www.agbull.com

Farmers face financial hardship as a government shutdown looms while simultaneously promising relief payments through tariff funds known as "Trump Bucks." The situation highlights the dysfunctional relationship between agricultural policy and political gridlock in Washington.

• Government likely to shut down at midnight Tuesday due to lack of agreement on continuing resolution
• Administration proposes using tariff funds for direct farmer payments, but requires congressional approval
• Section 32 funds (30% of tariff revenues) typically used for commodity purchases for nutrition programs
• Cattle markets experienced extreme volatility after comments about potential heifer retention incentives
• Argentina temporarily lowered export taxes, causing China to purchase 35 loads of soybeans
• Basis levels vary widely across regions, from 80 cents under in southern Minnesota to $1.60 under in North Dakota
• Harvest beginning in northern regions with favorable weather and good yield expectations
• Government shutdown would delay all agricultural reports including the upcoming stocks report
• Commodity markets showing potential inflationary signals as gold approaches $4,000 and silver hits $45-46
• Farmers would prefer market-based solutions like year-round E15 rather than direct payments

Sign up for our weekly e-newsletter FarmNut News at rrfn.com for ongoing updates on agricultural policy and markets.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Trade policy tensions create ripple effects across agricultural markets as Trump promises aid while China boycotts U.S. farm products. Secretary Rollins presents a five-part agricultural plan while a potential government shutdown threatens to disrupt essential services.

• Trump promises aid to farmers as a "bridge" until tariff policies take effect, though amount and timing remain unspecified
• Treasury Department's $20 billion bond swap with Argentina inadvertently facilitated China's purchase of 35 vessels of Argentine soybeans instead of American ones
• USDA Secretary Rollins announces $2 billion in "top-up" payments through ECAP, increasing allocation factor from 85% to 99%
• Rollins firmly states no plans for direct payments to the beef cattle industry to avoid market distortion
• Potential government shutdown would allow mandatory farm payments to continue but would prevent October crop production reports
• Input costs remain a major concern with fertilizers up 37%, fuel 32%, labor 47%, and interest payments 73% since 2020
• Food prices continue to rise, particularly beef, adding pressure on consumers and contributing to inflation concerns
• Gold, oil, and agricultural commodities show strength, potentially signaling inflationary pressures ahead

Visit [email protected] to receive Jim's agriculture policy newsletter.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Cattle markets reach unprecedented heights amid rumors of USDA incentives to rebuild herds and growing concerns about screwworm threats near the U.S.-Mexico border. Global grain markets respond to Argentina's elimination of export taxes while farmers in the Northern Plains contend with variable yields and challenging economic conditions.

• Record cattle prices driven by potential USDA heifer retention incentives
• Screwworm threat intensifying with cases increasing 50% south of Mexico border
• LRP insurance offers protection for ranchers navigating volatile markets
• Argentina eliminates export taxes, leading to immediate Chinese soybean purchases
• Spring wheat harvest completed with decent quality in Northern Plains
• Regional variations in crop conditions with wet weather impacting some areas
• Looming government shutdown threatens CCC funding and potential farm payments
• Interest rate cuts providing some relief but agricultural profitability remains challenged
• Gold and silver reaching record highs as alternative investments

For more information on market updates and agricultural news, visit agbull.com or rrfn.com. Follow our podcast on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube for regular insights into agricultural markets.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We're launching a new podcast called "Fat Tuesday" featuring Mike Sands from Nesvik Trading Group, focusing on the unprecedented volatility in cattle markets. The timing couldn't be better as cattle prices reach new highs followed by sharp declines, creating a dynamic environment that demands experienced analysis.

• Mike Sands brings 25+ years of experience from Informa and Sparks Companies
• Mike previously worked as an extension marketing economist in Indiana, Kansas, and Colorado
• The show will provide a "36,000-foot view" of cattle and feeder cattle markets
• Each episode will feature 3-7 PowerPoint slides and live market quotes
• Current cattle market volatility necessitates stronger risk management strategies
• The podcast responds to audience requests for specialized cattle market coverage

Join us weekly as we navigate these historic cattle markets with the expertise that only comes from decades of experience.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

US-China relations show promising signs with a potential trade agreement in the works and Beijing issuing a formal state visit invitation to Trump. South China Morning Post reports final stages of negotiations that could include bulk purchases of American soybeans by year-end.

• Secretary Rollins confirms farmer aid package being considered to address cash flow problems
• Funding options include Commodity Credit Corporation, tariff revenue, and Section 32 funds
• NCGA survey shows 80% of farmers point to a farm crisis with significant economic concerns
• CRP enrollment nearing statutory limit of 27 million acres with 25.8 million currently enrolled
• Supreme Court to hear arguments on Trump's tariff authority beginning November 5
• EPA expected to release ag-friendly Waters of the US definition and re-approve Dicamba with restrictions
• Potential government shutdown could impact agricultural reports and services
• Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points with more cuts expected this year

Email Jim at [email protected] to sign up for his free daily newsletter with comprehensive agricultural policy updates and analysis.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Tommy and Jim analyze the latest USDA crop production report, which shows a surprising planted acreage of nearly 96 million corn acres. Despite yield reductions, this led to increased projected production and complex market reactions.

• Corn prices closed up 10.5 cents despite bearish USDA news, with soybean prices also strengthening
• The cash flow crisis facing farmers in areas without river markets or ethanol plants requires governmental support
• Interest rates are expected to be cut by 25 basis points at the September 17 FOMC meeting, with economists projecting 75 basis points in cuts by year-end
• The Japan trade agreement has been misinterpreted - it doesn't include an additional $8 billion in US farm product purchases
• California's approval of E15 ethanol blends opens a significant market opportunity by 2026
• Regulatory hurdles for US farm equipment manufacturers create higher costs compared to identical equipment sold in South America
• Farm Bill 2.0 may address issues like California's Proposition 12 affecting pork producers
• The second Maha report avoided mentioning pesticides, but concerns remain about upcoming definitions of "ultra-processed foods"

Email Jim Wiesmeyer at [email protected] to receive his free newsletter covering these agricultural issues in greater depth.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Tom Grisafi and Don Wick provide an on-the-ground report from the Big Iron Farm Show, addressing challenging market conditions for farmers while highlighting resources and upcoming speakers at the event.

• Basis levels are "pretty ugly" in the region with a negative $2 basis making even optimistic price projections like $12 beans insufficient for profitability
• Input costs remain stubbornly high despite commodity price decreases, creating a profit squeeze for producers
• Approximately 100 million bushels of grain storage was lost in North Dakota due to a derecho wind event, complicating harvest decisions
• Land values are holding steady despite market challenges, described as experiencing a "soft landing" rather than a crash
• Young farmers face particular challenges entering agriculture, raising concerns about potentially losing another generation from the industry
• The show features panels on weather, tax planning, market outlook, and special appearances including FSA Administrator Bill Beam
• Despite current hardships, farmers maintain generational optimism with a long-term perspective that helps weather difficult periods

Check out all our forum recordings on the Red River Farm Network YouTube channel at RRFN.com, where you can also sign up for our weekly Farm Net News newsletter.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Trade wars and policy shifts create mounting pressure on US agricultural exports, while domestic utilization initiatives offer glimmers of hope for struggling farmers. Congress returns with growing awareness of the cash flow crisis in agriculture, as industry leaders debate the potential need for another economic aid package.

• US agricultural trade deficit widens to $47 billion, with USDA forecasting $41.5 billion for next fiscal year
• China's boycott of US soybeans significantly impacts grain-producing regions like North Dakota
• USMCA talks begin, with Mexico remaining a top export destination despite trade tensions
• California approves E15 ethanol, potentially boosting demand by 600-800 million gallons
• Farm income appears artificially high due to $40 billion in government assistance payments
• RFK Jr.'s food policy initiatives create controversy in congressional hearings
• Japan agrees to increase rice quota by 75% and purchase $8 billion in US agricultural commodities
• US market share in global agricultural trade for key commodities continues declining trend
• Fed expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points on September 17th
• Supreme Court appeal of tariff ruling could have significant implications for trade policy

Contact Jim Wiesemeyer at [email protected] for his free agricultural policy newsletter.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Tom Grisafi and Don Wick discuss a week of significant agricultural developments spanning crop conditions, market movements, and political upheaval. The contrast between potentially record-breaking yields and challenging economics highlights the complex reality facing today's farmers.

• Don's crop tour revealed surprisingly good conditions in northern regions with corn reaching 215 bushels/acre near the Canadian border
• Western North Dakota appears "grass green" when typically burnt up this time of year
• Farmers face storage challenges and poor basis despite good yield potential
• Federal Reserve independence questioned after White House attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook
• Cattle markets continued strong performance while grain markets rebounded despite bearish USDA estimates
• Potential "bridge payment" mentioned by USDA official Steven Vaden to help struggling farmers
• Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford's editorial sounds alarm about farm economy
• Congress returning after recess with "skinny farm bill" potential

Like and subscribe to the Ag Bull podcast—find us everywhere by searching "Ag Bull" with a new website coming in a few weeks.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We tackle the severe cash flow crisis American farmers are experiencing despite billions in government aid. Current assistance programs cover only a fraction of losses, with soybeans facing nearly $2 per bushel shortfalls and aid offsetting just 37%.

• Farmers will need another economic assistance package by year-end through either Congress or USDA
• The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) needs replenishment to function as USDA's financial resource
• Three solutions identified: targeted trade deals, expanded food aid, and developing new uses for crops
• Mexico's screwworm outbreak shows 53% increase since July, now threatening to approach US border
• USDA sending teams to verify containment efforts as ranchers warn Texas infestation could cost $1.8B
• Agricultural exports forecast improved but still showing deficit for third straight year
• New tariffs on India (50%) and Brazil (50%) creating trade tensions and higher beef prices
• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins actively advocating for farmers at cabinet meetings
• Congressional agenda includes appropriations, Farm Bill 2.0, and potential early payments for 2025 crops
• USDA reorganization aims to relocate staff closer to agricultural communities despite DC resistance

Email Jim at [email protected] to subscribe to his daily agricultural policy newsletter.

Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia 

The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube

www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media


E-Mail [email protected]

Thank you, Tommy G