U.S. beans
• pork’s 47 percent China tariff and lost share
• DOJ probe talk on meat packers and pricing
• screwworm, border closure, and phased reopening plans
• cattle futures at key moving averages and gaps
• EPA small refinery exemptions and soybean oil impact
• phosphate and potash added to critical minerals list
• upcoming WASDE, crop production, and Brazil old-crop estimates
• election takeaways and affordability as the core message
• food stamp payment updates and court actions

Please click like and subscribe. Tell a friend about this. This video is free and open to the public.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Soybeans break higher while China plays its options, fertilizer refuses to blink, and cattle prices remind us how fast demand can shift. We use charts to frame solar rent math, soybean sales windows, and acreage moves that protect margin into 2026.

• solar lease economics versus row crop revenue
• soybean stock flexibility in China and sourcing paths
• price pop creates disciplined selling windows for beans
• trade aid uncertainty and cash flow planning
• fertilizer share of revenue rising and sticky costs
• acreage tilt toward soybeans as ratios shift
• fall 2025 fertilizer expense outlook and procurement
• cattle volatility, imports, and beef demand strength
• practical risk management with spreads and scale-up sales

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We track a likely end to the shutdown, the return of critical USDA data, and fresh China commitments that pushed soybeans out of a grinding range. Rates, tariffs, and biofuel policy collide with export flows to shape a fragile but improving demand story.

• shutdown pressure from elections and program timing
• partial USDA reopenings and FSA payment backlogs
• NASS crop production and WASDE returning mid November
• Fed uncertainty keeps dollar firm and bonds soft
• soybean rally on China purchase floors and port relief
• tariff tweaks, rare earth delay, and export logistics
• $13bn CCC shift toward trade aid and formula impacts
• biofuels, RFS volumes, and 45Z as domestic demand engine
• cattle volatility, Argentine beef optics, and sticky retail prices
• FMC slide as a warning for inputs and LATAM credit
• basis improvements at PNW and NOLA as demand signal

Subscribe at www.agbull.com for alerts, morning emails, and Wiesemeyer Intel. “Drop a comment: What can we do better? What would you like to see more of?”

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G